Don't want the ice or the rain. Give us some healthy amounts of snow, that being said I'm betting the metro only gets a inch or 2.

I know I am prob. the opposite from most folks but I enjoyed the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009. I wouldn't mind having another one of those type events.

Just make a big pot of stew,chili,homemade turkey pot pie, hot chocolate,coffee and some good movies and you will be fine.

I know I am prob. the opposite from most folks but I enjoyed the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009. I wouldn't mind having another one of those type events.

Just make a big pot of stew,chili,homemade turkey pot pie, hot chocolate,coffee and some good movies and you will be fine.

Im the same way, but I would like to keep the power and the internet on if Im stuck inside with a teenager...

Multiple fatalities and large numbers of injuries and misery for thousands = blizzard of 2009.

A Review of the December 24, 2009 Christmas Eve Blizzard (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20091224)

I know I am prob. the opposite from most folks but I enjoyed the Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009. I wouldn't mind having another one of those type events.

Just make a big pot of stew,chili,homemade turkey pot pie, hot chocolate,coffee and some good movies and you will be fine.

That only works for people who don't have jobs they have to go to. :)

That only works for people who don't have jobs they have to go to. :)

This is true. Well it's looking like just rain from this storm so no blizzard warnings will be issued. The forecast changes every time I look at it. Latest forecast shows less than 1 inch of snow.

Two severe warned storms moving into OKC over the lunch hour, these will keep developing and lifting north throughout most of the afternoon. Once the low really starts cranking and sliding east, we will see the 32F line sag to the SE, this will be when the very difficult winter forecast begins.


Latest GFS and NAM both tracking low slightly further south and east on this afternoon's run. OKC is literally going to be on the edge of doomsday or cold rain and 34F. It may even split the NW/SE sides.

NAM is hinting at a dryslot for much of C OK during the bulk of icing, so C OK could be spared, or it could play out the exact opposite and we could get over half an inch of ice.

Winds will pick up substantially as the snow moves in late overnight Sunday evening. Any icing that occurred will have snow on top of it and strong winds. Power outages and any remaining "hanging" tree limbs from the Thanksgiving storm will likely give way.

This is true. Well it's looking like just rain from this storm so no blizzard warnings will be issued. The forecast changes every time I look at it. Latest forecast shows less than 1 inch of snow.

And YOU are who????

At least here on the north side we got a very good amount of rain just in a few hours. Just think if we were closer to our average temps/or a bit lower this would have been a massive winter storm. Still hoping we get some white stuff before its all said and done though.

And YOU are who????

11980

Any new updates? It seems that the main winter part of the storm is still hours out....but since it's closer, any speculation on dry slot vs snow vs ice and amounts?

Here is the cold air spilling in:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.WIND.grad.png

29 degrees in Guymon.....77 in Idabel.

Sidenote, OKC is about to break the all-time record for rainfall in a year.

Sidenote, OKC is about to break the all-time record for rainfall in a year.

Lovely. Sure do miss the weather we had up until yesterday. Not a fan of the monsoon or whatever we have coming next.

^Same here!!! Have done more outdoor activities this December than I can ever remember! However those appear to be over for 2015.

^Same here!!! Have done more outdoor activities this December than I can ever remember! However those appear to be over for 2015.

Yeah i have gone for a walk around the neighborhood nearly every day this week, also washed the cars, worked in the yard, and went to the zoo. I already have cabin fever and it hasn't even been a full day yet.

Ice Storm Warning for all of Western OK (Including Canadian County).

Winter Storm Warning for C OK (Including Oklahoma County).

And YOU are who????

Haha- The weather channel

Will post a full update later tonight. But the new NAM loading in is bad news for C OK. It takes the track further south and east. Could see Ice Storm Warnings pushed into OKC by morning.

Hey Global Warming, can I ask you just a tiny little favor?

