I think a new month has started.

Hmmm...GFS may be hinting at a stormy setup on Thursday? Pretty good difference in airmasses in advance of a fairly stout storm system presently off the west coast, might be dipping down and heading this way out of the desert SW, riding the jetstream. Interesting to watch as the week unfolds, especially given that we really haven't had our fairly typical secondary fall severe season...

GFS still suggesting a possibly stormy setup for Thursday, but timing (as always) is the issue. Looks like a dryline could set up and trigger around of storms in or around the I-35 corridor during the day/early afternoon best I can tell.

Anon, that match up what you're seeing? I'm just posting this on the basis of my very crude review of one GFS animation....so if I'm wrong, someone needs to hit me with a shovel :)

https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/t31.0-8/12189206_10153723581499169_4415804106578626933_o.p ng

Just posting a quick update here...btw, I make no pretense of being any Venture or Anon here, but figure I could post a general update :)

The latest GFS run I saw, which I think came up just an hour or so ago, really appears to back off some on the amount of storm formation over OK over the next 24 hours. It appears to focus the storms overnight and early morning into north central Texas, and then with later redevelopment in SE Oklahoma. This is, I think, in contrast to the last run that showed formation farther north into western OK overnight, then again in the afternoon near or east of the I-44 corridor. Right now, it looks like GFS is keeping activity generally out of central OK - western storms fading out by AM drive time, and the dryline pushing out such that later formation is farther east. As Venture often has said, will be interesting to see what the *next* GFS run has to say :)

Took a look at what purports to be a NAM run that, at a glance, seems to be agreeing at least generally with the GFS - some storms in W/SW OK, but heavier/stronger development later in the afternoon father to the E/SE.

Think the amount of moisture and the strength of the storm system out west and really strong jetstream sure lend itself to a forecast that includes the possibility of storms anywhere ahead of the region where the dryline pushes out. Pinpointing exactly where any given storm might form is obviously a fairly volatile thing to forecast.

EDIT: Just saw where Reed Timmer is apparently putting out (or did put out yesterday) a bit of hype with "high confidence" of "supercells and tornadoes," but the NWS convective forecast for tomorrow puts at 15% risk for severe thunderstorms in a region roughly south and east of a line following I-44 from Lawton to OKC and then east along I40. Their discussion suggests supercells are possible, but they have not yet issued any mesoscale discussions nor emphasized any especially significant severe risk for tomorrow. They tend to emphasize the north Texas region as the best bet for stronger weather, which seems to match up with what I think the GFS and the NAM each showed.

^ spot on.

SE OK could get in on some legit severe weather (damaging winds is my guess).

The rest of the state can expect showers and storms of a non-severe variety, especially in the morning Thursday.

^ spot on.

SE OK could get in on some legit severe weather (damaging winds is my guess).

The rest of the state can expect showers and storms of a non-severe variety, especially in the morning Thursday.

Thanks, Anon :)

GFS seems to be backing off even more on the intensity of activity around OK for Thursday, but continues to persist a general rain pattern around the bulk of the state tomorrow. It appears to limit stronger storms to the extreme SE corner of the state and into N. Texas from around Dallas NE into SE OK and SW Arkansas. NAM seems to push off the stormier weather even farther NE.

Those models, combined with the latest soundings showing a distinct lack of instability, all tend to diminish the notion of any broad severe weather for tomorrow. Looks like a general rain/t-storm pattern, in a couple of waves, with the stronger development potential restricted to the far SE corner of the state.

I'll be curious to see if SPC alters/reduces their slight/marginal risk areas if GFS continues its trend on the next run, particularly given that NAM seems to generally concur.

SPC has fallen in line with the latest GFS and NAM runs, and has reduced the slight risk area to the extreme south-central part of the state along the TX border just east of I35. Most of Oklahoma is in only a marginal risk now, while the slight risk area pushes off into the DFW area. Rain and a few possibly noisy storms w/gusty winds and small hail possible in the state in advance of the dryline later in the day, but severe potential is very low. Dryline pushes thru central OK midday, so once it passes the rain /storm chances go with it.

Storms coming up now just west of C OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1925.gif



Like SPC, should just see garden variety rain and storms, maybe a severe storm or two at one point depending on evolution.

