Venture, what is Saturday morning looking like? I've got a loved one flying to Indianapolis early that morning and am having some anxiety over them making the flight.

Edit: The itinerary is DFW - CLT - IND for Saturday morning.

As a meteorologist, that was one of the most ridiculous evolutions of a storm that I've ever seen. It did remind me a bit of 5/31/13 (sans that large/strong of a tornado), but I was back home dealing with a family situation at the time and didn't watch the radar in real-time for most of that event. Still trying to wrap my head around it. Later on in the evening, seemingly random couplets were forming and just being slingshot around the main mesocyclone and dissipating just as quickly as they formed (particularly in the southern half of OKC). I'm confident a lot of investigating and research will be done on this as a case study... pretty incredible stuff. Myself and a bunch of friends couldn't get home last night and wound up sleeping at friends' houses or in our offices... and saw some pretty bad damage around I35/SE44th while driving back home today. :(

Between all of the rain two nights ago and the insane rains last night, I shudder to think what would happen with more widespread rain over the area today. And I'll be the first to admit that the models did not forecast this well at all. I think the local mets (and SPC) did a pretty good job (sans a few comments on-air that made me cringe) considering the strange evolution of the storm and being on air for 8 hours straight... pretty noble work IMO. But from what I can recall none of the models really forecast anything close to what wound up transpiring last night.

Does tonight look like a repeat, with supercells going up in SW OK and moving up the H.E. Bailey into OKC?

Does tonight look like a repeat, with supercells going up in SW OK and moving up the H.E. Bailey into OKC?

No, It'll be storms moving in a line from the Texas panhandle through Oklahoma. It should just be mainly heavy rain and some hail/wind.

Not to alarm anyone, but some of the short-range models are painting another 3-6 inches of rain over much of C OK through tonight with the storms that will be evolving out of NW TX and into SW and W OK.

Yikes. Listening to the scanner last night, OKCFD was being worked very hard. Hope tonight isn't as bad.

Sirens don't really bother me that much. They may be annoying but they force people to keep paying attention at a time they should be paying attention. We had a tornado heading NW last night, that's insane.

As a meteorologist, that was one of the most ridiculous evolutions of a storm that I've ever seen. It did remind me a bit of 5/31/13 (sans that large/strong of a tornado), but I was back home dealing with a family situation at the time and didn't watch the radar in real-time for most of that event. Still trying to wrap my head around it. Later on in the evening, seemingly random couplets were forming and just being slingshot around the main mesocyclone and dissipating just as quickly as they formed (particularly in the southern half of OKC). I'm confident a lot of investigating and research will be done on this as a case study... pretty incredible stuff. Myself and a bunch of friends couldn't get home last night and wound up sleeping at friends' houses or in our offices... and saw some pretty bad damage around I35/SE44th while driving back home today. :(

Between all of the rain two nights ago and the insane rains last night, I shudder to think what would happen with more widespread rain over the area today. And I'll be the first to admit that the models did not forecast this well at all. I think the local mets (and SPC) did a pretty good job (sans a few comments on-air that made me cringe) considering the strange evolution of the storm and being on air for 8 hours straight... pretty noble work IMO. But from what I can recall none of the models really forecast anything close to what wound up transpiring last night.

Yesterday morning, the meteorologists were predicting isolated severe weather centered on western Oklahoma. What ended up happening was a major outbreak centered on OKC. It's hard to believe it was a slight risk day and OKC wasn't even included in that risk yesterday morning. I am extremely nervous about Saturday.

Do you know what it is about the H.E. Bailey Turnpike. Why do severe outbreaks so many times happen with supercells going up in SW OK, going up the turnpike into the OKC area impacting Moore?

Hey Venture is there a problem with the chat room on Weather Spotlight? I get page can not be displayed where the chat should be and nothing on my system has changed or been blocked. The twitter feeds on the left show up fine just no chat.

Sirens don't really bother me that much. They may be annoying but they force people to keep paying attention at a time they should be paying attention. We had a tornado heading NW last night, that's insane.

Agree. Tornadoes can turn and form w/out notice, so warning a large area is prudent, despite the fact that it may warn people in an area out of danger. We were safe in downtown, but when the one popped up at S 44th & I-35, and KOCO said it might suddenly have turned N/NW, we were taken aback and headed into the basement for a bit.

