NWS acknowledged it by this:

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman 15h15 hours ago
814pm - very brief spin ups possible along leading edge of storms moving into OKC metro area. May last just seconds. Minimal damage.


The logic is basically that Severe Thunderstorm Warning covers the possibility of tornadoes. And they try and reserve Tornado Warning for sustained tracking tornadoes or the immediate threat of one.


Personally, I think TOR warning should have been issued despite them being maybe 1-2 minute lasting EF0s or not. The warning was not issued until the tornado was confirmed to be on the ground crossing Turner Turnpike by OHP.

Anybody know why it took so long to TOR warn the storm that came through Oklahoma county? It was producing numerous weak spin ups. Of course they aren't strong tornadoes, but anybody outside or in a mobile home needed to be prepared.

My opinion, and others may disagree, is that there's no need to tor warn what amounts to an EF0 or less tornado. It's something barely even in the category of a dust devil. The objective isn't to warn anything that spins; it's to warn against damaging weather potential. I think you run the risk of creating more problems than you solve by trying to warn every possible spinup in a situation like last night.

My opinion, and others may disagree, is that there's no need to tor warn what amounts to an EF0 or less tornado. It's something barely even in the category of a dust devil. The objective isn't to warn anything that spins; it's to warn against damaging weather potential. I think you run the risk of creating more problems than you solve by trying to warn every possible spinup in a situation like last night.

I agree with this, but if I was the one pressing buttons last night - I am not risking such a situation over a heavily populated area. So my opinion is I agree with the logic, but the circumstances last night would have led me to issue the tornado warning.

Just goes to show how you shouldn't freak out about a model forecasting an outbreak 1 week from when that model came out. Funny thing is that two or three days before the event, models were forecasting unfavorable wind shear for tornadoes. Of course the mainstream media didn't really point this out, they were still trying to "wishcast" the event into something bigger. If you know how to read computer models or follow people people outside of mainstream media than your probably not surprised that yesterday was a bust.

Of course, there was a chance it could have turned out to be a bigger day, but the chances were always greater that it was going to be a bust when it came to tornadoes. You could tell the SPC was hedging their bets in outlook discussions. They can get away with no consequences for a bust forecast where nothing happens(as long as it doesn't happen all the time). It would only take one bust forecast where something major happens for there to be major political consequences.

People just don't know how to put things into prospective. They want a black and white answer which you simply can't do.

But that depends on your definition of a "bust." For a time last night, there were severe thunderstorms in a nearly continuous line from Kansas to Texas and beyond; rotating supercells were in NW and SW/SC for a good chunk of the evening. Where's the bust? Because an EF5 didn't plow through Moore?

The thing I personally believe the SPC would do differently last night would be *not* to issue the PDS. That's just my two cents. They were fairly firm and reasonable in their rationale for not going high risk on the outlook maps, and to me that should have driven a similar decision not to go PDS. I understand the criteria for the two may differ, but that should at least have been a mitigating factor. But to say last night's forecast was a "bust" just isn't accurate. No, we didn't have an epic, historic outbreak, but we didn't have zilch, either.

I agree with this, but if I was the one pressing buttons last night - I am not risking such a situation over a heavily populated area. So my opinion is I agree with the logic, but the circumstances last night would have led me to issue the tornado warning.

Fair enough and understand your point completely.

But that depends on your definition of a "bust." For a time last night, there were severe thunderstorms in a nearly continuous line from Kansas to Texas and beyond; rotating supercells were in NW and SW/SC for a good chunk of the evening. Where's the bust? Because an EF5 didn't plow through Moore?

The thing I personally believe the SPC would do differently last night would be *not* to issue the PDS. That's just my two cents. They were fairly firm and reasonable in their rationale for not going high risk on the outlook maps, and to me that should have driven a similar decision not to go PDS. I understand the criteria for the two may differ, but that should at least have been a mitigating factor. But to say last night's forecast was a "bust" just isn't accurate. No, we didn't have an epic, historic outbreak, but we didn't have zilch, either.
A little after 9, I looked at the radar, and the line of continuous t-storms stretched from the northern border of Nebraska, thru Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, almost to the Rio Grande. About 70-90 miles wide, unbroken. Very impressive.

