http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0148_radar.gif

ENHANCED RISK today west of a line from Cherokee to El Reno to Chickasha to Marietta.
SLIGHT RISK today west of a line from Nowata to Muskogee to Sigler to near Broken Bow.
MARGINAL RISK for the area east of the slight risk area.

Complete mess today with on going convection. One batch of moderate rain moving through into the I-35 corridor from Central to southern OK. Some small hail and occasional wind gusts possible with this. Next area is back in NW OK through the TX Panhandle. Severe Thunderstorm watch is already out for this area, but none of these storms are current severe.

Atmosphere is generally stable at the surface outside of Southwest OK. A clearing slot is moving into SW OK that should overspread much of it ahead of the line in the Panhandle. This clearing should reach Central OK by early afternoon. Depending on the evolution of the line in the Panhandle and the extra track it takes will impact how much heating we get through the afternoon. If it is relatively short lived, then severe weather chances will remain pretty meager later this afternoon and evening.

HRRR and 4km NAM want to destabilize this area, with some of the CAPE values getting quite extreme. I'm not sold on that at this time, but we have a lot of energy coming through so it could be possible. Today is really going to be about getting to the nitty gritty and really watching every little possible feature and evaluate the risk on a very localized scale. This means looking for boundaries, watch how far south the TX PH storms build, what type of air mass are surface winds originating from, how are the wind fields above the surface at any given point, etc.

So here is my general thought for Oklahoma today. If we can keep this clearing slot roughly in tact and move it NE into the Central OK, and take the storms in the TX PH and move them more NE without any additional development to the south...then there will be the possibility for one or two supercells to get going in that unstable atmosphere in the clearing slot. The key thing is that area needs to stay mostly clear, we can't have any convective debris or anvil blow off overspread it, and the moisture fetch from the South and Southeast needs to remain relatively untapped. At present we do have a fairly large blob over Decatur and Denton which can impact things, so that is going to be a strike there.

So right now we need to watch the line in the TX PH which hasn't been developing much further south at all for the last our. There are some cumulus clouds trying to go up in the clear slot already, so that might complicate things if we get convective garbage filling it in. Today definitely doesn't look as widespread as what it could have been, but that doesn't mean we won't get something significant if it can get established. It only takes one to make it a bad day.

Line still building south. It is clearing relatively quickly behind it, but this stuff will be over the state during peak heating so it probably will not matter.


The line is definitely falling apart and downtrending in intensity. If the remnants shove off and the clouds shear off to the NE, then we could attempt at clearing.

Should start seeing peaks of sun into the Metro area soon. Thinning clouds moving into Canadian and far western Oklahoma, Cleveland and McClain counties. Line in the panhandle which is the main wild card right now is still on the downward trend. One storm near Childress is trying to hang on, but it has been trending down here the last few scans.

Outflow boundary being kicked out ahead of these will need to be monitored for later. Also we need to see how the southern extent of the thick cloud cover moves. Right now it has been trending ENE. Current trajectory would have the southern edge of this cloud deck stay north of a Quanah - Chickasha - Seminole line. Putting the area south of that in sun for much of the afternoon. Granted there is CU going up and weak showers already polluting part of that area, but nothing ramping significantly. We also could see this outflow trigger additional high based activity well into this clear slot.

So we just need to watch it. Today is all about the fine details and there are a lot of them to evaluate.

Updated Day 1 - Enhanced Risk for all of Southern OK and also Western OK.

...SRN PLNS TO ARKLATEX TODAY/TNGT...
ANOTHER COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE
SRN PLNS...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONCERN. FIRST...HEATING
ALONG DIFFUSE W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N CNTRL/NE TX EWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCTD SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS
LATER TODAY INTO TNGT AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES AMPLY SHEARED
REGION. COUPLED WITH WEAK ASCENT PROVIDED BY AN APPARENT UPR IMPULSE
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT...SETUP COULD YIELD
DMGG WIND/TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL FROM STORM CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED
HP-TYPE STORMS/BOWING STRUCTURES.

