Wall of water about a few hours away. Will get mist and showers increasing throughout day as it approaches.

Also embedded thunderstorms are likely. (non severe)

Anonymous, right now what does the CAP look like on Saturday? Do you think it will go early like last Saturday or hold out until peak instability?

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REDUCING RAIN CHANCES BRIEFLY FOR THURSDAY. THEN...AS
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...RAIN/STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEVERE STORMS AND MORE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY HOW MUCH SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON SEVERAL FACTORS THAT CANNOT YET
BE DETERMINED WITH CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY...IN PARTICULAR...HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A MAJOR SEVERE-WEATHER DAY...BUT IF THERE IS
MORNING CONVECTION...WHICH IS LIKELY...IT MIGHT LIMIT THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.

Depends on how fast it can clear out in the afternoon.

Sounds a lot like last week's setup. Lots of general instability and storm risk, but very much impacted by the very things the "macro" models necessarily can't predict very well - the relatively "micro"-level occurrence of things like morning convection (or as some call it "crapvection" LOL) that throw a wrench into the whole forecast.

Morning convection amid big storm forecasts is to spring like the dry slots amid Snowmaggeddon forecasts are to the winter.

Sounds a lot like last week's setup. Lots of general instability and storm risk, but very much impacted by the very things the "macro" models necessarily can't predict very well - the relatively "micro"-level occurrence of things like morning convection (or as some call it "crapvection" LOL) that throw a wrench into the whole forecast.

Morning convection amid big storm forecasts is to spring like the dry slots amid Snowmaggeddon forecasts are to the winter.

Seems to be the year of no cap. Other years were waiting to see if storms can bust a cap around 4-5 in the late afternoon.

Seems to be the year of no cap. Other years were waiting to see if storms can bust a cap around 4-5 in the late afternoon.

Guns firing !

According to the color advisory chart ... we are in a Blizzard Watch with Freezing Rain Advisory. Only in Oklahoma!

So models did pretty terrible with this low and the heavier rain band placement.

Looks like heaviest rain will be E and NE OK.

Enhanced risk of storms Saturday. It will be a wait and see kind of day.

Saturday at 7pm (keep in mind this is the projection of just one of many models):

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/12/SGP/nam4kmSGP_prec_radar_060.gif

Discussions...


FRIDAY

SLIGHT RISK for Friday west of a line going from Ponca City to Altus.

MARGINAL RISK for rest of the state except SE OK.

MAIN THREATS: Hail, wind.

TIMING: Late afternoon into the evening.

DISCUSSION: Looking at overall marginal setup over Oklahoma with a dryline that isn't very sharp out over the panhandles and the main storm system still a day out. Moisture should be decent at the surface, not that moisture will really be a serious concern for awhile, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s over much of the area. Instability won't really be that great as we'll probably some left over clouds from convection on Thursday. 12Z 4km NAM doesn't push these clouds out until around Noon on Friday.

If we can get enough clearing early, we could see up to two waves of storms form. One would be late afternoon around Highway 283 in West Central OK. The other would be later in the evening over Northwest OK. Overall risk will be limited to hail and wind.

SATURDAY

ENHANCED RISK for Saturday west of a line from Central Osage County to Chandler to Ardmore - excluding the far southern counties and far western counties.

SLIGHT RISK for Saturday for all other counties except the western Panhandle and far SE OK.

MARGINAL RISK for the Western Panhandle and far SE OK.

MAIN THREATS: All modes.

TIMING: Storms possible all day, severe risk increases in the afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION: For what is becoming common place now this season, we have yet another day with early convection making for an extremely complicated forecast. By 7AM on Saturday, we'll be looking at ongoing storms over NW OK, with some scattered showers/storms throughout the rest of western OK. Cloud cover may very well stick around for the entire day, obviously reducing severe risks, but 4km NAM is pushing some clearing in (or at least thinning of the cloud deck) over W OK by 1PM and Central OK shortly thereafter. This will be behind and initial line of storms that is forecast to run from the KS border to the TX one. By 3PM look for a line of storms, initially broken segments or isolated cells, from NE CO all the way south over extreme W OK into North Texas. We could also see activity over Eastern and Central OK get going earlier in the mid afternoon, making for just a complete mess of a setup.

