Severe weather risk are up for the next few days.

Today
ENHANCED risk far Western counties and the Panhandle. SLIGHT risk for the rest of the western counties west of US 183. Then a MARGINAL risk for the counties along and west of I-35 to US 183 - includes the metro area. ENHANCED risk has all modes possible. SLIGHT and MARGINAL risk mainly hail and wind.

Storms should get going today by 3PM in the Panhandle and far NW OK. 13Z HRRR has these migrate to the NE and impact mostly the area just west of Enid and north of I-40. 12Z 4km NAM is about the same but has additional storms south of I-40. The timing has them enter the state around 7-8PM. The line south of I-40 eventually does break up over night but storms may still be ongoing at daybreak around Ponca City.

Friday
SLIGHT risk for NW OK, MARGINAL risk for the rest of the state except far W PH and far E OK. All modes possible in the SLIGHT risk, hail/wind in the MARGINAL. Could see on going isolated showers/storms through out much of the state. First main storms should fire between 2-4PM over Northern OK, dryline storms closer to 5-7PM in SW OK. Storms would enter the I-35 area (from the SW set of storms) between 10PM and Midnight.

Saturday
SLIGHT risk for much of the Central half of the state so east of a line from Enid to Lawton, and west of a Tulsa to Durant line. 12Z 4km NAM doesn't really line up well with this outlook at all. It advances the dryline through pretty fast on Saturday and fires storms in the late afternoon east of I-35 - eliminating much of the risk area currently outlined. We'll have to watch and see if this trend continues or if it snaps back into place.

Help me a bit with some clarity on a couple of days, Ven....

From what I'm reading, it sounds as though the greater OKC area will likely be dry most or all of today (Thursday) - excepting possibly a very late straggler storm in the 9-10pm range - and then tomorrow (Friday), again about the same period?

Still looking at decent rains tomorrow night into Friday. And another shot Sat night into Sunday. And another big shot the middle of next week. Bring the liquid!!!

Anon, is this still forecast to happen?

Storms out in TX PH are currently underway. Models bring it as a conglomerate into OK overnight, but weaken it considerably.

Overcast skies today over parts of W OK and NW TX have prevented a lot of instability in some areas, so lack of storm development and lack of fuel for existing storms will be prevalent. Especially the further S you go. If I had to guess, I would say I-40 and north has a decent shot at receiving some rain tonight.

Ongoing storms should form into large conglomerate of garden variety thunderstorms and showers and move ENE into OK, so weaker and less chance further south you go in main body of OK.

There is some new development west of Wichita Falls that could eventually build into the state from the S/SW, which would obviously increase chances. One thing to note, the C parts of the state are a better environment for these storms. I don't expect any severe weather in C OK.

Three watches in the state right now...

Newest...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0063_radar.gif

Others...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0062_radar.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0059_radar.gif

Itty bitty watch, but Western OK upgraded to a Tornado Watch.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0064_radar.gif

Tornado threat with two storms right now in the Texas PH moving towards OK. One is about to move into Rogers Mills & Ellis Counties. The other is on its tail moving into Wheeler County TX. Also the storm near Erick in Beckham County is now severe. Storm down in Harmon County is borderline severe at this point and then a severe storm up in Woodward County moving into Woods.

Areas to watch where rotation is picking up or well established.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-04/16-001.PNG

The national weather service in norman has issued a


* tornado warning for...
West central roger mills county in western oklahoma...


* until 730 pm cdt

* at 647 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located 4 miles east of allison...moving northeast at
20 mph.


Hazard...tornado and golf ball size hail.


Source...radar indicated rotation.


Impact...flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs...windows and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.


* locations impacted include...
Reydon.

New watch for the overnight.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0066_radar.gif

SLIGHT risk expanded today to include most of the Metro area. It now includes counties along I-35 and back to the west.

...NWRN TX THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK...WRN AND CNTRL KS...NERN CO AND SRN
NEB...