Okay we have the latest GFS and NAM both loaded in. Both models moved the low's track slightly further south and east. This pulls the freezing line with it tonight into tomorrow. Both models indicate that around mid afternoon Sunday, there will be a dry slot and temperatures could warm above freezing in C OK. We will have to see if this actually happens, a dryslot may not develop, and we could have constant precip which will keep temperatures near the wet-bulb.

As the low really deepens and ejects out into the middle of TX, that is when the full cold air column pushes back east and we have a period of heavy snow with wrap-around. If the low can stay closed off and limit dry air penetration, the totals could be very significant, even in OKC. It will be a nowcast scenario and of course the temperatures will be everything.

Right now I would lean with the models and say the track could be further south and east, even by morning. I will keep an eye on it, as this could produce a significant icing scenario for OKC with a slight shift in 2-3 degrees.

Keep in mind, the icing will be nearly identical to the Thanksgiving storm, elevated surfaces, trees, powerlines. Roads should remain good until the sleet and snow really start getting going heading into Sunday night.

Did Morgan just say the metro was getting 4-8 inches of snow?

Okay we have the latest GFS and NAM both loaded in. Both models moved the low's track slightly further south and east. This pulls the freezing line with it tonight into tomorrow. Both models indicate that around mid afternoon Sunday, there will be a dry slot and temperatures could warm above freezing in C OK. We will have to see if this actually happens, a dryslot may not develop, and we could have constant precip which will keep temperatures near the wet-bulb.

As the low really deepens and ejects out into the middle of TX, that is when the full cold air column pushes back east and we have a period of heavy snow with wrap-around. If the low can stay closed off and limit dry air penetration, the totals could be very significant, even in OKC. It will be a nowcast scenario and of course the temperatures will be everything.

Right now I would lean with the models and say the track could be further south and east, even by morning. I will keep an eye on it, as this could produce a significant icing scenario for OKC with a slight shift in 2-3 degrees.

Keep in mind, the icing will be nearly identical to the Thanksgiving storm, elevated surfaces, trees, powerlines. Roads should remain good until the sleet and snow really start getting going heading into Sunday night.

Good stuff. Thanks.

Did Morgan just say the metro was getting 4-8 inches of snow?

Both models are suggesting at least the northwest sides could get that much (or more).


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015122700/namconus_asnow_us_20.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122700/gfs_asnow_us_10.png

I want to make note of our usual winter storm discussion. Local areas will get very high totals of snow depending on banding. Also the parameters look favorable for thundersnow as the low passes directly overhead. This could be 2" per hour rates over a small area. Early indications is that convective snow is most likely to occur in a corridor from about Lawton to just northwest of OKC.

There might me some wind damage in the state tonight. OK mesonet: Mangum 76 mph gust, medicine park 67mph, minco around 60mph.

This morning's NAM is in. It is about 2:30am while writing this. Freezing line is approaching OK county line right now. Will likely be approaching I-35 by 4am.

Latest NAM trends further south and east again. This time showing a closed-off low with minimal dryslot. Could be some very heavy freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Looks like it will be convective, so thunder will not be uncommon.

Roads will likely be fine for most of the day, until nightfall when the heavy sleet to snow moves in.


Will come back with updates in the morning with new GFS and noon hour NAM.

Getting some sleet now in downtown OKC.

Getting some sleet now in downtown OKC.

Sleet is accumulating in the grass up here in far NW OKC.

Yeah, it's now all sleet here and it's coming down hard.

Starting to pile up and get very icy.

A lot of sleet coming down with this wave. icing looks minimal thus far. Roads are definite sleet and snow covered, though.

Most of the OKC area is right at freezing, with north and west sides bumping from 31F to 32F.


New NAM shifts the low's track further south and east again (this is the 4th run in a row). Producing some intense wrap-around snow overnight.

Weirdly enough, the GFS has actually shifted the track back to the north and west.



The battle of 32F is setting up directly over OKC. We will have to see how it moves about today, one thing going for us - is the main precipitation is hitting during daylight hours - so some radiation melting will be occurring.

