One last wave of rain tonight. However, it looks like it will be confined mostly to SW OK. The next several days look amazing weather-wise.

Hype drives TV ratings; the TV stations are for profit corporations. Fortunately for those who do not like their methods there are plenty of good alternatives in today’s world.The best way to reduce the amount of hype is to avoid exposing yourself to the hypesters. Instead, buy a $30 weather radio (that was the price last time I was in a Sam's) and leave it turned on. That specific model can be set to respond only to alerts for your county and up to three more, and will let you know GOOD information in plenty of time to do something about it....

When the TV station management starts losing viewer numbers BECAUSE of the hype, rather than gaining more, you'll be amazed at how quickly it vanishes from the scene!

Damon Lane has a new severe risk map out for Tuesday. The metro (of course), northern Oklahoma, and southern Kansas are in the highest risk area while most of the state is under a slight risk. Isn't it a little early to be pinning it down like this?

David Payne posted this to his Facebook. This is the way to do it.


Threat of severe storms ramps around the corner. As always, don't panic just have a plan of what to do when severe weather threatens. Some severe weather possible Sunday as a storm system pushes through Oklahoma. Monday looks quiet. A much stronger storm arrives on Tuesday of next week. Right now this looks like a pretty active day with the possibility of tornadoes. REMEMBER, this is nearly a week away and things will most certainly change. Just keep Sunday and Tuesday in the back of your mind....My storm trackers and choppers are ready for whatever tries to threaten Oklahoma! KWTV - NEWS 9 ‪#‎okwx‬

Yep good on David Payne, so far this year he's been much calmer and more reassuring than he has been in the past, reminds me a lot of growing up and listening to Gary England honestly, maybe he finally took some lessons to heart.

Yep good on David Payne, so far this year he's been much calmer and more reassuring than he has been in the past, reminds me a lot of growing up and listening to Gary England honestly, maybe he finally took some lessons to heart.

He got away from Mike 'The Hype Machine' Morgan.

Yeah I've definitely noticed his calmer attitude this year, reminds me a lot of Gary. KWTV is what I'll watch this year during events most likely.

I do miss some of the things Gary would say during his severe weather broadcasts... "Those hail could be tangerine-sized, or maybe plums." "Can someone answer that telephone?"

Weather service has a 30% enhanced risk now for Day 6. As stated, this could end up being a very serious day as the SPC just doesn't usually issue 30% areas this far out.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day6prob.gif?1461241320857

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210839
SPC AC 210839

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY/DAY 4. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. ON MONDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS BRING A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE SRN PLAINS WHERE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. ON TUESDAY/DAY 6...THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
MOVE A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
JET ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE MODELS
SHOW A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S F AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ADDING A 30 PERCENT CONTOUR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX...OK
AND SRN KS. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 7...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE MO VALLEY AND
HAVING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE MID MS VALLEY EXTENDING SWWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG PARTS OF
THIS CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY/DAY 8...ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SWRN U.S. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE IN THE SRN PLAINS WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 04/21/2016

Since 2008, SPC has issued a 15% or 30% 7 days out only 11 times, inclusive of yesterday...

https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/722973887449817088

http://tweetimgs.pmarshwx.com/pmarshwx/20160421/20160421022044.png

And then this: @pmarshwx The @NWSSPC forecasters should share @PGATOUR slogan #theseguysrgood Out of 10 total (Day 7 forecasts) only 1 didn't verify 120605

Here is the NWS take on the upcoming severe weather event:

AFTER A COUPLE OF MILD/WARM DRY DAYS...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. SUNDAY
WILL BE BREEZY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

THE FIRST UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE SYSTEM REORGANIZES FARTHER WEST...IN
RESPONSE TO THE SECOND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A MUCH GREATER CHANCE
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
PRECISE TIMING/PLACEMENT IS STILL NOT POSSIBLE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
STORM SYSTEM WARRANTS ATTENTION.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR-
DUPLICATES...SYNOPTICALLY...OF MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...RESPECTIVELY...AS YET ANOTHER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
SWEEPS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

Since 2008, SPC has issued a 15% or 30% 7 days out only 11 times, inclusive of yesterday...