SELY WINDS EAST OF LEE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MODIFIED CP AIR
THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S IN
OK TO 50S IN KS AND NEAR 50 NERN CO. BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL
BE IN PROGRESS FROM CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL OK EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD...AND THE UPSTREAM
ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE IN ITS WAKE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000-2000
J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
DRYLINE/FRONT FROM NERN CO THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS AND SWD INTO WRN OK
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE THROUGH THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL JET ATTENDING THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN CORRIDOR FROM WRN OK INTO WRN KS AND NERN
CO SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE PRESENCE OF A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY EXPAND EWD THROUGH
THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
MID-EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

The bowed out line of storms trying to make it's way through NW Oklahoma is breaking up. It was going to miss OKC, anyway. But another line of storms now in far western Oklahoma should make it to OKC, if it doesn't diminish before then.

The bowed out line of storms trying to make it's way through NW Oklahoma is breaking up. It was going to miss OKC, anyway. But another line of storms now in far western Oklahoma should make it to OKC, if it doesn't diminish before then.

Looks like it's going to make it.

Mesonet this morning showing some healthy rainfall totals (1.5 to 3+ inches) across the NW part of the state; looks great!

Yup. Nice catch for Canton!

Yup. Nice catch for Canton!

My thoughts exactly. Lots of healthy rain in Canton's drainage area; hopefully enough to bring the lake level up a bit.

Much of the area in a slight risk for today, but won't be shocked to see it trimmed back some with this cloud cover. However, some sun is getting through and new storms are already on going in SW OK, some are severe (or close to it) with hail. NW OK is in mostly sunny conditions right now, so they will have the most likely chance for the strongest storms today. NAM agrees with this for the most part, HRRR just gives everyone storms later today. So I would go with storms are likely today - yet scattered about - but the most intense should be in the NW.

Depending on how fast this stuff clears out for tomorrow, another round of severe weather projected. Right now we are just in a Marginal Risk here in Central OK, Slight up to the NW. 12Z 4KM NAM goes against this thinking keeping things pretty isolated in the NW while developing a line of storms, some probably supercells, by 4-5PM along/near US 81 and over I-35 by 7PM.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM4KM/12/FLT/nam4kmFLT_prec_radar_036.gif

Storm moving through Central Caddo County into SW Canadian County is currently severe. Spotter report of 1 inch hail prompting the warning.

MD out for TX PH and W OK.

Looks like similar to last evening, severe thunderstorms with hail and heavy rain. Outside shot at tornado.

Damon Lane posted this outlook for the tornado threat for Saturday, I am thinking this is way overkill for tomorrow ??

https://twitter.com/KOCOdamonlane/status/589160543644045313/photo/1

Today pretty much shut down due to early convection. It'll be interesting to see how quickly we clear out for tomorrow and how much heating we get.

Damon Lane posted this outlook for the tornado threat for Saturday, I am thinking this is way overkill for tomorrow ??

https://twitter.com/KOCOdamonlane/status/589160543644045313/photo/1

I haven't been paying as much attention to the local media this year as I did the past two years, but I will say it seems like this year KOCO is definitely jumping on the hype train moreso than the other stations.

Limiting factors for today getting too out of hand will be moisture. Dewpoints only in the mid 50s and it is fairly shallow moisture as well. HRRR & RAP hinting at some early showers/storms around Noon today over I-35. Then additional scattered development out west ahead of the dryline. SPC is sticking with a SLIGHT for today which could get bumped up based on trends today. We'll just have to wait and see.

Upgraded to Enhanced Risk today.

..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER CO...WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS EVIDENT OVER SOUTHEAST
NM...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO WEST TX AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN OK
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POCKETS OF LOW
CLOUDS ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WESTERN KS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TX...BUT
THOSE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING STRONG
HEATING TO TAKE PLACE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT /-16 AND COLDER AT 500MB/ WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500+ J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF THE DRYLINE FROM WESTERN KS INTO WEST TX. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. THE AREA OF PERHAPS GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE OVER
WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN NEB WHERE EASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS WILL
ENHANCE SHEAR. STORMS THROUGHOUT THE RISK AREA SHOULD PERSIST INTO
MID-EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0354.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0355.gif

Summary...the severe threat is increasing from south-central ks
across western and central ok into north tx. Large hail will be the
main threat as supercells storms track eastward across the mcd area.
However...a tornado or two cannot be rules out. A watch will likely
be needed in the next hour or two.