FARTHER S AND W...OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE WITH DIURNAL HEATING
ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS OVER THE TX HILL
COUNTRY. AND...ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS MAY ARISE SE OF EXISTING
STORMS NOW NEAR CDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
SPAWN A COUPLE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
/MAINLY NARROW/ CORRIDORS OF DMGG WIND. LATE TNGT AND EARLY SUN...A
SEPARATE AREA OF SVR STORMS /MAINLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG
WIND/ MAY ARISE ALONG TRAILING SW PART OF LEE TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT
AS THE BOUNDARIES BECOME QSTNRY OVER SW TX/THE TX BIG BEND.

The national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northern cotton county in southwestern oklahoma...
Comanche county in southwestern oklahoma...
Southwestern grady county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern stephens county in southern oklahoma...


* until 1245 pm cdt


* at 1153 am cdt...severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles northwest of cookietown to 4 miles east of
walters...moving north at 35 mph.


Hazard...ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

The national weather service has extended severe thunderstorm
watch 148 to include the following areas until 2 pm cdt this
afternoon

in oklahoma this watch includes 10 counties

in central oklahoma

canadian cleveland grady
mcclain oklahoma

in southern oklahoma

garvin jefferson stephens

in southwest oklahoma

comanche cotton

in texas this watch includes 1 county

in northern texas

wichita

Just too much lift, storms keep developing over the clearing skies. Looks like this is how most of today will go. Great rainfalls, just watch out for urban flooding.

Keep an eye on the storm near Corum/Empire City moving towards Duncan. No blockage to the south and it is rotating at this time with an inflow area.

HRRR hinting at dryline firing late.

TOR Watch upgrade incoming

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CElWyczWEAEMVgN.png

Tstorms coming in around 2:00 is good news for later correct?

2-hour HRRR forecast doesn't even have any of the storms currently approaching the metro. Just goes to speak toward how complex today's evolution is.

http://www.owxphotography.com/concrete/wxmaps/hrrr/20150509/1700Z/f002/refok.png

Depending on the recovery of the air mass out here.. There is signs on the southern end that CU field is trying to build back in.

http://i.imgur.com/ykeTZwp.jpg

In oklahoma this cancels 8 counties

in central oklahoma

canadian lincoln logan
oklahoma payne

in southwest oklahoma

caddo jackson kiowa

in texas this cancels 1 county

in northern texas

hardeman

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEmHtAVW8AALSpV.png

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-05/day1otlk_1200.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK SWD INTO
NE AND ECNTRL TX...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB...IA
AND FAR SE SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...ARKLATEX...CNTRL PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MS VALLEY...MID MO
VALLEY AND NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...ARKLATEX...CNTRL PLAINS...OZARKS...MID TO UPPER MS
VALLEY...OH VALLEY...MID MO VALLEY AND NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN SC AND
SE NC...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST
AND EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. SOME
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS.

...SRN PLAINS/OZARKS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS A
COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A CLUSTER OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK IN WCNTRL AND NW
TX ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF A 40 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD HAVE A HAIL THREAT AS THE CLUSTER MOVES EWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX
THIS MORNING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS
SHOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS ECNTRL AND NE TX IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S F SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE MORNING CLUSTER OF
STORMS. NEW CELLS THAT CAN INITIATE AND REMAIN DISCRETE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FOR NE TX SHOW A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG...AND 50 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER NE TX MAY
MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. WIND DAMAGE COULD
ALSO OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS AND THE BETTER ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS. A
SEVERE THREAT IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO
ECNTRL TX AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET PASSES
BY. THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE TX
HILL COUNTRY.

...MID MO VALLEY/NRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY AS THE
EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE MID MO VALLEY. A
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
NWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY AND EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS MO AND IA WITH OTHER STORMS INITIATING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM ERN KS NWD INTO ERN
NEB AND FAR SE SD. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT OMAHA FOR 21Z SHOW SBCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
ESPECIALLY BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL JET WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST.
EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE NEWD
ACROSS ERN NEB INTO WRN IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WHERE LARGE
HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.

