http://i.imgur.com/F0YE0yi.jpg

*sigh*

KFOR is also talking about another severe outbreak this next weekend.

Can't wait for May to be over.

http://i.imgur.com/F0YE0yi.jpg

*sigh*

*cries*

This pattern keeps up and I know the Mustang split on the severe weather is going too fail me.

KFOR is also talking about another severe outbreak this next weekend.

Can't wait for May to be over.So is CH-5… Ouch...

I expect the risk to eventually be upgraded by the time we get to that time period?
I live in the part of Norman that got hit by the weak tornado and received high end hail damage 2 days later…… all of us are ready for the end of spring and the start of summer.

KFOR is also talking about another severe outbreak this next weekend.

Can't wait for May to be over.

Remember that an outbreak is a hard thing to predict the day before, much less an entire week before..

Remember that an outbreak is a hard thing to predict the day before, much less an entire week before..Not at all hard to predict a week, or even a month or a year, before -- now if you want to predict it accurately, that's the color of a different horse...

Hypesters don't seem pre-occupied with being accurate, of course.

Well, Mike Morgan's prediction that Stillwater would miss out on the downpours and only get .18" was a total washout. From three widely spaced rain gauges in Stillwater reporting to wunderground, the amounts ranged from 1.05" to 1.10". Interestingly enough, several Mesonet reporting stations in eastern Oklahoma County got .19 and, so far, on station in Lincoln County got .21". So maybe Morgan needs to fine tune his precipitation fortune telling capabilities as to location. Or maybe quit looking ridiculous by trying to do it, or whoever does it for him. NWS computer models?

I guess you miss the part of his weathercast where, when it shows future rain amounts, he specifically says not to take the exact amount in any particular area as a specific forecast.

https://twitter.com/AaronTuttleOK
Aaron Tuttle @AaronTuttleOK • 60m 60 minutes ago
Don't let your guard down Mon, Supercells possible in OKC metro area 4-6pm. Tornado could occur. Watch boundary. -AT #ATsWeather #okwx

Tuttle is blowing up social media that is for sure. 3000 shares on his post about tomorrow's setup yielding EF4/5 tornadoes.

His app sales must be down so he needs to hype something.

I guess you miss the part of his weathercast where, when it shows future rain amounts, he specifically says not to take the exact amount in any particular area as a specific forecast.

I heard the same. He said to look at the coverage not amounts.

Oklahoma removed from the marginal risk for today. Perhaps Tuttle could educate NOAA on how today's setup supports those EF4s and EF5s he has everyone worked up about.

Tuttle has lost all credibility.

Why hype a day that doesn't have any real risk?

I guess you miss the part of his weathercast where, when it shows future rain amounts, he specifically says not to take the exact amount in any particular area as a specific forecast.

So why look like a fool for a weatherman putting it up when the rain amounts work out so far off base? Surely, Venture wonders the same thing.

KFOR is also talking about another severe outbreak this next weekend.

Can't wait for May to be over.

Meanwhile, since Stillwater usually gets bypassed so much by the weather, though Mike Morgan had a washout on that for Sat. night, I could easily take a couple more 1 inch downpours for the remainder of May.

Oklahoma removed from the marginal risk for today. Perhaps Tuttle could educate NOAA on how today's setup supports those EF4s and EF5s he has everyone worked up about.

Meanwhile the NWS chance of a thunderstorm in OKC for Tuesday night has been reduced to 80% from 90%.

I suspect your post is tongue in cheek, but you seem a little bit obsessed.

So lots of people are obsessed about the weather this time of year and some of them about things about it that don't seriously matter, as was so well proven by my comment that the NWS has reduced the chance of a thunderstorm in OKC Tuesday night to 80% from 90%.

https://twitter.com/AaronTuttleOK
Aaron Tuttle @AaronTuttleOK • 60m 60 minutes ago
Don't let your guard down Mon, Supercells possible in OKC metro area 4-6pm. Tornado could occur. Watch boundary. -AT #ATsWeather #okwx
He has lost his mind.

Apparently he had another spat with TLO recently.

And I saw some people on social media saying one of the TV mets called him out on a forecast or something. But I haven't been able to find anymore information. Sounds thoroughly entertaining.

Apparently he had another spat with TLO recently.

And I saw some people on social media saying one of the TV mets called him out on a forecast or something. But I haven't been able to find anymore information. Sounds thoroughly entertaining.

