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Current Conditions



Air TemperatureDewpointWindsRainfall Last 24 Hourshttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TAIR.grad.png (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/air_temperature/air_temperature)http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/dewpoint/dewpoint_humidity)http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.gustbarbs.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_speed_gusts_with_barbs/wind)http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/24_hr_rainfall_accumulation/rainfall)

Advisory TableNWS Norman Warning AreaNWS Tulsa Warning Area

[*=left]Tornado Warning
[*=left]Tornado Watch
[*=left]Severe T-Storm Warning
[*=left]Severe T-Storm Watch
[*=left]Blizzard Warning
[*=left]Blizzard Watch
[*=left]Winter Storm Warning
[*=left]Winter Storm Watch
[*=left]Ice Storm Warning
[*=left]Red Flag Warning
[*=left]Winter Weather Advisory
[*=left]Wind Chill Advisory
[*=left]Wind Chill Warning
[*=left]Freezing Rain Advisory

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Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma


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Severe Weather Outlooks & Products



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Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time. Lightning image is © Blitzortung.org. Mesonet maps are all © of the Oklahoma Mesonet / OU Board of Regents.

Storm Outlook...

All of this outlook is for May, so going to keep it here in this new thread.

Sunday 5/3 - Moderate instability over W OK. High CIN/Cap strenght that day however should limit all that much in the way of storm development. Best chance for anything to happen would be NW OK.

Monday 5/4 - High Instability over W OK, however it appears CIN will still be high. A bit lower over the Panhandles where precip is expected. Could see one or two storms make a run for W OK, but right now the risk still appears really limited.

Tuesday 5/5 - Instability appears to be pretty meager, but a line of storms does form in the Panhandle and marches east over night - impacting Oklahoma in the very early morning hours on Wednesday.

Wednesday 5/6 - High instability forecast for the PM, but a lot of this will depend on any on going storms from the morning line/complex. Should the atmosphere recovery fairly well, storms that form in the afternoon would be severe. Profile decent for supercells that day, but doesn't look very high end.

Thursday 5/7 - Overnight storms form a complex and shift off into Eastern OK and we should clear out pretty quickly. If that takes place, instability is expected to get very high with CAPE values near 3500 j/kg for much of Oklahoma. Forecast sounding around Norman would have a modest cap that should keep things in check until peak heating kicks in. Wind profile support rotating storms and all modes possible. Still a week out, but this could be a day to watch.

Friday 5/8 - Another severe day possible in Oklahoma, especially from Eastern into South Central. Boundary should move through the metro keep ups clear, but still can't rule things out this far away.

Tuesday 12th through Friday the 15th - Very heavy rain possible if models call this one. Severe risks seems mitigated early, but increased Thursday & Friday. I almost always expect the end of a model's forecast window to be highly erratic and change severe times.

Projected QPF for next seven days:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1430513594

Other color meanings link changed. Weather.gov Help - Hazards Map (http://www.weather.gov/help-map)

Has much changed in regards to severe threats? Or we mainly just looking at a long slow washout?

Has much changed in regards to severe threats? Or we mainly just looking at a long slow washout?

Things have been changing in the models the last couple of runs. Need to see where it takes us. Two biggest influences is the low/trough out west and when it decides to eventually move. The other is when we'll see moisture be allowed back in the Gulf so we can see rich moisture return.

There will likely be some severe weather this week in the state. The coverage and intensity are going to be up in the air due to a long of ongoing convection through the week.

Are the storms after Wednesday just looking like pop up afternoon summerlike storms?

Channel 9 this morning didn't seem to be too concerned about this weeks storms.

Wednesday bears some watching. Mind you none of the upcoming events really stand out as an upper end day, but if the rights things come together we could get some pretty active days.

Wednesday still appears to be mainly west of I-35 for the better chances of severe weather - including tornadoes. The biggest factor right now is that models are predicting pretty widespread rain/storms on Tuesday that will impact things for Wednesday.

Friday, Saturday and Sunday could be a string of some of the more active days we've seen this season so far. Lot of very high instability around and the main trough kicks out overhead and comes through neutral to slightly negative.

Near Term Severe Discussions - Blend of 12Z NAM, 06Z GFS, and 00Z ECMWF.

Today

MARGINAL RISK of severe storms for NW OK. Today relatively quiet day. By early afternoon could see some pop up showers/storms over Central into Western OK. Severe weather not expected. Additional storms will fire in the panhandles, some of which could be severe and move into NW OK through the late afternoon and evening hours.

Tuesday

MARGINAL RISK of severe storms for SW OK. Severe chances will be mitigated by convective debris from the Panhandle's monday storms. Only expecting moderate instability to build over western OK. Elsewhere in OK general showers/storms possible throughout the day.