Discussion...the severe threat across the mcd area is increasing
this afternoon and a watch will likely be need within the next hour
or so. A surface dryline was analyzed from the eastern ok/tx
panhandles south/southwest to the tx big bend area. Further
east...an outflow boundary was located from parts of south-central
ks into central ok. Some strong thunderstorms had developed along
the boundary...but this is not expected to be the main focus of
severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the dryline by 22z and
quickly become severe as they track eastward into south-central
ks...western ok and north tx. High resolution models suggest the
current southwesterly low level winds across western ok into western
north tx become become southeasterly before convective initiation
occurs. In fact...18z surface obs at sps and gag have become
southeasterly at around 5-15 kt. This is likely due to weak
cyclogenesis just ahead of the dryline due to weak height falls
resulting from a branch of vorticity ejecting across the tx south
plains into western ok. As a result...a narrow corridor may exist
where the tornado threat will be enhanced briefly across
southwestern ok. This may result in the need for a small tornado
watch across this area...with a severe thunderstorm watch from
south-central ks through central ok into north tx.

Otherwise...moderate instability near 2000+ j/kg sbcape coupled with
steep midlevel lapse rates will lead to a severe hail threat.
Although low level flow is modest...steepening low level lapse rates
with additional heating could also aid in some strong to locally
damaging winds with the strongest storms.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0073_radar.gif

Ugh all the local tv mets with their "tornado forecasts" today.

Latest radar update. New storm trying to get going in Beckham County, will move NE like the hours and mostly through a pretty open environment. Severe storm by Alva getting ready to go into KS. Next severe storm will be down by Grandfield and will be move NE. HRRR has the storms in that area as the ones impacting the Metro about 7-8PM. We'll have to see.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-04/18-001.PNG

New storm over Chickasha moving NE.

That line is just exploding from the Chickasha storm south east. The main cell north of Chickasha grew fast.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Updated: Sat Apr-18-15 06:30pm CDT
Effective: Sat Apr-18-15 06:30pm CDT
Expires: Sun Apr-19-15 02:00am CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Atoka; Bryan; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Creek; Garvin; Grady; Hughes; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Okfuskee; Oklahoma; Osage; Pawnee; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Stephens

Message summary: Severe thunderstorm watch 77 is in effect until 200 am cdt for the following locations ok . Oklahoma counties included are atoka bryan canadian carter cleveland coal creek garvin grady hughes jefferson johnston kay kingfisher lincoln logan love marshall mcclain murray noble okfuskee oklahoma osage pawnee payne pontotoc pottawatomie seminole stephens

http://stillwaterweather.com/SWSPdata/MapPlot1429400685.png

We are in the chat right now: Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

Raced home to south Moore after dinner with our neighbors warning of large hail. Got home just before the winds kicked in but thankfully no hail. Shew!

A storm bypasses Stillwater by a few miles as thunder is heard from the southeast. Another line of thunderstorms coming in from western Oklahoma may affect OKC and Stillwater, but the southern portion of the line has been weakening.

New development along the outflow boundary in NW OK that is moving Southeast. Could see this build down into the metro before it passes.

Another busy week coming up...

Severe weather threat today - SLIGHT RISK for the Metro area back to the East with an Enhanced Risk over much of Eastern OK. All modes possible.

Tuesday - SLIGHT RISK over SW OK. MARGINAL RISK for the rest of OK pretty much west of I-35.

Wednesday - 15% risk over much of OK. All modes possible.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Updated: Sun Apr-19-15 01:40pm CDT
Effective: Sun Apr-19-15 01:40pm CDT
Expires: Sun Apr-19-15 08:00pm CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Adair; Cherokee; Cleveland; Craig; Creek; Delaware; Garvin; Haskell; Hughes; Kay; Latimer; Le Flore; Lincoln; Logan; Mayes; McClain; McIntosh; Muskogee; Noble; Nowata; Okfuskee; Oklahoma; Okmulgee; Osage; Ottawa; Pawnee; Payne; Pittsburg; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Rogers; Seminole; Sequoyah; Tulsa; Wagoner; Washington