Agree. Tornadoes can turn and form w/out notice, so warning a large area is prudent, despite the fact that it may warn people in an area out of danger. We were safe in downtown, but when the one popped up at S 44th & I-35, and KOCO said it might suddenly have turned N/NW, we were taken aback and headed into the basement for a bit.

Did downtown get flooded like on May 31st?

Hey Venture is there a problem with the chat room on Weather Spotlight? I get page can not be displayed where the chat should be and nothing on my system has changed or been blocked. The twitter feeds on the left show up fine just no chat.

None that I am aware of. There are several of us in there right now chatting with no issue. Only changes I made this morning were to the streaming source (youtube instead of ustream).

None that I am aware of. There are several of us in there right now chatting with no issue. Only changes I made this morning were to the streaming source (youtube instead of ustream).

Dang, I wonder how I can fix it then

One fatality now being reported as someone drowned in their storm shelter. :(

How is the Oklahoma River? I'm supposed to have a picnic at Wiley Post Park with my band and orchestra students tomorrow evening but if there is a chance of flooding that way I'll likely cancel. It would be nice to give them a heads up since they're all bringing food.

Yesterday morning, the meteorologists were predicting isolated severe weather centered on western Oklahoma. What ended up happening was a major outbreak centered on OKC. It's hard to believe it was a slight risk day and OKC wasn't even included in that risk yesterday morning. I am extremely nervous about Saturday.

Do you know what it is about the H.E. Bailey Turnpike. Why do severe outbreaks so many times happen with supercells going up in SW OK, going up the turnpike into the OKC area impacting Moore?

So much wrong with this post, but I'll respond regardless.

1) What ended up happening was isolated severe weather, roughly 2 storms, that impacted a highly populated area that made headlines likely. That doesn't make it an outbreak alone. Yes we also had some additional tornadoes up in NW OK and of course the bigger show up in Kansas and Nebraska (tornado wise). Major outbreak though? Hardly...at least for us.

2) First off...OKC WAS included in the slight risk at the initial risk outlook put out at 12:55AM. You can read all about here: Storm Prediction Center May 6, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2015/day1otlk_20150506_1200.html)

Why is it hard to believe it was a Slight Risk day...even though it was actually upgraded to enhanced later in the day. We had a complicated setup that could have completely busted out yesterday. Would you be here commenting on how we all would have missed the forecast again if things evolved differently?

Situations evolve and so do forecasts. Early in the day it was noted that SPC was holding the tornado probabilities at 5% because they weren't sure on exact coverage. They did however note that conditions would be supportive of strong tornadoes, so they weren't missing that part at all.

As far as the I-44 being a storm magnet. Why is the intertropical convergence zone one for hurricanes in the Atlantic? More than likely it is just a matter of being in the geographically favored area. Nothing more. Unless you want to start talking indian burial grounds and stuff.

Did downtown get flooded like on May 31st?

The City noted quite a few downtown/urban core buildings that had minor flood damage. I saw some incredible photos of basements and streets filled w/ running water. And our basement had more water intrusion (nothing bad) than we had on May 31st, 2013. My anecdotal answer would be yes, it did, if not worse.

https://scontent-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpt1/v/t1.0-9/11193377_930748273612767_5807616201278309247_n.jpg ?oh=09e125030f5ba60966eec66fb2d5119a&oe=55D8293F

So much wrong with this post, but I'll respond regardless.

1) What ended up happening was isolated severe weather, roughly 2 storms, that impacted a highly populated area that made headlines likely. That doesn't make it an outbreak alone. Yes we also had some additional tornadoes up in NW OK and of course the bigger show up in Kansas and Nebraska (tornado wise). Major outbreak though? Hardly...at least for us.

2) First off...OKC WAS included in the slight risk at the initial risk outlook put out at 12:55AM. You can read all about here: Storm Prediction Center May 6, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2015/day1otlk_20150506_1200.html)

Why is it hard to believe it was a Slight Risk day...even though it was actually upgraded to enhanced later in the day. We had a complicated setup that could have completely busted out yesterday. Would you be here commenting on how we all would have missed the forecast again if things evolved differently?

Situations evolve and so do forecasts. Early in the day it was noted that SPC was holding the tornado probabilities at 5% because they weren't sure on exact coverage. They did however note that conditions would be supportive of strong tornadoes, so they weren't missing that part at all.

