I agree, and I thought the storms would be moving through before H&8th really kicked off anyways. I am pretty bummed about this.

it's probably more about the set up. i know it's disappointing, but the right move and safety first. i'm sure people with nothing better to do will murder mets over it

Seems like an overly cautious early decision. But, I guess those line of storms would be coming in late afternoon even though they won't last that long. I'm thinking I liked the days before social media when people just took cover in a building for 30 minutes and didn't think every storm system was going to be a tornado outbreak.

I know, right? I remember those days!

From what is being said in the chat it looks like this could be a bust. H&8th may have been cancelled for nothing.

Most activity has moved out of the area with the greatest instability, so things are starting to ramp down. One little storm hanging tough about to move into Binger, but no longer severe.

With that said, new CU development in NW OK that is still baking and hasn't had to deal with this early convection. We'll keep an eye on that.

From what is being said in the chat it looks like this could be a bust. H&8th may have been cancelled for nothing.

I don't know what NWS and H&8th planners talked about today, but the NWS has been down playing the event in OKC since the day started.

You know what would be great? It would be great for H&8 to suddenly say: "False alarm. The party will go on as planned." That would be great because we could go to H&8 and maybe we would't have to wait in line for like 45 minutes to get a beer or a mediocre taco.

Premature cancelling for sure...

Now many of the trucks have probably already made alternate plans.

You know what would be great? It would be great for H&8 to suddenly say: "False alarm. The party will go on as planned." That would be great because we could go to H&8 and maybe we would't have to wait in line for like 45 minutes to get a beer or a mediocre taco.

lol

LIVE! ChaseCam (http://daviddrummond.com/live-chasecam.html)

Tornado in texas right now.

Storm coming into west metro is producing gusts over 50 mph right now in El Reno.

The national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Bryan county in southeastern oklahoma...
Marshall county in southeastern oklahoma...


* until 700 pm cdt


* at 619 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm was located near willis...
Moving east at 45 mph.


Hazard...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.


Source...radar indicated.

Getting hammered here in south Fort Worth... Heavy rain and really nasty winds, some places getting 70mph gusts.

Getting hammered here in south Fort Worth... Heavy rain and really nasty winds, some places getting 70mph gusts.

Tornado Warning just went up for you KR.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-04/24-002.png

Significant Rotation moving through Fort Worth.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-04/24-003.png

Tornado warnings are out and sirens going off. Sadly my best tomato crop in 5 years is laying sideways.

Letting up here just off 35W and I20... The worst is over here, moved through fast.

Happy yard work Saturday. If you don't get it done today you'll have to wait awhile to dry out. :-P

So today will be nice and quiet, no concerns at all.

Sunday

Cold front will come through tonight switching our winds to the north. This boundary will then come back as a warm front on Sunday. At this time it will be very close if the warm front passes OKC, but right now it appears by mid afternoon Sunday it should setup very close to I-40. This will be a focal point for severe weather tomorrow. 06Z NAM has CAPE in excess of 3000 j/kg right along and just south of I-40...roughly between I-40 and Highway 9. CIN is also going to be lowest here allowing for storm development to take place. Severe storms are expect to form in this area with the primary threat being very large hail. SigTOR index is low-ish between 1 and 2 over this area, increase with the LLJ. Tornadoes will not be the primary severe mode though, but with a boundary right here it isn't outside the realm of possibility for a storm to get rooted and start spinning. NAM's precip forecast is a bit more perplexing having no CIN, a breakable cap in place in the late afternoon/evening but no storms until around 9-10PM start in SW OK and moving north. GFS has a similar solution but does get storms going over the SW quarter of OK by 7PM. So we'll just have to watch it. For me, when I see a front in play in an area with little CIN and a breakable cap, I would expect more to pop.

Threat then moves to flooding rain through Tuesday until the upper low finally moves away.Some areas could see 1-2 inches of rain easily, more if you are under a stronger storm.

Going forward we appear to quiet down for awhile - of course this is always subject to change. With severe weather chances returning May 4th through at least the 11th it appears now. Yes...all 8 days if you believe the 06Z GFS. Of course history tells us, it'll be May...of course it'll storm.

Any new updates on this for today 4/26/15 ?

Slight Risk today is roughly the Southwest half of the state, with a marginal risk just north of that. Main threat today large hail, but high wind and a tornado or two not out of the question.

HRRR has the first storms entering Southern OK from TX around 2PM. Storm movement today will be some variation of north as the warm front lifts up.

12Z 4km NAM has storms form just south of the Metro by 6PM and move up over the area. There will be several waves it looks like coming through this evening and tonight, eventually transitioning to just heavy rain with no severe threat.

Today will be evolving a bit when it comes to the extent of the severe threat, but no worrying about the cap shutting us completely down today.

So no bust for the central part of the state today? We can count on exciting weather hopefully.

So no bust for the central part of the state today? We can count on exciting weather hopefully.

