Venture,

Are these percentages for Oklahoma City? The entire watch area? These seem awfully high compared to some of the other forecasts for the metro.

Entire watch box.

Entire watch box.

Thanks!

Intense supercell. Strong inflow...must be watched!

https://scontent-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/t31.0-8/887326_610566582409332_6481499759804804001_o.jpg

Storm is TOR warned...funnel spotted.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCGKiZAVEAETpj1.jpg

Sorry for off topic, but you guys need widescreens! For Pete's sake, you could have about 20x the desktop space with a few 2550x1600 (1600p) displays!

Once again - thank you for the coverage you provide here Venture. I always follow the threads (may not understand all of the terminology) and my friends now think I am a weather guru of some sort!

Next round moving in...

OUN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Beckham, Roger Mills [OK] till 8:15 PM CDT

From my view of the different radar apps I have...I don't see anything in Oklahoma that appears to be headed for the metro. Are we still expected to get strong stuff later tonight?

KFOR's last breakin still had a moderate risk of severe weather in the metro around 10PM tonight.

Destructive storm moving entering Dewey and Custer counties. 3 inch hail and winds over 75 mph confirmed with this storm.

For the Metro, watch the line south of Childress. It is moving ENE and building a bit to the north. That will be what gets us if anything does.

Tornado Warning Custer County. Very large lowering/funnel in the lightning.

Severe weather pretty much done for the night. Some rain and storms moving up from the Southwest will gives us a little rain and noise here soon. Don't worry about it, enjoy the free water.

Next round of severe weather looks to be on Sunday then again mid next week. Spring isn't slowing down yet.

Remember, storms don't care about "zones" and "categories".

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCJonQRW8AASss-.png:large

Remember, storms don't care about "zones" and "categories".

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCJonQRW8AASss-.png:large

Hmm, NWS not having a good year so far. Zero tornados in the moderate risk zone. 1 tornado in the enhanced risk zone.

10618

Rain!

What is the next chance of severe storms looking like for Sunday and middle of next week?

10618

Rain!

That would be FANTASTIC! Bring it on!

Storm Outlook...

Today: Severe weather still possible in the state today over SE OK along the cold front as it pushes through.

Friday: Quiet.

Saturday: Instability and moisture returns, some marginal stuff at best in the state.

Sunday: Instability kicks back up into high gear, but forcing is weak, the wind fields are a mess, and all around not much is really being projected to develop - at least on NAM. GFS is much different. Good instability, wind fields that aren't all over the place, and decent parameters for a severe weather day. It also develops storms between US 183 and US 81 by 7PM ahead of the dryline. Then by 10PM a large complex of storms or a squall line would form up along the cold front and crash down through the state. Initial activity would have all modes possible, then transition to a wind threat later. Again - models disagree so take it with a bucket of salt.

More later once GFS is done.

Woke up around 2:00-3:00 am to lightening, rolling thunder and howling wind. My wife asked me to open the bedroom window, which I did. I then ventured into the living room and heard a loud thumping coming from the laundry room so I went to investigate and found that the panel for accessing the attic from within the house was literally being sucked up from it's resting place. I was afraid it was going to get sucked completely up but luckily, there was enough friction to keep it in place. I checked the news and they were saying wind gusts to 40mph. I closed the window and went back to bed.

This morning, I let the dogs out and noticed a full size trampoline in the pond! The backyard it would have come from has a four foot iron fence. I think 40mph winds was a little conservative.

So are we saying Saturday looks like rain, but severe stuff not particularly likely, or just muggy with not much chance for rain until late(r) in the day?

Just trying to plan some yardwork :)

Severe weather not really looking like a major issue for almost the next 2 weeks. A few days could get a little crazy, but models haven't locked in on anything worth mentioning now.

Today - Chance of some storms late in the SW. Severe risk very low.

Saturday - Marginal Risk for the panhandle.

Sunday - Marginal Risk for Norther OK. Might see an upgrade to Slight as we get closer.

Sunday night through Tuesday looks like solid chances of rain.

Projections for 7 day totals are over 2" for most of the state.

But you promised!

;)

I know...I'm a terrible person. LOL Still some marginal stuff this weekend possible. Mid week doesn't look like much of anything. Gulf gets scoured out with that front which closes things down for a bit. Of course...always subject to change and it is April.

But you promised!

;)

It will be May soon enough. The real show then begins or it will be quiet like last year.

I've voting for the latter.

It will be May soon enough. The real show then begins or it will be quiet like last year.

