View Full Version : General Weather Discussion - May 2015



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okatty
05-06-2015, 03:06 PM
Good video on KFOR. those are some serious looking clouds and funnels.

venture
05-06-2015, 03:06 PM
The national weather service has extended tornado watch 133 to
include the following areas until 9 pm cdt this evening

in oklahoma this watch includes 4 counties

in central oklahoma

cleveland logan mcclain
oklahoma

venture
05-06-2015, 03:06 PM
Tornadao watch for OKC metro

Part of it already was included. :-P

Tydude
05-06-2015, 03:07 PM
The national weather service has extended tornado watch 133 to
include the following areas until 9 pm cdt this evening

in oklahoma this watch includes 4 counties

in central oklahoma

cleveland logan mcclain
oklahoma

this includes the cities of...guthrie...moore...norman...
Oklahoma city and purcell.

Tydude
05-06-2015, 03:11 PM
The national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Southeastern caddo county in southwestern oklahoma...
West central grady county in central oklahoma...

* until 345 pm cdt

* at 310 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located 5 miles northwest of cement...moving northeast
at 25 mph.

Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.

Source...radar indicated rotation.

Impact...flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs...windows and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* locations impacted include...
Chickasha...anadarko...verden...norge...lake chickasha and laverty.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now! Move to a storm shelter... Safe room or an interior
room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a
mobile home...a vehicle or outdoors...move to the closest substantial
shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

venture
05-06-2015, 03:13 PM
This is EXTREMELY impressive. BE PREPARED NOW.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-05/06-005.png

Easy180
05-06-2015, 03:23 PM
At a dr appt in Norman. Can you tell me the path and ETA?

venture
05-06-2015, 03:30 PM
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 133 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0133.html)...

VALID 062027Z - 062230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 133 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES FOR WATCH 0133.

DISCUSSION...A WEAKLY-TORNADIC SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE OVER SOUTHEAST CADDO COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A CONFLUENCE LINE ACROSS WESTERN OK. VISIBLE
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA...BUT STORMS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
MAF AND ABI WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE WATCH SOON.
KTLX VWPS AND 19Z OUN SOUNDING INDICATE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
WATCH REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ENHANCED 900-700 MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG EXITING WAVE TO THE NORTH WHICH HAS
ENLARGED THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH AND PRODUCED OVER 200 M2/S2 OF 0-3
KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY OVER THE WATCH AREA. RELATIVELY WEAK
WINDS IN THE 700-400 MB LAYER MAY BE PREVENTING A STRONGER
ORGANIZATION TO THE SUPERCELL CURRENTLY. HOWEVER...THE KTLX VWP
INDICATES THE LOW-PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUPERCELL OVER
WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY BE LOCALLY-ENHANCING THE SREH THROUGH
BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS...IN ADDITION TO A LARGER-SCALE
BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ROTATION. ADDITIONALLY...THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGHER MLCAPE OVER 1500-3000 J/KG NOW EXTENDS TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING. THEREFORE THE
TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL
THIS STORM AS IT APPROACHED THE OKC METRO AREA.

venture
05-06-2015, 03:44 PM
The national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
Central grady county in central oklahoma...


* until 415 pm cdt

* at 343 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located 4 miles northwest of norge...moving east at 25
mph.


Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.

venture
05-06-2015, 04:06 PM
The national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
Eastern major county in northwestern oklahoma...
Southwestern grant county in northern oklahoma...
Southeastern alfalfa county in northwestern oklahoma...
Northwestern garfield county in northern oklahoma...


* until 430 pm cdt

* at 400 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near ringwood...moving north-northeast at 25
mph. Another severe thunderstorm was located near fairview that
may eventually produce a torando.


Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.

venture
05-06-2015, 05:04 PM
NWS Norman ✔ @NWSNorman (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman)

502pm - TORNADO EMERGENCY for Newcastle and Bridge Creek! Deadly serious situation!

Dustin
05-06-2015, 05:07 PM
Well crap...

turnpup
05-06-2015, 05:08 PM
NWS Norman ✔ @NWSNorman (https://twitter.com/NWSNorman)

502pm - TORNADO EMERGENCY for Newcastle and Bridge Creek! Deadly serious situation!


Bumping this up.

Tydude
05-06-2015, 05:15 PM
.tornado emergency for newcastle west to bridge creek and areas
south of the h.e. Bailey turnpike...

...a tornado warning remains in effect until 530 pm cdt for west
central mcclain and northeastern grady counties...

At 502 pm cdt...a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
near bridge creek...moving northeast at 10 mph.

Tornado emergency for newcastle west to bridge creek and areas south
of the h.e. Bailey turnpike. Take cover now. This is a particularly
dangerous situation.

