So the way tomorrow is looking, is the chance of a bust scenario for central OK is decently present. The timing of the low ejecting may result in a lack of adequate lift to get storms going until maybe east of I-35. Models are hinting at this scenario and exploding storms basically right after the main dryline push east of I-35. However this is almost impossible to forecast because we have to see where the dryline sets up tomorrow and the exact timing of the low across KS/NEB.

There is also the possibility of the opposite scenario in which the dryline forcing is lagged behind and results in a more tilted dryline somewhere in WC OK. This scenario would obviously be more threatening to the populated areas in C OK, as storms would have time to mature before traversing ENE across the state.

At this time, I would not be surprised to see the MODERATE risk expanded south and east into N/NE TX. Also I think a HIGH risk will be placed somewhere in C KS.

They expanded the moderate area it seems.

http://i.imgur.com/oAAmJr0.png

May have a stray storm or two that develops on a slight bulge I see on the dryline out in W OK this afternoon. North of Clinton area. Chance of development is extremely low, but if development occurs, severe is likely.

Reading a few bits here and there that lots of concern being focused in the Wichita area and immed. east. I-35 corridor the real hotspot, making that dryline timing even more important.

Latest NAM is in. Fires dryline west of I-35, suggesting a possible refire heading into nighttime.

Latest NAM is in. Fires dryline west of I-35, suggesting a possible refire heading into nighttime.

How far west of I-35 are we talking? Do you think the storms will be able to make it through the metro before reaching their peak threat?

I don't think that is answerable until tomorrow. But I will broadly say the column of counties N to S:

Alfalfa - Major - Blaine - Caddo - Comanche - Cotton

And I think storms will instantly become severe and rotate as they develop. Remember supercell does not mean tornado. It is only the term given to rotating storms that [obviously] are capable of dropping a tornado. Hail is nearly guaranteed with any supercell. Storm height will help determine hailsize for tomorrow. Have a plan to duck the cars and protect plants if you recently planted.

There was some discussion since we don't have Ventures chat really anymore, did anyone ever setup a Discord or IRC or anything? I'm not sure if anyones even still interested in having a chat or not.

There was some discussion since we don't have Ventures chat really anymore, did anyone ever setup a Discord or IRC or anything? I'm not sure if anyones even still interested in having a chat or not.

I suppose we could still use Venture's chatroom, it's still up and it works.

Interesting article that explains some different scenarios.

An Update on Tuesday - ATs Weather (http://aarontuttleweather.com/2016/04/25/an-update-on-tuesday/?platform=hootsuite)

I have a Slack account we can use. Anyone who wants to join can just PM me their email address and I'll send an invite.

If you're interested (and knowledgeable about in-depth weather analysis), hoot.ou.edu has great tools as does the NWS SPC's Mesoanalysis page: SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=14)


Edit: hoot.ou.edu is down :-(

Apparently, Mid-Del School district is cancelling tomorrow due to the threat of weather.

This sounds a bit like the El Reno set up as I recall. Storms popped up and fired about as quickly as they hit their ceiling.

It would seem the media has gone into full doom mode for tomorrow. Morgan predicting 8/10 chance for tornados in central Oklahoma with the possibility of F4 tornados.

Yeah, I haven't seen them do this since May 31, 2013. School districts are also cancelling due to the threat. Does this usually happen? Hopefully the models predicting the greatest threat east of I-35 pan out.

I don't get why the schools are closing considering the timing that the storms are suppose to fire. Seems like their more concerned for the safety of staff members than students. Closing down schools completely changes parents' schedules. I'm all for safety but I'm SMH'ing about this one...

Are we going to use Ventures chat room for tomorrow or another? Please post so we are all on the same page. We need to get this stuff nailed down ahead of time. Anon should make the call on where the chatroom will be.

Wooo, caught KWTV and KFOR's 5/6 forecasts and ooh the hype is on. Payne was actually pretty calm but they're bringing in the Tulsa team for more coverage so we'll have the dual helicopters and extra stormchasers from them. Morgan was throwing out torcon indexes, talking about multiple redevelopments and just a crazy spun up newscast.

Ah it must be spring in Oklahoma.

