SPC agrees with post above, trimming back highest tornado threat to the West.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif?1447694428098

First MD of the day is out.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1947.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX...OK PANHANDLE...FAR SE
CO...SW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 161844Z - 162115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS
THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
INCREASE. A TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WW ISSUANCE
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE MCD AREA BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995 MB LOW OVER SE CO WITH
A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK. SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F IN NW TX AND IN THE MID 50S F ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND SW KS. INSTABILITY HAS STEADILY INCREASED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN
THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED EXPANSION IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE
INSTABILITY...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ARE
SHOWING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE NWD
INTO SW KS WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ESTIMATED FROM 55 TO 70 KT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY AS
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONSIDERING THE FAST NEWD MOVEMENT OF CELLS AT NEAR 50 KT...A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL
JET MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES...SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 11/16/2015

And immediate TOR watch follows:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0537_radar_big.gif

Action out in the Texas panhandle hasn't really ramped up all that much...

New MD says tornado threat will increase as low-level moisture/shear/instability will increase over the next few hours.

4 monster supercells in TX and KS. Most have produced so far, and one has put out a mile wide wedge that has done damage.

Apparently a large tornado heading eventually towards Arnett

Tornado watch for metro incoming from the sounds of it...

Where did you hear that?

I have doubts about a TOR watch, but 100% a severe storm watch will be issued. Storms are already lining out, the last discrete supercell is headed into the armpit of OK right now.

I stand corrected. Just expanded original watch to barely include OKC. This is likely to have the inclusiveness of potential small spinups along the main line of storms. And any cells out front of it that could rotate before being absorbed.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0540_radar.gif

Should I go ahead and stay up until this thing comes on through? I don't own a weather radio so, I'm not sure.

What time is this line due through the metro? Around 3 am or so?

What time is this line due through the metro? Around 3 am or so?

It is a little west of Hinton right now so I would expect earlier than that.

Should I go ahead and stay up until this thing comes on through? I don't own a weather radio so, I'm not sure.
You can tune in the OKC NOAA weather station online here provided it's working online: NOAA Weather Radio Player (http://stillwaterweather.com/noaawxradio.html)

Tomorrow morning should be pretty cold. High temps this weekend look to be in the 40s, first real jacket-all-day kind of weather this season.

Next storm comes in around Thanksgiving.

Any bread and milk in the long range forecast?

GFS hinting at a classic southern stream winter storm coming through around December 3rd.

Anyone see the news that October was, globally, the warmest month relative to to its average temperature ever recorded? Also the warmest October ever recorded, but that first fact, yikes.

Anyone see the news that October was, globally, the warmest month relative to to its average temperature ever recorded? Also the warmest October ever recorded, but that first fact, yikes.

Should probably move this to the Climate Change thread, since this is the November weather thread...

Well it's been a pretty warm November ;) it snowed twice this time last year. The report just came out yesterday.

The 10-day GFS is looking very interesting, particularly as it starts to include this possibility of cold, wet, wintery weather over the broader Thanksgiving weekend.

Thanksgiving Day itself right now, particularly into the afternoon/early evening, stands a good chance of being pretty soggy at least in the C/SE part of the state as the model run looks right now, with the colder weather trying to push in behind it on Friday and over the weekend. For the weekend, the model right now tends to show a mass of precip forming Saturday along and E/S of a roughly I-44 line, with the colder airmass dancing tantalizingly south toward roughly the I-40 region. Obviously, relying on an exact placement of an airmass or precipitation region a week out is specious, but right now the takeaway is that there does exist the possibility of at-or-near freezing temps and precipitation for the OU-OSU game up in Stillwater.

Obviously if that model changes in terms of how far south the freezing airmass pushes, or where/if any precip forms, the outlook can change, but the takeaway for now is winter weather is possible next weekend.

Stay tuned for later refinements as the week progresses.

^spot on^

This is the GFS he is speaking of, we will have better picture in NAM window heading into the week. Latest GFS shows 8+inches of snow along and south of I-44 heading into weekend after Thanksgiving.

Bottomline, colder weather is coming and storm systems are lining up out in the Pacific.

Are you referring to the weekend of Nov 28-29th or the weekend of Dec 5-6th?



^spot on^

This is the GFS he is speaking of, we will have better picture in NAM window heading into the week. Latest GFS shows 8+inches of snow along and south of I-44 heading into weekend after Thanksgiving.

Bottomline, colder weather is coming and storm systems are lining up out in the Pacific.

28-29.

Well, just as was noted on the last post, each model run can change a few things.

Current GFS keeps 60's and a fairly sustained rain pattern in most of OK for Thanksgiving day, with a big cold front sweeping through sometime overnight Thursday/early Friday and pushing the rain out along with it. Behind the front, Friday into the weekend looks like a setup for a batch of really cold (as in sustained sub-freezing) weather, but the precipitation that appeared in the prior runs is now pushed well SE of the state.