"Aaron Tuttle Doesn't Want People to be so Sensitive"

http://www.thelostogle.com/2015/05/14/aaron-tuttle-doesnt-want-people-to-be-so-sensitive/

I stopped following both Aaron Tuttle and The Lost Ogle, but now and then I check TLO for the Monday Morning Tweets... I missed that beauty of a post.

Apparently he had another spat with TLO recently.

And I saw some people on social media saying one of the TV mets called him out on a forecast or something. But I haven't been able to find anymore information. Sounds thoroughly entertaining.

I believe I saw where Emily Sutton posted something calling him out. Also NWS Norman has been in damage control trying to calm everyone down on their twitter. The guy is a jackass and self serving. I really don't see how people haven't noticed it. Granted he has a cult following where people will defend him to the end.

As far as the forecast today...HRRR has us dry with some isolated stuff SW and NE. Can't rule out a rogue storm, but no big wedges are going to be coming to get anyone today.

It just seems a little harsh to get bent about forecasted rainfall totals.

He has lost his mind.
I posted that last night in the for what it’s worth category and to see if anyone would agree with his opinion that sure seem to go way out on a limb.

But he had this to say this morning
https://www.facebook.com/ATsWeather?fref=nf


Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist (weatherman)
Apparently my post last night blew up the internet. I don't claim to get every forecast correct. But if I see something, I'll say something. Sticking your neck out and going it alone is not an easy decision to make. I'll look at data this morning here in a little bit and see if things have changed.

It is an easy decisions for him when he is constantly running a campaign sell his app and other self help things he has advertised. It sucks, but hype like this just draws in more followers. I've seen the same thing with a couple that chases out of Ohio that will post 6-day out forecasts of the Euro about big outbreaks or blizzards and out of nowhere, they got 20,000 likes/followers. I just can't bring myself to do things like that for the sake of increasing followers.

The giant circle-jerk on Facebook and Twitter from a lot of the other weather guys since the hype from yesterday just looks like a bunch of Junior High kids fighting. Not a lot of people are gonna look like adults by the time this whole mess is done.

I don't know why anyone would want to take one man's opinion at face value especially when he is trying to sell something. With the official NWS forecasts you know that you have several minds who have several years worth of experience and education working together to come up with a forecast they can mostly agree on.

Tuttle must have been drunk when he was looking at the data because no one out there saw the same thing.

FYI
Looking out my south window I can see growing columns of what I think are Cumulus Congestus about 40 to 50 miles south, south east of my Norman location…. This is in other wise mostly clear skies with warming temp’s.
?

FYI
Looking out my south window I can see growing columns of what I think are Cumulus Congestus about 40 to 50 miles south, south east of my Norman location…. This is in other wise mostly clear skies with warming temp’s.
?

Yes, are seeing a couple showers/storms near Ardmore.

Any severe weather days on the horizon?

And now it looks like childish posts are starting to be removed from Facebook, because you can just delete stuff from the internet and then pretend it never happened. Today featured some pretty embarrassing behavior from some in the weather community.

Yes, are seeing a couple showers/storms near Ardmore.

severe weather in Oklahoma today?


National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ051&warncounty=OKC095&firewxzone=OKZ051&local_place1=2%20Miles%20SE%20Mannsville%20OK&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning)
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSTON AND NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSTON AND NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

severe weather in Oklahoma today?


National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ051&warncounty=OKC095&firewxzone=OKZ051&local_place1=2%20Miles%20SE%20Mannsville%20OK&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Warning)
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSTON AND NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSTON AND NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

Pulse storm that did 1" hail...which is just at severe limits. Probably get another report on hail just at the limits near Ada shortly.

Isolated storms with the chance for some large hail was in the cards today...coverage though extremely limited. The originally severe storm is already going down.

Any severe weather days on the horizon?

I would say watch this Sunday/Monday. GFS has the trough with a negative-ish tilt to it coming through. Looks like plenty of moisture as well.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0690.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR S-CNTRL OK...N/CNTRL TX...