Message summary: Severe thunderstorm watch 80 is in effect until 800 pm cdt for the following locations ok . Oklahoma counties included are adair cherokee cleveland craig creek delaware garvin haskell hughes kay latimer le flore lincoln logan mayes mcclain mcintosh muskogee noble nowata okfuskee oklahoma okmulgee osage ottawa pawnee payne pittsburg pontotoc pottawatomie rogers seminole sequoyah tulsa wagoner washington

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0080_radar.gif

Storms starting to fire over central OK. Hail big risk...don't be shocked to see a bunch of funnels though.

Wednesday's risk has been upgraded to ENHANCED already for most of the Metro area back to Lawton and Wichita Falls and back to the southeast. All modes possible. The Day 3 SPC Discussion...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image5.jpg

...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS AND
MOVES SEWD. A WARM FRONT MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS SRN OK EXTENDING
ESEWD INTO AR. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. AS A CAP
WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY. AN MCS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLD-POOL
ORGANIZATION ALSO POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM OKLAHOMA CITY SEWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER
AT 00Z/THU SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT STORM MODE WILL
DOMINANT. IF CELLS REMAIN DISCRETE...THEN SUPERCELLS WOULD BE THE
MOST FAVORED STORM TYPE. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
COLD-POOL ORGANIZATION WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LINEAR STRUCTURED MCS
WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. EITHER WAY...SOME TORNADOES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ROTATING CELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS. WILL ADD A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM NEAR
AND SOUTH OF OKC SEWD TO NEAR AND EAST OF DALLAS.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SE TX AND LA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z
ON WEDNESDAY SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
DUE TO THIS ENVIRONMENT...CELLS THAT CAN INITIATE ALONG LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE ZONES COULD ROTATE AND POSE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
HAIL. A SEVERE THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING OR
IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS AN MCS APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

A general observation while I wait for a return message on something unrelated :)

I know the NWS and related orgs have been trying to improve the general means of communication for their severe weather forecast products. I can't help wondering, however, if perhaps we've "slud" too far the wrong direction with fractionally too much information that's either so granular or so vague that it becomes inherently hard to act upon. In turn, that dilutes the value of the information - particularly when local media outlets craft or reshape it in their own vernacular.

For instance, we now have the five-tiered risk outlooks that range from "Marginal" to "high" (and I'll offer immediately from a personal POV that "marginal" and "slight" are completely backwards. TO me, the lowest possible risk should be "slight," as in "barely on the map." It's *very* confusing for me, but then again, lots of things are :) ) We see other products or features that break down multiple sizes of possible hail, tornado risks, wind risks, again categorized, and then sometimes slotted with respect to probability percentages. On the one hand, there's a lot of information there. On the other, any one piece of information, eg a 15% chance of pea-size hail in location X, that leaves me saying..."okay, I'm not sure what I can do to prepare for that granular a risk?" And when Super Double Doppler Channel 59 Meterologist Guy/Gal Bobbie Joe Schmidlap sees that same kind of data, it immediately gets reinterpreted and recast into Channel 59's deisgnated weather parlance, and makes the problem that much worse for everyone.

Mind you, I understand the difficulty at hand in communicating weather information in this multi-facted media environment. And I know the weather folks are trying to do something different for the sake of improvement, so please don't think I'm being critical. I do get concerned, however, that an abundance of information can lead to what we might call "advisory fatigue." The NWS is wandering toward more of a "nowcasting" format in many of what I'd only expect to be considered forecasts. I mean, a forecast is looking ahead several hours, maybe a few days...but if a given forecast gets updated every...what...15 minutes (???) it really isn't a forecast product any more.

I know I grew up in the day when you had, essentially severe thunderstorm and/or tornado watches and warnings. That was it. And I know we're trying to subtract the fear factor and the Harem Scarem element out (no matter how hard certain, ahem, forecasters try otherwise), and the best way to do that is information. I still think we've yet to find just the right balance.

Thoughts?

I posted something similar earlier this year, the NWS is most definitely shifting to nowcasting. This discussion would be better suited for the Media Coverage thread.