Looks like the chances for an Ice Bowl II between OU and OSU on Saturday have dropped considerably with the moisture being pushed out, but man, it's likely to be a cold one!!!

Of note... My Wunderground weather app is usually spot on and the forecast on there for this coming weekend is 70 and 60 percents chances of snow SAT and SUN.

Of course, as stated, much can change in a week's time...

The one constant among these GFS runs is that...they're just not constant, at least going into next weekend. It seems the run-to-run variability right now is pretty high, meaning its hard to put a great deal of stock in any of these solutions given all the different timing and other variables at this point. But here's what the 10-day GFS is showing for the holiday weekend:

Thursday - Wet, possibly even stormy day as a front approaches a fairly moist, mild airmass across OK, with showers and thunderstorms developing in advance of the front Thursday arfternoon/evening roughly along the I-44 corridor from about Lawton to Tulsa. The front pushes through and brings in drier, colder air on Friday

Friday - Rain in the E/SE part of the state, becoming more generally dry and much colder, with temperatures generally *above* freezing. The key here, as it was earlier in the week, is in just how far the cold air mass migrates south. Right now, it looks like the below-freezing line stays north of Oklahoma. Again, though this has changed some over the last couple days, so you have to be careful reading it.

Saturday and Sunday - The weekend looks to be cold and dreary, but the map right now shows it to generally be at or above freezing. The cold airmass begins to migrate more northeasterly late Sunday. The model shows rain in SE OK early Saturday, then a broader mass of general precipitation from west-central Mexico all the way up to north-central OK Saturday evening, with rain in the SE 2/3 of the state on Sunday morning. This particular run shows only lighter precipitation near the Stillwater area around Bedlam along with at-or-slightly-above freezing temps, so the possibility of "winter precip" exists - but it's far from a sure thing at this point.

The most important thing to take away from these runs, given that they've changed quite a bit over the last few runs, is that there are still a great many variables in play and relying on the *details* of these forecasts so many days in advance is just not advisable. The runs, at this point, do consistently show rain for Thanskgiving day/afternoon. Beyond that, however, they just show a wave of cold air coming in starting Friday, along with some precipitation Saturday and Sunday. The volume and type of precipitation is largely a function of just how far south that cold airmass migrates along with it.

Okay I have been out of town and just got back.

Looking at models this morning.

GFS and NAM are close in-line: Heavy rain/storms Thursday afternoon into the night in pretty much the entire state (sweeping NW to SE). As the low ejects out of the rockies, a shot of colder air will be brought with it. However, it looks like the atmosphere will be too moisture-rich to get temps to fall below freezing for most of OK. Extreme NW OK and the pandhandle looks like the best bet for frozen precip. So with the main low coming out of the west, another round of heavy precip. looks likely. So think rain and 40F for C OK, essentially miserable.

Black Friday (weekend) shoppers will likely be questioned thoroughly if the deal is worth it. It will be a good time to eat leftover food and watch football inside though. Maybe get festive early and put a holiday tree up.

I will keep this updated as the week progresses.

2015 still a contender for wettest year ever for Oklahoma City | Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com (http://www.koco.com/weather/2015-still-a-contender-for-wettest-year-ever-for-oklahoma-city/36638410)

Well if this happens over the next 5 days, it will certainly be close.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1448417959

WSWatch issued:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.winter.gif

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wash ita; Woods; Woodward

Message summary: ...heavy rainfall...freezing rain...and sleet expected thursday through saturday...

A strong storm system and cold front will begin to impact the region beginning thanksgiving day. Rainfall chances will increase by midday thursday across northern and western oklahoma...and then spread over the rest of the region by thursday evening. By late thursday night and early friday morning...heavy rainfall will be possible along and south of the i44 corridor. Some locations across central and southeast oklahoma could receive over 3 inches of rainfall by sunrise friday morning. At least moderate rainfall will continue south of i40 friday through saturday. Localized flash flooding and river flooding will be possible this weekend. In addition to heavy rainfall...freezing rain and sleet will develop across portions of northwestern oklahoma as early as thursday night. Freezing rain chances will then increase late friday through early saturday across portions of northern...central and western oklahoma...and western north texas. It unclear at this time how much ice accumulation will occur. However...some locations across northwestern and western oklahoma could receive over one quarter inch of ice total. Higher ice amounts may accumulate on trees...powerlines...and other elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. If you are traveling anywhere across oklahoma or texas this weekend...be sure to monitor the latest forecasts...watches and warnings at National Weather Service Forecast Office - Norman, Oklahoma (http://www.weather.gov/norman).

I'm just interested in early SAT morning. Gotta be to work around 4:15am. Hoping the metro highways will be decent.