With all of that noted here is a look at the potential setup - considering ideal conditions work out versus clouds of death all day for the storms. By 3PM we could see CAPE values at or above 3000 j/kg over much of Central and Western OK, 4km NAM wants pockets of 4000 j/kg, but I'm avoiding biting on that. Winds all across Central and Western OK appear to be backed from the Southeast providing a decent flow of moisture into the area and that favorable wind flow to feed these storms. We are also looking at widespread 0-1km EHI values over 3 for much of Central into Western OK - so the shear will be there. Look at the 12Z NAM products, SigTor values are pretty high by 7PM along the line of supercells out west and over Central OK. With the low level jet kicking in and increased upper air support, these values will increase through 10PM as they normally would. As far as the upper air support, it does appear we'll have a negatively tilted trough with this one and it will be moving in at roughly the right time to provide upper air support for any ongoing storms by late afternoon/early evening. Like we've seen before...upper air mechanics can sometimes overcome any issues at the surface (lower instability due to clouds).

As in days past...the more sun we see, the more significant the day.

Ok...Slated to hit the Craft Beer Festival between 5-8 Sat night....Will the afternoon storms start outside of OK giving us plenty of time to call it a night or will they fire off closer to the metro?

Been looking forward to this damn thing since last year so give me some good news.

Ok...Slated to hit the Craft Beer Festival between 5-8 Sat night....Will the afternoon storms start outside of OK giving us plenty of time to call it a night or will they fire off closer to the metro?

Been looking forward to this damn thing since last year so give me some good news.

fyi, they moved it indoors to the cox center.

QPF forecasts painting a familiar site for remainder of May.. 5-6 inches additional rainfall over much of state.

QPF forecasts painting a familiar site for remainder of May.. 5-6 inches additional rainfall over much of state.

That's going to cause a lot issues if that materializes. The drought would be pretty much be over for 90 percent of the state though.

Stillwater is still in severe drought as shown below for the latest update. The recent rainy period, which produced 2.5 to 3" there wasn't sufficient enough to take it out of the severe drought category. Projected rain amounts for Saturday by KFOR's Mike Morgan, if they turn out true, are so small they surely won't help much to improve the situation. Interesting, from looking at the map, how sharp the transition is as you go 20 miles south of Stillwater from severe drought to no drought at all. Oh, well, Boomer Lake in Stillwater, while still below the spillway, is noticeably well up and, nevertheless, at a decently good level. Elsewhere, it's also good that none of the state is no longer in exceptional drought.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/current/current_ok_trd.png?1386457140

Saturday Upgrade to Moderate Possible. STAY ALERT! Discussion later.

...CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF EARLY
DAY CONVECTION AND ITS POSSIBLE DELETERIOUS EFFECTS ON THE DEGREE OF
WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONG EML RESULTS IN
DEFERRAL ON A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE THIS OUTLOOK.

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS
OVER PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR AT 12Z/SAT. HOWEVER...SPREAD IS LARGE
IN HOW THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVES DURING THE LATE MORNING WHICH WILL BE
CRITICAL TO THE DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. WITHOUT A ROBUST
EML...EVEN LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING AMIDST PERVASIVE 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THIS CONVECTION EWD TOWARDS THE LOWER
PLAINS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S. SEVERE
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...AIR MASS RECOVERY IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN...WITH ANYWHERE FROM A MEAGER TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE VERY STRONG S/SWLY MID-LEVEL
JET OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT AND DCVA APPROACHES WITH
THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CROSSING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...DEEP ASCENT
WILL BECOME LARGE. BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES WILL
INCREASE AND BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH STORMS WOULD
PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT/...AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

Pretty gnarly storm here on the NW side this morning. Raining very heavily and the wind is formidable.

