okatty
05-06-2015, 03:06 PM
Good video on KFOR. those are some serious looking clouds and funnels.
View Full Version : General Weather Discussion - May 2015 okatty 05-06-2015, 03:06 PM Good video on KFOR. those are some serious looking clouds and funnels. venture 05-06-2015, 03:06 PM The national weather service has extended tornado watch 133 to include the following areas until 9 pm cdt this evening in oklahoma this watch includes 4 counties in central oklahoma cleveland logan mcclain oklahoma venture 05-06-2015, 03:06 PM Tornadao watch for OKC metro Part of it already was included. :-P Tydude 05-06-2015, 03:07 PM The national weather service has extended tornado watch 133 to include the following areas until 9 pm cdt this evening in oklahoma this watch includes 4 counties in central oklahoma cleveland logan mcclain oklahoma this includes the cities of...guthrie...moore...norman... Oklahoma city and purcell. Tydude 05-06-2015, 03:11 PM The national weather service in norman has issued a * tornado warning for... Southeastern caddo county in southwestern oklahoma... West central grady county in central oklahoma... * until 345 pm cdt * at 310 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 5 miles northwest of cement...moving northeast at 25 mph. Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail. Source...radar indicated rotation. Impact...flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs...windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * locations impacted include... Chickasha...anadarko...verden...norge...lake chickasha and laverty. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Take cover now! Move to a storm shelter... Safe room or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home...a vehicle or outdoors...move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. venture 05-06-2015, 03:13 PM This is EXTREMELY impressive. BE PREPARED NOW. http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-05/06-005.png Easy180 05-06-2015, 03:23 PM At a dr appt in Norman. Can you tell me the path and ETA? venture 05-06-2015, 03:30 PM CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 133 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0133.html)... VALID 062027Z - 062230Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 133 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FOR WATCH 0133. DISCUSSION...A WEAKLY-TORNADIC SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER SOUTHEAST CADDO COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A CONFLUENCE LINE ACROSS WESTERN OK. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA...BUT STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN MAF AND ABI WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE WATCH SOON. KTLX VWPS AND 19Z OUN SOUNDING INDICATE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATCH REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ENHANCED 900-700 MB FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG EXITING WAVE TO THE NORTH WHICH HAS ENLARGED THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH AND PRODUCED OVER 200 M2/S2 OF 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY OVER THE WATCH AREA. RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE 700-400 MB LAYER MAY BE PREVENTING A STRONGER ORGANIZATION TO THE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY. HOWEVER...THE KTLX VWP INDICATES THE LOW-PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUPERCELL OVER WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY BE LOCALLY-ENHANCING THE SREH THROUGH BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...IN ADDITION TO A LARGER-SCALE BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ROTATION. ADDITIONALLY...THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGHER MLCAPE OVER 1500-3000 J/KG NOW EXTENDS TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING. THEREFORE THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL THIS STORM AS IT APPROACHED THE OKC METRO AREA. venture 05-06-2015, 03:44 PM The national weather service in norman has issued a * tornado warning for... Central grady county in central oklahoma... * until 415 pm cdt * at 343 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 4 miles northwest of norge...moving east at 25 mph. Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail. venture 05-06-2015, 04:06 PM The national weather service in norman has issued a * tornado warning for... Eastern major county in northwestern oklahoma... Southwestern grant county in northern oklahoma... Southeastern alfalfa county in northwestern oklahoma... Northwestern garfield county in northern oklahoma... * until 430 pm cdt * at 400 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near ringwood...moving north-northeast at 25 mph. Another severe thunderstorm was located near fairview that may eventually produce a torando. Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail. venture 05-06-2015, 05:04 PM NWS Norman ✔ @NWSNorman (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman) 502pm - TORNADO EMERGENCY for Newcastle and Bridge Creek! Deadly serious situation! Dustin 05-06-2015, 05:07 PM Well crap... turnpup 05-06-2015, 05:08 PM NWS Norman ✔ @NWSNorman (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman) 502pm - TORNADO EMERGENCY for Newcastle and Bridge Creek! Deadly serious situation! Bumping this up. Tydude 05-06-2015, 05:15 PM .tornado emergency for newcastle west to bridge creek and areas south of the h.e. Bailey turnpike... ...a tornado warning remains in effect until 530 pm cdt for west central mcclain and northeastern grady counties... At 502 pm cdt...a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near bridge creek...moving northeast at 10 mph. Tornado emergency for newcastle west to bridge creek and areas south of the h.e. Bailey turnpike. Take cover now. This is a particularly dangerous situation. Hazard...deadly tornado. Source...radar confirmed