BTW, Ice Storm Warning has been extended a tier of counties further south:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.snowice.gif


As the sleet keeps coming down, it will help cool the air column and prevent too much freezing rain. However, roads will deteriorate quicker with sleet falling, melting - then refreezing.

One concern is that the sleet accumulating will keep the surface cold enough, and as the low comes out, more warmer air overrides in the upper levels of the atmosphere - causing freezing rain threat to increase.

We have some moderate sleet in MWC.

Still sleeting like crazy but also getting some light snow mixed in.

Ice starting to accumulate on trees in Yukon

MD is out in regards to the rest of this afternoon:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2081.gif

SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
WRN/NRN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX THROUGH 22Z.

DISCUSSION...AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW S OF EL PASO TX THIS MORNING
MOVES EWD TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF W TX BY THIS AFTERNOON...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
WRN/NRN/CNTRL OK. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE NWD OVER PORTIONS OF W TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. A
CORRIDOR OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION...
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A NNE-SSW
CORRIDOR FROM NRN OK SWD TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
PRONOUNCED +6.5 DEG C WARM NOSE ALOFT PRESENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM NORMAN OK SHOULD ENSURE THAT MOST HYDROMETEORS FALLING THROUGH
THIS LAYER SHOULD PARTIALLY/COMPLETELY MELT IN OK...AND THEN
REFREEZE WHERE SFC WET-BULB TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING.
ADDITIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM LAMONT OK...DODGE CITY KS...AND
AMARILLO TX SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL WARM NOSE IS LESS PRONOUNCED
WITH NWD/WWD EXTENT...AND A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET
TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FROM E TO W ACROSS THE MCD AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EWD AND MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL. FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH/HR MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS OK.

FURTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT
PRESENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS MOVING NWD ACROSS THIS
REGION...WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THUS
FAR. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM SERN NM SEWD INTO NRN
MEXICO...MOVING NWD WITH TIME. INITIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. BUT WITH ADDITIONAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL COOLING FORECAST ACROSS W
TX LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW SHOULD SLOWLY OCCUR FROM SW TO
NE.

..GLEASON.. 12/27/2015

NWS cancelling warnings across SW Kansas in response to the new track guidance given by models.

The heaviest snow looks like it could be laid just west of OKC. Any further deviations south will bring that swath with it. it is going to be a very narrow corridor of heavy accumulation.

NWS cancelling warnings across SW Kansas in response to the new track guidance given by models.

The heaviest snow looks like it could be laid just west of OKC. Any further deviations south will bring that swath with it. it is going to be a very narrow corridor of heavy accumulation.

So 4-8 inches of snow for NW OKC? That is what the worthless channel is saying.

I just returned from driving in the areas bordered by NW 178th, NW 164th, Western & May and the roads are slick. I wouldn't call them hazardous because a little caution is sufficient but you will slide out while turning if you aren't careful.

So 4-8 inches of snow for NW OKC? That is what the worthless channel is saying.

The big 3 were pretty much in consensus that the metro was getting 2-4.

Here is my thinking based on current nowcast situation with the low coming out in SW TX.

Any variances in the track to the south or north will pull the heavy snow with it. We are talking just 10-20 miles being a huge difference.

Again this is for precipitation starting tonight. Currently the dryslot if filling in across NW TX with convective thunderstorms overriding up into the cold air sector. This will continue to fill in across SW OK and push over the state as the main low deepens.

http://i.imgur.com/KmXRIc5.jpg

Here is my thinking based on current nowcast situation with the low coming out in SW TX.

Any variances in the track to the south or north will pull the heavy snow with it. We are talking just 10-20 miles being a huge difference.

Again this is for precipitation starting tonight. Currently the dryslot if filling in across NW TX with convective thunderstorms overriding up into the cold air sector. This will continue to fill in across SW OK and push over the state as the main low deepens.

http://i.imgur.com/KmXRIc5.jpg

If that Low comes down 50 miles further to the east OKC would get dumped on. It appears from looking at the radar OKC area is in a dry slot.

