What are the odds of the SPC upgrading Saturdays risk to high and also labeling it a particularly dangerous situation?
It certainly looks like those possibility exist?

What are the odds of the SPC upgrading Saturdays risk to high and also labeling it a particularly dangerous situation?
It certainly looks like those possibility exist?

Well a high risk would be a PDS, so they kinda go hand in hand.

All will depend on evolution of storms from Friday. I'm pretty much expecting Saturday to go High Risk somewhere though.

According to a News Ogle, K4, Gov. Fallin is reminding us to be "Weather Aware"

Dang. I wish I'da already considered that.

(side--not iso--bar): I recently encountered a "person of color" with a Florida tag on the car at the local Love's gas pumps. It was Saturday, exactly at Noon. The Sirens went off on a nearly cloudless day. He was so flustered--and looking around at the sky--that he had to ask me, "Wha'???!!!" All I could say was: "It's Oklahoma. And it's OK. Saturday, at noon they sound the sirens." He breathed a sigh of relief and said, 'Thanks . . . I couldn't make any sense out of all that." I resisted the urge to say, "It could have been worse . . . It might have been The Russians carrying out a Nuclear Strike." I figured that a noob to OK, from FLA, already had to deal with hurricanes and 'gators so I didn't want to increase his stress level.

This should probably be on a different thread regarding Storm Sirens . . .
Yet the specific location is difficult to Pintrest.

He must not be from an area that gets many hurricanes. They test the sirens there around the same day and time.

The national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Southern love county in southern oklahoma...

* until 815 pm cdt

* at 741 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near gainesville...moving north at 25 mph.

Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.

Source...radar indicated rotation.

Impact...flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs...windows and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* locations impacted include...
Marietta and thackerville.

Large Wedge tornado moving through Cooke County Texas towards Valley View north towards Gainesville and evening Thackerville. LLJ is on.

Holy Hail in Colorado Springs today

Conditions do not seem favorable for redevelopment and training along I40. What's the latest update for overnight?

Atmosphere is relatively stabilized now. If things start out clear skies tomorrow, could be a serious day.

lucky me, I'm in liberal KS tonight and get to drive back to OKC tomorrow

Are things tomorrow looking more Western Oklahoma, in terms of the tornado threat?

Are things tomorrow looking more Western Oklahoma, in terms of the tornado threat?

Everyone in the moderate or enhance area should stay aware of conditions. I don't think the NWS should be have a four level scale regarding tornado potential. As we all know storms have no regard to imaginary lines humans draw on maps, but I know they felt pressure to have their own graphic since the media does.

Yesterday, was a crazy day and that was considered a "Low tornado potential" day according to the NWS Norman graphic.

KOCOdamonlane: Oklahoma: Tomorrow will be one of those days that you do not want to be on the roads between 4-6pm. Tornado threat is high.

00Z NAM just about done running.

Needless to say. You are going to hear hype go overload starting tonight. Do not panic. Do not get scared. Get prepared and know what to do. NAM is painting a picture that is quite significant and it could also lead to night time tornadoes in the metro area. We might see some early crapvection storms spread over, ignore those. Main show kicks off along the dryline in the West. We could see a few isolated sups spawn ahead of this main area. All of this by 3-5PM tomorrow. Some are forecast to move NE while the main line of sups out west will move east. This main line should be in the Metro area by 8-9PM. They should be out of here by 11PM. Some pictures to go along...

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/NAM-test/024/SKT_NAM__KOUN.png

Forecast sounding for 7PM over Norman. This is what we call textbook for rotating tornadic storms. On the right side has the near perfect wind pattern as you go up in height. Looking at the numbers, instability is high, LI is well up there (or down rather I guess), SWEAT is high, 0-1km Shear is pretty high, really...this is a pretty text book sounding. We'll see how it evolves.

Stay aware...don't get all worried and just be ready. After all of these big outbreaks we've had in the past, casualties are still amazingly low and people survive these without any the ideal safety rooms. So don't even worry about that.

Is there a dense fog creeping into the city from the NW? I'm certain that's what I'm seeing from my balcony.

Is there a dense fog creeping into the city from the NW? I'm certain that's what I'm seeing from my balcony.

It appears so: https://twitter.com/stephenlocke/status/596547265986166785

Day 1 Moderate Risk shifted to mostly SW 1/4th of OK. It is almost bordered perfectly by I-40 on the North and I-35 on the East.