As far as the I-44 being a storm magnet. Why is the intertropical convergence zone one for hurricanes in the Atlantic? More than likely it is just a matter of being in the geographically favored area. Nothing more. Unless you want to start talking indian burial grounds and stuff.

Woah, you actually replied to that?!? I thought, "Nah, Venture will just let that pass. No need to comment on something that absurd." I think you actually enjoy it. :wink:

Why wasn't the tiger outbreak in Tuttle included in SPC's forecast for the day???? :D

https://scontent-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpt1/v/t1.0-9/11193377_930748273612767_5807616201278309247_n.jpg ?oh=09e125030f5ba60966eec66fb2d5119a&oe=55D8293F

The tracks of those tornadoes are unreal. Wobbling all over the place.

What is the logic behind randomly turning the tornado sirens on and off in the northernmost part of the county when the actual threat of a tornado is in the southernmost part of the county (and tracking away from the unaffected area)? Is it to "save lives"? Or is it to encourage "the boy who cried wolf" syndrome? (excuse me: "the boy who cried tiger" syndrome). Somehow, on an intuitive level, it doesn't make sense to alarm people without good reason.

Woah, you actually replied to that?!? I thought, "Nah, Venture will just let that pass. No need to comment on something that absurd." I think you actually enjoy it. :wink:

Why wasn't the tiger outbreak in Tuttle included in SPC's forecast for the day???? :D

I know I know...but I figured - get it out of my system now before Saturday and the total meltdown takes place. :)


What is the logic behind randomly turning the tornado sirens on and off in the northernmost part of the county when the actual threat of a tornado is in the southernmost part of the county (and tracking away from the unaffected area)? Is it to "save lives"? Or is it to encourage "the boy who cried wolf" syndrome? (excuse me: "the boy who cried tiger" syndrome). Somehow, on an intuitive level, it doesn't make sense to alarm people without good reason.

Might not be a bad idea for us to get another thread going on the OKC / OK County siren policy to give it some attention.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0532.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071520Z - 071715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM A PORTION OF THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX. THOUGH A WW IS POSSIBLE...THREAT FROM THESE
INITIAL STORMS MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...A WHICH TIME A WW MIGHT BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS NRN TX INTO NWRN TX. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THE NEAR
SFC LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER CNTRL TX AND
MID 60S OVER WRN TX GENERALLY SOUTH OF LUBBOCK. STORMS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER WRN TX APPEAR TO BE IN RESPONSE TO ZONE OF
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY. THESE STORMS APPEAR POORLY ORGANIZED AND ELEVATED ABOVE A
STABLE SFC LAYER...BUT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO ACQUIRE MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH SOME OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY.

WITH TIME THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN...AND RICHER MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK WHICH /IN ADDITION TO DIABATIC
HEATING/ WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE SRN MOST STORMS OVER WRN TX MIGHT PERSIST AND INTENSIFY LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERS.
STORMS THAT PERSIST AND REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/07/2015

Yeah, we are literally in the far SW corner of Oklahoma County and hear sirens from Cleveland, McClain, Canadian, Oklahoma and I think Grady. It was nonstop, last night.

People in Oklahoma City and the state of Oklahoma can't run anything right. How long will it be until the residents start ignoring the sirens?I was already doing that last night, since the closest action to me was at the diagonally oppoksite corner of the county.

Someone should tell TPTB about the boy who cried "Wolf!" too many times...

Yesterday morning, the meteorologists were predicting isolated severe weather centered on western Oklahoma. What ended up happening was a major outbreak centered on OKC. It's hard to believe it was a slight risk day and OKC wasn't even included in that risk yesterday morning. I am extremely nervous about Saturday.Do you know what it is about the H.E. Bailey Turnpike. Why do severe outbreaks so many times happen with supercells going up in SW OK, going up the turnpike into the OKC area impacting Moore?

Well, Moderate risks and High risks forecast can end up busting so I think its silly you assume the worst will happen just because they couldn't predict two storms occurring over one geographic spot last night. There could be too many storms Saturday that fight each for energy, morning/early afternoon storms, etc.

Saturday will get here soon enough. We need to pay attention to today and tomorrow first. (There is a hint of a moderate risk upgrade for tomorrow by the SPC).

Looks like generic linear storms and rain evolving out of NW TX. Main threat will be flooding.


EDIT:

southern cluster looks to be isolating more and is rotating slightly. Altus area will need to be aware.