...FAR ERN SC/ERN NC...
TROPICAL STORM ANNA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
MOVE INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING JUST TO THE NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH. AS
CONVECTION MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE CENTER OF ANNA NEWD TO NEAR
MOREHEAD CITY...STRONG WIND FIELDS MAY ENABLE THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES/LEITMAN.. 05/10/2015

Short term models converging on pushing the dryline through around 4PM in Central OK. Storms could initiate right around that time or just before. We'll just have to keep an eye on it to see how fast storms are able to go up in the wake of the morning line.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0154_radar.gif

It only rained .15 here overnight, so maybe the line that came through, depending on how strong, overall, it was, didn't suck up too much energy. Clouds are thinning now as of nearly 11am, so it may turn sunny enough to add to the instability.

Since much of the state will have received rain 5 or 6 days in a row, it will be interesting to see how the next drought map will look. Currently, most of the southeast quarter of the state is free of drought with sharp transitioning going from no drought to exceptional drought elsewhere.

Atmosphere getting moderately unstable ahead of the cold front out west. Short term models continue to develop storms between 1PM and 3PM ahead of the front near or just west of I-35. Main threat will be large hail, but a quick spin up not out of the question or some gusty winds. At this time we'll be in pure sun until the front passes by. So just stay aware.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-05/10-001.PNG

Skinny line of CU going up along he front. Instability/CAPE up to 2000 j/kg ahead of it now. No CIN left. Expect new line to start in the next hour or so.

First cell going up in Blaine County.

We are considering driving from OKC/Edmond to Ponca City (and back....probably on the road within the 1:00pm - 7:00 pm timeframe), via I-35. Bad idea at this time or looking safe enough?

Storms going up now near Braman, , Covington, Waukomis, Hennessey, Loyal, and Greenfield.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/mcd0588.gif

Tornado Watch Soon

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEqb3VEUgAEY_IU.png

Initial storm development got up to a point before quickly fading away. They tried to form too early. Maybe they will try again within several hours to reform. If not, it will be interesting to see if part of this tornado watch will have to be canceled as well. But until then people need to stay wary for further developments.

The national weather service has cancelled tornado watch 157 for
the following areas

in oklahoma this cancels 2 counties

in northern oklahoma

kay noble

The national weather service has cancelled tornado watch 157 for
the following areas

in oklahoma this cancels 2 counties

in northern oklahoma

kay noble

It might as well have included Payne County since the wind here has shifted to the northwest.

Storm going up pretty fast now over Cole moving NE towards Central and East Norman and Noble. Small hail possible at this time.

Definitely going to change, but right now GFS has a shot at storms/rain over most of OK for all remaining days in May, except for like 4.

Looks like Friday, Saturday, and probably Sunday are going to be the next "big days". Lots of rain Wednesday.

Looks like it's safe for OK and TX to lift an water restrictions for a while. They were pulling people off roofs yesterday.

Looks like it's safe for OK and TX to lift an water restrictions for a while. They were pulling people off roofs yesterday.

Some reservoirs are still below normal. I wouldn't pull any water restrictions for at least two more weeks to allow some balance to occur, then assess.

Do we have a total rainfall amount yet for the four-day period?

This should capture everything with this recent stretch...

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.168hr.png

This should capture everything with this recent stretch...

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.168hr.png

Those are some fine-looking numbers; just wish the red zone extended further northwest (Canton).

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THURSDAY AT 7 AM. INCLUDES OKLAHOMA COUNTY

Flash Flood Watch

Updated: Mon May-11-15 03:37pm CDT
Effective: Mon May-11-15 03:37pm CDT
Expires: Thu May-14-15 07:00am CDT
Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Possible
Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Atoka; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wa****a

Instructions: Monitor weather forecasts and information. Make plans to get to higher ground if flooding happens.