Venture or Anon,

Could one of you fine folks offer a bit of a definition for the term "Deep Ascent" as used in these outlooks? I've tried to draw an inference based on usage but I just don't think I'm getting there. It seems to mean the degree to which an airmass will tend to elevate (convect) even at (very) low or near-surface levels due to instability, hence broad deep ascent would be favorable for surface-based severe weather, but I'm just not sure.

Yes I believe you are on the right track. I have always vaguely understood it as being favorable for severe weather in the idea that "deep ascent" is the provision of the Jetstream overrunning a certain area has the ability to "exit" in the warm sector.

So for example, an upper-jet coming out of the SW in the TX panhandle and traveling more E/NE on top of the lower level that is traveling more N/NE, would be highly favorable for deep convection (read surface-based) to the east of the dryline (say it is on TX/OK border) and south of the warm/cold front (say it is draped across KS/OK border). So think of it as favorability for surface based storms in the right (S & E) side of a big letter X.

To me, "deep ascent" just refers to large-scale ascent through a deep layer of the atmosphere, generally be due to synoptic scale features as opposed to localized ascent (say, along a boundary, or a mountain). This can do a few things: it can help small-scale parcels reach the point where they saturate and rise on their own (which would result in widespread storms suddenly forming over an entire area, which we don't frequently see), but more importantly, it can modify the thermodynamic environment to make it more favorable for thunderstorms to form and sustain thesmselves, which I believe is what the SPC is getting at here. Individual storms form due to small-scale sources of ascent, but large-scale ascent just makes the environment much more favorable to sustain them by deepening lapse rates, reducing the cap, etc.

FYI --

NWS Norman @NWSNorman · 1h 1 hour ago
NEW - we have upgraded the ratings of two of last week's tornadoes. Both Bridge Creek and SE OKC tornadoes rated EF3. #okwx

NWS Norman @NWSNorman · 60m 60 minutes ago
We are working on a list of other confirmed tornadoes from May 6-9 and we hope to have some more details out later today.

To me, "deep ascent" just refers to large-scale ascent through a deep layer of the atmosphere, generally be due to synoptic scale features as opposed to localized ascent (say, along a boundary, or a mountain). This can do a few things: it can help small-scale parcels reach the point where they saturate and rise on their own (which would result in widespread storms suddenly forming over an entire area, which we don't frequently see), but more importantly, it can modify the thermodynamic environment to make it more favorable for thunderstorms to form and sustain themselves, which I believe is what the SPC is getting at here. Individual storms form due to small-scale sources of ascent, but large-scale ascent just makes the environment much more favorable to sustain them by deepening lapse rates, reducing the cap, etc.

What the man with the masters said. :)

Awesome, guys, thanks :)

Significant Severe Weather outbreak possible tomorrow. Please stay alert!

...PLAINS...
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MAY BE SUPPORTING SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND REMNANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA DEPICTED BY THE ENHANCED
RISK...AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE...THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WHILE THIS
CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHAT IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION.

EVEN THE NORMALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ONLY RELATIVELY MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY PEAK
LATE AFTERNOON HEATING...ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS IS WHERE STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUSED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE. WITH
A SIZABLE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WOULD SEEM
TO FAVOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
THAN IS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE OUTLOOK GRAPHICS. AS IT
IS...CONVECTION DOES SEEM LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY SUBSEQUENTLY
ORGANIZE...PARTICULARLY AS THE SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET STRENGTHENS TO
40-50+ KTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING.
AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED INTENSE AND LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS APPEAR
POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE
OF STRONG TORNADOES.

They are being less aggressive with their outlooks then they were last Friday and Saturday. I predict 100 percent chance that we will have to look at satellite and radar images tomorrow morning to figure out what will happen. Lol :)

I think the following portion of that summary speaks volumes:



EVEN THE NORMALLY MORE AGGRESSIVE NAM SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ONLY RELATIVELY MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG THE DRYLINE BY PEAK
LATE AFTERNOON HEATING


(emphasis mine)

I think that plus the possibility/unknown of morning convection/storms is making things a real crapshoot. My trick knee sez they'd really like to be more aggressive, but they have too many contrary variables to play that card right now.