https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/722973887449817088

http://tweetimgs.pmarshwx.com/pmarshwx/20160421/20160421022044.png

And then this: @pmarshwx The @NWSSPC forecasters should share @PGATOUR slogan #theseguysrgood Out of 10 total (Day 7 forecasts) only 1 didn't verify 120605

This is true, but you have to remember the area that they paint the actual risk, is who is going to be complaining when they don't get a tornado in their backyard and call it a bust. I remember multiple times in the last few years, that even people on this board complain about overhype and busts, when just 80 miles north of OKC there is large violent tornadoes on the ground.

The bottomline is people are greedy when it comes to forecasts, a tornadic storm tracking north of Guthrie in mostly rural land versus the same storm tracking 15 miles south through Edmond changes the entire perception of the event for the majority of the population.

This is true, but you have to remember the area that they paint the actual risk, is who is going to be complaining when they don't get a tornado in their backyard and call it a bust. I remember multiple times in the last few years, that even people on this board complain about overhype and busts, when just 80 miles north of OKC there is large violent tornadoes on the ground.

The bottomline is people are greedy when it comes to forecasts, a tornadic storm tracking north of Guthrie in mostly rural land versus the same storm tracking 15 miles south through Edmond changes the entire perception of the event for the majority of the population.

Do you see the conditions on Tuesday favorable for violent, long-track tornadoes as opposed to the garden variety?

It's hard to tell this far out, but I would say there's a very decent chance of a PDS somewhere just based off of current information. Again, the SPC doesn't issue 30% areas very much and when they do this far out a lot of times there is a high risk area somewhere. When the NWS talks this much about it and says start reviewing your safety plans now then there pretty sure with the consistency of the current models.

Here is the latest for my side of the state from the NWS in Tulsa.

A period of quiet weather will continue through Saturday...however this will change by Sunday as an upper wave slides across the plains bringing the potential for thunderstorms with a limited risk for severe weather. Another strong upper wave will take a track across the plains on Tuesday...and this system will bring the greatest potential for severe weather to the region...most likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Details will continue to be refined but it does appear a significant severe weather event may occur during this time frame. Now is a good time to review safety plans as the weather pattern will become rather active next week with multiple opportunities for severe weather.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/tsa/graphicast/image1.gif

Do you see the conditions on Tuesday favorable for violent, long-track tornadoes as opposed to the garden variety?

Not probable to come to that conclusion just yet, but I will say SPC does not mess around when it comes to 4+ day risk outlooks.

We still have to go through our normal severe weather routine of early morning convection and cloud cover throwing wrenches around. Wind shear profiles and low level moisture will all be questions even 24 hours prior to the event. Sunday evening could be a sleeper, too.

Here's what the TWC is saying

Tuesday
•More widespread severe t-storms in the central and southern Plains.
•Overall outbreak potential: Moderate to high
•Threats: Tornadoes (possibly numerous, strong/long-track), large hail, damaging winds

https://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-47_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg



Tuesday's Thunderstorm Outlook


Tuesday's Thunderstorm Outlook

Areas shaded red have the greatest chance of seeing severe thunderstorms. General thunderstorms are possible in orange shaded locations.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say there will be at least one tornado in this state within the next week and a half.

Its that time of year where we start entering the peak of severe weather season. This seems like a more normal year where we are actually seeing these severe weather opportunities in late April/early May as oppose to Mid/Late May.

Isn't that like predicting the sun will rise at least one day next week?

Not probable to come to that conclusion just yet, but I will say SPC does not mess around when it comes to 4+ day risk outlooks.

We still have to go through our normal severe weather routine of early morning convection and cloud cover throwing wrenches around. Wind shear profiles and low level moisture will all be questions even 24 hours prior to the event. Sunday evening could be a sleeper, too.

What about the CAP? Last year, it seemed to be weak all season long, which caused storms to fire earlier in the day but were overall less severe. It was one of the most active years in state history, but there were relatively few discreet supercells with violent, long-track tornadoes. Most of them were EF3 and below.