Wooo, caught KWTV and KFOR's 5/6 forecasts and ooh the hype is on. Payne was actually pretty calm but they're bringing in the Tulsa team for more coverage so we'll have the dual helicopters and extra stormchasers from them. Morgan was throwing out torcon indexes, talking about multiple redevelopments and just a crazy spun up newscast.

Ah it must be spring in Oklahoma.

KOCO 5 is kinda of hyping it but they are saying the tornado is a 6 for the OKC Metro area

Venture just responded to a Facebook post indicating he would have the chat running tomorrow.

Any chance of the CAP holding in Central Oklahoma tomorrow? AT's blog says it could if the temperature fails to hit 80 degrees.

Any chance of the CAP holding in Central Oklahoma tomorrow? AT's blog says it could if the temperature fails to hit 80 degrees.

The chance is there of a cap bust. Won't know until this time tomorrow.

KOCO 5 is kinda of hyping it but they are saying the tornado is a 6 for the OKC Metro area

Yeah. Mike Morgan has it at an 8 for OKC and 9 for north central Oklahoma.

I don't think May 31, 2013 was hyped quite this much.

There's a lot more than just a CAP bust possible tomorrow. A lot of things are currently going against this, like for example, weak shear/meridional flow in Oklahoma. It doesn't mean we won't see tornadoes of course, it's just highly conditional/depends on what actually happens tomorrow.


Interesting twitter feed from a discussion with SPC forecasters down in Norman:

https://twitter.com/akracki

This was posted by Venture on Facebook about an Hour ago.










Weather Spotlight

1 hr ·
..

Significant Severe Threat for ‪#‎OKWX‬ on Tuesday.

Sorry it has taken some time to get this together, but here are the thoughts on tomorrow. Obviously high end event potential with this one and as with all high end events, that means high end bust possibilities. So let's take a look and see what we have to play with...

Moisture quality should be pretty good for tomorrow. With no activity today to mess with the atmosphere, should have a relative juicy setup going into tomorrow. If the 18z NAM is to be believe, we are talking upper 60s and low 70s ahead of the dryline throughout Oklahoma. It doesn't really get better than that for April. Dryline should move the Highway 281 area by 4PM and we should be looking at initiation starting around this time as well. Dryline is likely to get hung up as the storms form and the sharpness of it will get muddied a bit but as it stands now, it likely won't progress much beyond US 81 and stay west of I-35 until a front comes through and pushes everything out.

Forecast instability on 4km NAM is pretty stupid high, which lets be honest it tends to go a little crazy. It is putting CAPE values near 4000-5000 j/kg along the dryline which would definitely lend to extremely explosive development once it gets triggered. As we are all aware, it doesn't take long to go from developing CU to tornado when the conditions are right.

Supercell composites and SigTor numbers are high as expected for this, and once the LLJ kicks in SigTor numbers go extremely high. Again, 4km NAM can be pretty extreme at times so we'll have to see how later runs evolve and the hi-res models look tomorrow once this enters their forecast window. For good measure, the GFS still highlights a severe day, but has other differences such as moving the dryline to near I-35, but it does pop the first storms west of I-35 around 3PM-4PM.

So with all these ingredient it is important to note it takes a lot for high end days to actually happen. Moisture quality could be a lot poorer than forecast. Winds will really need to stay out of the Southeast to ensure the fetch off the gulf stays in tact. Dryline positioning also comes into play and if it moves faster than anticipated it'll throw forecast placements off. Skies may not be entirely clear, so any cloud cover is going to play a role as well. There is a lot that can go wrong, but that is the nature of potential high end days.

The best defense in these scenarios is just stay weather aware and have a plan in place. Stay connected with multiple options to get alerts. More updates will be posted throughout the day tomorrow and of course covered in the live chat at weatherspotlight.com.

I will be here for live coverage in thread or in chatroom whichever we have. I will be there for nowcast situation.

I will be here for live coverage in thread or in chatroom whichever we have. I will be there for nowcast situation.

Thank you. So I can tell my wife, should she be home by four? Some people are suggesting these could fire as early as 3 p.m. I'm a bit confused.

I don't think I have ever seen a Low eject in this fashion this far south in the plains before. Really it is a rare animal for TX/OK, much more common nearer to Nebraska.

This forecast is difficult because storms could fire earlier on the dryline which would arc supercells west of I-35. Or they could fire on top of I-35 and east of the C OK corridor.