Mike Morgan posted this a few minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/681212290176135172/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Yikes! Okay the low is sinking further south in TX, it was forecasted to have already made the turn north/northeast. It is tracking south east to the south of San Angelo, TX.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2015122700/wrf-arw_asnow_us_48.png

Yikes! Okay the low is sinking further south in TX, it was forecasted to have already made the turn north/northeast. It is tracking south east to the south of San Angelo, TX.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2015122700/wrf-arw_asnow_us_48.png

SO I am guessing by this and everything else I have been reading about the track of the low this means OKC is in the bullseye for heavy snow tonight?

Timeline from Mike Morgan on what to expect: I am guessing this is real and not hype based on what Anon posted above.

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR

when mm says "record okc snowfall", okc's record for a day is what, 11-12"

news still has okc in the 1-4" range.

Timeline from Mike Morgan on what to expect: I am guessing this is real and not hype based on what Anon posted above.

https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR

Sounds like hype to me. It's not doing anything right now and the radar shows heavy rain to the east and not moving toward OKC. Looks like we are in that dry slot they were talking about. And weather channel now showing less than an inch in okc area.

Sounds like hype to me. It's not doing anything right now and the radar shows heavy rain to the east and not moving toward OKC. Looks like we are in that dry slot they were talking about. And weather channel now showing less than an inch in okc area.

W/e we are going to get wont be here until the overnight hours.

Total waste of time forecasting winter storms. Nowcasting is the only thing that works. Weathermen should just be on air to provide road conditions during the winter.

Sounds like hype to me. It's not doing anything right now and the radar shows heavy rain to the east and not moving toward OKC. Looks like we are in that dry slot they were talking about. And weather channel now showing less than an inch in okc area.

You are obsessed with this dry slot. I had tons at least 2 inches of sleet this morning up in Piedmont. Now from ANON and Mike Morgan, I'm assuming that this isn't a lucky dry slot right now...Its the calm before the ACTUAL storm arrives later tonight...The question was where the low tracked....If it spit out where it's spitting out now or any further south...we ., in OKC , were to get a massive blizzard. The dry slot was a ray of hope if it tracked further north......so is it safe to assume from ANONs that the dry slot wish went home with Santa??!! I would much rather have 3 feet of snow then any ice.....

I have revised my own map from earlier based upon nowcast setup and the latest model data:

Thunder snow will be possible closest to the actual low's center. This will be right on the edge of the freezing line as elevated storms and showers will develop on the "warm" eastern side and ride across from east to west over the freezing line. This is where snowfall rates could be 2" per hour or more.

http://i.imgur.com/6EBpzSB.jpg

I have revised my own map from earlier based upon nowcast setup and the latest model data:

Thunder snow will be possible closest to the actual low's center. This will be right on the edge of the freezing line as elevated storms and showers will develop on the "warm" eastern side and ride across from east to west over the freezing line. This is where snowfall rates could be 2" per hour or more.

http://i.imgur.com/6EBpzSB.jpg

Although we're sort of in a nowcasting situation, what's the rough general timeline for this to go down?

You are obsessed with this dry slot. I had tons at least 2 inches of sleet this morning up in Piedmont. Now from ANON and Mike Morgan, I'm assuming that this isn't a lucky dry slot right now...Its the calm before the ACTUAL storm arrives later tonight...The question was where the low tracked....If it spit out where it's spitting out now or any further south...we ., in OKC , were to get a massive blizzard. The dry slot was a ray of hope if it tracked further north......so is it safe to assume from ANONs that the dry slot wish went home with Santa??!! I would much rather have 3 feet of snow then any ice.....


I am not the one that came up with the Dry Slot but it does appear that OKC is in the DRY SLOT right now. Maybe we will wake up in the morning with 10+ inches of snow as the DRY SLOT leaves us behind. But then again maybe the DRY SLOT hangs around. Weather channel has less than 1 inch in OKC.