Its that time of year where we start entering the peak of severe weather season. This seems like a more normal year where we are actually seeing these severe weather opportunities in late April/early May as oppose to Mid/Late May.

I've noticed this. From my memories living in OKC during the 90s and early 2000s, severe weather season was always late April and early May and by Memorial day things have quieted down. The past few years have been quiet until mid-late May.

Isn't that like predicting the sun will rise at least one day next week?

Yeah, pretty much. lol

Really, if things pan out the way the models are going, next week will be rough, but like anonymous said, we could have two or three violet tornado 50 miles east or north of the metro and people will call it a bust. On the other hand, have ONE tornado hit Moore and people call it a "tornado outbreak."

Here's what the TWC is saying

Tuesday
•More widespread severe t-storms in the central and southern Plains.
•Overall outbreak potential: Moderate to high
•Threats: Tornadoes (possibly numerous, strong/long-track), large hail, damaging winds

https://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-47_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg




When I start reading forecast like this and when the timing is nailed down by Monday it’s when I believe we need to be more far proactive about letting people leave work and school with several hours to spare.

It’s not too soon to start talking about actions like this!

What about the CAP? Last year, it seemed to be weak all season long, which caused storms to fire earlier in the day but were overall less severe. It was one of the most active years in state history, but there were relatively few discreet supercells with violent, long-track tornadoes. Most of them were EF3 and below.



That's why people can't make specific predictions about Tuesday. All the ingredients will be there, its just a matter of where and if they will mix together just right. The general pattern is there though.

Not probable to come to that conclusion just yet, but I will say SPC does not mess around when it comes to 4+ day risk outlooks.

We still have to go through our normal severe weather routine of early morning convection and cloud cover throwing wrenches around. Wind shear profiles and low level moisture will all be questions even 24 hours prior to the event. Sunday evening could be a sleeper, too.

What do you mean by Sunday evening could be a sleeper? We need to watch Sunday evening also?

I completely agree with Anon, Sunday definitely could be a sleeper for parts of central and possibly northeast ok. By no means will it be an outbreak like we could see Tuesday-Wednesday but it could have a few tornadoes.

Yea just keep watch on it, especially N OK.

I have decided to post some brief summaries of (GFS) model graphics for the upcoming potential event days just for kicks. These are not set in stone by any means, and placements and timing will be more fine-tuned closer (obviously).

Let me know if these are annoying, or actually interesting.






Sunday: Storms develop along front in S KS and try and back build into W OK, potentially supercells as southern tail of low pressure is normally isolated.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016042112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png





Tuesday: Dryline-fired supercells draped across C OK.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016042112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png


Tuesday night:Continued refiring of cells along frontal boundary in WC OK during late overnight hours.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016042112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png







Thursday: Dryline setup in WC and SW OK, with draped frontal boundary across NC OK. Triple point somewhere west out just north of I-40.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016042112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png


Severe weather looks to continue into Friday and Saturday, but models are way too muddy this far out for those.

Hey Anon, the cells you mentioned Tuesday night, do they look to be tornadic? Are we going to have to deal with the possibility of overnight tornadoes as well as evening ones? I know it's still a long ways out but still.

Speaking of a long ways out, the hypetrain is insane right now. I know it's been a quiet for years for chasers and they're trigger happy but it's crazy.

I like^

The best way to reduce the amount of hype is to avoid exposing yourself to the hypesters. Instead, buy a $30 weather radio (that was the price last time I was in a Sam's) and leave it turned on. That specific model can be set to respond only to alerts for your county and up to three more, and will let you know GOOD information in plenty of time to do something about it....

When the TV station management starts losing viewer numbers BECAUSE of the hype, rather than gaining more, you'll be amazed at how quickly it vanishes from the scene!

And I think for the very first time you're beginning to see *precisely* that. Given that more people, I think, are becoming somewhat better educated about weather in general has started to make that hype methodology less attractive. I think ol Rick Mitchell when he was with KOCO was one of the first mets who *really* started to set a different tone with severe weather forecasting and get away from the hype.

