venture
04-29-2015, 02:10 AM
Instability in the state starts to return on Saturday...May 2nd. So that's where I'll start with this quick daily run down...
May 2nd - Slight chance of storms, NE OK. Severe risk is minimal as it appears now.
May 3rd - Moderate to high instability over Central and Western OK. High CIN/strong cap should prevent more precip as it looks now. If a storms manages to get through the cap, it will probably be severe.
May 4th - High instability over Central and Northern OK. CIN burns over over NW OK where storms are most probable to form. Severe weather will be possible.
May 5th - Moderate instability over the state, no main forcing element, so could see some storms fire over Western OK or TX and move east.
May 6th - High instability most of OK. CIN/Cap burn off by late afternoon. Chance of storms, some severe.
May 7th - Very high instability over Central into Western OK. Little CIN/Cap by mid to late afternoon. Severe storms appear probable by late afternoon in Western OK.
May 8th - System shifts east, instability over Eastern OK which chance of storms.
May 9th - Very high instability Central and Southern OK. Limited precip forecast, but CIN/Cap eroded by afternoon.
May 10th - High to very high instability Central into NW and SE OK. Like the 9th - CIN burned off by late afternoon but little precip forms.
May 11th - High to very high instability most of OK, CIN burned off and storms predicted over Central and SW OK by late afternoon.
May 12th - Rinse and repeat. Ongoing/morning convection will play a role.
May 13th - Broken record but it appears front will start to finally move but not get far.
May 14th - Same as the last few days. High instability, storms predicted...severe weather definitely doable.
At this point will wait until I get the May thread up to go into any highly detailed outlooks
May 2nd - Slight chance of storms, NE OK. Severe risk is minimal as it appears now.
May 3rd - Moderate to high instability over Central and Western OK. High CIN/strong cap should prevent more precip as it looks now. If a storms manages to get through the cap, it will probably be severe.
May 4th - High instability over Central and Northern OK. CIN burns over over NW OK where storms are most probable to form. Severe weather will be possible.
May 5th - Moderate instability over the state, no main forcing element, so could see some storms fire over Western OK or TX and move east.
May 6th - High instability most of OK. CIN/Cap burn off by late afternoon. Chance of storms, some severe.
May 7th - Very high instability over Central into Western OK. Little CIN/Cap by mid to late afternoon. Severe storms appear probable by late afternoon in Western OK.
May 8th - System shifts east, instability over Eastern OK which chance of storms.
May 9th - Very high instability Central and Southern OK. Limited precip forecast, but CIN/Cap eroded by afternoon.
May 10th - High to very high instability Central into NW and SE OK. Like the 9th - CIN burned off by late afternoon but little precip forms.
May 11th - High to very high instability most of OK, CIN burned off and storms predicted over Central and SW OK by late afternoon.
May 12th - Rinse and repeat. Ongoing/morning convection will play a role.
May 13th - Broken record but it appears front will start to finally move but not get far.
May 14th - Same as the last few days. High instability, storms predicted...severe weather definitely doable.
At this point will wait until I get the May thread up to go into any highly detailed outlooks