FYI:)

We need to move on to Friday’s potential

The timing was a bit off, but when they originally forecasted the storms to enter the west metro at 5pm, that's what everyone was basing decisions on. I let my folks go a little early yesterday, if those storms that rolled through at 8pm had hit at 5pm, it wasn't worth having my folks trying to drive home in that crap.

Yes. I think that was the motivation behind many of the early closings—to not have the highways jam-packed at rush hour and people getting caught in it. My kid's school cancelled after-care, even though they have a brand-new state of the art building that doubles as a safe house. It would appear that they were thinking about everybody driving home.

For me, I was happy to be able to get her, get home and know that we were all safe together and could just walk down to our basement if need be. It did seem like much ado about nothing, but I could see it being really awful if people *hadn't* taken their precautions and then the storms were as bad as they had the potential to be. It's a tough call. Maybe a balance can be struck for future storms.

Most of this discussion should go into the Oklahoma Media Coverage (http://www.okctalk.com/showwiki.php?title=Island:36970) thread.

Looking ahead now, there is a similar system coming through on Friday. This one looks to be not as complex as Tuesday's setup, but still pretty hairy to forecast.

Right now it looks like triple point type of setup in W OK or maybe as far west as eastern TX PH. Moisture return will have a lot to do with quality of cells, but it bears watching the next few days as the event is only about 60 hours out.

Exactly. Mods could you move all the discussion about the local television presenters to the media forum?

But that depends on your definition of a "bust." For a time last night, there were severe thunderstorms in a nearly continuous line from Kansas to Texas and beyond; rotating supercells were in NW and SW/SC for a good chunk of the evening. Where's the bust? Because an EF5 didn't plow through Moore?

The thing I personally believe the SPC would do differently last night would be *not* to issue the PDS. That's just my two cents. They were fairly firm and reasonable in their rationale for not going high risk on the outlook maps, and to me that should have driven a similar decision not to go PDS. I understand the criteria for the two may differ, but that should at least have been a mitigating factor. But to say last night's forecast was a "bust" just isn't accurate. No, we didn't have an epic, historic outbreak, but we didn't have zilch, either.

Yeah, I don't know what they saw to make them decided to go with the PDS. Maybe if that first tornado watch was smaller and contained to western Oklahoma.

In regards to the definition of bust? Yes, I still say it was a bust based on what the a moderate risk was based on: Hail. There wasn't really that many large hail reports across the whole moderate risk region. That's not saying the moderate risk wasn't justified though.

BE AWARE THIS AFTERNOON


Kind of a last minute warning since OKCTalk has been down.

But be on alert tonight, warm front surging north back into OK with the low coming out of the TX PH. This puts the triple point somewhere directly near OKC. Models are bringing the front back north to different places, so it will all depend on that. You will be able to tell when boundary crosses over you because it will become noticeably warmer. Right now the best guess is along I-40 corridor. The greatest chance for dangerous storms is directly on this boundary as the low comes out of the west creating a development point along the path.

I have drawn a map to give a visual about what is going on. The warm front is surging north and the low will take the path of where it ever it ends up as the afternoon comes about. The earlier and deeper into the yellow shaded area below the warm front, the greater your chances of severe storms comes along with it.

http://i.imgur.com/FgY4SL7.png


I made this map this morning and will be making another one here shortly to show the updated movement.

Thanks Anon, that is some mad MS Paint skills :)

Boundaries are still on the move, and at a very good clip. OKC will be close to exactly where the cutoff will be. The storms popping up down near Altus now are riding along the warm front which is still edging to the NW/N/NE, with emphasis on north east travel.

HRRR turns these into some pretty stout storms as they develop through C and S OK.

http://i.imgur.com/FqbjUdo.png

Is 4:00 pm still our expected time for these to hit OKC?

Tornado watch issued until 10 PM for roughly the southern half of OK, extending just north of I-40 in central OK:

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 126 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0126.html)

Looks like we could have two major supercells riding up along the front per current storm evolution in the SW.

Norman to OKC area needs to be on high alert.

This morning I saw an entire back fence and at least one section of the side fence were blown over last night near NW 178th & May. This was common-area fencing and heavier duty than the fences around backyards. I also saw one broken telephone pole and some damage to the fencing along May at the golf course there at NW 178th. I assume this was all due to straight line winds.

All the trees in my complex near NW HW and Council were snapped and uprooted.