The irony for me, personally, is that when I was growing up, Gary E. was the hype king. You want to talk about someone who had mellowed over the years.....On the other hand, guys like Jim Williams (Danny's brother) on what is now KFOR but was then WKY-TV was very measured.....

Sorry, I digress... :)

Interesting.

Do you think the biggest tornado threat on Tuesday will be with the first wave of supercells or will it continue overnight? Also, from that graphic it looks like enough could fire that they merge into a squal line. Am I wrong?

That's why people can't make specific predictions about Tuesday. All the ingredients will be there, its just a matter of where and if they will mix together just right. The general pattern is there though.

That's the critical difference in understanding the purpose of the long-range models versus a short-term forecast. The long-range models paint a very *macro*, large-scale picture, but when one gets into trouble is when they start trying to translate those into *pinpoint* models. That becomes a matter of using a screwdriver like a hammer - wrong tool for the wrong job. The long-range tools can't possibly factor in all the nearly-infinite variables that come into play at the time the particular storm system arrives at a given location. The best such models can do is factor in mathematical probabilities of most-likely scenarios. There's no way those models can forecast, eg a stronger cap that pushes development farther north, or an early morning cloud deck that inhibits early heating and destabilization, or even early morning "crapvection" from storms left over from the previous night. Or a butterfly's flapping wings. Any one or or all of these factors insert a "margin for error" into the models.

It obviously speaks volumes to the confidence of the situation when SPC issues that 30% hatched 6-day outlook. But it also points out that there will be people rending their clothes and calling it a bust if the core development moves, say, 50 miles north, not realizing that a forecast even *that* accurate a week in advance was all-but unheard of sorcery a generation ago.

It's all about using the right tool for the right job. As I've said before, I love how NWS is trying to get it right, and seemingly the folks at KWTV are following suit. Cheers to 'em.

Interesting.

Do you think the biggest tornado threat on Tuesday will be with the first wave of supercells or will it continue overnight? Also, from that graphic it looks like enough could fire that they merge into a squal line. Am I wrong?

Yes, highest tornado threat will be with storms firing off of the dryline during daylight hours and shoving off to the ENE. Overnight development could also be supercell structure prone; however, we often see major cold pools and outflow boundaries set out from storms that tracked over an area previously. I would say the tornado threat during overnight hours is likely much lower. This is only based off experience, as that situation will be required to be nowcasted with daytime convection having significant effects.

You are also correct about the squall line - especially with OK being on the more northern end of the development, the atmosphere could be so incredibly ripe - that storms cannot remain isolated and end up fighting each other and eventually turn into a broken line that cannot get organized.

either way its coming and its not going to be pretty when it gets here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLJcjrwM6eY

Payne's forecast tonight was really awesome. No hype at all, hope he keeps this up.

SPC has maintain the 30 percent outlined risk area for Tuesday. Maybe nudged ever so slightly to the east.

Payne's forecast tonight was really awesome. No hype at all, hope he keeps this up.

And this morning's forecast with Lacey Swope/Jed Castles actually talked about the kinds of ingredients that have to be present - VERY informative, great balance of real met terminology with really no hype *at all*. No "TORCON INDEX" and no "Red Maps of Death." Swope was *very* cautious in saying, effectively "these are the kinds of ingredients, they're going to be present, but it's still several days out. Just keep this in the back of your mind as you plan for next Tuesday."

I don't think you could ask for a better-delivered severe forecast than that. Provide the information. Qualify the information. Encourage people to be informed.

Five-star props to KWTV in my book.

Really like this explanation for what is happening next week and the different variables that could be at play.

Severe Weather Update: Discussing Storms and Tornadoes - ATs Weather (http://aarontuttleweather.com/2016/04/21/severe-weather-update-discussing-storms-tornadoes/)

Really like this explanation for what is happening next week and the different variables that could be at play.

Severe Weather Update: Discussing Storms and Tornadoes - ATs Weather (http://aarontuttleweather.com/2016/04/21/severe-weather-update-discussing-storms-tornadoes/)

I never thought I'd actually say much if anything positive about AT's style, but I must admit that's a pretty balanced, reasonable, detailed explanation of what's up. Very much non-hyped as well.