Wednesday

SLIGHT RISK of severe storms for W OK, west of US 81. MARGINAL RISK of severe storms from US 81 to about 20-30 miles east of I-35. Very high instability expected to build in from the I-35 corridor back to the west. Some areas will see CAPE value approach 4000 j/kg. Dryline will be in play from NW OK back to the southwest into the PH. Dewpoints ahead of the dryline expected to be well into the mid 60s. Wind profiles appear to be favorable for rotating storms producing hail, high winds and tornadoes through much of the risk area. Cap will be almost non-existent to pose any issue with convective development. Challenges to Wednesday are potential for on going convection very early from Central into Eastern OK that could leave a more stabilized atmosphere in their wake as well as lack of any major focal point for storm initiation in the state - if dryline slows down or is further west than anticipated. Storms should form up by peak heating and move to the east. Could see the formation of a complex into the overnight that will move to the south into North Texas. I will note that Euro is a bit more conservative when it comes to instability but does still produce storms by peak heating at least over SW OK from Clinton to Altus and over to Lawton.

Thursday

Severe threat on Thursday seems possible, but it all depends on any on going or early convection. NAM tends to build high to very high instability back in, whereas Euro does not due to widespread on going activity. GFS is somewhere in the middle, but overall a muddled mess as well. Right now I would probably say at least a marginal level in OK if on going/morning precip is limited and the atmosphere can recover. Best chance for storms will probably be back into the panhandles and far W OK as I have a feeling we'll be stabilized in Central OK.

Extended Severe Outlook - 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF

Friday

Severe weather threat increases on Friday with high to very high instability predicted by both GFS and Euro. CAPE values over W OK looking like at least 2000-3000 j/kg by early afternoon. Boundary/dry line in NW OK looks to be really sharp with dews in the 60s ahead and the 20s behind. Lifted index values could exceed -10 in this area. Euro is a bit more lax on the sharpness of the boundary, so we'll just have to see. Mid to upper 60s though over nearly all of OK ahead of it. Most likely area for storm development would be Western OK north of I-40. Movement of storms would be ENE. Hail/Wind primary threat, but a couple tornadoes not out of the question with this setup. GFS has storms form into a complex and move over OKC during the evening and out east overnight.

Saturday

15% RISK of severe storms projected by SPC already, which equates to a SLIGHT RISK. Limited on going precip to impact the area on Saturday as it appears now. Euro fires storms by early afternoon and pushes them east. GFS keeps development until peak heating in the afternoon. Very little cap in place by mid afternoon should allow for storms to quickly go up and become severe. Very high to near extreme instability and favorable upper air pattern suggests all modes possible if not likely.

Sunday

We return to the game of how fast will the boundary push through. Euro has it through OKC by early to mid afternoon focusing storm development just to the east. GFS has the boundary setup and sit on top of OKC by mid afternoon. Storm development looks probably by early afternoon just west of I-35. Very high instability ahead of the boundary will make severe weather probably across this area. Once the boundary moves by, threat ends. So we'll be doing the wait and see game with this one.

Monday 5/11

Boundary starts to stall out and lose focus on Monday over SE OK. Could see a risk for some severe weather from near Wichita Falls up to Pauls Valley over to Fort Smith. Coverage should be rather limited as it appears now.

Tuesday 5/12

Moderate instability over the state south of I-40, chance of storms. Might get one or two severe ones.

Wednesday through Friday - Quiet

Sunday 5/17

Could see the atmosphere start to recharge over Central into Western OK. Storms possible.

Monday 5/18

End of the GFS forecast window, so this can always be pretty extreme, but high instability over Central and Western OK again.

Wowza -- wouldn't this be nice. :)

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

Sure hope it happens.... My pond at Ardmore is still about 6' low and could use 6" of rain.

Of course, even better would be for that to happen and shifted 50 miles to the west.

Of course, even better would be for that to happen and shifted 50 miles to the west.

Yup, I wouldn't take that map's rain locations to the bank. Either way, 3-6 inches across most of OK is basically gold raining down from the skies.

15% areas have been highlighted for Friday and Saturday with Saturday being mentioned as possibility being upgraded as the event approaches.

Severe weather updates...

Today
SLIGHT RISK for extreme SW OK. MARGINAL RISK much of the Western half of OK. On going storms as expected over SW OK this morning, will continue to move East and North. We'll likely see some into Central OK later today. All modes possible in the SLIGHT risk area, but could get a couple grumpy storms in the marginal risk.

