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[*=left]Red Flag Warning
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[*=left]Wind Chill Warning
[*=left]Freezing Rain Advisory

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Looks like this week is going to be pretty wet. Some estimations of 2-5 inches over much of state.

Looks like this week is going to be pretty wet. Some estimations of 2-5 inches over much of state.
Considering how vulnerable the OKC metro area is to the heat island effect, such amounts are quite doable.

The flash Flood watch for up here in Tulsa states 3" to 5" with 10" possible locally versus up 2" to 3" and up to 5" for OKC. That's a crazy difference!

The flash Flood watch for up here in Tulsa states 3" to 5" with 10" possible locally versus up 2" to 3" and up to 5" for OKC. That's a crazy difference!
http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=11043&stc=1

Flash Flood Watch
Updated: Mon Jul-06-15 03:36am CDT
Effective: Mon Jul-06-15 03:36am CDT
Expires: Wed Jul-08-15 07:00pm CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Possible

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Beckham; Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Major; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Washi ta; Woods; Woodward

Instructions: Monitor weather forecasts and information. Make plans to get to higher ground if flooding happens.

Message summary: ...heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding can be expected late this afternoon through wednesday evening...
.a slow moving front will move into the area later today then stall tonight through wednesday. This front combined with a mid level disturbance will enhance shower and thunderstorm development in a very moist and unstable environment. Rounds of heavy rain will result which may result in flash flooding.
...flash flood watch in effect from 3 pm cdt this afternoon through wednesday evening...
The national weather service in norman has issued a
* flash flood watch for portions of oklahoma and northern texas...including the following areas...in oklahoma...
Alfalfa...beckham...blaine...caddo...canadian...ca rter...
Cleveland...comanche...cotton...custer...dewey...e llis...
Garfield...garvin...grady...grant...greer...harmon ...hughes...
Jackson...jefferson...kay...kingfisher...kiowa...l incoln...
Logan...major...mcclain...murray...noble...oklahom a...payne...
Pontotoc...pottawatomie...roger mills...seminole...stephens...
Tillman...wa**** a...woods and woodward. In northern texas...
Archer...baylor...clay...foard...hardeman...knox.. .wichita and wilbarger.
* from 3 pm cdt this afternoon through wednesday evening
* rounds of heavy rain will begin late this afternoon and tonight across northwestern oklahoma...then slowly shift south and east on tuesday. The heaviest rainfall will occur tuesday afternoon through wednesday across central and southwestern oklahoma as well as western north texas. The heavy rain is expected to end by wednesday evening.
* generally 2 to 5 inches of rainfall can be expected. A few locations may receive more than 5 inches of rainfall. Rainfall rates may exceed 2 inches per hour at times.

I am a little shocked at the dewpoints I am seeing in the OKC area. A 75 F dewpoint is higher than you see in parts of Florida sometimes! That spring deluge + slight Pacific moisture feed must be adding a TON of moisture to the air over central Oklahoma.

Yup, and this isn't just a shallow moisture layer. We have had been in the 70F dews for many days now and the layers are thoroughly mixed. This low that will ride out across OK will take a direct path along I-44 resulting in tropical-like rains.

NAM and GFS are pretty much aligned with a broad swath of about 4-6" along I-44 corridor and most of the state receiving at least 1-2" (save extreme SE and PH).

so when is this show starting?

This summer has definitely felt more like a Southeastern U.S. summer than an Oklahoma summer. It's complete with bugs/mosquitos on levels typical of the Southeast.

Thunderstorms have gone severe to the north of the OKC metro area.

Details:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN PAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 900 PM CDT
* AT 820 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF GARBER TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HENNESSEY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...AWOS REPORTED A 61 MPH WIND GUST AT VANCE AIRFORCE BASE.
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ENID...PERRY...HENNESSEY...WAUKOMIS...GARBER...COV INGTON...
BILLINGS...DRUMMOND...RED ROCK...MARSHALL...KREMLIN...
BRECKENRIDGE...MULHALL...ORLANDO...FAIRMONT...DOUG LAS...LAKE CARL
BLACKWELL...LAKE MCMURTRY...BISON AND SOONER LAKE.
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite?centerlat=36.10796738&centerlon=-97.07638550&radius=50&type=N0R&frame=1&num=10&delay=15&showstorms=10&lightning=1&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&width=640&height=480&newmaps=1

Were the flash floods OverHyped by K-4 (again)? I heard the gust front, we had a little rain and a tremendous clap of thunder. The rest of the ALERT . . . ? (Please be advised: It is raining in Oklahoma in July. This is an anomaly. Be prepared. Don't panic.)

http://i.imgur.com/ChSa9xa.jpg

I mean that looks like a massive wall of water that's just reforming over and over, over central OK. I think we're a long way from being in the clear.