I wish I could pinpoint a time, but it is too difficult to tell. We have to see atmosphere profiles tomorrow and observe everything on visible satellite to find out what kind of cloud cover we are dealing with.

I am sitting here watching the low spin around out in Utah and Colorado and it is pretty impressive what track this will take. In fact, I think it could take such an abnormal path, that the main risk area should be in E OK with Tulsa and up to Wichita being the bullseye.

If this were to play out, I could actually see OKC getting out of this entirely. Models have been saying the low will come out into N KS near the NE border. However, some are indicating a track into SW KS and even as extreme as NW OK.

Keep in mind, no one is out of the woods until the dryline has passed.

Models this morning are back to Western OK solution. So the previous post looks like the less likely scenario.

So skies are mostly clear and dews are neat 70F. This is going to be a big day for someone.


HRRR firing storms in SW and WC OK with explosive supercells. Hail threat will be almost a guarantee. Do NOT park under bridges.

From NWS in Norman Weather Balloon launch earlier this morning.

Weather balloon data shows very unstable air mass already in place. CAPE near 4000. (For non Wx geeks that's big)

From NWS in Norman Weather Balloon launch earlier this morning.

Weather balloon data shows very unstable air mass already in place. CAPE near 4000. (For non Wx geeks that's big)

Yikes. Anyone have dewpoint info, or a sounding plot?

Here's a sounding plot that I think is from this morning. If I read it correctly, not much of a cap, and there's lots of lift, and lots of energy. Just realized there's a Mesonet map of dewpoints at the top of the thread - already showing in the high 60's. More than a sufficient setup for a stormy day whenever it fires. Hoo, boy...gotta love springtime in OK.

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/skew_KOUN_inv.gif

The following excerpt from the Day 1 outlook from SPC highlights the complexity of this setup and echoes some of the things Anon has said - so many moving parts and unusual components that it's almost impossible even at this point to give much more than very coarse-grained, general guidance about initiation and coverage. You can almost read the frustration in the excerpt:



12Z RAOBS SHOWED CAPPING STRENGTHENING WITH SWD EXTENT.
REGARDLESS...SHORT-FUSED/CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE OVER PAST
SEVERAL HOURS HAS OFFERED MIXED MESSAGES IN TERMS OF
TIMING...COVERAGE AND MODE OF AFTN CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING MODAL TRANSITION AFTER INITIAL RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR STATE. TIMING UNCERTAINTY...AND COVERAGE OF
EARLIER VERSUS LATER CONVECTION...ARE IMPORTANT BECAUSE EARLIER
TSTMS DURING AFTN WILL MOVE THROUGH LESS-FAVORABLE SRH PRIOR TO MOST
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MASS RESPONSE...AND WIND PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY VEER/BACK/VEER SHAPE. THEY ALSO MAY STABILIZE AIR
MASS IN INFLOW REGION OF SOME LATER STORMS. LATER
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY THAT WHICH IS STILL RELATIVELY DISCRETE IN
22-03Z TIME WINDOW AND NOT INGESTING COLD OUTFLOW -- SHOULD POSE
GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES...INCLUDING A FEW SIGNIFICANT ONES.
STG MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF FLOW ALSO INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
CONVECTIVE MODES TO EVOLVE REASONABLY QUICKLY FROM EARLY-DISCRETE
TSTMS.

I thought they were getting rid of all caps? It's like I'm reading an email from my 70 year old aunt

I thought they were getting rid of all caps? It's like I'm reading an email from my 70 year old aunt

I think it starts second week of May.

Special weather balloon launch will occur in Norman around noon

Storms developed just east of OKC this morning, already severe within 20 minutes.

Looks like some cells firing up just NE of OKC, heading NE.

HRRR develops line of supercells draped across the state in the counties I listed yesterday.

Alfalfa - Major - Blaine - Caddo - Comanche - Cotton

For those unfamiliar with county locations, that is 2 rows of counties west of OKC.


One of the tricks today is can the supercells route off of the dryline and push east quickly enough to not be undercut by the rapidly moving Low boundary that will be swinging up from the southwest behind the dryline.

