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I figure we might need a thread for April, lol.

Is there anything interesting showing up severe weather wise for Monday that no one has picked up on yet? This includes the OKC metro area for Monday as well. It is just 1 model but does bare watching closely.

Is there anything interesting showing up severe weather wise for Monday that no one has picked up on yet? This includes the OKC metro area for Monday as well. It is just 1 model but does bare watching closely.

Apparently AT is "concerned" according to his facebook.....he said "stay tuned"

Double post...deleted

Apparently AT is "concerned" according to his facebook.....he said "stay tuned"

Aaron Tuttle is first-cousin to Mike "Drive South" Morgan. Both are worthless hysterics hacks and should share a ride in the Dominator some day.

Oh boy, another Tuttle-ism.

Lest we forget:

Emily Sutton called out ?Internet Meteorologist? Aaron Tuttle? | The Lost Ogle (http://www.thelostogle.com/2015/05/18/emily-sutton-called-out-internet-meteorologist-aaron-tuttle/)

Tonight may be a good time to pay close attention to the weather. A number of hi-res models indicate supercells forming around dinnertime this evening and lasting well after dark as they move toward the OKC metro. Tornado threat isn't very high but is nonzero. Some of the higher-res models keep the storms to our south, but a few track them directly through the metro with a significant hail threat. Stay weather aware! :)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cfr5vacUUAENJAw.jpg

I am out of town so haven't been able to update any. But I will be back later today and get some nowcasting in.

Looking at basic data. Loko is right on above. Except I would put the tornado threat higher, especially just at sunset in SW OK. Maintained isolated supercells into OKC is less likely, but it is def in need of watching. Hail will be a likely threat.

Aaron Tuttle is first-cousin to Mike "Drive South" Morgan. Both are worthless hysterics hacks and should share a ride in the Dominator some day.

I said that, tongue in cheek.

Tonight may be a good time to pay close attention to the weather. A number of hi-res models indicate supercells forming around dinnertime this evening and lasting well after dark as they move toward the OKC metro. Tornado threat isn't very high but is nonzero. Some of the higher-res models keep the storms to our south, but a few track them directly through the metro with a significant hail threat. Stay weather aware! :)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cfr5vacUUAENJAw.jpg

This changed pretty quickly. I was looking at the prediction last night and it had the highest risk area farther north and east.

Watch county notification for watches 78/79
national weather service norman ok
513 pm cdt sun apr 10 2016

okc011-015-017-019-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-067-071-073-
075-081-083-087-093-099-103-109-119-123-125-129-133-137-141-149-
txc009-077-485-110300-
/o.new.koun.sv.a.0079.160410t2213z-160411t0300z/

the national weather service has issued severe thunderstorm watch
79 in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening for the following areas

in oklahoma this watch includes 31 counties

in central oklahoma

canadian cleveland grady
kingfisher lincoln logan
mcclain oklahoma payne
pottawatomie

in east central oklahoma

pontotoc seminole

in northern oklahoma

garfield kay noble

in northwest oklahoma

blaine dewey major

in southern oklahoma

carter garvin jefferson
murray stephens

in southwest oklahoma

caddo comanche cotton
kiowa tillman

in western oklahoma

custer roger mills wa****a

in texas this watch includes 3 counties

in northern texas

archer clay wichita

this includes the cities of...ada...anadarko...archer city...
Ardmore...blackwell...blanchard...burns flat...chandler...
Cheyenne...chickasha...clinton...concho...cordell. ..davenport...
Davis...duncan...el reno...enid...fairview...frederick...geary...
Guthrie...hammon...hennessey...henrietta...hinton. ..hobart...
Holliday...kingfisher...lakeside city...lawton...leedey...
Lindsay...meeker...moore...mustang...newcastle...n orman...
Okarche...okeene...oklahoma city...pauls valley...perry...
Ponca city...prague...purcell...ringling...ryan...scotla nd...
Seiling...seminole...sentinel...shawnee...sheppard afb...snyder...
Stillwater...stroud...sulphur...taloga...temple... tuttle...vici...
Walters...watonga...waurika...weatherford...wellst on...wewoka...
Wichita falls...wynnewood and yukon.

