MD that is current. Basically warmer air is coming in just above the surface, and it is causing surface temps to rise slightly. Also this warmer air above will favor freezing rain.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2089.gif

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 272155Z - 280200Z

SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH 02Z.

DISCUSSION...A TRANSITION REGION WITH MIXED WINTER P-TYPES SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF W TX...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN N
TX...AND SWRN INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH 02Z AROUND THE ERN HALF OF A
CLOSED LOW NOW MOVING OVER THE BIG BEND REGION IN TX. TO THE W OF
THE MCD AREA...MAINLY SNOW SHOULD OCCUR AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. TO
THE E OF THE VERY SLOWLY SWD MOVING SFC WET-BULB FREEZING LINE...
MAINLY RAIN SHOULD FALL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS
THE TX BIG COUNTRY WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE MOVING NWD INTO THE
ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN N TX. RECENT SFC OBS ACROSS THIS REGION
INDICATE A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS OCCURRING
AS A WARM NOSE ALOFT ACTS ON HYDROMETEORS FALLING THROUGH THE
COLUMN. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL OK. PER RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE...THERE SHOULD BE A TENDENCY
FOR FREEZING RAIN TO BE CONFINED CLOSE TO/JUST W OF THE SFC WET-BULB
FREEZING LINE...WITH SLEET/SLOW MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH WWD EXTENT
ACROSS THE MCD AREA GIVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT/A LESS
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE. WHERE FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR...RATES MAY
EXCEED 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS.

..GLEASON.. 12/27/2015

The latest from Mike Morgan........
https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR

Now: 8PM Powers flashes west Metro/ W. OK. Continue....Powerless # climbing. Perfect Meteorlogical Track OKC Ice/S+

11982

Interesting that Mike is sticking with it... I think he's favoring NAM. GFS vs NAM is looking wildly different on total snowfall and precipitation; GFS seems to be indicating a lack of winter precip, whereas NAM seems to be indicating snowpocalypse for most of the metro. Assuming, of course, that I am interpreting the model data correctly.

You are correct. The NAM has been spot on for this entire event. Latest model data from NAM shows more of an icing and sleet event as opposed to snow.

Right now things are going downhill quick, at least in the N. Metro. I am in Edmond right now and can hear and see powerflashes. Not sure if it is from the wind blowing branches and powerlines, or from ice weighing them down etc. (probably a combination). Currently moderate freezing drizzle and light snow mix.

This icing will continue to take place, right now the metro is barely hanging onto 32F. The warm air aloft is trying its hardest to warm the surface layer, but it has failed all day.

Right now the low is starting its eastern and northeastern journey across TX. We will have to monitor how the precipitation bands come in overnight as the entire low will travel directly over Central OK. There will be multiple dryslots, and multiple heavy bands of precipitation.

Interesting that Mike is sticking with it... I think he's favoring NAM. GFS vs NAM is looking wildly different on total snowfall and precipitation; GFS seems to be indicating a lack of winter precip, whereas NAM seems to be indicating snowpocalypse for most of the metro. Assuming, of course, that I am interpreting the model data correctly.


OKC-Dry Slot. Appears much to do about nothing.

Honestly, if someone was totally in agreement with the NAM model, all the way up to the latest run, such a prediction would fall right in line with the forecast model. Forecasting is an imperfect science... Almost closer to an art. You're making an educated guess based upon the data available to you. Sometimes you get it wrong. As others have said, winter weather is notoriously difficult to predict. That is absolutely no reason to resort to name calling.

Is it not true that we have some of the best meteorologist in the country here at least I have read that somewhere. I think they do a great job overall.

What a crazy storm. The low is still tracking east near Dallas now. If it starts the turn north/northwest, C OK will see some decent snow this morning. But this thing was supposed to turn north about 5 hours ago.

Could have a snow deformation zone setup near I-35 if the thing spins north like models predicted, but as of now, just a guessing game with where this thing wants to go. lol...