Highest tornado risk is at 10% and this is actually offset slightly further east coverage the entire OKC metro and back to the South.

Giant hail threat is at 45% in the Moderate Risk area.

05Z HRRR paints a nice complicated and annoying picture that usually comes with these days. Some garbage showers possible to form around 5AM with storm initiation just after daybreak in West Texas. These are projected to form into a complex and march northeast. Additional cells form north of it into Western OK. Storms approach the far western metro area by Noon. They pass through by 4PM. Latest RAP run doesn't do the early initiation. GFS also holds the storms off until about Noon in the Panhandles. NAM, as described earlier, is more inline with GFS. So we get to figure out if HRRR is out to lunch or if there is something to it.

Even if HRRR pans out, it still brings through rotating storms...
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/05/OKC/hrrrOKC_con_uphly_015.gif

So is this looking like potentially another instance of storms firing in SW OK and moving up the H.E Bailey into the metro area?

Still holding out hope that we can have our picnic today. But I'm feeling doubtful. I don't want to be a whistle-blower, but I also don't want us to all get trapped in a potentially dangerous situation. It could be sunny and fine here while some other place is under the gun. Ugh.

I just want to have some fun, man. Why you gotta ruin that, weather? *shakes fist at sky, but not too much so as to not anger it any more*

SPC trimming MODERATE back even more now, 10% TOR is basically SW and SC OK into NC TX.

Pretty thick deck of clouds over most of the area. We'll see how/if this burns off.

HRRR suggesting things could be a little more messy and not as organized (isolated). Kind of like yesterday across NW TX.

SPC trimming MODERATE back even more now, 10% TOR is basically SW and SC OK into NC TX.

Pretty thick deck of clouds over most of the area. We'll see how/if this burns off.

Let's hope this trend continues.

technical discussion follows on this link
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNorman/posts/931143010239960

Pretty thick layer of clouds still over NW OKC. Hopefully they can hang on.

So recap of what we have right now.

SPC outlook updated about 20 minutes ago has the Moderate Risk in basically the same area still. It still runs north to just over I-40 and all the way east to I-35. 10% Tornado area is slightly offset south now with the northern edge including Jackson, Kiowa, Wa****a, Caddo, Grady, McClain, Garvin, and Pontotoc Counties. However, storms don't care about human placed boundaries so just keep that in mind.

Current radar has an active severe storm already west of Lubbock with other storms developing west of that and also back towards Abilene. Watch is likely for this area up to the Southwest tip of Oklahoma soon.

Surface analysis has 70+ dewpoints all over East Texas that will be getting pulled northward today. Of course the big question is how far north will the outflow boundary from yesterday come. The showers in North Texas area pretty much right on that boundary. Looking at visible satellite with some daylight now...clearing exists for some of South Central OK back into North Texas. Just to the west of that, low cloud deck/fog still exists. This should burn off pretty easily. As everything lifts north and the sun burns through, instability should start to increase pretty quickly today. The activity on the boundary has been highlighted as something that cool keep it from getting too far north, but right now it doesn't appear as though it'll cause many issues.

12Z & 13Z (still partial) HRRR have a good handle on morning precip for a change. It'll bring the storms in by late afternoon and pull the boundary over around the same time. SigTOR values are significant even with this mess of convection.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/12/OKC/hrrrOKC_con_stp_012.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/12/OKC/hrrrOKC_prec_radar_012.gif

4KM NAM has a line of supercells west of OKC by 6PM, but splits them around the city by 7PM. As usual, don't take exact placement of any of these simulated reflectivity products to the bank.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/12/FLT/nam4kmFLT_prec_radar_011.gif

Pretty much all of the major cells are shown to be rotating as well...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/12/FLT/nam4kmFLT_con_uphly_011.gif

Main thing...like every typical higher end event, it takes just one thing to be off to shut it down...but if things happen just right it can be pretty bad. Just be prepared and we'll see how it plays out.

First Tornado Watch of the day is now active over West and parts of North Texas.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0142_radar.gif

Cloud deck is really starting to thin out, but is still very thick over SW OK. Looks like C OK will be destabilizing soon.

Here's a good map for how much radiation is actually penetrating the cloud deck. This helps us determine how thick the clouds are.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.SRAD.grad.png

V, I was able to get to your chat, earlier, but it's been locking up in the last few minutes (never ending leading). Rebooted but didn't help. Presumably that will resolve, later, but I was letting you know. As always, we appreciate you.