Wednesday
SLIGHT RISK in the area described earlier generally west of US 81, MARGINAL RISK from US 81 east to 20 miles east of I-35. Could start off with a few isolated storms early over South Central OK and also left over clouds from the wake of overnight storms. NAM has dryline push to the OK/TX border by mid to late afternoon before its evening retreat to the west. Euro agrees with this positioning as does GFS, mostly...GFS is a bit more undefined and not showing a sharp dryline. Instability wise everyone is showing high to very high instability over the entire risk area for tomorrow. The differences come in play as far as storm initiation. NAM wants to hold until peak heating, GFS wants to go by mid afternoon, and Euro wants to have a mix of stuff firing throughout the day. Many of these differences are due to impacts of early, on going precip and cloud cover from that activity. NAM clears out the fastest, Euro keeps us cloud covered in Central OK (and most of Western) through the entire day. So overall tomorrow is not an easy forecast. If we get more sun and align with NAM, we'll see a higher threat of severe weather with all modes possible. I would keep an eye on West Central OK tomorrow for the main tornado threat area. However, if we get stuck in clouds and a worked over atmosphere, then the chances will get reduced substantially - as seen on most risk days this year.

Thursday
SLIGHT RISK in extreme SW OK, MARGINAL RISK for all but eastern OK. Thursday appears to be two main areas of focus. One is going to be a possible early on going complex moving through Central and Southern OK early in the day. The other will be new storms firing by late afternoon in SW OK. GFS and NAM have high instability over much of the area in Western OK, GFS keeps up unstable in C OK while NAM has us pretty worked over from earlier convection. Euro isn't really aligned with either of the US models. The whole forecast for Thursday is dependent on how Wednesday turns out.

Friday
15% RISK from I-35 back to the west. Very high to extreme instability over much of the state on Friday according to NAM. GFS is much more conservative with high to very high values over North Central and much of Western OK. The big complicating factor here is the existence of a boundary on NAM coming through NW OK on Friday, whereas GFS and Euro do not have that well of a defined boundary coming in. There will likely be severe weather in OK on Friday, but right now the mess between the models is going to make it difficult to pinpoint exact areas until we see them come together. So for now it is easy to just do the broad brush stroke over the western half of the state and call it good for right now. All modes possible.

Saturday
15% RISK for all but Eastern OK. This is going to be our biggest day it seems right now. Negatively tilted trough and upper low will start to move into the area. If the trough moved east just a bit more than current projected, the risk potential on Saturday would sky rocket. As it stands now, storms will fire by Mid Afternoon in far W OK/TX PH and move east to near I-35 by early evening. Storms will be moving into an area of backing surface winds and high instability. I'll write up more on Saturday tomorrow once the NAM has this data covered in the forecast window. Right now I would not be shocked to see an upgrade to a MDT risk by the time we get into Day 2 or 3.

Sunday
This is the day the main upper storm moves over. Most of the activity though should be confined to Eastern OK, but we could see a very worked over atmosphere for storms to play in. Great potential for severe weather will probably be into SE OK and East Texas.

Already an inch over most of the OKC metro with the heaviest batch about to come knocking now, will probably get another inch from this. Then one more big batch in the early morning hours before it all shifts east.

Severe storm moving up through Kiowa County. Next line of storms coming in now to the Metro may have some small hail with it.

Working on website updates tonight and then will post an updated outlook a bit later.

The national weather service in norman has issued a


* flash flood warning for...
Caddo county in southwestern oklahoma...
Comanche county in southwestern oklahoma...
Canadian county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern kiowa county in southwestern oklahoma...
Northwestern grady county in central oklahoma...


* until 245 am cdt

* at 1140 pm cdt...doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain. 1 to 4 inches of rain have fallen over the past 24
hours.

The national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southern kingfisher county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Logan county in central oklahoma...
Oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
Southwestern payne county in central oklahoma...
Eastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma...
Cleveland county in central oklahoma...


* until 115 am cdt


* at 1227 am cdt...severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles west of kingfisher to 6 miles northeast of
union city to near tabler...moving east at 50 mph.


Hazard...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.


Source...radar indicated.

Measured 66 Mph wind near El Reno.

Pockets of intense wind in this line coming through. A lot of stuff is going to be moving around. Based on the current radar most intense areas are near Blanchard, Mustang, NW of Piedmont.

Area of greatest concern right now moving ENE.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-05/06-001.PNG

At 12:37 AM, 2 N Norman [Cleveland Co, OK] PUBLIC reports TSTM WND GST of E60 MPH

The I-44 corridor is getting absolutely drenched.Probably going to see upwards of 3 inches on the night

This image will be for this main line since midnight. Norman is getting poured on pretty good in this.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/today.rainrfc.png

Slight Risk for today has been extended all the way to I-35 and is now entirely hatched for Oklahoma. Main threat will be very large hail over 2 inches. Damaging wind and tornadoes will also be possible.