OKC is back in the Slight Risk Area and also under 2% for a Tornado and 15% for Wind

OKC is back in the Slight Risk Area and also under 2% for a Tornado and 15% for Wind

117531175411755

Hey Anon,

In looking at this last update from SPC, am I reading their summary correctly to say that a "wedge" of surface-based warm air has created just enough instability in advance of the front to increase the chances for slightly stronger storm development in SE/C OK up toward KS? There's quite a bit of analytical/technical terminology in there I just don't know, so I thought I'd bounce my best understanding off someone who does :)

Yea basically the plan was for some of the dry air to mix out some of the moisture over C OK and primarily leave the heavy dewpoints in SE OK.

However, that never happened and most of the state right now is 65F DP or higher, some 70Fs down south. So any initiation to the west of this air mass has some solid fuel. I still think severe storms will be isolated, but the possibility is present.



http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png?1446735087109

Yea basically the plan was for some of the dry air to mix out some of the moisture over C OK and primarily leave the heavy dewpoints in SE OK.

However, that never happened and most of the state right now is 65F DP or higher, some 70Fs down south. So any initiation to the west of this air mass has some solid fuel. I still think severe storms will be isolated, but the possibility is present.



http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png?1446735087109

Great explanation, Anon. Thanks.

So, this was an as-it-developed observation/outcome, hence the models never had any reason to consider it, correct? Is there an overarching reason why that dry-air "mixout" didn't happen as expected, or is it more of a "hey, that's just how nature played out this time" scenario?

I think it was just the timing of the coveted double dryline we sometimes see. Usually it is more extreme, but this scenario the eastern dryline hardly moved east, and is almost indistinguishable from main line out in W OK.

Storms starting to ramp up now, heading into OKC near Tuttle, officially a severe storm at this time. Looks like some good action down near Wichita Falls.

Looks like the potential near and east of OKC is ramping up somewhat per the ingredients Anon discussed above. SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion for the region covering the midday hours and likelihood of at least a severe t-storm watch later in the day.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1926 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/md1926.html)

TOR Watch issued for basically eastern half of OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0531_radar.gif


Storms in SC OK are worth watching.

Anyone know if we're going to get another wave besides this one sometime later today?

Post deleted due to similar already posted.

Nope, this is it in terms of significant precip.

Sun is out just west of this development line.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png

Thanks!

Holy crap. I went home at lunch here in Norman and ran into this mess. The rain and wind were very strong. Couldn't see about 5 feet in front of me. It passed over I35 so I bet traffic was at a stand still there.

I just pulled over into a gas station and waited it out for 10 minutes

What happened to the cool info and graphics usually found in the top post?

Holy crap. I went home at lunch here in Norman and ran into this mess. The rain and wind were very strong. Couldn't see about 5 feet in front of me. It passed over I35 so I bet traffic was at a stand still there.

I just pulled over into a gas station and waited it out for 10 minutes
It was the same way mid morning in Stillwater, though I didn't notice much wind. Parts of Stillwater got over an inch. The storm bands were narrow and one had to be well under them to get the full downpour, so I got only .68" while Stillwater Airport had 1.30".

What happened to the cool info and graphics usually found in the top post?

venture moved and I don't know the script to put all those things in.

That storm yesterday in Harrah was stunningly powerful. We had at least 60 MPH winds, multiple branches knocked down at the store, the front doors of the building were open at the time (sliding doors) and dime sized hail blew in about 8 feet into the building. We had standing water in the entry way after about two minutes and as soon as it arrived it was gone. It left a few dozen cars in the parking lot with hail damage.

I drove out to Amarillo from OKC on Wednesday (4th) and ran into a dust storm when I hit Texas.

Then on Thursday (5th), it was extremely windy all day. Felt like I was getting sandblasted.

venture moved and I don't know the script to put all those things in.

Anon, I think those were just URL's pasted in with various BBCode links in the article/thread title. If you have some or any of them, I could try putting them in there.

Yea they are, but I don't have it in the right format, I tried quoting one of his OPs - but it does not come across in the editing friendly format.

Long-term GFS painting cold and wet pattern heading into December.

Any idea what the weather looks like on Wednesday?

Any idea what the weather looks like on Wednesday?

Ditto! Forecast, please. Seeing rain and high winds, but then seeing rain chances diminishing. Asking about an outdoor event that day for Veteran's Day.

GFS showing a storm churning in and through the higher plains on Wednesday, with considerable instability much farther NE up toward Missouri/Iowa - enough for SPC to put out an "Enhanced" risk for the region. The eastern half of Oklahoma, in contrast, is at the "marginal risk" western edge of that broader forecast area, dividing the state right along I-35.