Might not be a bad idea for us to get another thread going on the OKC / OK County siren policy to give it some attention.
Great idea! As it happens I've been a weather buff longer than most of the crew here have been alive, and a distant cousin of mine (Tom Kyle, who passed away just this past year) issued the first ever broadcast Tornado warning back when he headed the Weather Bureau office at the old Will Rogers Field site. I'll definitely head for cover when the threat gets within a mile of me (and track what's happening both here, and via smartphone apps to see real-time radar), but last night was ridiculous.

And I'm more than a bit concerned about Saturday, but yesterday certainly shows how little we actually know about the factors that control the storms. Too much reliance on the models is, I think, even worse than too little!

Also I know we've bashed them plenty in the last few weeks but I'd like to applaud the NWS yesterday. They seemed very very on point with their warnings and general info. All the warnings were coming out at a rapid pace in a timely manner and gave people plenty of time to seek shelter if the need warranted it.

Wait, it's already started out in the TX panhandle? Geez. It's barely lunchtime!

Is there any good news for Saturday? As in, things that would be against a major outbreak? Weaker shear, etc.

If convection and clouds from Friday evening linger into Saturday, it could hamper things. But like we saw yesterday, sometimes it doesn't matter and you get supercells in 68F rain-cooled air.

Also I know we've bashed them plenty in the last few weeks but I'd like to applaud the NWS yesterday. They seemed very very on point with their warnings and general info. All the warnings were coming out at a rapid pace in a timely manner and gave people plenty of time to seek shelter if the need warranted it.

Very good point!

That area around Valley Brook last night looked like a damn hurricane on radar, that was crazy.

That area around Valley Brook last night looked like a damn hurricane on radar, that was crazy.

The strippers reportedly have hail damage. So, business as usual for Valley Brook.

According to a News Ogle, K4, Gov. Fallin is reminding us to be "Weather Aware"

Dang. I wish I'da already considered that.

(side--not iso--bar): I recently encountered a "person of color" with a Florida tag on the car at the local Love's gas pumps. It was Saturday, exactly at Noon. The Sirens went off on a nearly cloudless day. He was so flustered--and looking around at the sky--that he had to ask me, "Wha'???!!!" All I could say was: "It's Oklahoma. And it's OK. Saturday, at noon they sound the sirens." He breathed a sigh of relief and said, 'Thanks . . . I couldn't make any sense out of all that." I resisted the urge to say, "It could have been worse . . . It might have been The Russians carrying out a Nuclear Strike." I figured that a noob to OK, from FLA, already had to deal with hurricanes and 'gators so I didn't want to increase his stress level.

This should probably be on a different thread regarding Storm Sirens . . .
Yet the specific location is difficult to Pintrest.

SPC just added a huge moderate risk area from Western to west central Oklahoma for tomorrow. Enhanced area for most of the other areas.

SPC AC 071726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
TX...WESTERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SW TX TO IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSLATES INTO THE
4-CORNERS REGION LATE. DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH SUBSTANTIAL FLOW
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD A PRONOUNCED DRY LINE DURING PEAK HEATING.
STRONG SHEAR AND FAVORABLE HIGH-LEVEL VENTING SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WRN OK.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AFTER 18Z...TRANSLATING INTO WRN OK
BY 09/00Z. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG DRY LINE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...SPREADING/DEVELOPING EWD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...ABSENT DAY1 CONVECTIVE DISRUPTION...SHOULD EASILY ADVANCE
NWD TOWARD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD ORIENT ITSELF IN AN E-W
FASHION ACROSS SRN KS/SERN CO. IF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN TO
THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST NAM...ROBUST SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FAVORABLY SHEARED BOUNDARY THAT
COULD ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. EVEN
SO...DISCRETE WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF NWRN TX...NWD TO THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT PROFILES CHARACTERISTIC OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

SCT SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FOCUSED LLJ AIDS INFLOW. DURING THE
EVENING...SEVERE CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE E-W SYNOPTIC FRONT
WHERE LLJ IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY.

Altus storm is probably going to tornado soon. Looks like severe threat will likely remain along Red River corridor.

SPC just added a huge moderate risk area from Western to west central Oklahoma for tomorrow. Enhanced area for most of the other areas.