I can't get in either, Venture.

I can't get in either, Venture.

Guys, Venture had to do some updates to his site that involved some network changes w/Cox, so you might need to refresh a few times to get the update to come through.

Here is an alternate to get into the chat directly...
WeatherSpotlight (http://chatwing.com/chatbox/22d2261c-811f-4f83-9f88-210effd109ac)

Started getting some security attacks on the site last night so the new IP address hasn't gone or totally yet.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/mcd0543.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX/SOUTHWEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081722Z - 081845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH TX INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK...INCLUDING A MULTI-MODAL-RELATED
TORNADO/LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX STORM MODE INCLUDING SOME LOOSELY CLUSTERED
SUPERCELLS IS EVOLVING AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX. AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO
STEADILY OCCUR NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A PRIOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TX...WHILE THICKER CLOUD COVER HAS TENDED TO LINGER
INTO OK AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT CLUSTERED SUPERCELLS
WILL TEND TO PERSIST EAST-NORTHEASTWARD POTENTIALLY AS AN
UPSCALE-GROWING COMPLEX INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF NORTH TX AND
ADJACENT WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK CENTERED ALONG THE RED RIVER VICINITY.
LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE PRIMARY RISK IN THE SHORT-TERM
/EARLY AFTERNOON/...BUT DAMAGING WINDS/SOME TORNADO RISK SHOULD
BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
OCCURS.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEgHDv9WYAAiRUO.png

For those who don't like the local policy about sounding sirens in Okla. City.

http://www.okc.gov/news/2015_05/Tornado_Sirens_101_What_sirens_mean_in_OKC.html


“Think about a busy parent hearing sirens at their office in north Oklahoma City where the weather seems fine, but their teenager is home alone on the south side and might be in danger,” said Emergency Manager Frank Barnes. “Our policy is to sound sirens everywhere in the City, no matter where the tornado threat is, so people know to seek more information about the weather and decide what protective measures they need to take.”

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/mcd0545.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 143 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/watch/ww0143.html)...

VALID 081912Z - 082045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 143 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MAINLY A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...WHILE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ALSO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TX/IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VICINITY OF OK WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. TORNADO
WATCH 143 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH COULD BE NEEDED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR MORE OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SEVERE CLUSTERS/HIGH PRECIP SUPERCELLS WITH
HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING RECENT TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL
REPORTS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OK...LIKELY FAVORING A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE OKC METRO AREA.
LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO RISK SHOULD BECOME AN INCREASING
CONCERN AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO
OCCUR. A SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM NORMAN SAMPLED MORE THAN
1500 J/KG MLCAPE WITH MODESTLY STRONG/AMPLE TURNING OF
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS.

FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...ADDITIONAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO/ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TX IN
VICINITY OF OUTFLOW IN ADDITION TO NEAR-RED RIVER PORTIONS OF OK BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

For those who don't like the local policy about sounding sirens in Okla. City.

http://www.okc.gov/news/2015_05/Tornado_Sirens_101_What_sirens_mean_in_OKC.html

I'm in total agreement with this policy, but you know, people just want to bitch.

For those who don't like the local policy about sounding sirens in Okla. City.

http://www.okc.gov/news/2015_05/Tornado_Sirens_101_What_sirens_mean_in_OKC.html

That flies directly in the face of the notion that the sirens are for "outdoor individuals" only. And I've heard that line more than once.

I agree with the policy and think it should stay the same.

Do we have firm fix on the warm fronts location?
I’M thinking it’s just south of Norman?

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
355 pm cdt fri may 8 2015


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
South central jackson county in southwestern oklahoma...
West central tillman county in southwestern oklahoma...
Southeastern hardeman county in northern texas...
Northwestern wilbarger county in northern texas...


* until 445 pm cdt

* at 355 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near medicine mound...moving east at 40 mph.


Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.


Source...radar indicated rotation.

Tornado Watch for rest of metro being issued.

The national weather service has extended tornado watch 143 to
include the following areas until 9 pm cdt this evening

in oklahoma this watch includes 8 counties

in central oklahoma

canadian cleveland lincoln
logan oklahoma pottawatomie

in east central oklahoma

pontotoc seminole

this includes the cities of...ada...chandler...el reno...
Guthrie...moore...mustang...norman...oklahoma city...seminole...
Shawnee and yukon.