It'll rain. If you are expecting a severe weather outbreak, not happening.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0465.gif

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING TX
BIG COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261555Z - 261800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND EVENTUALLY REACH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS COULD
POSE A HAIL RISK LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WATCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY SINCE MID-MORNING
GENERALLY NEAR THE ABILENE AREA AS OF 1530Z. THIS GENERAL INCREASE
SEEMS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING IMPLIED INCREASING FORCING-FOR-ASCENT IS
READILY APPARENT INTO WEST TX PER MORNING IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS.

SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE INITIAL RISK LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY STREAM
NORTHWARD WITHIN A BROADENING MOIST SECTOR...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
INCREASINGLY CONNECT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE-BASED
STORMS BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE.

New AFD from OUN...

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVING CURRENT VIS SAT... CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED NEAR
ABILENE TEXAS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LLANO
ESTACADO AND WEST TEXAS AS WELL... INDICATING ENHANCED LIFT FROM
THE H5 LOW CROSSING NM AT PRESENT TIME. FROM ALL INDICATIONS...
LOOKS LIKE INITIATION ACROSS WRN N TX AND SWRN OK MAY BE MOVING UP
A FEW HOURS... TO LATE THIS AM/EARLY AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP HAVE THE CAP ERODING FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH ABOUT 19-20Z
ACROSS NRN TX. 15Z MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC HAS SBCAPE SLOWLY
INCREASING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NRN BRAZOS RIVER VALLEY... 1500 TO
2000 J/KG. WITH AN EARLIER START... HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS LL WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE TO
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THIS EARLY... BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS/TEXOMA. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTN... SOME BACKING OF THE SFC WINDS
ACROSS TEXOMA WILL INCREASE LL SHEAR/HELICITIES... WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS TEXOMA... BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE
IMPACTS TO THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE EARLY CONVECTION... WHICH COULD
THROW A WRENCH INTO SEVERE CHANCES INTO THE AFTN. CONDITIONS WILL
BE EVOLVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTN.... SO STAY WEATHER AWARE.

DFW area upgraded to Moderate Risk. Strong tornadoes possible down there.

Storms with increasing hail size moving into Western North Texas...will head into SW OK in an hour or two. Stay aware.

I will have the radar stream and chat up today. Working much of the day, but I can turn around and chime in when able. :)

Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDiWTEdWgAESIXd.png:small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CDiWTEdWgAESIXd.png:small

You better get some sunlight V. Don't want you to have to get an orange spray for your Facebook groupies.

That is so not me :-P Regardless...sun is evil and I prefer not to be a lobster. LOL

Line of supercells through North Texas...first TOR warn out down there. OK storms moving in with in the hour.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0467.gif

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN OK AND EXTREME SERN PANHANDLE OF TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261904Z - 262130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTN
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WITH WW ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY SFC FRONT FROM SWRN AR WWD
ACROSS SRN OK...MOVING ERRATICALLY SWD IN SOME AREAS WHILE
QUASISTATIONARY IN OTHERS. WITH TIME...AND AWAY FROM MODULATING
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS..PRIND SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE FRONT
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHIFT/REFORM NWD AMIDST STG SFC HEATING IN CORRIDOR
ALIGNING E-W ACROSS SWRN OK AND INTO SERN PANHANDLE. THIS PROCESS
ALREADY IS EVIDENT IN STG THETAE GRADIENT NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE N OF SFC FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BOUND
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS ON N SIDE. AS AIR MASS BETWEEN
THAT BOUNDARY AND FRONT CONTINUES TO HEAT DIABATICALLY...WITH SFC
DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F...EXPECT CINH TO WEAKEN WITH
MLCAPE RISING INTO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN THOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW
OVER THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY STG DIFLUENCE WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
THAN FARTHER S AND W...BACKED SFC WINDS HELP TO RENDER FAVORABLE
DEEP SHEAR. EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT ARE EXPECTED AMIDST
EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING TO 150-300 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTN.

SVR THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA LIKELY WILL BE MAINLY HAIL AT
FIRST...ARISING FROM EITHER IN-SITU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES AND/OR STORMS MOVING NWD AND NEWD FROM WW 119. TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FOR ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOES LIKEWISE.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES CONVECTIVE MODE...WHICH MAY GROW
MESSY/UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0120_radar.gif

Tornado SW of FTW... baseball sized hail

V, better have your hair look like you've been hard at work, bedazzle your tie, take off your suit jacket, dust off the gitner, pray to Gary, and do a few ab crunches! You need your A game.

Sorry, I don't know what's came over me the last two days. It's just too easy!

Decent rotation on storm near Childress, might move into SW OK.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-04/26-001.png

The national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southwestern jackson county in southwestern oklahoma...
Southern harmon county in southwestern oklahoma...
Northwestern hardeman county in northern texas...


* until 730 pm cdt


* at 638 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast
of kirkland...moving northeast at 20 mph.