SPC AC 071726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
TX...WESTERN OK AND SOUTHERN KS...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SW TX TO IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER LOW TRANSLATES INTO THE
4-CORNERS REGION LATE. DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH SUBSTANTIAL FLOW
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD A PRONOUNCED DRY LINE DURING PEAK HEATING.
STRONG SHEAR AND FAVORABLE HIGH-LEVEL VENTING SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WRN OK.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AFTER 18Z...TRANSLATING INTO WRN OK
BY 09/00Z. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG DRY LINE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...SPREADING/DEVELOPING EWD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...ABSENT DAY1 CONVECTIVE DISRUPTION...SHOULD EASILY ADVANCE
NWD TOWARD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD ORIENT ITSELF IN AN E-W
FASHION ACROSS SRN KS/SERN CO. IF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN TO
THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST NAM...ROBUST SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FAVORABLY SHEARED BOUNDARY THAT
COULD ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. EVEN
SO...DISCRETE WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF NWRN TX...NWD TO THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST NAM SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT PROFILES CHARACTERISTIC OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

SCT SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FOCUSED LLJ AIDS INFLOW. DURING THE
EVENING...SEVERE CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE E-W SYNOPTIC FRONT
WHERE LLJ IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY.

These weather threads are fascinating and are one of the few subjects I've encountered where what I'm reading might as well be in Medieval Gaelic.

Who are these bulletins intended for? Weather, aviation and emergency management types?

It makes me (sort of) want to dive in and learn more about the technical aspects of weather but it's a pretty intimidating subject!

Just getting away from all caps would be a huge improvement.

It makes me (sort of) want to dive in and learn more about the technical aspects of weather but it's a pretty intimidating subject!
It's not all that difficult, especially if you hang out here and follow some of the discussions. The Weather Bureau bulletins are filled with abbreviations that make them look much more arcane than they actually are once you figure out that WRN OK means Western Oklahoma, and GFS AND NAM" refer to two different computer forecasting programs that attempt to model the weather environment and by doing so, predict what's going to happen next.

Just think about the "texting" language that's so popular these days, eliminating keystrokes by dropping most vowels from words and leaving you to figure them out by context. That's pretty much what these official messages do, cutting down on keystrokes to get a maximum of information out in minimum time. And lots of it is now simply traditional jargon left over from the days not so horribly long ago when the best rapid-communication device available was the Teletype Model 33, running at a blazing 110-bit-per-second speed (today's Internet averages more than 3 million bits per second and "high-speed" goes up to 50 million and more).

From time to time, David posts tutorial messages to teach the rest of us how to read the more unfamiliar charts and tables, too.

EDIT: Some hints on the one you quoted: NEWD is northeastward and LLJ is, I think, Lower Level Jet (referring to the jet streams that influence weather quite heavily).

Just getting away from all caps would be a huge improvement.

It may make sense to do it in all caps if these bulletins are automatically faxed out to different agencies. I imagine the all caps is a holdout from when everyone was using old style printers.

It may make sense to do it in all caps if these bulletins are automatically faxed out to different agencies. I imagine the all caps is a holdout from when everyone was using old style printers.

That's exactly it.

Most of the abbreviations are easy enough to figure out but it seems it could easily be made more readable. When I talked about learning more I was actually thinking about the actual mechanisms by which weather works. What different terms mean and how those interact to produce whatever they produce. I'm sure a lot of it is inexact but I'm guessing there are some basics that are very well understood. I aced an earth science class that included a quarter on meteorology but that was back in 1984!

Last night, driving home from dinner and standing the front yard, facing the North, was AWESOME! I love extreme weather and get a bit of an adrenaline dump from it, along with it being something of a "back to earth" or even spiritual/peaceful experience. I guess I was born in the perfect place for that!

It's not all that difficult, especially if you hang out here and follow some of the discussions. The Weather Bureau bulletins are filled with abbreviations that make them look much more arcane than they actually are once you figure out that WRN OK means Western Oklahoma, and GFS AND NAM" refer to two different computer forecasting programs that attempt to model the weather environment and by doing so, predict what's going to happen next.

Just think about the "texting" language that's so popular these days, eliminating keystrokes by dropping most vowels from words and leaving you to figure them out by context. That's pretty much what these official messages do, cutting down on keystrokes to get a maximum of information out in minimum time. And lots of it is now simply traditional jargon left over from the days not so horribly long ago when the best rapid-communication device available was the Teletype Model 33, running at a blazing 110-bit-per-second speed (today's Internet averages more than 3 million bits per second and "high-speed" goes up to 50 million and more).