Things better get rolling if were going to reach that 3-5 inch mark.

RadicalModerate...you might leave Morgan and K-4 behind and try out Damon Lane on KOCO5 :)

So far it has been flash sprinkling

Pretty good drenching far NW OKC. Yard back to rice paddy status!

we have received close to 3 inches in Surrey Hills.

Models missed by about 60 miles east for the heaviest banding, but they are getting slammed. Already 8"+ amounts coming in.

Wow..... Another 5"+ of rain at my cabin means my pond has seen about a 38' water surface elevation change since August of last year.... We went from having a rain barrier over us to being a rain magnet.

Flood Advisory

Updated: Thu Jul-09-15 12:14pm CDT
Effective: Thu Jul-09-15 12:14pm CDT
Expires: Sun Jul-12-15 08:30am CDT

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Payne

Instructions: Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep vehicles off the road. When encountering flooded roads make the smart choice...turn around...dont drown. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on small creeks and streams...and ponding of water in urban areas... Highways...streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low lying spots.

Message summary: The national weather service in norman has issued a
* urban and small stream flood advisory for...
Southeastern logan county in central oklahoma...
Northern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
Payne county in central oklahoma...
Northern lincoln county in central oklahoma...
* until 315 pm cdt
* at 1210 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated heavy rain that will cause urban and small stream flooding in the advisory area. Nearly an inch of rain has fallen in the past hour.
* some locations that will experience minor flooding include edmond...stillwater...guthrie...the village...cushing...perkins...
Langston...yale...wellston...carney...luther...gle ncoe...tryon...
Ripley...agra...coyle...arcadia...kendrick...merid ian and avery.

BREAKING NEWS - IT"S HOT!:cool:

AH woops. Keep posting in wrong thread.

But yes. Models right now, show no real decent chances of precip. for the rest of the month.

Grass burning time is here.

Bah, here's to mowing at 8PM at night again.

Models becoming pretty bullish on this front sagging into the state today and tomorrow for some good rain chances.

Any storms and showers that do form, will likely be briefly severe. Could have a complex of storms tomorrow sweep across the state.


Highest chances look like north of I-40 and south of KS/OK border, but exact track of the rain can still bounce around north or south of this region.

I sure hope the rain holds off. We have had enough of that this year so far. Loving this hot dry weather! Its perfect!

I'll cancel out your vote on that. I'll take more rain.:)

I sure hope the rain holds off. We have had enough of that this year so far. Loving this hot dry weather! Its perfect!

This is crazy talk.

I sure hope the rain holds off. We have had enough of that this year so far. Loving this hot dry weather! Its perfect!

"Dry" being subject to debate, depending on how we're defining it. This humidity blows. Give me 103F and dry any day.

But yes. Models right now, show no real decent chances of precip. for the rest of the month.

Grass burning time is here.
Nailed it!

http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=11100&stc=1

:Smiley173

We should keep seeing these redeveloping showers and storms this morning along the boundary that is basically just north of I-40.

Then a larger complex of showers and storms will move across the state from W to E overnight tonight.

:Smiley173

We should keep seeing these redeveloping showers and storms this morning along the boundary that is basically just north of I-40.

Then a larger complex of showers and storms will move across the state from W to E overnight tonight.

It was impressive to see lightning/hear thunder all night, but not actually receive any rain at my house until just after 4:00 am - we live a few blocks from the Capitol.

:Smiley173

We should keep seeing these redeveloping showers and storms this morning along the boundary that is basically just north of I-40.

Then a larger complex of showers and storms will move across the state from W to E overnight tonight.
Just giving you a hard time, Anon. I kid 'cause I care.

I got woken up in the middle of the night by some pretty impressive thunder and lightning. It's been a while since I've heard a storm that loud. Loved laying in bed listening to it roll through.

It was impressive to see lightning/hear thunder all night, but not actually receive any rain at my house until just after 4:00 am - we live a few blocks from the Capitol.

That lightning last night was wicked out in our area. Numerous close cloud to ground strikes. I was heading out to get something out of my car and one hit nearby....I saw the bright white flash and heard the loud snap...it scared the....well...you know what it nearly scared out of me. Then a bit later, one looked like it hit the green belt pool behind our house as there was a bright white flash and loud snap. My daughter was driving to our house and saw one hit and as she described it...she saw the bolt of lightning and then a bright yellow/orange flash/explosion on the ground. It was something out our way. And we had heavy rain for quite a bit.