Right now looks like Wednesday will be a weird setup. The overall weather this week and weekend should be amazing, though.

Right now looks like Wednesday will be a weird setup. The overall weather this week and weekend should be amazing, though.

Hmmmm... Maybe I should consider moving my regularly scheduled Wednesday evening yardwork to this evening?

So in my haste, I completely skipped the rest of the week. I'll do a more indepth model review and such late this evening when I get off work.

Thursday severe risk appears to be confined to Southern Oklahoma mostly.

Friday is a day we must watch. SPC is focusing on the Euro solution right now which is showing a strong negatively tilter upper trough moving into the plains. GFS has the reverse with a positive tilt to the trough. Quick Weather School definitions...

A negative trough is when the orientation is roughly from NW to SE, almost like a digging motion. Here is an example (this is not for Friday)...
http://weatherblog.nbcactionnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/GFS-5001.jpg

A good site to use as a quick reference is: WHAT IS A "NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH"? (http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/)

A negative tilt to a trough is, essentially, music to the ears of storm chasers. It indicates a strong storm system, typically good jet stream energy, and a favorable vertical wind shear for upper level events.

So with that, we need to watch Friday because there are indications - if Euro is right - that we will have a negatively tilted trough moving through. The Euro solution at this point has storms firing by early-mid afternoon on Friday over the US 81 corridor. Surface winds would be backed from the southeast with CAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg by initiation. We need to watch this as SPC is already using very strong wording on a Day 5 outlook, but keep in mind...Euro says one thing - GFS another. This is not set in stone.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SHARPLY ON FRIDAY/DAY 5 WITH THE ECMWF MOVING AN NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHILE THE GFS MOVES A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND
CNTRL PLAINS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WHILE THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH WOULD MEAN A POSSIBILITY FOR AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT IN FROM
NORTH TX NWD INTO SRN KS. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SRN PLAINS.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION VERIFIES. AT THIS POINT...THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS IS TOO GREAT TO ADD AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT FOR FRIDAY.

Today

Marginal Risk today over Northern OK and Western OK. Early morning convection will likely cause today to be a mess, if it develops. Currently some showers/storms moving through from Central back to SW OK. Looks like another late night complex of storms will form in the Northern Panhandle and move over OK through the overnight, reaching the metro around 3AM on Wednesday. Moisture return today is looking to be pretty meh. CAPE during peak heating looks to only get up to 1500 to 1800 j/kg.

Wednesday

Enhanced Risk expanded to cover SW OK and also the southern part of the metro, back to the south and east along the Red River. Slight Risk surrounds it, with a marginal risk north of that. GFS appears to be favored model from SPC that develops storms early over Central OK along the warm front. By afternoon it continues these storms and increases them, but also gets a complex fired over in SW OK. Early convection is going to impact how the afternoon plays out so right now it is going to be a sloppy forecast with high bust potential. It should be noted that looking at GFS's forecast sounding over OKC at 4PM highlights a very favorable wind profile for rotating storms. If we get more heating to get higher instability, supercells with large hail and tornadoes would be very plausible.

Thursday

Not much, except maybe some storms along the Red River.

Friday

A lot of uncertainty still. Neg tilt trough will move through, but Euro has sped up slightly getting it through by early afternoon. GFS still very fast in getting Central OK cleared out. At this point SPC has not outline dit yet, but is closely monitoring.

Keep an eye on late next week and weekend....

Keep an eye on late next week and weekend....

Are you referring to next week and weekend as the week of the 27th?

Also any new info about tomorrows storms for the metro and the storms for Friday?

Are you referring to next week and weekend as the week of the 27th?

Also any new info about tomorrows storms for the metro and the storms for Friday?

Time wise for Friday is still a little iffy. 12Z Euro slowed the dryline down some and has storms firing right over the I-35 corridor (or just west) by 5-7PM.

I'm no meteorologist, so excuse me if this sounds dumb but..I've noticed everybody talking about the Euro(which I've never really seen play a big part in anything). I've heard nothing about the NAM. What are the GFS and NAM saying?