I wonder if the Euro models that are starting to suggest the possibility of the dry-air mixdown are causing ALL the local TV mets to hedge their bets at least a bit. Anon, care to comment? Would love to hear Venture's thoughts as well...DARN him for moving away. :)

I like this KWTV graphic a lot….. It shows some rather serious and ominous information but because it was presented with calming words it didn’t upset the people who are prone to being upset about WX…. But if you knew something about what this information might mean for our future weather potential and were prone to Lilapsophobia it might be upsetting?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cgmo_FbU0AAUrF7.jpg:thumb

https://twitter.com/tornadopayne/status/723295018639740928

I never thought I'd actually say much if anything positive about AT's style, but I must admit that's a pretty balanced, reasonable, detailed explanation of what's up. Very much non-hyped as well.

I wonder if the Euro models that are starting to suggest the possibility of the dry-air mixdown are causing ALL the local TV mets to hedge their bets at least a bit. Anon, care to comment? Would love to hear Venture's thoughts as well...DARN him for moving away. :)

They are probably thinking that they can't out doom Morgan so why try? He has the fear market cornered.

This was posted at 11:00am 4/22/2016 on channel 5's website.

Severe weather outbreak looks more likely next week | Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com (http://www.koco.com/weather/severe-weather-outbreak-looks-more-likely-next-week/39164206)

I like this KWTV graphic a lot….. It shows some rather serious and ominous information but because it was presented with calming words it didn’t upset the people who are prone to being upset about WX…. But if you knew something about what this information might mean for our future weather potential and were prone to Lilapsophobia it might be upsetting?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cgmo_FbU0AAUrF7.jpg:thumb

I thought this graphic was great as well. It had actual meteorological information - instability/shear/jetstream/lift - presented in what I'd call an "audience-conscious" context. No fake jargon, no hype. I think it was very well thought out *and* presented. You could *easily* turn this kind of graphic into a doomer/gloomer presentation, but they didn't. As I said before, major props to KWTV. This is good stuff.

And this morning's forecast with Lacey Swope/Jed Castles actually talked about the kinds of ingredients that have to be present - VERY informative, great balance of real met terminology with really no hype *at all*. No "TORCON INDEX" and no "Red Maps of Death." Swope was *very* cautious in saying, effectively "these are the kinds of ingredients, they're going to be present, but it's still several days out. Just keep this in the back of your mind as you plan for next Tuesday."

I don't think you could ask for a better-delivered severe forecast than that. Provide the information. Qualify the information. Encourage people to be informed.

Five-star props to KWTV in my book.

That is why I really liked Mike Armstrong. I liked his "geeky" explanations of things. I honestly think that he should have been chief, but I think David had seniority over him.

NAM is popping 3 supercells tomorrow in W OK. Large hail looks likely with any development.

Any update on Tuesday?

Any update on Tuesday?

From NWS Today:

TUESDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER DAY. CURRENTLY...CONSENSUS INDICATES THE
DRYLINE/CONVECTIVE INITIATION WOULD BE JUST WEST OF I-35 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY
AND VERY STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TO GIANT HAIL. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST THE
TORNADO RISK MAY INCREASE AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
LOWER LCL HEIGHTS.

THE GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES ARE THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
AND THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST NAM IS SLOWER THAN BOTH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...WITH A
SLIGHT DISPLACEMENT IN SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE DOWNSTREAM
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THEREFORE...THERE MIGHT SOME VARIATIONS/SHIFTS IN
THE FORECAST...BUT BOTTOM LINE...BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY..ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY.

A BRIEF BREAK APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. FLOODING/FLASH
FLOODING COULD BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

THE NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER MIGHT BE
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
APPROACHES THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS THIS FAR
OUT....BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK.

NAM is popping 3 supercells tomorrow in W OK. Large hail looks likely with any development.

I was surprised to see the 12Z SPC WRF develop supercells all the way down into SW OK tracking ENE by tomorrow evening when most of the threat has been expected to be in northern OK. Just one piece of guidance, but like the discussion from the NWS notes, there's still disagreement about the southward extent of the threat.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/mxuphl_sc_f36.gif

http://i.imgur.com/fLArsBX.jpg

Surely things aren't looking that bad are they?

http://i.imgur.com/fLArsBX.jpg

Surely things aren't looking that bad are they?