From time to time, David posts tutorial messages to teach the rest of us how to read the more unfamiliar charts and tables, too.

EDIT: Some hints on the one you quoted: NEWD is northeastward and LLJ is, I think, Lower Level Jet (referring to the jet streams that influence weather quite heavily).

You are absolutely spot-on there, Jim :)

It's a really bizarre way that being a software developer has helped me translate these forecasts in precisely the manner you describe. You take these bizarre contractions and abbreviations and almost say them, almost read them, mix in the context, and you can figure out what a lot of them mean. It's an entirely normal part of software development to create program code that consists of ways to store values in what are called "variables," and very often those variable names in code are contractions of what they represent. So, learning how those variable names get formed in the first place helped me greatly in reverse, taking the name and working backwards. It helped me to no end deciphering these forecasts back in the day when I took aeronautics back in HS and we had to learn how to read pilot weather briefings for the FAA exam. As a snarky bit of self aggrandizement, I annoyed the fire out of most of the guys in the class because I could just about read those weather briefings like plain text :) bwahahahaha.... Ah, the minor triumphs of high school LOL

SoonerDave (Not the "Dave" Jim was referencing in this post)

So what's the word on what appears to be a wall of water headed our way?

Right now, nothing too serious. Will have to watch as these storms move into the more unstable environment across C OK, so far the cell east of Hobart is only showing weak signs of rotation. Watching closely.

so nothing serious, tornado wise. i'm more interested in rain forecast

Right now, nothing too serious. Will have to watch as these storms move into the more unstable environment across C OK, so far the cell east of Hobart is only showing weak signs of rotation. Watching closely.

What's the rainfall like? Flooding looks like a major concern considering how slowly the system is moving.

NWS Norman ✔ @NWSNorman (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman)

NEW - OKC tornado that hit area around I-35/SE 44th rated at least EF2. Rating is still preliminary pending further analysis.

Flooding is going to be big threat. Especially if storms redevelop after this main wave. Right now models are hinting at the possibility of generic rain/storms developing and training over I-40 corridor into tonight. We'll see though.

Timeline for them to hit OKC?

Timeline for them to hit OKC?

Line appears to be just west of Hwy 81 (3PM) and moving at 25mph. Depending on where you are 330-4?

When I talked about learning more I was actually thinking about the actual mechanisms by which weather works. What different terms mean and how those interact to produce whatever they produce.When Chan Guffey, city editor of The Oklahoman, dumped the Weather Beat onto my shoulders some 60 years ago, on my first trip out to the Weather Bureau office on the second floor of a hangar at the old Will Rogers Field I borrowed a couple of textbooks from the chief -- who, we discovered many years later, was a not-too-distant cousin of mine -- and from those, picked up the rudiments of meteorology as known at that time. It was nowhere near what we all take for granted today. The whole theory of "fronts" was only about a dozen years old!

One of those textbooks said, in total seriousness, that the most accurate way to forecast tomorrow's weather was to look up what had happened on the same day a year earlier. The general weather patterns were sufficiently cyclical that this method had a "better than even" chance of being accurate!

That same textbook went on to say that forecasters should remain in one area for most of their careers, since they would soon learn to "sense" the patterns for that area and their predictions would become more accurate.

And it was not until 1948 that anyone was able to predict, with any accuracy at all, the likelihood of a tornado. Two weather officers at Tinker had become fascinated by the storms, and found a pattern of temperature and humidity that seemed to be common to most of them. One spring day in 1948 they realized that that exact pattern was present, and convinced the commanding general to put the base on alert. That minimized the damage when the storm swept the flight line late in the afternoon.

Such forecasts quickly became the norm for the military, but civilian services still did not issue them for fear of panicking the populace. Finally, Tom Kyle decided that possible panic was acceptable if a warning could save lives, especially after the Woodward and Blackwell disasters, and issued a warning next time conditions warranted. Sure enough, the storm hit, and his warning was credited with drastically reducing the toll. Warnings became standard procedure.

Tom also showed me the notorious "hook echo" on their radar, but warned me NOT to publicize its existence -- again, for fear of panic. The hook had been discovered in the South Pacific during the late months of WW2 and was known to radar techs all over, but was not then --nor is it today--proof of a twister on the ground. It only shows you that dangerous circulation exists.