If you believe the long range CFS models...it might be pretty quiet around Central OK. You can see it by going to: COD Meteorology -- Numerical Model Data (http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/) click on Weather Analysis Tools > Numerical Models > CFSv2

I don't put a ton of stock into it since things change so rapidly, but just looking at last night's 00Z run...potential severe days coming up for somewhere in the state:

April 12 - Panhandle
April 14 - S OK
April 16 - W OK
April 24 - W & C OK
April 26 - S OK
April 27 - S OK
May 6 - SW OK
May 7 - S OK
May 11 - SW OK
May 14 - W OK

Can you give any projections on rain for Saturday & Sunday as far as time of day? I desperately need a long running day for my training for the memorial marathon & I need to know when I can be outside for 3-4 hours.

Can you give any projections on rain for Saturday & Sunday as far as time of day? I desperately need a long running day for my training for the memorial marathon & I need to know when I can be outside for 3-4 hours.

Looking at NAM...Saturday afternoon might be pretty dry around here. Sunday is coming in dry on it now as well...but things always subject to change.

Looking at NAM...Saturday afternoon might be pretty dry around here. Sunday is coming in dry on it now as well...but things always subject to change.

Thank you so much! I know Oklahoma needs the rain, but I need to be a little selfish right now lol I hope your projections hold true!

Panhandles upgraded to a Slight Risk for today. For Sunday Marginal Risk expanded to include more of NW OK now.

Good batch of showers and storms moving through this morning. Heavy rain and small hail will be the main stories with these today.

Good batch of showers and storms moving through this morning. Heavy rain and small hail will be the main stories with these today.

It did rain in little more than NW half of the state, but rainfall amounts were generally quite unimpressive. For instance, .05 here. It will be interesting to see what next weak brings, since much of it looks rainy.

Marginal Risk today for areas roughly along and northwest of I-44. Hail and wind main threats. Most storms will be after 3PM and start in the west and eventually line out and slowly shift east through the evening.

Upgrade to SLIGHT risk over NW OK...

...SRN KS/NWRN OK...
NO CHANGES NEEDED. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THIS REGION HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS MOISTURE HAS
SPREAD NWD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 F.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ALSO INCREASING TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS NOT
INDICATED ANY DEFINITIVE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE 18Z HRRR
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO
S CENTRAL KS BETWEEN 21-23Z...WITH THE SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMICS AND
KINEMATICS FAVORING ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

Watch is posted...associated MCD... Panhandle going up now.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0283.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0056_radar.gif

Really nice, slow moving storms in W OK. Dumping much needed rains. Keep going!

Really nice, slow moving storms in W OK. Dumping much needed rains. Keep going!

These storms expected to reach OKC? Doubt they will be severe then.

90% chance for rain in Stillwater later tonight. 80% chance for heavy rain in OKC. It will be interesting to see how the rain gauges measure out tomorrow. But I won't be surprised if the storms die down to mere light showers or less, especially for Stillwater. Maybe the heaviest rains will really happen Monday PM. Chances for rain extend at least clear to Sunday.

Slow moving line still on its way. Some additional storms popping up ahead of the line. No severe weather with this...just a lot of water and noise.

Thunder started in Stillwater as of 4 AM. Radar looks likes storms haven't turned real weak.

Some great rainfall for the west and the rest of the state so far. :)

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.72hr.png

How much is needed to really begin to add to the lakes out there? For instance, if it rains an inch over the water shed for Lake Lugert/Altus, will it see any noticable influx of water?

Really it depends how quickly it comes down. That 4 inch+ bullseye around Elk City and west is from a slow moving storm, so it came down quickly and heavily.

The 2.10 bullseye over Canton is also from a decent storm. Basically at this point, every drop matters in W OK. They are on another level of drought. California levels.

Really it depends how quickly it comes down. That 4 inch+ bullseye around Elk City and west is from a slow moving storm, so it came down quickly and heavily.

The 2.10 bullseye over Canton is also from a decent storm. Basically at this point, every drop matters in W OK. They are on another level of drought. California levels.

That's what I'm worried about. Getting that much rain, even in a 24-hr period might not be a great thing. The ground is so dry, I wonder how much just completely didn't soak in and simply ran off?

Hopefully the previous storms over the past few weeks conditioned the soil a little bit to absorb some more water from today's rain.

That's what I'm worried about. Getting that much rain, even in a 24-hr period might not be a great thing. The ground is so dry, I wonder how much just completely didn't soak in and simply ran off?

Hopefully the previous storms over the past few weeks conditioned the soil a little bit to absorb some more water from today's rain.