I haven't seen this strongly worden language he is referring to. The last for cast discussen from Norman actually has a whole paragraph talking about uncertainties with the timing.

It wouldnt surprise me if they go with just a slight risk on the day 3 outlook tomorrow based on uncertainly.

I haven't seen this strongly worden language he is referring to. The last for cast discussen from Norman actually has a whole paragraph talking about uncertainties with the timing.

It wouldnt surprise me if they go with just a slight risk on the day 3 outlook tomorrow based on uncertainly.

It's technically the first time SPC has used the word "outbreak" on a Day 6 outlook, so that does imply a very serious situation, though I personally think Sowder's description is slightly hyperbolic. It is a very high end setup, but there are still some things that need to come together to make it worst ever, etc.

It's technically the first time SPC has used the word "outbreak" on a Day 6 outlook, so that does imply a very serious situation, though I personally think Sowder's description is slightly hyperbolic. It is a very high end setup, but there are still some things that need to come together to make it worst ever, etc.

What's your opinion on dryline placement? In terms of OKC impact, that is going to be key. Worst-case scenario would be for it to set up somewhere around El Reno. Better would be in far western Oklahoma, giving storms that develop time to merge into a squall line before reaching the metro or along I-35, in which greatest impact would be east of the metro. I don't want anybody to be hit, but if tornadoes have to happen, its best they stay away from densely populated areas.

I was surprised to see the 12Z SPC WRF develop supercells all the way down into SW OK tracking ENE by tomorrow evening when most of the threat has been expected to be in northern OK. Just one piece of guidance, but like the discussion from the NWS notes, there's still disagreement about the southward extent of the threat.

HRRR isn't buying anything south of C KS today. That WRF run showing those monster hailers in W OK seems outlying, but we will see what the CU fields say this afternoon.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0437.gif

Aaron Tuttle has mentioned the possibility of dry air filtering into western Oklahoma on Tuesday, pushing the prime tornado threat east of I-35. I really hope that's the case. I don't want to see anybody get hit but its Oklahoma and its springtime so there has to be tornadoes. With that in mind, it's best if they happen in primarily rural areas rather than in OKC.

As conditions continue to trend toward a very serious threat on Tuesday afternoon and as the forecast become more into focus it would be prudent IMO to make the decision on Monday evening to cancel activity’s and send as many people home from work / school as possible Tuesday before the expected threat time period.

We don’t need clogged interstates / streets and people in places with poor shelters when the storms hit.

Aaron Tuttle has mentioned the possibility of dry air filtering into western Oklahoma on Tuesday, pushing the prime tornado threat east of I-35. I really hope that's the case. I don't want to see anybody get hit but its Oklahoma and its springtime so there has to be tornadoes. With that in mind, it's best if they happen in primarily rural areas rather than in OKC.

Severe Storm Forecasting - Tornadoes Tuesday? - ATs Weather (http://aarontuttleweather.com/2016/04/24/severe-storm-forecasting-tornadoes-tuesday/)

An update.

Very surprised the SPC upgraded to a MDT and mentioned a high risk with all of the problems this set up has or, could have.

I'm thinking it could possibly be more because of hail, excluding the triple point.

I'd love your input Anon.

If I'm reading the SPC"s summary for tomorrow correctly, there are several variables that are in play for this development tomorrow - dryline timing/placement (which, I guess, is always the case), but also the possible development of two regions of storm - one in mid/N Central OK, and then another in N/NW Texas, both regions moving NNE very rapidly. They also talk about giant hail, as Dessert noted, and that may well be why they upgraded to a moderate....The 70's dewpoints are a big deal to me - mid/high 60's are normally fuel enough, but mid 70's are pretty stout fuel.

Solid points on the reasoning for the upgrade to moderate. I think too many people equate higher risk w/ tornadoes, even though it's simply a stated risk of severe storms, which could mean hail, wind, or tornadoes... or a combination thereof.