Severe weather statement
national weather service norman ok
533 pm cdt sun apr 10 2016

okc065-txc197-487-102300-
/o.con.koun.sv.w.0054.000000t0000z-160410t2300z/
jackson ok-hardeman tx-wilbarger tx-
533 pm cdt sun apr 10 2016

...a severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 600 pm cdt
for southwestern jackson...east central hardeman and northwestern
wilbarger counties...

At 531 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest of
olustee...moving north at 50 mph. Another severe thunderstorm was located
9 miles northwest of chillicothe moving north northeast at 45 mph.

Hazard...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

Source...radar indicated.

Impact...hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs...siding...and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Quanah...chillicothe...olustee...eldorado...elmer and odell.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

Mostly stabilized air in C OK now. Perhaps a higher wind threat overnight as complex in TX PH moves out. Far Southern OK still under big gun.

Enjoy this awesome rain!

What were the rainfall totals from last night? A good couple of inches maybe?

What were the rainfall totals from last night? A good couple of inches maybe?

Mesonet | 24-hour Rainfall Accumulation (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/24_hr_rainfall_accumulation/rainfall)

My house, not far from Plaza Mayor (ex-Crossroads Mall), picked up approximately 1.1" of rain overnight. It was a good soaking!

Another system coming through N TX overnight tonight. Best chances for rain will be south of I-40. But depending on track, could still see some light to moderate rain north of that line. Nothing severe, looks like just good old fashioned rain.

No more with the NWS yelling in caps: Quote

New forecast software is allowing the agency to break out of the days when weather reports were sent by “the wire” over teleprinters, which were basically typewriters hooked up to telephone lines. Teleprinters only allowed the use of upper case letters, and while the hardware and software used for weather forecasting has advanced over the last century, this holdover was carried into modern times since some customers still used the old equipment.


National Weather Service will stop using all caps in its forecasts | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (http://www.noaa.gov/national-weather-service-will-stop-using-all-caps-its-forecasts)

Massive storm system this weekend. Could see beginning effects early Saturday morning, then the big show begins Saturday night and during the day Sunday. Right now projections are for 3-4" over most of the western half of OK. With a narrow swath of 6"+ possible somewhere in the state.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016041412/gfs_apcpn_us_31.png

Looks like I should finally take the time to put down fertilizer and seed on my lawn this weekend.

Looks like I should finally take the time to put down fertilizer and seed on my lawn this weekend.

If we get high amounts of rain it may just wash away.

My buddy wants to move some of his girlfriend's stuff on Sunday, midday. I'm thinking that's not gonna happen!

Flood watches issued for western half of OK. This is mainly for Saturday evening through Sunday.

It will be waves of rain and thundershowers, so watch the radars for any outdoor plans.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.flood.gif

What is the estimated time the metro should start seeing precip?

Rain is developing right now in Western OK. This will continue to fill in and slowly push east.

I would put steady rain in OKC around 11pm-midnight.

Rain is developing right now in Western OK. This will continue to fill in and slowly push east.

I would put steady rain in OKC around 11pm-midnight.

Thank you.

Well the rain is having a hard time pushing east. Just now coming into western sides of the metro @ 1:30am.

I concur^^

Will there be another batch coming in tonight or are we done with the heavy rain?

Will there be another batch coming in tonight or are we done with the heavy rain?

100% of heavy rain tonight, according to the national weather service.

What are the long-term forecasts looking like going into May? Are we looking at another active, very wet May like last year or do you think it will dry out? Or, is it too early to tell?

Another batch tonight. Models put the heaviest rain over C OK around 10pm.

I know it's early but what do you think about Sunday-Tuesday of next week?

Flooding concerns potentially going up over the next couple days as models are leaning towards more rounds of rain.