For hydrological purposes, runoff is actually preferred right now as it will lead to the filling of area reservoirs and water sources. Yes, the ground does need saturation, and that will come this week, but the much more pressing need is the improvement in water levels.

Yup. Run-off water benefits someone somewhere. Just because it isn't soaking into lawns at the most efficient levels, doesn't mean the pond down the road isn't seeing it either. Water that falls from the sky should be treated like gold in this state.

I have been working on a move back to western OK, and I want to design in gray water collection, rain water collection, and any other possible way to minimize water usage.

I believe the Elk City area is in the water shed for Lake Altus and Lake Tom Steed, so this rain may provide a decent influx. I heard Altus did not receive the big downpours, but they are getting a nice steady rain today for the wheat and pastures.

Main shield of rain over Central and Western OK starting to wind down. Heavy rain mostly now over Eastern Oklahoma.

Thursday evening into Friday looks wet. GFS painting some 2+ inch amounts over C parts of the state.

Thursday evening into Friday looks wet. GFS painting some 2+ inch amounts over C parts of the state.

Anonymous, how's it looking for the SW part?

Looks like SW and southern Okla in particular are in for some good rains. KOCO just predicted 1-2 inches there.

NAM through 12AM Saturday.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/18/SGP/namSGP_prec_precacc_084.gif

GFS through 12AM Saturday

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/SGP/gfsSGP_prec_precacc_084.gif

Wonder if anyone has considered seeding the clouds over the watershed areas to see if that could cause heavier rains in the areas that would help the lakes? I understand some of the seeding done by China before the Olympics were considered successful.

Marginal Risk west of US 81 on Thursday. SLIGHT RISK west of US 183. ENHANCED RISK over the western row of counties along the TX border.

...NWRN TX...TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN OK...SRN KS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BACK ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WWD BENEATH
VERY COOL PROFILES ALOFT. WITH VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...THIS WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN TX
INTO SWRN KS. WHILE MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL BE OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR NWRN TX AND WRN
OK. MODELS VARY AS TO HOW STRONG THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE...BUT
REGARDLESS...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY. SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL WILL
ALSO OCCUR INTO SWRN/CNTRL KS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LESSER.

Still looking at decent rains tomorrow night into Friday. And another shot Sat night into Sunday. And another big shot the middle of next week. Bring the liquid!!!

Anyone want to give a WAY too early forecast for next weekend's OKC Memorial Marathon?

Still looking at decent rains tomorrow night into Friday. And another shot Sat night into Sunday. And another big shot the middle of next week. Bring the liquid!!!

Preach!! We need all we can get.

Anyone want to give a WAY too early forecast for next weekend's OKC Memorial Marathon?

Sure thing. Right now it looks like there will be a storm system somewhere in the plains in that timeframe. However, right now it looks like impacts would be in the evening, and not that morning.

Sure thing. Right now it looks like there will be a storm system somewhere in the plains in that timeframe. However, right now it looks like impacts would be in the evening, and not that morning.

Thanks, Anonymous!

Severe weather risk are up for the next few days.

Today
ENHANCED risk far Western counties and the Panhandle. SLIGHT risk for the rest of the western counties west of US 183. Then a MARGINAL risk for the counties along and west of I-35 to US 183 - includes the metro area. ENHANCED risk has all modes possible. SLIGHT and MARGINAL risk mainly hail and wind.

Storms should get going today by 3PM in the Panhandle and far NW OK. 13Z HRRR has these migrate to the NE and impact mostly the area just west of Enid and north of I-40. 12Z 4km NAM is about the same but has additional storms south of I-40. The timing has them enter the state around 7-8PM. The line south of I-40 eventually does break up over night but storms may still be ongoing at daybreak around Ponca City.

Friday
SLIGHT risk for NW OK, MARGINAL risk for the rest of the state except far W PH and far E OK. All modes possible in the SLIGHT risk, hail/wind in the MARGINAL. Could see on going isolated showers/storms through out much of the state. First main storms should fire between 2-4PM over Northern OK, dryline storms closer to 5-7PM in SW OK. Storms would enter the I-35 area (from the SW set of storms) between 10PM and Midnight.

Saturday
SLIGHT risk for much of the Central half of the state so east of a line from Enid to Lawton, and west of a Tulsa to Durant line. 12Z 4km NAM doesn't really line up well with this outlook at all. It advances the dryline through pretty fast on Saturday and fires storms in the late afternoon east of I-35 - eliminating much of the risk area currently outlined. We'll have to watch and see if this trend continues or if it snaps back into place.