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181958Z - 182200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPARSE
COVERAGE AND LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT -- WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS -- APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM FAR
S-CNTRL OK SWD THROUGH WRN N TX AND INTO WRN CNTRL TX. THIS AREA IS
FAVORABLY SITUATED TO THE W OF MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS E TX /THE
RESULT OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS/ AND TO THE S OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE. LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT AT LEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OVER 2000 J PER KG/ DESPITE RELATIVELY
POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK AND THE REGION IS
ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE BETTER BULK SHEAR BUT THERE IS STILL LIKELY
ENOUGH KINEMATIC SUPPORT FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULIT-CELLS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL. OVERALL...A MOSTLY PULSE STORM-MODE
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL AND
WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. GIVEN ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE AND MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

He has lost his mind.

'Roid rage!!!!! AT smash tornado!!!

In case this bit of info about the significance of the May 6 rainfall amount in OKC wasn't already brought up, the official daily rainfall then for Oklahoma City (Will Roger’s World Airport) was 7.10″(NWS confirmed), which happens to rank it as the #3 greatest 24-hour rainfall on record.

Historic Rainfall Event in the Oklahoma City Metro on 5/6/15 - iWeatherNet.com (http://www.iweathernet.com/national/historic-rainfall-oklahoma-city-5-6-15)

'Roid rage!!!!! AT smash tornado!!!
His present Twitter war with other meteorologists has passed the point of being entertaining to now being more pathetic and pathological.

His present Twitter war with other meteorologists has passed the point of being entertaining to now being more pathetic and pathological.

Wow, with a Kentucky weatherman too!!

Does anybody know how many tornadoes the state has had so far this month? Average is 21, record is 91. I am very interested to see how 2015 stacks up.

Does anybody know how many tornadoes the state has had so far this month? Average is 21, record is 91. I am very interested to see how 2015 stacks up.

According to the NWS, 32 so far.

2015 Oklahoma Tornadoes (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-2015)

His present Twitter war with other meteorologists has passed the point of being entertaining to now being more pathetic and pathological.

The sad thing is those other mets don't get Tuttle is playing the "any publicity is better than no publicity" game with them. He knows he's perceived as a moron. He doesn't care. The only thing that will permanently sting the guy is when he gets permanently ignored.

It just seems a little harsh to get bent about forecasted rainfall totals.

ha, ha, Nevertheless, for more of his weather drama, subject to change, here is Mike Morgan going from Stillwater getting the least to the most in the future rain amount of 4.16" by Saturday at 10:30. Where from the NWS, or where ever, does he gets these amounts?

http://stillwaterweather.com/photos/satraintotals.jpg

Apparently he had another spat with TLO recently.

And I saw some people on social media saying one of the TV mets called him out on a forecast or something. But I haven't been able to find anymore information. Sounds thoroughly entertaining.

Emily Sutton called him out but has since retracted her post.

Bunty give it a rest man, I'm starting to think maybe Morgan slept with your relative or something

Bunty give it a rest man, I'm starting to think maybe Morgan slept with your relative or something

LOL, yep.

Bunty give it a rest man, I'm starting to think maybe Morgan slept with your relative or something

Yes, I should, instead, get bent over Tuttle's sensationally misforecasting for severe F4-F5 weather in OKC tonight. After all, it's much more interesting trying to follow than Morgan flirting with looking ridiculous forecasting local rainfall totals.

ha, ha, Nevertheless, for more of his weather drama, subject to change, here is Mike Morgan going from Stillwater getting the least to the most in the future rain amount of 4.16" by Saturday at 10:30. Where from the NWS, or where ever, does he gets these amounts?



I would like to introduce you to things called computer models. They are programs that do bunches and bunches of mathematical equations and spit out what they thing it will do. They are really handy in giving a good idea on what is going to happen over a general/broad area. They've been around for...well a few years now. Sigh.

Okay seriously. This is getting stupid if you are going to keep beating up Morgan for showing a run of their internal forecast model spitting out rainfall totals. I guess Morgan could just get rid of the individual city amounts and just use a broad brush approach of colors, but it is giving you an idea of what one... 1 ... forecast model is putting out. He isn't going through there and picking out amounts and putting them on a map all by himself - he is just showing what their forecast model is showing. Pretty basic stuff. Here are some more models showing rain through Friday morning at 7AM...guess what - they aren't putting out the same result.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/FLT/namFLT_prec_precacc_084.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/FLT/gfsFLT_prec_precacc_084.gif

Today...

SLIGHT RISK far SW OK. MARGINAL RISK for much of the rest of Central and Western OK.