Looking ahead, we dry out after one last blow late Wednesday night. Then severe chances come in late weekend into early next week. Too early to call, but right now it looks like Western OK Sunday. And Central OK on Monday.

Sunshine and general solar radiation coming out over most of the C OK area will create some decent energy and raise temperatures for a wave of storms that is currently developing out of the TX PH.

Flooding threat will be high this evening. Especially across C and S OK.

I'm curious about Sunday-Tuesday and whether or not it has potential to be a classic high-end setup for Oklahoma, with a stationary front leading to three straight days of tornadic supercells. From what I've seen, we will have a negative-tilt trough and decent instability.

Yet another great thing about living downtown...

I can run over to the Arts Festival after work then high-tail it home super quick if it starts to pour.

Need my Indian taco fix!

I'm curious about Sunday-Tuesday and whether or not it has potential to be a classic high-end setup for Oklahoma, with a stationary front leading to three straight days of tornadic supercells. From what I've seen, we will have a negative-tilt trough and decent instability.

Some of the OKC TV weather folks are starting to talk about a Tornado threat… Right now it sounds like Tuesday could be significant.

Some of the OKC TV weather folks are starting to talk about a Tornado threat… Right now it sounds like Tuesday could be significant.

Yeah the different TV stations have different forecasts, some having a threat on Tuesday and others focused more on Sunday and Monday. KOCO is usually the most ominous and they are predicting Sunday and Monday but have nothing for Tuesday. I think it's best to keep an eye on the SPC forecasts. This far out much could change.

I really don't like Mike Morgan's 1-10 tornado threat level. It's not much different from the Weather Channel's TORCon and doesn't serve any useful purpose other than to scare people. He has Tuesday at a 6 for tornado risk.

I really don't like Mike Morgan's 1-10 tornado threat level. It's not much different from the Weather Channel's TORCon and doesn't serve any useful purpose other than to scare people. He has Tuesday at a 6 for tornado risk.
Mike MORGASM is a fear monger.

I really don't like Mike Morgan's 1-10 tornado threat level. It's not much different from the Weather Channel's TORCon and doesn't serve any useful purpose other than to scare people. He has Tuesday at a 6 for tornado risk.

It is really silly for anyone to try assign a probability this far out for tornados. Especially if he was talking about a specific part of Oklahoma. There are several questions about next week's potential setup.

I really don't like Mike Morgan's 1-10 tornado threat level. It's not much different from the Weather Channel's TORCon and doesn't serve any useful purpose other than to scare people. He has Tuesday at a 6 for tornado risk.
I disagree…. This is just one more tool that can be used to inform most people.

I believe people need to be informed on the likely severity and of threats nature.
There are many people who are out and about who may watch the weather but can’t hear the sound……These visual graphics do a better job of explaining the risk threats for Tornadoes than the old risk maps.

I don’t believe very many people are actually scared by them and if they are they need to either become better educated or just simply change the channel if they don't like them!
I believe they are helpful for the vast majority or the Weather Channel and others would not still be using them. They could save lives?

I like the tornado threat level visual graphics a lot and hope they keep giving them.

As to doing this a week out, that’s a different story IMHO

As to doing this a week out, that’s a different story IMHO

Yeah, there is too much still in question regarding next week's severe setup to be hyping a "TORCon" this early. From everything I am seeing, it has potential to be a very high-end setup, one of "those" days in Oklahoma, but being almost a week out, things might not come together in that way. I remember last year, we were three days away from what appeared to be a high-end day shaping up but as we got closer the threat dissipated and it ended up being a bust. Meanwhile you had people like Reed Timmer saying to prepare for an outbreak of historic proportions.

David Payne knows what's up. He said they're just keeping an eye on next Tuesday. He's not making a fuss about it now.

I really don't like Mike Morgan's 1-10 tornado threat level. It's not much different from the Weather Channel's TORCon and doesn't serve any useful purpose other than to scare people. He has Tuesday at a 6 for tornado risk.