Okay about 45 minutes from last post. It appears the turn has begun, could get some heavy snowfall totals right along I-35 corridor this morning. This may not be over just yet.

Okay another hour gone by. Low still tracking more east than north. Wrap-around sleet/snow could dissolve and reset itself over eastern OK.

Forecast was for ghis thing to "unwind" itself and push the precipitation out north and west. So far everything has been about eastward movement.

Okay another hour gone by. Low still tracking more east than north. Wrap-around sleet/snow could dissolve and reset itself over eastern OK.

Forecast was for ghis thing to "unwind" itself and push the precipitation out north and west. So far everything has been about eastward movement.

Thanks for the updates. Appreciated.

Shocked at how bad some of the streets are this morning. Guess I shouldn't be, but Hefner Parkway sheet of ice. Very dangerous! Be safe people!

Dry slot=OKC needs KY.....No I keep hearing dry slot and people around me get complacent and want to get out and make ridiculous plans...Plus as an ER nurse, the public need to hear zombies and nuclear bombs apparently to stay off road......for their toothache....that they've had for 10 years...that's suddenly an emergency on days like today...

Ok, this was just down right funny because it's so true.

An update from up the turnpike: Tulsa city roads are in fair to poor condition, of course it just depends if it's been treated (which none were on my way to work in South Tulsa). Lots of standing water that has been blocked by thick swaths of sleet and ice. I'd say the roads were staying mildly covered with the slick stuff. But, thankfully people were driving slower than normal and keeping their distance when at the intersections.

Yeah, most of the city streets on my drive in from the south side of OKC were just a sheet of ice. I-35 wasn't terrible, but except for right around the Dallas Junction (I-40/I-35/I-235) the roads did not appear to have been treated at all.

I do have to admit I'm rather disappointed the low tracked the way it did. I wanted some snow! Instead, the snow skipped right over central OK and went farther east :P Oh well, there's still plenty of winter left yet.

It's eerie how few cars on the roads downtown.

Western is covered in a sheet of ice but Classen is in pretty good condition.

Roads are pretty bad, for some reason the neighborhood roads are better than the main roads, at least in Edmond. I think what happened, is the slush and melting from cars on the main roads, refroze as a skating rink.

Western is covered in a sheet of ice but Classen is in pretty good condition.

I took it all the way from north 178th to downtown OKC on my way to work this morning. Wasn't bad at all then. Has it worsened?

Everything has improved from what I can tell from early this AM. Had no problems a few mins ago other than normal neighborhood issues but the main streets are good to go for now. May ice over again tonight some.

A FOOT of rain in some places in Eastern Okla. Amazing.

Interesting that Mike is sticking with it... I think he's favoring NAM. GFS vs NAM is looking wildly different on total snowfall and precipitation; GFS seems to be indicating a lack of winter precip, whereas NAM seems to be indicating snowpocalypse for most of the metro. Assuming, of course, that I am interpreting the model data correctly.

Is it true that Mike Morgan does not have a degree in meteorology?

I just want to make a little note here about how this storm system played out.

On Saturday morning NAM and GFS both predicted heaviest snow in the TX near Amarillo and up through the OK panhandle, then extending up through SW KS, through C KS, and up to the north and east from there. Blizzard and winter storm warnings were issued all throughout this area. Amarillo's original forecast was for easily over a foot of snow and locally 20"+. They ended up with 3.5" of dry snow, and north of that into the OK panhandle and SW KS, they got zero snow. This is the area that was forecast to get up to a foot of snow.

The track of this storm was completely rogue, it took a very southern stroll eastward through the middle of TX. The reasons you saw so many different forecasts, was each meteorologist was trying to predict when the low would make the turn to the north (as the models indicated for literally a week, and just 6-12 hours prior to the event).