Hazard...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.


Source...radar indicated.

Look at all that delicious rain in SW and W OK!

Look at all that delicious rain in SW and W OK!

Isn't that the truth, Anon? It's a beautiful sight to behold.
Here's another wider perspective - look at all that deep dark green!

http://i.imgur.com/oEk4waH.jpg

The national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Central caddo county in southwestern oklahoma...


* until 900 pm cdt


* at 822 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm was located near albert...
Moving north at 25 mph.


Hazard...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.


Source...radar indicated.

Some decent rotation coming up on that cell; heading towards Hinton.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-04/26-002.png

What's with the dry area on radar between SH 39 and SH 7? What's causing that?

Just dry air that comes with all Lows. Just like in winter. It will moisten up and fill in. The main low to this storm system is pretty much going to be parked in Mexico for a couple days.

Except for a few isolated parts in the state, this slow moving system is not looking very impressive so far. I predict Mike Morgan's widespread predicted rainfall amounts of over an inch in the state are not going to measure out.

Except for a few isolated parts in the state, this slow moving system is not looking very impressive so far. I predict Mike Morgan's widespread predicted rainfall amounts of over an inch in the state are not going to measure out.

Don't think the bulk of it is here yet.

if we don't get decent moisture in the metro it's my bad fellas, I shut my sprinklers off over the weekend expecting huge rains today. Never fails

Rain should start to pick up in the next couple of hours over Central OK. One area of developing showers starting from Chandler to Norman to Pauls Valley and down to Ardmore. This will rotate mainly north through central OK. The next main area to watch is going to be the storms currently over SW OK. These are expected to continue to grow and form a nice solid precip shield that will move NE over much of Central OK a bit later today.

Shield of rain with embedded thunderstorms with small hail moving up this way. Continuing to get some storms filling in ahead of the main wave. 1-2 inches of rain possible with this band.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-04/27-001.png

if we don't get decent moisture in the metro it's my bad fellas, I shut my sprinklers off over the weekend expecting huge rains today. Never fails

I washed my car Saturday and so far only got .08 from it. If lucky, there will be enough light showers for the rest of the day to double or triple that amount.

Don't think the bulk of it is here yet.

Overnight in western Oklahoma impressive rainfall amounts expanded from isolated to widespread:
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

A bit better look at how good this is being to the state...4 Day Totals...

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.96hr.png

Venture, is there more rain like this in the forecast for this week? Or is it going to be more hit or miss on the constant rain?

May starting to look pretty busy over the first 10 days...possible chance of storms every day in some part of the state. Of course this will change, but will post more tomorrow after the new Euro comes in.

National Weather Service in Birmingham soon coming to a channel near you | AL.com (http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2015/04/national_weather_service_in_bi.html)

The Alabama NWS office is going to start doing live broadcasts of weather information.

This seems like yet another move into getting out of being the middle man between models and tv networks and more towards giving info directly to people themselves.

Meanwhile Rick Smith is having an interesting Twitter convo right now about how confusing the current warning system is particularly when TV networks get involved. I'm wondering if all this talk is gearing up for a move to responding directly to the people themselves and bypassing TV networks.

I spoke to a colleague in Altus today who said he is ecstatic about the improvements to Lake Altus-Lugert. It has risen three feet and is getting a ton of inflow from the watershed that feeds it. Also, Canton Lake is rising, too. This has been a great April for western Oklahoma.

Rainfall amount here finally went over 1 in. as of 10:25pm, well over my guesstimate that it would only rain around .25". As usual, OKC got more rain with amounts well over 2 in.

National Weather Service in Birmingham soon coming to a channel near you | AL.com (http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2015/04/national_weather_service_in_bi.html)

The Alabama NWS office is going to start doing live broadcasts of weather information.

This seems like yet another move into getting out of being the middle man between models and tv networks and more towards giving info directly to people themselves.

Meanwhile Rick Smith is having an interesting Twitter convo right now about how confusing the current warning system is particularly when TV networks get involved. I'm wondering if all this talk is gearing up for a move to responding directly to the people themselves and bypassing TV networks.

Think it's a great idea. They've been on the radio for years. No reason these days not to start broadcasting - heck, could start streaming a channel on the 'net.

We are now entering the stretch of springtime where conditions are most favorable for a high-end outbreak. KOCO is really starting to focus on the stretch from next Sunday all the way to Friday. Any ideas as to what can be expected?

We are now entering the stretch of springtime where conditions are most favorable for a high-end outbreak. KOCO is really starting to focus on the stretch from next Sunday all the way to Friday. Any ideas as to what can be expected?

In what way were they focusing on it? From what I just saw it seemed to be pretty modest.

In what way were they focusing on it? From what I just saw it seemed to be pretty modest.

Welcome to Spring Time with BChris. ;)

I had some house stuff to take care of today, I'll get an update out tonight. promise.