He has severe weather as a 6. Tornado was a 3.

Here is what the Storm Prediction Center had posted this morning regarding the extended outlooks for next week.

A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
INTO THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 4 INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY/DAY 5...THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND RETURN MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS BUT DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. ON MONDAY/DAY 6...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH SOLUTIONS MOVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY/DAY 7. THE MODELS
SUGGEST A DRYLINE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO SHOWS THE EXIT
REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN ENOUGH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY TO ADD A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTH
TX...OK...SRN KS...NW AR AND FAR SW MO FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW SOME VARIANCE WITH THE ECMWF EJECTING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER KEEPING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS PROBABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SCNTRL U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL GO PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

I don't have a problem with there long term outlooks. If it scares you then good, a lot of people didn't listen to the warnings in Joplin a few years back and look what happened. I'd rather people get scared and worried and there be a bust than people not caring or thinking anything will happen and a lot of lives be lost. Anyways, just pay attention that there is a chance of ALL modes of severe weather next week.

The SPC at the NWS has issued a Day 7 15% outlook which usually doesn't happen a whole lot.

Day 7 is for next Tuesday,

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200851
SPC AC 200851

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
INTO THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 4 INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY/DAY 5...THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND RETURN MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS BUT DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. ON MONDAY/DAY 6...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH SOLUTIONS MOVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY/DAY 7. THE MODELS
SUGGEST A DRYLINE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO SHOWS THE EXIT
REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN ENOUGH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY TO ADD A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTH
TX...OK...SRN KS...NW AR AND FAR SW MO FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW SOME VARIANCE WITH THE ECMWF EJECTING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER KEEPING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS PROBABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SCNTRL U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL GO PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

..BROYLES.. 04/20/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

I'd rather have long term "scary" outlooks than no warnings at all. That's what you live with in earthquake country. Bet you the Japanese and Ecuadorians would have loved to have a head's up on what they dealt with last week. These forecasts help you get prepared practically and mentally, which I find helpful actually.

Here is what the Storm Prediction Center had posted this morning regarding the extended outlooks for next week.

A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
INTO THE MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 4 INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY/DAY 5...THE ECMWF AND GFS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND RETURN MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS BUT DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. ON MONDAY/DAY 6...BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH SOLUTIONS MOVE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY/DAY 7. THE MODELS
SUGGEST A DRYLINE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO SHOWS THE EXIT
REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN ENOUGH RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY TO ADD A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTH
TX...OK...SRN KS...NW AR AND FAR SW MO FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 8...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW SOME VARIANCE WITH THE ECMWF EJECTING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER KEEPING THE
INSTABILITY AXIS BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS PROBABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SCNTRL U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY...WILL GO PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

Where did the bolded sentence come from? Did the SPC edit it out? If anything they would say this about Tuesday since this is the day that they are currently confident in highlighting.

Soonerman has already pointed it out, but the SPC very rarely will ever issue actual elevated risk assessments even 4 days out. One of the last times I can remember a painted risk area in the 7-8 day time frame was days surrounding April 14, 2012 which was the specific event date. I remember that week vividly as it was the second time in history a High Risk was issued on the Day 2 Outlook, and the first time it was ever issued on the initial Day 2 Outlook.

In case you were wondering how that pretty much unprecedented high-risk day played out:
There was multiple long-lived tornadic supercells in KS and included fatalities. Many in OK considered that day a bust as there was only a thin line of storms in the southern parts of the risk area that included populated areas in C OK. Only NW OK got supercell storms that specific day; the day before (April 13) C OK had several weak tornadoes, including one through Norman.

So it goes to show you, that even in the past, an unheard of 45% hatched area for tornadoes was issued for C and N OK, and the only tornado that day was in NW OK, outside of the highest risk.

These things aren't in place to be perfect, they are there to make you aware - that day everyone knew the potential of what could develop, and we got lucky that nothing happened to the main body of OK.