Hazard...deadly tornado.

Source...radar confirmed tornado.

Impact...you are in a life threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to
homes...businesses and vehicles is likely and complete
destruction is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newcastle...blanchard...tuttle and bridge creek.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

To repeat...a large...extremely dangerous...and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life...take cover now. Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home...a vehicle or outdoors...move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

lat...lon 3513 9782 3522 9784 3531 9764 3515 9761
time...mot...loc 2154z 224deg 9kt 3517 9778

tornado...observed
tornado damage threat...catastrophic
hail...1.75in

kelroy55
05-06-2015, 05:17 PM
Hope you all are safe. The Newcastle cell was on the news down here.

venture
05-06-2015, 05:26 PM
...tornado emergency for newcastle into western moore and
southwest oklahoma city...


The national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...


* until 600 pm cdt

* at 523 pm cdt...a confirmed large and destructive tornado was
observed near bridge creek...moving northeast at 20 mph.


This is a tornado emergency for newcastle into western moore and
southwest oklahoma city. Take cover now. This is a particularly
dangerous situation.


Hazard...deadly tornado.

Tydude
05-06-2015, 05:26 PM
KOCOdamonlane: TORNADO EMERGENCY SW OKC AND MOORE 525PM

venture
05-06-2015, 05:38 PM
Large tornado in West Norman.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-05/06-007.png

Tydude
05-06-2015, 05:43 PM
The national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...

* until 600 pm cdt

* at 529 pm cdt...a confirmed tornado was located near newcastle...
Moving northeast at 10 mph.

Hazard...damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.

Source...weather spotters confirmed tornado.

Impact...flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs...windows and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* locations impacted include...
Western norman...moore and newcastle.

venture
05-06-2015, 05:58 PM
The national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
North central cleveland county in central oklahoma...


* until 630 pm cdt

* at 556 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over western norman...moving northeast at 15
mph.


Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.


Source...radar indicated rotation.

venture
05-06-2015, 06:18 PM
The national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
South central oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
North central cleveland county in central oklahoma...


* until 645 pm cdt

* at 617 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near moore...moving northeast at 15 mph.


Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.


Source...radar indicated rotation.

venture
05-06-2015, 06:48 PM
Storm near Verden producing....storm near Bridge Creek (another) close to producing or did have a brief touch down...another in eastern Oklahoma/Cleveland county.

bchris02
05-06-2015, 06:49 PM
Will things quiet down after sunset?

venture
05-06-2015, 06:50 PM
Will things quiet down after sunset?

No.

venture
05-06-2015, 07:58 PM
The national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
Southwestern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...


* until 830 pm cdt

* at 756 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over southwestern oklahoma city...moving north
at 10 mph.


Hazard...tornado and ping pong ball size hail.


Source...radar indicated rotation.

venture
05-06-2015, 07:59 PM
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-05/06-008.png

venture
05-06-2015, 08:11 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0527.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0808 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL OK/WRN N TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 133 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0133.html)...

VALID 070108Z - 070215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 133 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
WW 133 -- WHERE ALL-HAZARD SEVERE RISK PERSISTS.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM
CENTRAL KS SWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...IN AT LEAST THREE CLUSTERS
-- ONE OVER NRN OK...ONE OVER CENTRAL OK...AND A THIRD OVER SWRN
OK/WRN N TX. STORM COVERAGE HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED -- PARTICULARLY
OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED
ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE RISK -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- MAY CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN A BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH REMAINS
SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR
CLUSTERING/MESSIER STORM MODE WITH TIME -- AND AN INCREASE IN RISK
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL LIKELY TO
PERSIST BEYOND 02Z /THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION FOR WW 133/ SUGGESTS
THAT A NEW WW FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THIS AREA WILL BE NEEDED.

..GOSS.. 05/07/2015

catch22
05-06-2015, 08:13 PM
Saw a funnel directly overhead the airport about 10 mins ago.

venture
05-06-2015, 08:17 PM
Baseball hail moving towards Mustang.

venture
05-06-2015, 08:26 PM
The national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
South central oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
North central cleveland county in central oklahoma...


* until 900 pm cdt

* at 825 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over southern oklahoma city...moving east at 20
mph.


Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.

venture
05-06-2015, 08:29 PM
The national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma...


* until 900 pm cdt

* at 827 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near newcastle...moving east at 25 mph.


Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.