Nothing major today, some wind and hail main threat. Could see one spin up in SW OK. Some early showers/storms possible around here by Noon to 2PM, but main show will be coming out of the panhandle around that time in W OK and through this evening. Front will blast through overnight between 2 and 4AM and will likely have additional storms along in come through. We may or may not have a break between storms, so we'll have to keep an eye on things.

Shouldn't be too crazy of a day but a few severe reports seem like a given today.

I would like to introduce you to things called computer models. They are programs that do bunches and bunches of mathematical equations and spit out what they thing it will do. They are really handy in giving a good idea on what is going to happen over a general/broad area. They've been around for...well a few years now. Sigh.Anyone else know just how long? I recently bought an excellent book (via B&N and my Nook) called "Turing's Cathedral" that tells a lot of the early history of computing, in the days of Von Neumann et al at Princeton, and specifically how big computers came to be. Turns out that one of the driving forces behind their campaign for more powerful hardware was to create such models and forecast weather as much as 25 hours in advance!

What got them the funding, though, was that the hardware was needed in order to develop the H-bomb.

So today's models owe their existence to a perceived need for the most powerful destructive force known to man. And the development of the models goes back some 60-odd years! Makes an old fogey like me, present for most of that span though only on the outer fringes of the real pioneering, wonder what the next half-century will bring...

I would like to introduce you to things called computer models. They are programs that do bunches and bunches of mathematical equations and spit out what they thing it will do. They are really handy in giving a good idea on what is going to happen over a general/broad area. They've been around for...well a few years now. Sigh.

Okay seriously. This is getting stupid if you are going to keep beating up Morgan for showing a run of their internal forecast model spitting out rainfall totals. I guess Morgan could just get rid of the individual city amounts and just use a broad brush approach of colors, but it is giving you an idea of what one... 1 ... forecast model is putting out. He isn't going through there and picking out amounts and putting them on a map all by himself - he is just showing what their forecast model is showing. Pretty basic stuff. Here are some more models showing rain through Friday morning at 7AM...guess what - they aren't putting out the same result.


Venture, I already know about computer models. And how they can work out funny, too. But seriously, Venture, I simply find it highly amusing how a long time TV weatherman can boldly put on projected rainfall amounts and how they end up being way off. For instance, . 18" in reality was over 1". I'm sorry you are not entertained by this. But you are right that Morgan should should give up trying to impress people with his projected local rainfall amounts and put up broad colored shades over areas such as this area to get 1 to 2 in., this area 2 to 4 in and so on.

Bunty give it a rest man, I'm starting to think maybe Morgan slept with your relative or something

No, Instead, Morgan needs to give his map of projected local rainfall totals a rest.

Heavy rainfall thunderstorm coming in from the W/SW into OKC area soon.

Venture, I already know about computer models. And how they can work out funny, too. But seriously, Venture, I simply find it highly amusing how a long time TV weatherman can boldly put on projected rainfall amounts and how they end up being way off. For instance, . 18" in reality was over 1". I'm sorry you are not entertained by this. But you are right that Morgan should should give up trying to impress people with his projected local rainfall amounts and put up broad colored shades over areas such as this area to get 1 to 2 in., this area 2 to 4 in and so on.

You are just overreacting to this. He is just showing the output for a model. Sure he could just do a spread forecast with a general consensus, but every TV station tends to have their forecast models that throw out numbers...and they happen to show values at that point in the forecast. Every mode does the same thing as well. If you are taking this model output to be "this is exactly what you are forecast to get" then you are overestimating the ability for models to handle things on a mesoscale/micro level.

Is he outright trying to impress people? I doubt it. Everyone does it. It just gives pin point values of a specific model's output. If the viewer is reading too much into it, that is their problem.

http://i.imgur.com/tx38wOZ.gif

David Payne @tornadopayne
2:22PM: Severe T-storm over Blanchard heading ENE towards Noble & Norman. Damaging winds & flooding rains. #okwx pic.twitter.com/xrG75nwtxu

A severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect until 300 pm cdt
for northwestern mcclain...southwestern oklahoma and northern
cleveland counties...

At 223 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm was located over western
norman...moving northeast at 30 mph.

Radar Hook developing SW of Purcell

Extremely heavy rain in Norman!

"Possible" developing tornado SW of Purcell per CH 9

Tornado warning now for storm SW of Purcell