I find that the weather channel is lacking. I dont even use them as an app on my phone...

I am only estimating based upon experience and the latest radar and model trends. It is still possible a huge swath of dry air can come in and tear up the system. This is why these winter storms are so difficult to forecast, it is almost impossible to get it right based upon data alone. You have to use radar trends and constant model guidance to get an idea of what is actually possible.

And right now, the possibility of heavy snowfall to occur over W, C, and N OK is there - when just 24 hours ago, it looked like a blizzard for the panhandles and SW Kansas. Now those places aren't even under any type of watch or warning, things change constantly. And predicting snowbands is probably one of the most frustrating things to do.

Anyways, currently the low is still churning along, moving very slowly across TX. Freezing drizzle is falling over much of the OKC metro, especially western sides.

One thing I want to point out, is the atmosphere is favorable to sleet right now, the air column isn't cooled all the way up yet, so we could have a layer of sleet falling on top of the already ice and sleet covered surfaces, then followed by snow. Also more sleet means less snow amounts.

Right now I have no clue as to how much snow could fall in OKC, models suck @ predicting snow/sleet/ice zones.

I am only estimating based upon experience and the latest radar and model trends. It is still possible a huge swath of dry air can come in and tear up the system. This is why these winter storms are so difficult to forecast, it is almost impossible to get it right based upon data alone. You have to use radar trends and constant model guidance to get an idea of what is actually possible.

And right now, the possibility of heavy snowfall to occur over W, C, and N OK is there - when just 24 hours ago, it looked like a blizzard for the panhandles and SW Kansas. Now those places aren't even under any type of watch or warning, things change constantly. And predicting snowbands is probably one of the most frustrating things to do.

Anyways, currently the low is still churning along, moving very slowly across TX. Freezing drizzle is falling over much of the OKC metro, especially western sides.

One thing I want to point out, is the atmosphere is favorable to sleet right now, the air column isn't cooled all the way up yet, so we could have a layer of sleet falling on top of the already ice and sleet covered surfaces, then followed by snow. Also more sleet means less snow amounts.

Right now I have no clue as to how much snow could fall in OKC, models suck @ predicting snow/sleet/ice zones.

I did catch a break in regular programming and Mike Morgan I thought said 10+ inches and he was sticking with it. I don't know what to believe and every time I look at the weather channel on the PC it changes. Now they have 1-3 inches and when I checked a couple hrs. ago it said less than an inch. So it appears that no one really knows what's going to come of this. Lets just hope MM is correct and we get huge snow without the ice. NikonNurse will be happy and we can quit talking about the Dry Slot. Now back to Football. Thanks for all the help.

I am not the one that came up with the Dry Slot but it does appear that OKC is in the DRY SLOT right now. Maybe we will wake up in the morning with 10+ inches of snow as the DRY SLOT leaves us behind. But then again maybe the DRY SLOT hangs around. Weather channel has less than 1 inch in OKC.

Dry slot=OKC needs KY.....No I keep hearing dry slot and people around me get complacent and want to get out and make ridiculous plans...Plus as an ER nurse, the public need to hear zombies and nuclear bombs apparently to stay off road......for their toothache....that they've had for 10 years...that's suddenly an emergency on days like today...

Dry slot=OKC needs KY.....No I keep hearing dry slot and people around me get complacent and want to get out and make ridiculous plans...Plus as an ER nurse, the public need to hear zombies and nuclear bombs apparently to stay off road......for their toothache....that they've had for 10 years...that's suddenly an emergency on days like today...

Haha. Well I just looked at radar again and sure enough,it does appear that OKC is in a dry slot. People get cabin fever if the weather gets bad for a couple days. They just have to get out even if they have no place to go. But I just just got a text that Chan 5 is reporting around 3 inches of snow so maybe the ER won't be too busy because of this storm. So from everywhere I have checked MM is the only one predicting record breaking snow. I don't know if he's changed that prediction from earlier in the day but I haven't heard anyone else predicting that.