NAM shows a similar setup, with scattered precip Wednesday AM and more general precipitation forming along and east of I-35 around midday, pushing out through the afternoon and evening. Right now, the greater risk for stronger/severe weather appears to be well NE of Oklahoma. Chances for rain Wednesday diminish as you go father west as it appears now.

Yup, looks like cooler with ridiculous wind on Wednesday.

Long-range GFS keeps getting crazier. Highs around Thanksgiving look like they may not make freezing.

Long-range GFS keeps getting crazier. Highs around Thanksgiving look like they may not make freezing.

I would love this.

Yup, looks like cooler with ridiculous wind on Wednesday.

Long-range GFS keeps getting crazier. Highs around Thanksgiving look like they may not make freezing.

So you're saying a bounce house may not be a good idea? LOL

So a bounce house may not be a good idea?

You might have the world's first life-size, DIY snowglobe :)

Would anyone believe me if I said bread and milk watch for the middle of next week?

Would anyone believe me if I said bread and milk watch for the middle of next week?

Please no.

Would anyone believe me if I said bread and milk watch for the middle of next week?

So that means we will be seeing a inch and a 1/2 of snow right...........

Would anyone believe me if I said bread and milk watch for the middle of next week?


How confident are you in this scenario unfolding? So far I haven't gotten any indication of enough cold air to warrant any type of winter precip except maybe a few flurries in the north part of the state.

How confident are you in this scenario unfolding? So far I haven't gotten any indication of enough cold air to warrant any type of winter precip except maybe a few flurries in the north part of the state.

Day 8 on the GFS I think shows at least a notion of a wedge of cold air in the central/lower plains - not a huge mass of arctic air, but a pretty cold snap with some moisture. At least I *think* that's what I'm seeing, may be reading it completely wrong :) A week out, yeah, you take it with a grain of salt, but you at least keep watching it :) :)

Day 8 on the GFS I think shows at least a notion of a wedge of cold air in the central/lower plains - not a huge mass of arctic air, but a pretty cold snap with some moisture. At least I *think* that's what I'm seeing, may be reading it completely wrong :) A week out, yeah, you take it with a grain of salt, but you at least keep watching it :) :)

True, was just wondering if this was something for sure or not before getting all excited about it.

GFS dumps heavy wet snow across northwestern half of the state. Obviously this will change, but to be fair, it has been consistent the last 2 or 3 days.

If anything, it means it could easily be our first solid freeze.

GFS dumps heavy wet snow across northwestern half of the state. Obviously this will change, but to be fair, it has been consistent the last 2 or 3 days.

If anything, it means it could easily be our first solid freeze.

Cool, thanks please keep us posted on this. I am hoping that with the strong El Nino this year will be more wintery with precip around here instead of our usual 1-2" systems and then the next day or even that day it melts and we are back to our usual brown and cold winter.

Just what us in the grocery industry would hate to deal with, a snow alert right before Thanksgiving. :( Talk about a one-two punch.

GFS dumps heavy wet snow across northwestern half of the state. Obviously this will change, but to be fair, it has been consistent the last 2 or 3 days.

If anything, it means it could easily be our first solid freeze.

I wouldn't mind a hard freeze to finally kill off my rather withered but not yet quite dormant/dead petunias. :)

schizo weather in DFW... 80 today 64 tomorrow.

I wouldn't mind a hard freeze to finally kill off my rather withered but not yet quite dormant/dead petunias. :)

I'd sooner the first freeze put off. My begonias have made a big come back, since the hot weather quit.

I'd sooner the first freeze put off. My begonias have made a big come back, since the hot weather quit.

They will soon be begoneias.

They will soon be begoneias.

11791

Winner, Post of the Day contest.

:)

Models still going with rain Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

Backing off on precipitation for OK for the mid-week storm that would be around Tuesday and Wednesday, but still looks like temperatures could be near or below freezing after the storm passes.

They will soon be begoneias.

Low here was 33 and looks like they survived. Next bad morning looks like the Saturday on the 21st.

Storm system early this coming week is looking more and more powerful. Severe storms look likely, followed by freezing temps. Frozen precipitation looks doubtful.

Day 2 enhanced risk expanded

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING ON MONDAY. AN
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE SHOULD FORM MONDAY NIGHT AND PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL SHIFT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY TUE. POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM AZ/NM TOWARDS THE WRN
KS VICINITY. A 100-KT 500-MB SPEED MAX SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK
BY 12Z/TUE. A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO CNTRL KS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
OVERTAKE THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE...ACCELERATING E TOWARDS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.

...SRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS...
PRIMARY CHANGES THIS OUTLOOK ARE TO EXPAND ALL PROBABILITIES
NWD/SEWD AND ADD A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE AREA. PARTS OF THE REGION
CENTERED ON THE RED RIVER APPEAR PLAUSIBLE FOR AN UPGRADE TO A
TORNADO OR WIND-DRIVEN MODERATE RISK IN D1 OUTLOOKS.

WHILE THE RICHEST MARITIME TROPICAL AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE SWRN GULF
THIS MORNING PER GOES PW IMAGERY...MODIFICATION FARTHER N IN TX IS
WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE D2 PERIOD.
LOW 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH THE WRN OK/KS BORDER BY MON
EVENING WITH MID 50S TO THE NEB/KS BORDER. TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY
BETWEEN 21-00Z AS ROBUST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA OVERSPREAD THE
DRYLINE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE DOES EXIST AS GUIDANCE VARIES IN THE DEGREE OF
STRATUS. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN IF HEATING IS LIMITED...STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY. STRONG
LOW TO DEEP SHEAR WILL YIELD ELONGATED AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR MAINLY DISCRETE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF FORCING AND SURGING OF THE COMPOSITE PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE. AN INCREASINGLY EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED MON
NIGHT FROM KS TO TX THAT SHOULD RAPIDLY PROGRESS TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL PRE-SQUALL LINE TSTMS MAY FORM EARLY
TUE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN TX WITHIN THE RICHLY BUOYANT MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS.

SETUP SHOULD FAVOR A MULTI-FACETED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH
THE TORNADO RISK BEING THE MOST PROMINENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED
RIVER. HIGHER-END SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL MAY WEAKEN TOWARDS 12Z/TUE
OWING TO THE INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE MEAN WIND
FIELDS RELATIVE TO THE SQUALL LINE/FRONT. BUT THIS COULD BE
COMPENSATED BY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE RED RIVER AND STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT.

11800

Hey Anon, can we get a detailed forest? Venture has abandoned us lol. :D

Hey until Anon can give us a more detailed scoop, I'll offer this...

The setup is there for at least the potential of a significant severe weather episode from Monday night into Tuesday morning. Gulf moisture is moving back through north Texas and will come into SC/SW OK, which will put dewpoints in the 60's in advance of a strong storm system heading in from the west. Right now, the forecast indicates an environment conducive for supercells and what we'd normally hear as the potential for "all modes" of severe weather. The duration of the highest potential for tornadic activity *could* be limited by certain factors, but it seems the SPC is erring on the side of caution and leaning toward the ingredients being more likely than not to persist for a time.

The NAM, which seems to align with the SPC summary posted above, suggests the formation of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms in western OK and migrating east through the early morning hours Tuesday. The greatest tornado threat, if I'm reading this correctly, will be *early* in this "window" and thus more focused in the SW part of OK, perhaps near the Red River, but as we all know, the volatility of these setups could cause the area of concern to move as each later forecast evolves. The squall line is shown to widen and push through the central OK/I-35 region approximately in the 4-7AM time frame, so the drive time to work Tuesday morning may be interesting. The severe threat pushes east of OK by mid/late afternoon.

These setups can obviously change rapidly as those of us who live here know, so the biggest takeaway is, as always, stay aware of conditions - just be informed of the potential for severe weather late tomorrow night into Tuesday morning, and plan accordingly. Remember, too, that a fall severe weather season is entirely normal for Oklahoma - just seems to be a bit late arriving this year.

All observations here are subject to review and correction by Anon, but I think that's a fair overview. Late Monday/overnight into Tuesday looks to be a pretty stormy time for a good part of OK.

I will look at what we have in the morning, daytime convection will have huge impact on the events of the night.

Here is SPC's morning prediction on tornado threat. Notice it is confined to a small area relative to the overall larger severe-criteria area. Damaging winds looks like the main threat for C and E OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif?1447686071344

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png

As of now, not much fuel for these storms to get too rowdy. If the clouds continue to clear out in W OK and start here in C OK, we could see some stronger business.

Latest NAM fires storms further west than was showing the last few runs, which would focus the Tornado chances further out there (Eastern TX panhandle), and less to the east. This storm system is basically going to be so strong that it will fire the entire line and congeal any discrete supercells rather quickly, especially heading into the nighttime hours.

So if you are in western OK, keep an eye on storms once they develop, any discrete cells will be rotating. Hail and tornado main threat. As nightfalls - C OK prepare for potentially damaging winds and short-lived heavy rain.