The national weather service has extended tornado watch 143 to
include the following areas until 9 pm cdt this evening

in oklahoma this watch includes 8 counties

in central oklahoma

canadian cleveland lincoln
logan oklahoma pottawatomie

in east central oklahoma

pontotoc seminole

this includes the cities of...ada...chandler...el reno...
Guthrie...moore...mustang...norman...oklahoma city...seminole...
Shawnee and yukon.

Storms blowing up as they come into the metro!

So is it pretty much wind/hail/flooding for the metro at this point? Any real tornado risk here?

So is it pretty much wind/hail/flooding for the metro at this point? Any real tornado risk here?

You realize all of the above things can be just as destructive as a tornado, right? And that flooding is going to cause people a lot more headaches because most won't have flood insurance and regular insurance won't pay for their homes, whereas regular homeowners insurance does help with tornado recovery? I do not understand you.

If the chat tends to stop, just refresh the page.

Moving to a rain threat not for most...if you are still ahead of the storms or in the southern/east areas of existing storms still keep an eye out as the LLJ increases.

So is it pretty much wind/hail/flooding for the metro at this point? Any real tornado risk here?

Mike Morgan on channel 4 said the situation has improved enough so the chance of a tornado is near zero. But he is still worried about a significant risk for tornadoes on Saturday. I've been through a tornado in a car(fortunately car stayed upright and in the street) and far too close for comfort for another one, so I can understand your concern about tornadoes.

Bulletin - eas activation requested
tornado warning
national weather service norman ok
659 pm cdt fri may 8 2015


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
Northern seminole county in east central oklahoma...
Southeastern lincoln county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern pottawatomie county in central oklahoma...


* until 730 pm cdt

* at 659 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located 5 miles west of little...moving east at 25 mph.


Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.


Source...radar indicated rotation.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-04/08-001.png

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEhhXQTWEAA6KXu.png

This storm dumped some extremely impressive rainfall amounts. I was at home near 63rd & Meridian and I was astonished at how fast the rain was coming down. It was seriously mind blowing. Backyard had standing water everywhere. We'll have to wait next week for the official Drought Monitor to be updated, but I am going to go ahead and consider the drought over!

Is there a possibility of tomorrow being a washout like Anon talked about?

The 30 day rain total from the mesonet is just mind blowing. Who ever is rain dancing, keep it up.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.720hr.png

Is there a possibility of tomorrow being a washout like Anon talked about?

Tomorrow shouldn't be a total wash out. We'll have early morning storms come through, but they should be out by noon to 1PM. That should allow us to dry out, destabilize again, and be reloaded for the afternoon/evening.

When will the storms start popping up in central Oklahoma tomorrow?

We will have a wave of garbage convection developing out in the TX PH over the next 3 hours. This will shove off east quickly and into OK by morning. Then we will see how we do on burning off the cloud deck and destabilizing. Really just depends on how tomorrow early day pans out.

1. Looks like we should have a solid 3-4 hours of baking in the sun close to 80F and dews in the 66-70F range. This would be a worse case scenario as the dryline would fire on the TX/OK border and march however many monster cells eastward. Heavy rain a guarantee, hail likely, tornadoes possible.

2. Morning convection sticks around for long time and leave stubborn cloud deck in place for most of the day and we barely make 70F (like Friday). This scenario would likely result in the major action being up in NW OK into SW KS where the atmosphere will likely be better destabilized.

3. Either way, we could still get some nasty storms even if there is some cloud cover keeping a lid on things from going into the extreme category. We saw the last couple days that supercells can still get rowdy in a cloud covered 68F atmosphere.

4. We will have to watch for outflow boundaries from Friday's storms and the morning convection. these will be easier to find tomorrow on vis sat and wind profiles.

Moderate risk pulled out of most of Oklahoma. Mostly slight risk, but do have an enhanced risk over thethe Northwest. All depend on how much ongoing convection we have and how soon it clears up. Stay aware.

Thanks to both of you

Any recommendations on whether it would be a good/bad idea to take a partial day trip down to Ardmore and back for the Mother's day weekend in the middle of all of this?

The threat for high-end severe in the OKC metro has diminished significantly. Main threat today will continue to be flooding with any storms that move through the area. Higher tornado threat still exists in far west and northwest OK where some clearing and destabilization could occur following passage of morning convection.