Dicey setup.

WOW, Fri. night on the 10pm newscast, Mike Morgan sure did a good job showing how Stillwater is to be bypassed by the downpours this weekend. On his future rainfall map, he shows Stillwater getting the least of anybody with .18". OKC projected to get 1.05". Tulsa with the most with 2.94". Maybe Stillwater might as well be taken out of the flash flood watch. But we'll see how right or wrong Morgan is.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH

Updated: Fri May-15-15 02:02pm CDT
Effective: Fri May-15-15 02:02pm CDT
Expires: Sun May-17-15 07:00am CDT
Severity: Severe

Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Possible
Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Garvin; Grady; Greer; Harmon; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wa****a

Instructions: Monitor weather forecasts and information. Make plans to get to higher ground if flooding happens.

Message summary: ...flash flood watch in effect from late tonight through sunday morning...
.rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain will move slowly west to east across oklahoma and north texas late tonight through saturday night. Soils across the region remain saturated from heavy rainfall earlier in the week and additional rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches or higher across parts of the watch areas will likely result in an enhanced flash flood threat.
...flash flood watch remains in effect from 1 am cdt saturday through sunday morning...
The flash flood watch continues for
* portions of oklahoma and northern texas...including the following areas...in oklahoma...atoka...beckham...blaine...
Bryan...caddo...canadian...carter...cleveland...co al...
Comanche...cotton...custer...garvin...grady...gree r...harmon...
Hughes...jackson...jefferson...johnston...kingfish er...
Kiowa... Lincoln...logan...love...marshall...mcclain...
Murray... Oklahoma...payne...pontotoc...pottawatomie...
Seminole... Stephens...tillman and wa****a. In northern texas...archer... Baylor...clay...foard...hardeman...knox...
Wichita and wilbarger.
* from 1 am cdt saturday through sunday morning
* heavy rain falling on saturated soil will likely lead to extensive runoff which would result in flash flooding.
* 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts above 4 inches are possible.

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/rainamounts517.jpg

Forecast Update for the 16th... Significant Severe Weather Possible...

As advertised for the last 5 days, there has been a chance for storms tomorrow and it is appearing even more likely. Let's first set the stage with Friday evening's activity which will play a part. Time lines below are very Central Oklahoma oriented, so subtract a couple hours for weather impacts further west.

Now Through 12PM Saturday

As of 11PM, there are isolated storms throughout the panhandles with some more patches of moderate rain behind them. The 02Z HRRR has these picked up pretty well and marches them east. By 7AM the line of storms starts to get really ragged and is falling apart. Outside of a few showers in SW OK, there might still be some storms ongoing form the Clinton/Weatherford area up through Northern OK into Kansas. By Noon all of these activity is expected to be gone, outside of some redeveloping storms in NW OK.

Winds will be out of the South to South-Southeast during this time pushing in warm, moist air from Texas. The lack of any significant southern storms in Texas early will eliminate the risk of any obstruction to the moisture feed for storms in Oklahoma. By Noon HRRR already has CAPE values at or above 2000 j/kg over much of Western OK and North Central OK.

12PM Saturday through 3PM Saturday

00Z 4km NAM develops a secondary area of storms that the HRRR doesn't over Northwest Texas and Southwest OK by 7-9 AM tomorrow. It then brings this batch up through Central between 1 and 4 PM - potentially along an outflow boundary from earlier storms. Dewpoints on NAM look very high in the low 70s at the time these come through, falling into the upper 60s around any storm, but then quickly recovering. Instability for the storms appears to be moderate to high with CAPE values around 2000 j/kg. This means we could have some severe hail if these storms materialize. Tornado chances aren't exceptionally high during this time, but I wouldn't put them very low either. Norman forecast sounding for this time does have backing winds from the SE, decently low LCLs, and moderate to high instability. Some parameters definitely aren't in line perfectly for tornadoes, so that is why I'm think they won't be a major threat during this time - again, I'm not saying we can't see one during this time frame.