tornado. Impact...you are in a life threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes...businesses and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Newcastle...blanchard...tuttle and bridge creek. Precautionary/preparedness actions... To repeat...a large...extremely dangerous...and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life...take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home...a vehicle or outdoors...move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && lat...lon 3513 9782 3522 9784 3531 9764 3515 9761 time...mot...loc 2154z 224deg 9kt 3517 9778 tornado...observed tornado damage threat...catastrophic hail...1.75in kelroy55 05-06-2015, 05:17 PM Hope you all are safe. The Newcastle cell was on the news down here. venture 05-06-2015, 05:26 PM ...tornado emergency for newcastle into western moore and southwest oklahoma city... The national weather service in norman has issued a * tornado warning for... Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma... Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma... Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma... * until 600 pm cdt * at 523 pm cdt...a confirmed large and destructive tornado was observed near bridge creek...moving northeast at 20 mph. This is a tornado emergency for newcastle into western moore and southwest oklahoma city. Take cover now. This is a particularly dangerous situation. Hazard...deadly tornado. Tydude 05-06-2015, 05:26 PM KOCOdamonlane: TORNADO EMERGENCY SW OKC AND MOORE 525PM venture 05-06-2015, 05:38 PM Large tornado in West Norman. http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-05/06-007.png Tydude 05-06-2015, 05:43 PM The national weather service in norman has issued a * tornado warning for... Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma... Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma... * until 600 pm cdt * at 529 pm cdt...a confirmed tornado was located near newcastle... Moving northeast at 10 mph. Hazard...damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. Source...weather spotters confirmed tornado. Impact...flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs...windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * locations impacted include... Western norman...moore and newcastle. venture 05-06-2015, 05:58 PM The national weather service in norman has issued a * tornado warning for... North central cleveland county in central oklahoma... * until 630 pm cdt * at 556 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over western norman...moving northeast at 15 mph. Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail. Source...radar indicated rotation. venture 05-06-2015, 06:18 PM The national weather service in norman has issued a * tornado warning for... South central oklahoma county in central oklahoma... North central cleveland county in central oklahoma... * until 645 pm cdt * at 617 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near moore...moving northeast at 15 mph. Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail. Source...radar indicated rotation. venture 05-06-2015, 06:48 PM Storm near Verden producing....storm near Bridge Creek (another) close to producing or did have a brief touch down...another in eastern Oklahoma/Cleveland county. bchris02 05-06-2015, 06:49 PM Will things quiet down after sunset? venture 05-06-2015, 06:50 PM Will things quiet down after sunset? No. venture 05-06-2015, 07:58 PM The national weather service in norman has issued a * tornado warning for... Southwestern oklahoma county in central oklahoma... * until 830 pm cdt * at 756 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over southwestern oklahoma city...moving north at 10 mph. Hazard...tornado and ping pong ball size hail. Source...radar indicated rotation. venture 05-06-2015, 07:59 PM http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-05/06-008.png venture 05-06-2015, 08:11 PM http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0527.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0808 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL OK/WRN N TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 133 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0133.html)... VALID 070108Z - 070215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 133 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WW 133 -- WHERE ALL-HAZARD SEVERE RISK PERSISTS. DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...IN AT LEAST THREE CLUSTERS -- ONE OVER NRN OK...ONE OVER CENTRAL OK...AND A THIRD OVER SWRN OK/WRN N TX. STORM COVERAGE HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED -- PARTICULARLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE RISK -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- MAY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN A BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR CLUSTERING/MESSIER STORM MODE WITH TIME -- AND AN INCREASE IN RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY TO PERSIST BEYOND 02Z /THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION FOR WW 133/ SUGGESTS THAT A NEW WW FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THIS AREA WILL BE NEEDED. ..GOSS.. 05/07/2015 catch22 05-06-2015, 08:13 PM Saw a funnel directly overhead the airport about 10 mins ago. venture 05-06-2015, 08:17 PM Baseball hail moving towards Mustang. venture 05-06-2015, 08:26 PM The national weather service in norman has issued a * tornado warning for... South central oklahoma county in central oklahoma... North central cleveland county in central oklahoma... * until 900 pm cdt * at 825 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over southern oklahoma city...moving east at 20 mph. Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail. venture 05-06-2015, 08:29 PM The national weather service in norman has issued a * tornado warning for... Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma... Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma... * until 900 pm cdt * at 827 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near newcastle...moving east at 25 mph. Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail. Source...radar indicated rotation. bchris02 05-06-2015, 08:35 PM This seems like basically a repeat of May 31st. Kudos to the TV meteorologists for telling people to stay in their safe spots rather than getting out on the roads. venture 05-06-2015, 08:52 PM http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0137_radar.gif okatty 05-06-2015, 09:00 PM Have the storm sirens ever gone off this much in one day/night? wow Bunty 05-06-2015, 09:09 PM For probably the first time ever a Flash Flood Emergency has been issued for Oklahoma City. This warning covers Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, McClain, and Oklahoma counties until 9 AM. Map below gives an idea how extra heavy the rain has been for the past two days just to the southwest of OKC. https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png turnpup 05-06-2015, 09:12 PM Crap, it's been hell getting the little one to bed. We finally got her to agree to lie down if we put earbuds and Pandora on her. This is rough for the kids. coov23 05-06-2015, 09:26 PM Is the weather tomorrow going to be much like today? venture 05-06-2015, 09:29 PM The national weather service in norman has issued a * tornado warning for... Southeastern oklahoma county in central oklahoma... Northeastern cleveland county in central oklahoma... * until 1000 pm cdt * at 928 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over southeastern oklahoma city...moving northeast at 20 mph. Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail. venture 05-06-2015, 09:31 PM Is the weather tomorrow going to be much like today? It's going to be busy through Sunday. One thing to point out...today probably exceeded what most expected due to the conditional elements we had today. A lot could have gone wrong and we would be seeing posts about another "bust" and forecasts screwing it up. Well...this is why we always say there is a chance. Though no one could have predicted this much water and and total number of tornadoes. Bunty 05-06-2015, 09:39 PM Is the weather tomorrow going to be much like today? A 60% chance for thunderstorms in OKC for Thursday night. okatty 05-06-2015, 09:40 PM KFOR just reported that wild animals are loose in the Tuttle area from a wildlife park. Have heard it ALL now. d-usa 05-06-2015, 09:44 PM I wonder if today may make a case for sectioning off the storm sirens in Oklahoma City. I hope that nobody on the north side gets siren fatigue and gets hit by anything later tonight... rezman 05-06-2015, 09:54 PM 9:50 pm and the severe threat is over for Oklahoma County, and the sirens just went off again in northern Okla county.... What the hell?!! They've been going off all evening at about 10 - 15 minute intervals and nothing is going on up here....Enough already!. venture 05-06-2015, 10:16 PM A 60% chance for thunderstorms in OKC for Thursday night. Doesn't really answer what he was asking for. :) I wonder if today may make a case for sectioning off the storm sirens in Oklahoma City. I hope that nobody on the north side gets siren fatigue and gets hit by anything later tonight... Norman did that when they replaced all the sirens a few years back. OKC definitely should considering how large it is. Urban Pioneer 05-06-2015, 10:28 PM They are actually capable of being sounded individually. It is a far more sophisticated system in capability in contrast to how it is used. Our company actually designed and installed a system for OUHSC that annunciates a recording "A tornado is in the area." "A tornado is not in the area." The excuse that has been given is that OKC sounds it sirens anytime a warning encroaches anywhere in Oklahoma County as Emergency Management policy assumes that someone may commute into the storm. It's a liability issue created policy. venture 05-06-2015, 11:23 PM The national weather service in norman has issued a * tornado warning for... Central seminole county in east central oklahoma... * until 1145 pm cdt * at 1120 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 3 miles southwest of seminole...moving east at 15 mph. Hazard...tornado and tennis ball size hail. Source...radar indicated rotation. venture 05-07-2015, 01:59 AM SPC Outlooks... Day 1 - SLIGHT RISK for Western and South Central OK, MARGINAL for everyone else. Day 2 - ENHANCED RISK for Central into Southwest OK, SLIGHT RISK for all but extreme Southeast OK - MARGINAL for them. UnclePete 05-07-2015, 04:49 AM People in Oklahoma City and the state of Oklahoma can't run anything right. How long will it be until the residents start ignoring the sirens? bandnerd 05-07-2015, 06:32 AM Venture, what causes storms to stall out like that and just sit over an area? It happened two years ago with the El Reno tornado, too. We had flooding and so did the Paseo and other parts of OKC, much like last night. Both of those storms took hours to move on. Thanks! SoonerDave 05-07-2015, 06:45 AM They are actually capable of being sounded individually. It is a far more sophisticated system in capability in contrast to how it is used. Our company actually designed and installed a system for OUHSC that annunciates a recording "A tornado is in the area." "A tornado is not in the area." The excuse that has been given is that OKC sounds it sirens anytime a warning encroaches anywhere in Oklahoma County as Emergency Management policy assumes that someone may commute into the storm. It's a liability issue created policy. That may be the public story, but I was told by someone with credentials I absolutely trust that, as you note, the system is absolutely addressable on an individual basis, but the main control system has, in effect, big "panic button" that fires all the sirens a once. I was told it is much easier to hit that, and then selectively turn off the ones not affected, than to do the reverse. It's a matter of convenience in a critical situation. I just don't know if I buy 100% into the liability issue considering the notion of sovereign immunity.. jn1780 05-07-2015, 07:21 AM Doesn't seem like it would be hard to divide the sirens in half and have north side sirens and Southside sirens. Jesseda 05-07-2015, 07:58 AM what is the official rain total? I am curious about how much Moore got. Anonymous. 