I'm no meteorologist, so excuse me if this sounds dumb but..I've noticed everybody talking about the Euro(which I've never really seen play a big part in anything). I've heard nothing about the NAM. What are the GFS and NAM saying?

Euro was ruled the favorite by the forecasting heads by having the least initialization issues when the run was starting. Essentially it was grasping what was happening at its start time better than the others.

Euro is the slowest out of the 3 we are talking about here. GFS is the fastest with the dryline already at or just past Shawnee at 4PM. On NAM the dryline should be right over I-35 at 4PM.

NAM hasn't got a lot of talk because it only goes out 84 hours...so it just started covering Friday. With two runs under its belt, it has slowed the dryline about 30 miles for the 4PM forecast window.

It needs to be done in time for H&8th or be well after. I plan on going this Friday and I don't often get a chance.

Should see storms develop over the next couple hours from NW OK into C OK and slide ESE. Should be garden variety and not severe.

Gray hair inducing forecast coming up...let's see how badly I fubar this one.

Wednesday

Severe risk is there for today, but it is all dependent on overnight activity through the morning hours. Storms should start to form around 1AM, which there are some signs of this happening in the Northern TX PH. These should ride eastward and then southeast to near OKC during the morning hours. These should put out an outflow boundary and also help the front drop further south. Wherever this front ends up will determine the northern extent of severe weather for today. 00Z NAM pushes it south early and then back north as a warm front in the afternoon. Storms forecast to initiate (on NAM) between Chickasha and Lawton. Movement will then be southeast. 03Z HRRR shows the same movement with the boundaries but also keeps instability low through late morning and afternoon due to on going/early convection.

Thursday

Small area of Southwest or South Central Oklahoma will be fairly unstable and have the chance for a storm or two to go up. Severe weather possible. 00Z NAM has storms possible after 7PM in that area, so might see one or two grumpy storms go up.

Friday

Everything is completely dependent on position of the dryline in the afternoon. If it gets to your east, you are good. If it is still to your west, watch out. 00Z NAM has the dryline over Western OK at 4PM, but nothing extremely sharp. The 55 degree dewpoint line is around US 183. The 60 degree line around US 81. Some hint of a dryline budget near Lawton at this time. The dryline then stalls and sharpens over I-35 around 10PM. It then slowly begins moving east again through the overnight hours, reaching eastern OK by daybreak. 00Z GFS has the dryline bulging through OKC by 4PM to where it is just east of the Metro area. It slows it down around the same time as NAM, but closer to a Tulsa to Ada line. 00Z Euro isn't in yet, so will need to update after that run.

The whole setup Friday is fairly primed for a high end event. However there are variables which will hopefully clear up with these upcoming model runs. Ahead of the dryline wind profiles will be favorable and as the LLJ increase, the tornado threat will increase to favor even strong tornadoes. At night. Which isn't good. So we will be watching the dryline position like a hawk as if it is running slower than expected, it could put OKC into play. As May 2013 proved, it doesn't take a long time with the right conditions for a storm to pop up and tornado and produce a strong tornado.

Additional severe weather possible on Sunday over Central and Eastern OK, but most on that later this week as we get closer.

SPC DAY 1 Outlook is updated to finally fall in line with how models have been handling today.

ENHANCED risk along the Red River counties in Southern OK.
SLIGHT risk from Sayre to Chickasha to Ada to McAlester.
MARGINAL risk from Arnett to Guthrie to Muskogee.

SPC DAY 2 Outlook updated as well and falls in line with what I was mentioning earlier.

SLIGHT risk over parts of Southwest, Central, and South Central OK - as far north of Chickasha over to Pauls Valley.
MARGINAL risk further north over the rest of SW, Central, and Southeast OK.

Looks like so far for Friday SPC has West Central all the way to east Oklahoma under a slight risk. There is a enhanced risk up in Kansas.

Some great rain so far today

Love the thunder and lightening! Oh how I've missed it.

9 is saying there's a possibility of the storm system coming out in the morning instead of the afternoon. Thoughts?

9 is saying there's a possibility of the storm system coming out in the morning instead of the afternoon. Thoughts?

For what day? That is pretty vague when we have multiple days we are talking about here.