Chat room day for Wednesday, so will hold off any big model updates until the morning so I can get the new Euro run involved.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WARM-CONVEYOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z TODAY
FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX AND EASTERN OK NWD INTO THE MID MO
VALLEY. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN POLEWARD MOISTURE RETURN/THETA-E ADVECTION EAST
OF THE DRY LINE...WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.25 INCHES. THIS
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WEST OF THE EARLY DAY CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KS SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN/CENTRAL TX...WHILE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG NWD THROUGH CENTRAL KS AND SRN/ERN NEB.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FULL EXTENT
OF THE DRY LINE WITH THIS SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO
THIS BOUNDARY WHICH SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MUCH OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH-RELATED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...WHILE NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES OR
WEAK RISES...WITH SOME MIDLEVEL WARMING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS PORTION OF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THIS FACTOR AND
GUIDANCE FROM THE HIGH-RES MODELS AND CAMS SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE
NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL TEND TO BE ISOLATED...WHICH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND NO
INCLUSION OF AN ENHANCED RISK AREA AS THIS TIME. SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE MOST COMMON RISKS...WITH A PLUME OF
STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING ACROSS TX/OK/KS PORTIONS OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS EVENING SUGGESTING VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED SOME BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS WRN-NORTH TX THROUGH WRN OK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING AS THE DRY LINE RETREATS WITH A TORNADO IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

Slight Risk Friday extended to cover most of Oklahoma. Saturday is now has a large 30 percent risk area ( The highest the 4-8 product day allows them to do this far out).

If this cloud deck burns off, lookout this afternoon!

From SPC on there latest outlook from this morning.

SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40
KT...AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BY THIS EVENING WILL SUPPORT
A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE
DAMAGING WIND RISK SHOULD BE SMALLER GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED/DISCRETE CELLS. THE PARAMETER SPACE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES FROM WRN OK INTO CENTRAL
KS THIS EVENING...BUT WILL NOT RAISE TORNADO PROBABILITIES BECAUSE
CONFIDENCE IN SUPERCELL INITIATION ACROSS THIS SAME CORRIDOR REMAINS
A BIT TOO LOW.

I will be out with a couple of co-workers in western OK this afternoon. Will post any pics that are worthwhile.

Grr...supposed to have my band and orchestra picnic on Friday evening :/

So far for this morning not a lot really going on. A few isolated showers with one denser patch developing over Southern Caddo. No high level cirrus/cloud debris today to worry about like we normally do, so that is one positive sign towards storm development. The cloud cover over Western OK is eroding some, but very slowly so far. So outside of that let's look at the rest of the setup...

- Moisture: Mid to upper 60s as far as dewpoints right now, with a pretty solid fetch of moisture from the south. So we are good there.
- Instability: SPC Mesoanalysis has most of the area marginally to moderately unstable area with short term models getting us very unstable by afternoon.
- Boundaries: Dryline will sharpen some and get barely into West Central and Northwest OK late this afternoon before retreating. Any left over boundaries from last night's storms will also help provide trigger areas.

Right now my feeling is that this will not be a very widespread event. Storm coverage is really limited in the current model runs, but signs are there that we'll get a few to go. The limit of extensive coverage will allow them to remain isolated and not fight for energy from other storms. So the focus now will be watching on how the cloud deck burns off. I would pay attention to both the dryline in NW OK but also and area that might get sparked off over SW OK/NW TX around late afternoon. If I were going out, I would take the easy launch point of Clinton and see how things evolve. Even though it is only a slight risk, I had some of my best chase days with slight risks - so stay aware!

Chat room is up and going for today: Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

We got some serious rain in Norman. Rained hard all night and kept me up with the thunder. My puppy however didn't even notice...

We got some serious rain in Norman. Rained hard all night and kept me up with the thunder. My puppy however didn't even notice...

Norman won the 24 hour rain total...3.94", with 2.76" since midnight alone. Definitely a lot of water.

Beginning to see slivers of sun through the clouds in the north metro.

Rick Smith @ounwcm (https://twitter.com/ounwcm)

Getting more concerned about potential for dangerous storms this afternoon/evening. Lots of ingredients will be in place. Not a guarantee!

Rick Smith @ounwcm (https://twitter.com/ounwcm)

Pay very close attention to the #okwx (https://twitter.com/hashtag/okwx?src=hash) and #texomawx (https://twitter.com/hashtag/texomawx?src=hash). Watch for updated outlooks and don't leave work without checking the weather.