That lightning last night was wicked out in our area. Numerous close cloud to ground strikes. I was heading out to get something out of my car and one hit nearby....I saw the bright white flash and heard the loud snap...it scared the....well...you know what it nearly scared out of me. Then a bit later, one looked like it hit the green belt pool behind our house as there was a bright white flash and loud snap. My daughter was driving to our house and saw one hit and as she described it...she saw the bolt of lightning and then a bright yellow/orange flash/explosion on the ground. It was something out our way. And we had heavy rain for quite a bit.

There were numerous lightning strikes and subsequent fire responses and a few fires. Last night was interesting on the OKC Response Tracker: http://www.okc.gov/response/responsetracking.htm

OKC just added new details for fire responses, maybe just yesterday, and it came in handy. They now let you know if it's a House Fire, Lightning Strike, Storm Damage, Check Smoke Inside, Commercial Fire, Haz Mat, Vehicle Fire, Trash Fire, Grass Fire and maybe more (that's just what I've seen).

And now it turns hot...

NWS says 92, 87, 90, 92 for the next four days.

Mesonet goes with 92, 86, 90, 91...

News9 says 90, 86, 87, 90

KFOR says 90, 88, 92, 94

KOCO says 91, 86, 89, 92

And then there's Yahoo (Weather Underground): 93, 86, 82, 91. What model are they using to get to 82?! Earlier this morning it was actually 93, 82, 82, 91. No complaints if that happens though.

Really it is banking on cloud cover/showers that are forecast over the next several days. Basically if you are under cloud cover or get a rain shower you are going to be cooler.

It will be shear luck with the spottiness of the rain activity, but hopefully we can all get some nice cloud cover this weekend.

NWS says 92, 87, 90, 92 for the next four days.

Mesonet goes with 92, 86, 90, 91...

News9 says 90, 86, 87, 90

KFOR says 90, 88, 92, 94

KOCO says 91, 86, 89, 92

And then there's Yahoo (Weather Underground): 93, 86, 82, 91. What model are they using to get to 82?! Earlier this morning it was actually 93, 82, 82, 91. No complaints if that happens though.
The huge variations in future precipitation amounts are more interesting to wonder about, while likely being further off for accuracy.

KFOR's Mike Morgan is being generous with the future rainfall amounts expected for north central and northeast Oklahoma ending at 4:30PM Wednesday. Stillwater has 2.37", Tulsa has 2.07" while OKC only .09".

Outflow boundary surging south out of the complex of rain and storms coming into N and NE OK.

Technically, OKC is in a SLIGHT risk for severe weather as this boundary could act as a spawning point for additional storms on the tail end of this system later today.

http://i.imgur.com/97czphA.jpg

KFOR's Mike Morgan is being generous with the future rainfall amounts expected for north central and northeast Oklahoma ending at 4:30PM Wednesday. Stillwater has 2.37", Tulsa has 2.07" while OKC only .09".

To no great surprise, those rainfall predictions worked out to be a super bust. Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Stillwater at best got several one hundreds of an inch. But at least a few spots got good amounts of rain on the eastern side of the OKC metro area Wednesday evening. Up to two inches were reported from that area. In Stillwater, a sprinkle from a passing stray shower cloud was all that happened Wednesday, not even enough to trip the rain gauge. Below is a picture of a thunderstorm shot at Guthrie late Wednesday evening.

https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/11836920_936043896460852_7308901653970021755_n.jpg ?oh=6eb40a6c683cfbd6befb39e3748c4388&oe=5681C48C

Meanwhile, there is an EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH out:

Excessive Heat Watch
Updated: Thu Aug-06-15 02:35pm CDT
Effective: Thu Aug-06-15 02:35pm CDT
Expires: Fri Aug-07-15 08:00pm CDT

Severity: Moderate
Urgency: Future
Certainty: Possible

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Atoka; Bryan; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Hughes; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Stephens

Instructions: Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible...reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when possible and drink plenty of water. To reduce risk during outdoor work the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency...call 9 1 1. Take care of yourself and others to prevent heat related illness.

Message summary: ...heat advisory remains in effect until 8 pm cdt this evening...
...excessive heat watch remains in effect from friday afternoon through friday evening...
The national weather service in norman has issued an excessive heat watch...which is in effect from friday afternoon through friday evening. A heat advisory remains in effect from 1 pm this afternoon to 8 pm cdt this evening. The national weather service in norman has issued a heat advisory...which is in effect from 1 pm to 8 pm cdt thursday.
* heat indices: 108 to 113 degrees friday.
* impacts: heat exhaustion and heat stroke are more likely with high heat indices. Take precautions to prevent heat related illnesses.