I disagree…. This is just one more tool that can be used to inform most people.

I believe people need to be informed on the likely severity and of threats nature.



The information should be *realistic* information about *realistic* threats, not hysterical fear-mongering ratings-induced garbage a week or more in advance. That's Morgan's stock in trade.



There are many people who are out and about who may watch the weather but can’t hear the sound……These visual graphics do a better job of explaining the risk threats for Tornadoes than the old risk maps.


And the hypemasters take every advantage of those idiotic long-term maps by painting them in bright, frightening colors and assigning scary "risk numbers" to them that have this illusion of mathematics and science tied to them only to engender the very kind of fear that is intended to generate the "information dependency" that organizations like NWS are trying to stop.



I don’t believe very many people are actually scared by them and if they are they need to either become better educated or just simply change the channel if they don't like them!
I believe they are helpful for the vast majority or the Weather Channel and others would not still be using them. They could save lives?


The FCC, back in the day, was chartered to foster the use of public airwaves for the public good. Hysteria mongering to drive ratings thinly couched in the name of "saving lives" is tantamount to yelling "fire!" in a crowded theater. The "saving lives" mantra was actually used last year to defend OKC's ridiculous tornado siren warning policy that caused pointless fear and anxiety for people when sirens where fired in areas that were under absolutely no threat of tornadic activity. Fortunately, we all know that cooler heads prevailed and good sense was brought to bear on that situation. No such good sense seems to be in the offing for TV weather hysterics. Doing these charts and scary warnings so they can go out and do a video of some poor, frightened, elderly lady saying "Mike Morgan saved my life" is an infuriating abuse of the public trust.



I like the tornado threat level visual graphics a lot and hope they keep giving them.

As to doing this a week out, that’s a different story IMHO

So long as they keep drawing in the viewers like moths to a flame, they'll surely keep doing them, perpetuating misinformation and engendering fear.

At least we agree on the week-in-advance issue.

I'd rather have long term "scary" outlooks than no warnings at all. That's what you live with in earthquake country. Bet you the Japanese and Ecuadorians would have loved to have a head's up on what they dealt with last week. These forecasts help you get prepared practically and mentally, which I find helpful actually.

I'm perfectly fine with NWS long-term outlooks. It's the hypemongers liKe TWC and Morgan that live to frighten that push my buttons. They *have* to push the fear buttons.

I have found over the last year or two that KWTV seems to have ratcheted down much - but not all - of that rhetoric. I often hear Jed Castles, Lacey Swope, or even Payne commenting on a long-term outlook that (as an example) "something may be on the horizon for next week, but we'll see how it unfolds." That's exactly the kind of phrasing that perfectly translates the kinds of technical information SPC puts out into something the average person can understand.

Where did the bolded sentence come from? Did the SPC edit it out? If anything they would say this about Tuesday since this is the day that they are currently confident in highlighting.

The bolded sentence was copy and pasted from further down in the text (lines 21-22) and applies to Tuesday. The reference to Wednesday was just the start of the next sentence, but wound up looking like the label for the entire paragraph when re-pasted at the top.

I'd rather have long term "scary" outlooks than no warnings at all. . These forecasts help you get prepared practically and mentally, which I find helpful actually.

I’m the same way.

There was a time in our history when the government weather folks would not even mention the threat of tornadoes because they held a fear they would panic people. The reality is that as people became better educated over time far fewer lives were lost. This was just one more step in the educational process.

IMHO the fear of the tornado threat level forecast is misplaced by a very small number of people. It’s these same people who should put their fears to work by advocating for stronger building codes like the city of Moore has implemented and for more certified shelters in our places of work, school and new homes. Not having a good shelter when a tornado is nearby is a realistic fear!

Texas Tech University has done some outstanding research on how structures can be strengthened for a low additional cost during construction. Over time this would lower property and casualty events and help reduce real fear and hysteria.