Outlook upgraded to Enhanced.

...northwest ok...
The area with the lowest confidence in robust convective initiation
along the dryline is over northwest ok. However...virtually all
models agree on a strong cape/shear environment by late afternoon
with little cap. Any storm that forms in this region would have a
high conditional risk of significant severe weather. However...
Will maintain only 5 percent tornado and 15 percent hail
probabilities at this time.

...southwest ok into tx...
Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over parts
of western north tx...where dewpoints are in the mid 60s. This area
may be far enough southwest to recover from the subsidence
associated with the shortwave over ks...with another area of higher
confidence in convective initiation. Supercells capable of very
large hail and isolated tornadoes are expected to occur in this
region during the mid afternoon through evening hours.

Couple early storms trying to go up. Small hail main risk right now.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-05/06-002.PNG

Storm has gone severe already.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 130 PM CDT


* AT 1246 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
BOONE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.


HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.


SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

Nice clearing taking place, but these little storms popping up this early could keep revamping the cloud deck we have been burning off all day.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEV2n4VWEAAHa6G.png

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061803Z - 062000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY BETWEEN 18 AND
19Z. SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS
INITIALLY...BUT TURNING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST A TORNADO
THREAT FOR ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE WITH AN EASTERN EDGE STRETCHING FROM EAST
OF LBB TO NEAR SHAMROCK. ALTHOUGH THE MCD AREA IS UNDER NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
WAVE...LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA.
MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8 C/KM. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40
KT...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE THE FAVORED MODE FOR PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS...BUT LONGEVITY OF THE SUPERCELLS COULD BE NEGATIVELY
IMPACTED BY STORM INTERACTIONS AS NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UNDER LITTLE INHIBITION AND POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY LIFT FROM A
WEAK POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IN UPPER-LEVELS. REGARDLESS OF STORM MODE...SEVERE
HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODEST...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOW
CURVATURE...WITH EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2 FOR
STORMS THAT DEVIATE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEV3_sCWIAA6A4-.png

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL KS...S CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 061809Z - 062045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN INTO CNTRL KS WITH
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU INCREASING IN DEPTH ACROSS
MUCH OF CNTRL KS INTO SWRN NEB DUE TO HEATING AND A RAPID NWD
ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S
F. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN
KS...WITH ENHANCED VORTICITY ON THE N SIDE OF THE MIDLEVEL JET.

NEARBY VWPS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH
HEIGHT...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE LACK OF A CAPPING INVERSION
COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGH-RH BOUNDARY LAYER AND AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL SRH SUGGEST TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY
BUT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...SUGGESTING HP SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A
LINEAR MODE AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL...MAINLY OVER NRN KS
INTO SRN NEB.

Nice clearing taking place, but these little storms popping up this early could keep revamping the cloud deck we have been burning off all day.

The short term models seemed to anticipate this, and the feeling I'm getting from SPC/NWS is that it won't matter.

No CIN out there and instability already very high.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s15/sbcp/sbcp.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0133_radar.gif

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (30%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (40%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

Most "impressive" watch for OK this season, I think.

Once these little cells shove off, and the big boys come out to play on the dryline, we could be in business.

Just a general question. With the probabilities so high (can't remember a tornado watch having 50% probabilities in some time), would this qualify as a PDS?

Just a general question. With the probabilities so high (can't remember a tornado watch having 50% probabilities in some time), would this qualify as a PDS?

Nope. Need 50% EF2-EF5 typically...even that can be borderline.

Where is the dryline positioned at right now? Oklahoma Texas border?

Plus, PDS is specifically notated on watches, you can't miss it.

It is more coincidental that probabilities are high with a PDS. PDS is issued at the discretion of forecasters, usually mass-life taking/threatening situations unfolding.

Where is the dryline positioned at right now? Oklahoma Texas border?

Pretty well out west...but the entire area ahead of the dryline is pretty well primed. It'll help with getting storms going, but not completely required today. It will not move east of the metro until probably Sunday.

Streaming and such in the chat now: Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEWFsAXVEAESxlK.png

Storm is rotating, hail size is increasing. Stay aware. Right now looks like it'll track up towards Grady/Canadian counties.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-05/06-004.png

I just observed a funnel on that storm. I'm east of it on I44

Storm merging is just about done. Cycling back up with increasing hail size. Inflow area appears to be NW of Fletcher. Moving NE.

TOR warned

http://climate.cod.edu/data/raob/KOUN/skewt/KOUN.skewt.20150506.19.gif

Tornadao watch for OKC metro