So don't be too leery of learning more about weather and its vagaries. Even the top pros are still learning a lot! And the more they learn, the more they discover we don't know.

Fascinating, Jim.

Yesterday morning, the meteorologists were predicting isolated severe weather centered on western Oklahoma. What ended up happening was a major outbreak centered on OKC. It's hard to believe it was a slight risk day and OKC wasn't even included in that risk yesterday morning. I am extremely nervous about Saturday.

Do you know what it is about the H.E. Bailey Turnpike. Why do severe outbreaks so many times happen with supercells going up in SW OK, going up the turnpike into the OKC area impacting Moore?


Tornadoes don't like the price of traveling on that toll way, so they are being vindictive..........

The Local Stations are hyping up Friday and Saturday with a Moderate risk of Severe weather, then again we've seen nothing happen on hyped days like those.

The Local Stations are hyping up Friday and Saturday with a Moderate risk of Severe weather, then again we've seen nothing happen on hyped days like those.
You mean local stations like the National Weather Service?

http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=10779&stc=1http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=10780&stc=1

When Chan Guffey, city editor of The Oklahoman, dumped the Weather Beat onto my shoulders some 60 years ago, on my first trip out to the Weather Bureau office on the second floor of a hangar at the old Will Rogers Field I borrowed a couple of textbooks from the chief -- who, we discovered many years later, was a not-too-distant cousin of mine -- and from those, picked up the rudiments of meteorology as known at that time. It was nowhere near what we all take for granted today. The whole theory of "fronts" was only about a dozen years old!

One of those textbooks said, in total seriousness, that the most accurate way to forecast tomorrow's weather was to look up what had happened on the same day a year earlier. The general weather patterns were sufficiently cyclical that this method had a "better than even" chance of being accurate!

That same textbook went on to say that forecasters should remain in one area for most of their careers, since they would soon learn to "sense" the patterns for that area and their predictions would become more accurate.

And it was not until 1948 that anyone was able to predict, with any accuracy at all, the likelihood of a tornado. Two weather officers at Tinker had become fascinated by the storms, and found a pattern of temperature and humidity that seemed to be common to most of them. One spring day in 1948 they realized that that exact pattern was present, and convinced the commanding general to put the base on alert. That minimized the damage when the storm swept the flight line late in the afternoon.

Such forecasts quickly became the norm for the military, but civilian services still did not issue them for fear of panicking the populace. Finally, Tom Kyle decided that possible panic was acceptable if a warning could save lives, especially after the Woodward and Blackwell disasters, and issued a warning next time conditions warranted. Sure enough, the storm hit, and his warning was credited with drastically reducing the toll. Warnings became standard procedure.

Tom also showed me the notorious "hook echo" on their radar, but warned me NOT to publicize its existence -- again, for fear of panic. The hook had been discovered in the South Pacific during the late months of WW2 and was known to radar techs all over, but was not then --nor is it today--proof of a twister on the ground. It only shows you that dangerous circulation exists.

So don't be too leery of learning more about weather and its vagaries. Even the top pros are still learning a lot! And the more they learn, the more they discover we don't know.


Jim, I swear we must be cousins. First I find we have a common interest in SW dev, writing, and then weather. The job you had studying weather and writing a column about it would have been awesome. I'd love to know if they need any developers with the NWS down in Norman. As a kid who grew up in Oklahoma and was terrified of Spring weather, I overcame it by learning about it, and that "self-education" is probably why I have so little patience for those in the TV weather trade that feed on fear and hype. Heck, if someone came up with a job combining computers, weather, and writing, I'd be all over it!! :)

The Local Stations are hyping up Friday and Saturday with a Moderate risk of Severe weather, then again we've seen nothing happen on hyped days like those.

Its not hype just reporting that there is a moderate risk. I'm just surprised they haven't starting issuing their own high risk for Saturday yet...which would be hype.

Too be fair, NWS Norman went ahead and filled in the gaps between the two enhanced areas yesterday while the official SPC outlook did not, but I imagine it would have been confusing to the public if they talked about a south enhance risk and a north enhance risk.

I'm just surprised they haven't starting issuing their own high risk for Saturday yet...which would be hype.
Jed, on Channel 9, did have a graphic up about 8 a.m. showing maximum risk for Saturday, but he didn't emphasize it a lot and I've not heard any more about it as the day has progressed...