05-07-2015, 08:08 AM OKC Slight risk today. Enhanced risk tomorrow. Moderate risk Saturday. Friday and Saturday could be big time. Saturday will likely be the first High Risk of the season (somewhere). Anonymous. 05-07-2015, 08:14 AM You can gauge how much rain fell with this. This does include the overnight rain we got before the storms: http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png bchris, this was not one storm. This was identical to two years ago when storms keep riding up the same boundaries. Each passing storm lays down a type of boundary and the next storm kind of hugs and manipulates the boundary as it moves along. With supercells, they are so strong and self-sustained, that they actually move the boundary (usually laid down just south of passing storm) back to the north slightly. The result is a chain or linking of supercells riding along over the same areas. venture 05-07-2015, 08:49 AM Just to reinforce what Anon has posted...Saturday is the big deal. We have a Day 3 Moderate Risk and these almost always translate to a High Risk day. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif?1431006355722 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM NORTH TX TO KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE ENH RISK AREA FROM TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO WRN MO AND WEST TO A SMALL PART OF ERN CO... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...AND TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. ...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A POTENT AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES AND SPREADS HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT AND STRONG SHEAR ACROSS A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN UNKNOWN DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT AND STORM EVOLUTION...GENERAL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER TROUGH AND JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS...AND CLIMATOLOGY...ALL SUPPORT A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF NUMEROUS INTENSE STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND A FEW STRONG/LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THIS SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD AMIDST A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WHERE SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 70F SHOULD RESIDE AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO W TX. 50-60 KTS OF SWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL PIVOT AROUND MID/UPPER LOW AND ACROSS OK/KS AS A SFC LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE STRONG SWLY 500MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH SRH SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL STRONG TORNADOES AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIAL DISCRETE CONVECTION SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SEVERE WIND...HAIL...AND FLOODING THREATS CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT EAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH INTO TX. ..CARBIN.. 05/07/2015 Anonymous. 05-07-2015, 08:52 AM Storms developing now in TX PH. As our atmosphere here in C and W OK continues to destabilize with the sun being out, we could see a couple storms become rowdy by this afternoon. NAM sort of brings the storms up as a cluster without much individual organization, but anything that tries to get isolated could become a pretty good hailer or more. Mike_M 05-07-2015, 08:52 AM Agreed on the siren fatigue. I was downtown doing an event with some non-locals and they kept freaking out every time they heard the sirens. I had to pull out the weather map on my phone every time and explain that we weren't in danger. venture 05-07-2015, 08:54 AM Slight Risk Expanded East http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1431006790072 ...OK/TX THROUGH TONIGHT... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS N CENTRAL/NW TX THIS MORNING. THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE COLD POOL THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO MODIFY AND RETREAT NWD LATER TODAY ACROSS NW TX/SW OK/SE TX PANHANDLE. THE PROBABLE SCENARIO FOR TODAY IS TO SEE THE BOUNDARY RETREAT AND SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORM BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE W...WITH THE STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S IMMEDIATELY S OF THE OUTFLOW...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A RE-ESTABLISHED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PER 12Z MAF SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY WILL AGAIN FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BY THIS EVENING ACROSS N/NW TX AND SW OK WITH THE BELT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY RESIDUAL BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN OK THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. Anonymous. 05-07-2015, 08:57 AM Not to alarm anyone, but some of the short-range models are painting another 3-6 inches of rain over much of C OK through tonight with the storms that will be evolving out of NW TX and into SW and W OK. venture 05-07-2015, 09:01 AM HRRR going super widespread today with convection, storms could be into the Metro by 4PM, but should...hopefully, be out of here by 9 to 10PM. Greatest tornado threat should be over Southwest and South Central OK...but just keep an eye out. |