OKCPS will let out 30 minutes early today with all afternoon activity’s canceled

OKCPS will let out 30 minutes early today with all afternoon activity’s canceled

We appreciate this, although Midwest City made a decision that is much more responsible for parents. A lot of children live in single parent homes with parents who work. I will never understand why OKC waits until the kids are literally at school to make announcements like this.

A few storms initiating currently, as if the forecast wasn't already incredibly complex lol.

OUN mentions this:


ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE THREAT. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ORGANIZED AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE AFTER 2 PM THROUGH THIS EVENING.

Looks like some cells firing up just NE of OKC, heading NE.

We also now have substantial cloud cover. Anybody think this might keep things toned down this afternoon?

Earlier today that guidance had been around 3-4pm, had it not? Indicates that dryline may be moving faster


A few storms initiating currently, as if the forecast wasn't already incredibly complex lol.

OUN mentions this:


ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE THREAT. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ORGANIZED AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE AFTER 2 PM THROUGH THIS EVENING.

We also now have substantial cloud cover. Anybody think this might keep things toned down this afternoon?

@NWSNorman
10am update - isolated storm NE OK county will not impact later severe potential. Clouds will also not significantly impact later potential

We appreciate this, although Midwest City made a decision that is much more responsible for parents. A lot of children live in single parent homes with parents who work. I will never understand why OKC waits until the kids are literally at school to make announcements like this.

Yeah that surprised me, too. I would have the bigger the district, the more likely they'd be to make the announcement the day before - but this was just the opposite. The smaller district can be a bit more responsive/proactive, but one the size of OKC you seem to be deferring the decision too long to wait until the day of..No perfect methodology, I suppose.

Yeah that surprised me, too. I would have the bigger the district, the more likely they'd be to make the announcement the day before - but this was just the opposite. The smaller district can be a bit more responsive/proactive, but one the size of OKC you seem to be deferring the decision too long to wait until the day of..No perfect methodology, I suppose.

My wife works in Mid-Del. They had days built into the schedule for a couple years now to deal with special weather events like this. I believe OKC did as well, but they had already pulled those to deal with the budget crisis. I dont think OKC had the days available to cancel school altogether.


On another note, the decision making process at OKCPS seems to be in disarray right now with all the drama going on at the top... may have affected the decision.

Earlier today that guidance had been around 3-4pm, had it not? Indicates that dryline may be moving faster

Help me out here, I have a meeting in Norman early afternoon. I'm planning to be back by 2:30 or 3. Will that keep me ahead of the bad stuff?

Super technical maps are back!

The pink is where I think storms will develop around 5pm:

http://i.imgur.com/xHsCS84.jpg

Northern edge will likely go first, but I expect the dryline to go almost all at the same time.

The wind arrows on the bottom are favorable for tornadoes, but would be more so if they were more out of the southeast.

Super technical maps are back!

The pink is where I think storms will develop around 5pm:

http://i.imgur.com/xHsCS84.jpg


I LOVE IT!!! (Low-tech maps). Reminds me of the days Jim Williams on WKY-TV (now KFOR) used his "liquid chalk" bottle that looked like Elmer's Glue or when Lola Hall and Tom Mahoney used that big square block of chalk on their weather boards back in the day on KWTV. There's something to be said for throwing up a quick map from a sketch that doesn't always have all the great graphics and computer support :)

-David

Suffer from storm-related anxiety? Help is available | News OK (http://newsok.com/suffer-from-storm-related-anxiety-help-is-available/article/5494264)

Help me out here, I have a meeting in Norman early afternoon. I'm planning to be back by 2:30 or 3. Will that keep me ahead of the bad stuff?

I think you'll probably be fine. I don't *think* storms will impact the metro until after 4-5PM.

CU field very healthy from Altus to Weatherford to Enid.

I expect PDS TOR Watch by 2pm.

Everybodys in the chat (Including Venture) if anybody else wants to join.

Rose State College will close at 3 PM today.

Large numbers of kids in the OKCPS did not show up today.
Hundreds or maybe thousands have already been checked out of school. The remaining kids are not getting very much done.
It was waste of a day to even have school in OKCPS.

^
similarly, occc closed at 1pm. -M

My son doesnt have to do his afterschool classwork detention today due to storms...he's stoked. "Bring on the naders!!" And that's Piedmont schools, the canceled afternoon activities etc.

"Bring on the naders!!
You are a sad human being.