When the low kept staying south, our local forecasts (including mine here) - went from heavy snow in the panhandles.. that didn't happen, to heavy snow NW OK.. that didn't happen, to heavy snow SW and C OK, that didn't happen either, to the actual occurrence of heavy sleet in the Tulsa metro this morning, that did not even have winter weather advisories posted until after the event was occurring.


Dry air... Stubbornly tracking Low... and imperfect forecast models.

Welcome to forecasting winter storms as they develop. :banghead:

My drive to work this morning was one of the worst I've ever experienced. May ave from Hefner to NW Expressway was a nightmare with cars all over the place. I would gladly take Mike Morgan's 8-10" of snow over ice any day of the week.

My drive to work this morning was one of the worst I've ever experienced. May ave from Hefner to NW Expressway was a nightmare with cars all over the place. I would gladly take Mike Morgan's 8-10" of snow over ice any day of the week.

Gotta agree with you on this!

Any hints yet as to when our next winter storm might be showing up after the little one forecast to come through northern Oklahoma tomorrow night?

My drive to work this morning was one of the worst I've ever experienced. May ave from Hefner to NW Expressway was a nightmare with cars all over the place. I would gladly take Mike Morgan's 8-10" of snow over ice any day of the week.

Absolutely right! Was awful this morning and was there a reason the roads had not been treated better? Memorial was about the only road/street that I was on this morning that wasn't horrible condition.

Any hints yet as to when our next winter storm might be showing up after the little one forecast to come through northern Oklahoma tomorrow night?

Nothin in sight as far as the 5 day outlook. Lets all hope we get a decent snow this year. At least 5-6 inches. Would rather have more but I'm not greedy and will take 1/2 foot. No ice just snow. I mean if it's going to be cold we might as well have snow,right?

Nothin in sight as far as the 5 day outlook. Lets all hope we get a decent snow this year. At least 5-6 inches. Would rather have more but I'm not greedy and will take 1/2 foot. No ice just snow. I mean if it's going to be cold we might as well have snow,right?

I agree

Nothin in sight as far as the 5 day outlook. Lets all hope we get a decent snow this year. At least 5-6 inches. Would rather have more but I'm not greedy and will take 1/2 foot. No ice just snow. I mean if it's going to be cold we might as well have snow,right?

There's no reason to have a 6" snow. This El Nino has been so moisturizing that we don't need a snowstorm just to please you guys.

We had a FANTASTIC December with every day but 3 in the 50s, 60s or 70's (YES 70's) before the downfall yesterday. Gimme that every December please!!

Oklahoma City December Weather 2015 - AccuWeather Forecast for OK 73102 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/oklahoma-city-ok/73102/december-weather/350143)

GFS suggests that there might be some cold rain or maybe winter precip around the weekend of Jan 9-10, but that far out there is a *lot* of uncertainty.

Does anyone else have a humid house since these storms moved through? Our walls are a little damp and the air is thick. I hope this isn't just me. I haven't had this problem before.

Moisture buildup and condensation can be issues in homes during extended cold snaps, so it is definitely not just you. I have had a ridiculous amount of water buildup on my windows, and I have noticed my towels do not dry very quickly after use. Since this is the first outbreak of cold weather you may just now notice it.

A house should be properly sealed but not too sealed, it has to breathe. Not a professional, but I don't feel like OKC is cold enough to warrant anything drastic on your end. You may just want to ventilate your home a bit better or crank up the heat a degree or two. At the most, you could always get a dehumidifier.

Short-lived snow band developing in TX PH now. Models track it through NW OK, will have to see if it builds further south for any C OK action.

Some decent snow banding developing in SW OK with this moisture-starved disturbance. Should be snowing in OKC in about an hour.

We need at least one good snow this year. I would really like to see what my son does when he sees his first snow.

We need at least one good snow this year. I would really like to see what my son does when he sees his first snow.

Take him to Colorado. :)

Take him to Colorado. :)

Yeah, good idea ;-)