Source...radar indicated rotation.

bchris02
05-06-2015, 08:35 PM
This seems like basically a repeat of May 31st. Kudos to the TV meteorologists for telling people to stay in their safe spots rather than getting out on the roads.

venture
05-06-2015, 08:52 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0137_radar.gif

okatty
05-06-2015, 09:00 PM
Have the storm sirens ever gone off this much in one day/night? wow

Bunty
05-06-2015, 09:09 PM
For probably the first time ever a Flash Flood Emergency has been issued for Oklahoma City. This warning covers Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, McClain, and Oklahoma counties until 9 AM. Map below gives an idea how extra heavy the rain has been for the past two days just to the southwest of OKC.

https://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png

turnpup
05-06-2015, 09:12 PM
Crap, it's been hell getting the little one to bed. We finally got her to agree to lie down if we put earbuds and Pandora on her. This is rough for the kids.

coov23
05-06-2015, 09:26 PM
Is the weather tomorrow going to be much like today?

venture
05-06-2015, 09:29 PM
The national weather service in norman has issued a

* tornado warning for...
Southeastern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern cleveland county in central oklahoma...

* until 1000 pm cdt

* at 928 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over southeastern oklahoma city...moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.

venture
05-06-2015, 09:31 PM
Is the weather tomorrow going to be much like today?

It's going to be busy through Sunday. One thing to point out...today probably exceeded what most expected due to the conditional elements we had today. A lot could have gone wrong and we would be seeing posts about another "bust" and forecasts screwing it up. Well...this is why we always say there is a chance. Though no one could have predicted this much water and and total number of tornadoes.

Bunty
05-06-2015, 09:39 PM
Is the weather tomorrow going to be much like today?

A 60% chance for thunderstorms in OKC for Thursday night.

okatty
05-06-2015, 09:40 PM
KFOR just reported that wild animals are loose in the Tuttle area from a wildlife park. Have heard it ALL now.

d-usa
05-06-2015, 09:44 PM
I wonder if today may make a case for sectioning off the storm sirens in Oklahoma City. I hope that nobody on the north side gets siren fatigue and gets hit by anything later tonight...

rezman
05-06-2015, 09:54 PM
9:50 pm and the severe threat is over for Oklahoma County, and the sirens just went off again in northern Okla county.... What the hell?!! They've been going off all evening at about 10 - 15 minute intervals and nothing is going on up here....Enough already!.

venture
05-06-2015, 10:16 PM
A 60% chance for thunderstorms in OKC for Thursday night.

Doesn't really answer what he was asking for. :)


I wonder if today may make a case for sectioning off the storm sirens in Oklahoma City. I hope that nobody on the north side gets siren fatigue and gets hit by anything later tonight...

Norman did that when they replaced all the sirens a few years back. OKC definitely should considering how large it is.

Urban Pioneer
05-06-2015, 10:28 PM
They are actually capable of being sounded individually. It is a far more sophisticated system in capability in contrast to how it is used. Our company actually designed and installed a system for OUHSC that annunciates a recording "A tornado is in the area." "A tornado is not in the area."

The excuse that has been given is that OKC sounds it sirens anytime a warning encroaches anywhere in Oklahoma County as Emergency Management policy assumes that someone may commute into the storm. It's a liability issue created policy.

venture
05-06-2015, 11:23 PM
The national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
Central seminole county in east central oklahoma...


* until 1145 pm cdt

* at 1120 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located 3 miles southwest of seminole...moving east at
15 mph.


Hazard...tornado and tennis ball size hail.


Source...radar indicated rotation.

venture
05-07-2015, 01:59 AM
SPC Outlooks...

Day 1 - SLIGHT RISK for Western and South Central OK, MARGINAL for everyone else.

Day 2 - ENHANCED RISK for Central into Southwest OK, SLIGHT RISK for all but extreme Southeast OK - MARGINAL for them.

UnclePete
05-07-2015, 04:49 AM
People in Oklahoma City and the state of Oklahoma can't run anything right. How long will it be until the residents start ignoring the sirens?

bandnerd
05-07-2015, 06:32 AM
Venture, what causes storms to stall out like that and just sit over an area? It happened two years ago with the El Reno tornado, too. We had flooding and so did the Paseo and other parts of OKC, much like last night. Both of those storms took hours to move on. Thanks!

SoonerDave
05-07-2015, 06:45 AM
They are actually capable of being sounded individually. It is a far more sophisticated system in capability in contrast to how it is used. Our company actually designed and installed a system for OUHSC that annunciates a recording "A tornado is in the area." "A tornado is not in the area."

The excuse that has been given is that OKC sounds it sirens anytime a warning encroaches anywhere in Oklahoma County as Emergency Management policy assumes that someone may commute into the storm. It's a liability issue created policy.