Saturday 3PM through 11PM

This is the time frame of the most intense severe weather tomorrow. By 3PM we should see a broken line of supercells, or string of pearls as weather geeks tend to call them, very near the OK/TX border out west. These will be the main show. 00Z NAM has them entering the Western Metro area counties by 8PM. I-35 by 10PM. Eastern Counties by 11PM. If NAM hits on the money, we could see CAPE values at or above 4000 j/kg from Payne County all the way southwest along I-44 to Wichita Falls, TX. 1km EHI values in Central OK at the time of the storms arrival will be near or above 4.00. SWEAT will be over 400, LCL about 905 mb, 1km SRH at 250, 0-1km Shear Speed at 26 kts, SigTOR values between 3 and 5. All in all a setup and environment favorable for tornadoes and some of them would be strong.

Saturday after 11PM


Things calm down for us here in Central OK and we see a squall line form up as the storms race east. Still expect some embedded rotations with the storms are they go east.

What could change all of this...

Of course the big factor in all of this is how advanced the storms get tonight and how long they hold together. Also where does all of that cirrus debris go and how fast do any low clouds burn off. We've dealt with this already on numerous occasions this year, but right now it appears tomorrow is probably going to be the best setup so far this year.

What to do now...

Prepare. Just have a plan, but go about your day. Know where you are going to go when the weather radios start going off. The chat room will be going all day, so we'll have you covered there. Don't panic and don't get nervous - just be ready to act. You WILL hear a lot of scary stuff tonight and tomorrow morning. One of the things likely to be going around are the analogs for how the setup tomorrow compares to past history. There are some scary dates in there, but keep in mind...last weekend had a lot of scary dates as well, but it all washed out.

Thought this was interesting to share...

Climatology map for today (the 16th)...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/climographics/all_torn/137.png

Upgraded to moderate risk.

https://scontent-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/11012037_625981127534544_5669214359268570256_n.jpg ?oh=71828ce70681ad1563d7717f0977ffc3&oe=56041C68

https://scontent-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/11261928_625981130867877_7065255461707217231_n.jpg ?oh=9cd1fa88ef8260fd0b2e5d83469670f6&oe=55D1803F

If the supercells fire out near the OK/TX border, do you see them remaining discreet by the time they reach the metro, or will they converge into a squall line?

If the supercells fire out near the OK/TX border, do you see them remaining discreet by the time they reach the metro, or will they converge into a squall line?

Nearly all guidance keeps them discreet until passing the Metro.

Thanks, V. We appreciate you.

As with many upper end days, we have a nice complicated setup this morning. Ongoing storms over the PH continue from Silverton, TX up through far NW OK. Then we have a second batch of showers with one or two storms mixed in over SW OK. Right now the SW OK isn't that expansive, but it is producing some cloud debris that might mitigate heating in that area. Could see one or two of the storms there get strong enough to put down some hail this morning. Here in Central OK it is generally a mix of some clouds and sun heating things up already. The morning sounding does have a weak cap in place that should restrict any widespread early activity from forming.

12Z HRRR has a good handle on things so far. It gets the main show of storms going around Noon or just after today out in the PH. These supercells will then march east through the rest of the day. Approaching the west Metro by 6PM, I-35 by 8PM, out of the eastern counties by 10PM.

Sig TOR parameters for 7PM look favorable for at least a few strong/intense and long-track tornadoes.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/12/OKC/hrrrOKC_con_stp_012.gif

If that garbage in SW OK clears out, it's going to really heat things up. Looks like behind it is already clearing up in NW TX with no additional convection at this time.

If that garbage in SW OK clears out, it's going to really heat things up. Looks like behind it is already clearing up in NW TX with no additional convection at this time.

Already falling apart and sun is shining in Harmon, Greer, and Jackson Counties.

Obviously the chat room is streaming today. :) Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0657.gif

1615Z satellite photo shows cloud cover over most of the state. Is/will that have much impact on storm development?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/mcd0658.gif

1615Z satellite photo shows cloud cover over most of the state. Is/will that have much impact on storm development?