Models trending towards colder temps currently. NAM paints an ugly picture in SW OK with decent ice accumulations. C OK is right on the nose of the cold air, could be a scenario of NW sides being below 32F and SE sides being closer to 40F.

One thing about this storm that is usually different than most of this type... The QPF is off the charts for this time of year. We are talking several inches of liquid falling, there will likely be flash flooding in much of the eastern half of OK.

12Z GFS loading in now, looks bad for W OK. Heavy ice accumulation.


One thing that could save most of the state from ice accumulation is the fact that rain will be falling so heavily from the warm upper layers of the atmosphere, it will actually help to warm the lower layers near the surface.

Ice Storm warning for virtually all of the TX panhandle. I think we will likely see the western and northwest part of OK upgraded to this category either late tonight or in the morning.

Ice Storm warning for virtually all of the TX panhandle. I think we will likely see the western and northwest part of OK upgraded to this category either late tonight or in the morning.

Any chance OKC/Moore gets included in the Ice Storm Warning?

Doubtful. Unless temperatures drop much quicker, and much lower than currently forecasted.

Doubtful. Unless temperatures drop much quicker, and much lower than currently forecasted.

Well that stinks.

^ And I'd say its super fantastic!!:cool:

Should be cleared out for Bedlam, right?

Please no ice storm in OKC this weekend. Ugh.

Should be cleared out for Bedlam, right?

They are not currently predicting any ice for Bedlam. It is supposed to be just above freezing for the entire game with possible light rain.

Well that stinks.

Yes because those of us that would have to drive in it would love it... by all means, Bobby, post in something other than apocalypse weather 101...geesh...

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for the OKC Metro and Surrounding areas, Looking at up to 1/4" of Ice maybe more!!

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for the OKC Metro and Surrounding areas, Looking at up to 1/4" of Ice maybe more!!

You sound more excited than the puppy who leaves the puddle at the front door when the guests arrive.

soil temps in the metro are 60° (2") to 58° (24"), so i wouldn't guess there would be too much of a problem on the roads if it does come down as ice or freezing rain? bridges and overpasses for sure (and power lines).

If we do get any ice when is it due?

If we do get any ice when is it due?

Will be Friday into Saturday..

Yes because those of us that would have to drive in it would love it... by all means, Bobby, post in something other than apocalypse weather 101...geesh...

I sometimes wonder if he's serious. During severe weather season he gets beyond giddy when a high end event is forecasted.

I sometimes wonder if he's serious. During severe weather season he gets beyond giddy when a high end event is forecasted.

Yes I am serious, Active weather in spring and winter is very exciting and fun to look forward to.

Yes I am serious, Active weather in spring and winter is very exciting and fun to look forward to.

Fun to look at but not to drive in.

Fun to look at but not to drive in.
Especially at night. At night, I've driven through what was a white out for most of the trip from Oklahoma City to Stillwater before. I made it okay, but told myself I would never do that again and haven't.

Fun to look at but not to drive in.

I think that's the point. I remember when I was a kid, I thought these kind of weather events were AWESOME. It's my guess Bobby isn't old enough to drive yet...

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for the OKC Metro and Surrounding areas, Looking at up to 1/4" of Ice maybe more!!

Duh phuc? Ice storms are zero fun.

So what's the latest update?

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for the OKC Metro and Surrounding areas, Looking at up to 1/4" of Ice maybe more!!

When can we expect to ice accumulations?

So what's the latest update?

This is all I found:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Areas Affected:
Cleveland - Comanche - Grady - Logan - McClain - Noble - Oklahoma - Tillman
Effective: Thu 4:09 pm Updated: Thu 8:35 pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Sat 12:00 pm Severity: Minor Certainty: Likely

Details:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON CST
SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON
CST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING: FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
* MAIN IMPACT: SOME ICE ACCUMULATION... MAINLY ON COLD EXPOSED
SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES... TREES... POWER LINES AND CAR DOORS.
* OTHER IMPACTS: BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL
COLDER. ALSO... ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER LINES COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES AND FALLING TREE LIMBS. SOME BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLIPPERY.

Information:

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

Everything I keep hearing indicates that any major icing will be west of OKC proper. The temps in OKC will only allow a little brief icing at most.

Yup. So far everything is holding true to what we saw a few days ago on the models.

Freezing line pushing through NW OK now, and should be thoroughly over NW and WC OK for most of the night Thursday and Friday.

Freezing line will try and make a run @ OKC proper Friday evening, but even if it does, it will be a tree/powerline and maybe overpass threat for a relatively short period (over by saturday morning).

Roads could be impacted out in the further western parts of OK starting around Clinton, where they will be below freezing for a longer period of time and further away from 32F.

Latest NAM brings a heavy band of freezing rain/sleet into OKC Friday night.