This too would be another step in the educational process on a path to smarter living.

I’m the same way.

There was a time in our history when the government weather folks would not even mention the threat of tornadoes because they held a fear they would panic people. The reality is that as people became better educated over time far fewer lives were lost. This was just one more step in the educational process.


Ignorance is bliss, as they say.

As somebody who deals with anxiety, severe weather season in Oklahoma is very rough for me because of the hype that begins sometimes more than a week out from a possible event. While the frequency of tornadoes is much higher in central Oklahoma than anywhere else in the country, this isn't the only place with tornadoes. However, in other tornado-prone areas you generally don't deal with the hype that you have here, which makes storm season easier but isn't a good thing. I would say overall advanced warnings and the hype is a good thing as people here are far more prepared. To see evidence of that, just compare the response and number of lives lost in events like May 3, 1999 or May 20, 2013 with the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes in 2011. Oklahoma is far more prepared for those kind of events.

I think balance is key. Let people know that Tuesday is a day to watch, but don't hype it as Armageddon yet because there are so many variables at play. Also, the risk area is very large and we don't know yet who will be directly under the gun that day.

Ignorance is bliss, as they say.

As somebody who deals with anxiety, severe weather season in Oklahoma is very rough for me because of the hype that begins sometimes more than a week out from a possible event. While the frequency of tornadoes is much higher in central Oklahoma than anywhere else in the country, this isn't the only place with tornadoes. However, in other tornado-prone areas you generally don't deal with the hype that you have here, which makes storm season easier but isn't a good thing. I would say overall advanced warnings and the hype is a good thing as people here are far more prepared. To see evidence of that, just compare the response and number of lives lost in events like May 3, 1999 or May 20, 2013 with the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes in 2011. Oklahoma is far more prepared for those kind of events.

I think balance is key. Let people know that Tuesday is a day to watch, but don't hype it as Armageddon yet because there are so many variables at play. Also, the risk area is very large and we don't know yet who will be directly under the gun that day.

There needs to be a degree of hype simply because it’s needed to motivate some people in to taking proactive actions….. Such as finally ordering that long overdue shelter or a boss who decides to let his workers go home early so they can take care of their family. OKCPS has held discussions about not holding school on high risk days that could occur during school hours.

Hype drives TV ratings; the TV stations are for profit corporations. Fortunately for those who do not like their methods there are plenty of good alternatives in today’s world.

A certain amount of anxiety is normal and can be lifesaving. If you have a good shelter, taken care of your family, have your home well insured and have otherwise educated yourself about the threat, made preparation for and after the event and are paying attention at the right time there is not a lot more you can do. I do know people who take out of state vacations when tornadoes are expected.

The logic of mathematical odds is worth knowing… The odds are extremely high that something else besides a tornado will kill you particularly if you have done everything you can to protect yourself.:o

While I do agree that some of it is a little over the top, it is also good for some people that would normally not pay attention or don't care. As for anxiety, don't watch that channel if it worries you that bad. Anon and I can tell you that it is in fact a possibility of an outbreak somewhere between Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. As stated, the SPC rarely issues even a day 4 outlook let alone a day 7. Confidence is beginning to increase so I would advise you to just keep an eye out and not watch TV due to your anxiety. There are a lot of people out there that say oh just Oklahoma weather and don't think twice and those are usually the people that are killed in violent outbreaks. A lot of Mets are trying to open more peoples eyes to this and if it scares someone and makes them pay more attention then oh well it most likely saved their lives. Be prepared, don't watch mike morgan, and listen to what we say about the upcoming storms we will do our best not to worry you but are going to say the truth and possibilities once the systems sets up. Remember this is spring in Oklahoma and this is the tornado capital of the world.

Where did the bolded sentence come from? Did the SPC edit it out? If anything they would say this about Tuesday since this is the day that they are currently confident in highlighting.

No that was an excerpt from there text product this morning, I copied that part out and bolded it to send out to my people to emphasize that day in particular.