Message summary: ...a flash flood watch is in effect from late tuesday night through thursday morning...
.widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to move into portions of southwestern oklahoma and western north texas late tuesday night...and continue to fill into portions of northern...central...and southern oklahoma through the day on wednesday. Rain should slowly taper off wednesday night into thursday morning. Prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall will lead to increasing flash flood concerns...especially in the wake of last weeks heavy rainfall.
...flash flood watch in effect from late tuesday night through thursday morning...
The national weather service in norman has issued a
* flash flood watch for all of western north texas...and much of northern...central...and southern oklahoma.
* from 1 am cdt wednesday through thursday morning
* widespread and prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall is expected late tuesday night through early thursday morning. This will lead to widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches across the watch area.
* given the recent heavy rains over the past week...additional heavy rainfall is likely to result in flash flooding...and worsening river flood conditions.

nm

Does the severe weather coming for Thursday-Saturday look like a particularly high-end setup at this point?

Saturday looks pretty big from here. We'll know more details in a couple days.

Lots of high school graduations, sporting events, etc happening during this time. UUGH.

I know it is only May 12th, but looking ahead are there any signs of things quieting down?

I posted above earlier, but right now long-term model guidance suggests chances of rain/storms (including severe weather throughout) somewhere in the state almost daily from now until the end of May.

I know it is only May 12th, but looking ahead are there any signs of things quieting down?

Potential for tornadic conditions and flash flooding usually can't be depended upon to settle down until late June. Stillwater's Friday the 13th tornado, with it's 40th anniversary coming up, happened on June 13th.

I know it is only May 12th, but looking ahead are there any signs of things quieting down?

Quiet weather is Boring !!

Potential for tornadic conditions and flash flooding usually can't be depended upon to settle down until late June. Stillwater's Friday the 13th tornado, with it's 40th anniversary coming up, happened on June 13th.

True, but the entire state averages only 7 tornadoes during the month of June so statistically it is much, much quieter than May. I also enjoy the overnight NW flow MCS thunderstorms that are typical in June.

True, but the entire state averages only 7 tornadoes during the month of June so statistically it is much, much quieter than May. I also enjoy the overnight NW flow MCS thunderstorms that are typical in June.

I would expect an extended severe weather season this year that should continue through June at least, especially with a strong EL-Nino that has now formed.

Quiet weather is Boring !!
Boredom is a state of mind. You must be a boring person.

Quiet weather is Boring !!
I can introduce you to thousands of people impacted by the non-boring weather and let you tell them that you want more non-boring weather.

I would expect an extended severe weather season this year that should continue through June at least, especially with a strong EL-Nino that has now formed.

It's a little bit early to take the notions of a strong El Nino and specifically extrapolate that to a severe weather season "continuing through June at least." There are one or two other factors at play in that, if I'm not mistaken.

Not saying it can't happen, but it's a lot like a spring equivalent of a wintertime "bread and milk" alert when a snowflake falls and the airtemp is around 31....Let's get past this week and let the flooded and/or stormed-out folks catch their breath before another round of "non-boring" weather rolls around, okay?

El Nino is still in its early stages so we won't start to feel its effects until this fall.

June isn't really quiet, the severe weather modes just change to more of a high wind, heavy rain, heavy hail threat, but tornados are more exciting even though the area they affect is usually small.

I wonder if there is any correlation between the rain amounts we've seen so far this year as to what we received in 2007 (which was a record for yearly rainfall in OKC). I particularly remember the fall time being extremely wet then.

http://www.sdubz.com/forums/styles/smilies/smilies/indifferent-blink.gif

Grrr. We're supposed to have my son's 3rd birthday Saturday afternoon. Here's hoping for a bust.

http://www.sdubz.com/forums/styles/smilies/smilies/indifferent-blink.gif

Grrr. We're supposed to have my son's 3rd birthday Saturday afternoon. Here's hoping for a bust.

The biggest issue with Saturdays forecast is that there may be ongoing storms and there may not be much of a cap to stop storms from forming way early in the day to maximize potential energy.

The biggest issue with Saturdays forecast is that there may be ongoing storms and there may not be much of a cap to stop storms from forming way early in the day to maximize potential energy.

So it's setting up to possibly be last Saturday?

Does anyone care to predict what time the rain starts in metro area tomorrow?