That may be the public story, but I was told by someone with credentials I absolutely trust that, as you note, the system is absolutely addressable on an individual basis, but the main control system has, in effect, big "panic button" that fires all the sirens a once. I was told it is much easier to hit that, and then selectively turn off the ones not affected, than to do the reverse. It's a matter of convenience in a critical situation. I just don't know if I buy 100% into the liability issue considering the notion of sovereign immunity..

jn1780
05-07-2015, 07:21 AM
Doesn't seem like it would be hard to divide the sirens in half and have north side sirens and Southside sirens.

Jesseda
05-07-2015, 07:58 AM
what is the official rain total? I am curious about how much Moore got.

Anonymous.
05-07-2015, 08:08 AM
OKC

Slight risk today.
Enhanced risk tomorrow.
Moderate risk Saturday.

Friday and Saturday could be big time. Saturday will likely be the first High Risk of the season (somewhere).

Anonymous.
05-07-2015, 08:14 AM
You can gauge how much rain fell with this. This does include the overnight rain we got before the storms:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png



bchris, this was not one storm. This was identical to two years ago when storms keep riding up the same boundaries. Each passing storm lays down a type of boundary and the next storm kind of hugs and manipulates the boundary as it moves along. With supercells, they are so strong and self-sustained, that they actually move the boundary (usually laid down just south of passing storm) back to the north slightly. The result is a chain or linking of supercells riding along over the same areas.

venture
05-07-2015, 08:49 AM
Just to reinforce what Anon has posted...Saturday is the big deal. We have a Day 3 Moderate Risk and these almost always translate to a High Risk day.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif?1431006355722

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE MDT RISK AREA FROM
NORTH TX TO KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS AROUND THE ENH RISK AREA FROM
TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO WRN MO AND WEST TO A SMALL PART OF ERN CO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...AND TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS.

...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION
ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A POTENT AND
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES AND
SPREADS HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT AND STRONG SHEAR ACROSS A WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD COME TOGETHER TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN UNKNOWN DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AND STORM EVOLUTION...GENERAL PATTERN RECOGNITION
AND REMARKABLE AGREEMENT IN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER TROUGH
AND JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AXIS...AND CLIMATOLOGY...ALL
SUPPORT A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF NUMEROUS INTENSE
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND
A FEW STRONG/LONGER-LIVED TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

THIS SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD AMIDST A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS AROUND 70F SHOULD RESIDE AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO W
TX. 50-60 KTS OF SWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL PIVOT AROUND MID/UPPER LOW
AND ACROSS OK/KS AS A SFC LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE STRONG SWLY 500MB FLOW
WILL RESULT IN HIGH SRH SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL STRONG TORNADOES AS
WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIAL DISCRETE CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...AND FLOODING THREATS CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT EAST
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH INTO TX.

..CARBIN.. 05/07/2015

Anonymous.
05-07-2015, 08:52 AM
Storms developing now in TX PH. As our atmosphere here in C and W OK continues to destabilize with the sun being out, we could see a couple storms become rowdy by this afternoon.

NAM sort of brings the storms up as a cluster without much individual organization, but anything that tries to get isolated could become a pretty good hailer or more.

Mike_M
05-07-2015, 08:52 AM
Agreed on the siren fatigue. I was downtown doing an event with some non-locals and they kept freaking out every time they heard the sirens. I had to pull out the weather map on my phone every time and explain that we weren't in danger.

venture
05-07-2015, 08:54 AM
Slight Risk Expanded East


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif?1431006790072



...OK/TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS N CENTRAL/NW TX THIS MORNING.
THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL HELP MAINTAIN
THE COLD POOL THIS MORNING...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO MODIFY AND RETREAT
NWD LATER TODAY ACROSS NW TX/SW OK/SE TX PANHANDLE. THE PROBABLE
SCENARIO FOR TODAY IS TO SEE THE BOUNDARY RETREAT AND SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORM BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON TO THE
W...WITH THE STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S IMMEDIATELY S OF THE
OUTFLOW...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A RE-ESTABLISHED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PER 12Z MAF SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE
VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY WILL
AGAIN FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED VERY LARGE
HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR BY THIS EVENING ACROSS N/NW TX AND SW OK WITH THE BELT OF
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANY RESIDUAL
BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS
MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN OK THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.

Anonymous.
05-07-2015, 08:57 AM
Not to alarm anyone, but some of the short-range models are painting another 3-6 inches of rain over much of C OK through tonight with the storms that will be evolving out of NW TX and into SW and W OK.

venture
05-07-2015, 09:01 AM
HRRR going super widespread today with convection, storms could be into the Metro by 4PM, but should...hopefully, be out of here by 9 to 10PM. Greatest tornado threat should be over Southwest and South Central OK...but just keep an eye out.