Cloud deck isn't very thick in many parts, so heating is still taking place. Upper air dynamics are going to be very good today for storms, so the existing clouds likely won't do much.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFJSb8YUEAMSStV.jpg

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0175_radar.gif

Does it look more squall linish(made up word) out there now instead of isolated?

Does it look more squall linish(made up word) out there now instead of isolated?

No radar expert here, but the images I've been seeing still seem to feature cells of a more individualized character rather than a broad squall line. Standard caveats about being corrected by Ven, Anon, et al apply :)

Tornado Watch incoming.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/mcd0666.gif

Discussion # 666 huh?

TORNADO WATCH
Updated: Sat May-16-15 04:00pm CDT
Effective: Sat May-16-15 04:00pm CDT
Expires: Sun May-17-15 12:00am CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Harper; Hughes; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Stephens; Wash ita; Woods; Woodward

Message summary: Tornado watch 177 is in effect until 1200 am cdt for the following locations ok . Oklahoma counties included are alfalfa atoka blaine bryan caddo canadian carter cleveland coal comanche cotton custer dewey ellis garfield garvin grady grant harper hughes jefferson johnston kay kingfisher kiowa lincoln logan love major marshall mcclain murray noble oklahoma payne pontotoc pottawatomie seminole stephens washi ta woods woodward

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0669.gif

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
559 pm cdt sat may 16 2015


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
Southeastern jackson county in southwestern oklahoma...
Northwestern tillman county in southwestern oklahoma...
South central kiowa county in southwestern oklahoma...


* until 630 pm cdt

* at 558 pm cdt...a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
near humphreys...moving northeast at 30 mph.


This is a particularly dangerous situation.


Hazard...damaging tornado.


Source...radar indicated rotation.


Impact...you are in a life threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to
homes...businesses and vehicles is likely and complete
destruction is possible.


* locations impacted include...
Tipton...manitou...headrick...humphreys and hess.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...


To repeat...an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is
developing. To protect your life...take cover now! Move to a storm
shelter... Safe room or an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home...a vehicle or
outdoors...move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Power has been out for almost an hour now in nortth Edmond.

Well, Mike Morgan's prediction that Stillwater would miss out on the downpours and only get .18" was a total washout. From three widely spaced rain gauges in Stillwater reporting to wunderground, the amounts ranged from 1.05" to 1.10". Interestingly enough, several Mesonet reporting stations in eastern Oklahoma County got .19 and, so far, on station in Lincoln County got .21". So maybe Morgan needs to fine tune his precipitation fortune telling capabilities as to location. Or maybe quit looking ridiculous by trying to do it, or whoever does it for him. NWS computer models?

Does it look more squall linish(made up word) out there now instead of isolated?

Well it did turn out to be a squall line. Gary England eat your heart out

Good grief, I about crapped myself when they said there was a possible tornado less than a mile from my house. I live in the corner of a typical suburban apartment row, and I don't think it could take much... I'd really like to get people talking about public tornado shelters again...

Good grief, I about crapped myself when they said there was a possible tornado less than a mile from my house. I live in the corner of a typical suburban apartment row, and I don't think it could take much... I'd really like to get people talking about public tornado shelters again...

As long as the electricity doesn't suddenly go out during a tornado warning, you'll probably luck out. Or don't hear a loud roar a coming.

More rain soon for a number of Oklahomans who may still be in a drought. On Tuesday night, a 80-90% chance of thunderstorms for the still drought stricken north parts of Oklahoma. 90% for OKC.

Well, Mike Morgan's prediction that Stillwater would miss out on the downpours and only get .18" was a total washout. From three widely spaced rain gauges in Stillwater reporting to wunderground, the amounts ranged from 1.05" to 1.10". Interestingly enough, several Mesonet reporting stations in eastern Oklahoma County got .19 and, so far, on station in Lincoln County got .21". So maybe Morgan needs to fine tune his precipitation fortune telling capabilities as to location. Or maybe quit looking ridiculous by trying to do it, or whoever does it for him. NWS computer models?

I suspect your post is tongue in cheek, but you seem a little bit obsessed.