Might finally have a tower or two breaking through up north, but those high level clouds are rolling in over them now.

You might have already mentioned this but what does it mean for tomorrow if nada happens tonight?

You might have already mentioned this but what does it mean for tomorrow if nada happens tonight?

Mentioned it a bit in the chat a bit ago...it definitely throws the NAM forecast off since there won't be the big outflow boundary to be a focus tomorrow. It also means the atmosphere won't be worked over and still primed.

With that said, we have to see if we get convection to fire late tonight or tomorrow morning/early afternoon. One ensemble had a bunch of storms pop early from the Metro on to the North and through Kansas. It then cleared out for a few hours during peak heating and then lit up the entire dry line. So needless to say...still a very evolving situation.

Well the front in Kansas is finally going up. Strongest cell is south of Fredonia.

Confirmed tornado with the southern storm in Kansas.

looks like i might be right in the middle of it in Wichita tomorrow, working about an hour north of here in Hutchinson tomorrow afternoon - goal is to get out of there early enough to be at the hotel before they get here

That SE KS cell could be storm of the year already. Stationary, good inflow, open land.

That SE KS cell could be storm of the year already. Stationary, good inflow, open land.

That thing appears to be cycling back up as well...it has to be loving the energy available to it.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/13126_610251505774173_4704677251273116386_n.png?oh =3c661409981071faa0d7484bd53a7a6c&oe=55A27736&__gda__=1437543477_42565eb342b01f38d27cd8f04999958 4

Wednesday Discussion....

Still questions on how Wednesday will evolve. Long lasting supercell over SE Kansas has started to cause some minor back building. Earlier models had forecast a complex to form and dive through NE OK overnight. Still yet to see if this happens, but if it does it can lay down an outflow boundary I had discussed earlier. Near term through the overnight, slight chance of severe weather in the extreme northeastern OK counties with this supercell if it makes the border. It has been tornadic for nearly 2 hours now with sporadic touchdowns - but it just hasn't really moved a lot.

Model guidance is still a bit mixed on how things will evolve tomorrow...

4KM NAM - Isolated/scattered storms form around 3PM over the Western Metro and move to the NE. By 5PM additional storms form in North Central OK along the front. By 6PM additional storms fire along the dryline in Southwest OK, while on going severe weather in Northeast OK. It currently projects the dryline activity will fade out by 10PM before reaching Central OK. Atmosphere is still projected to get highly unstable with CAPE values around 4000 j/kg ahead of the Dryline. Significant tornado parameters would be moderate over the Central 1/3rd of Oklahoma by 7PM and will increase with the LLJ in the evening - which could be important if we see activity around or after sunset. The NAM also doesn't really sharpen the dryline that much and keeps it pretty far west. We'll be in the soup until about 1PM on Thursday when the front crashes through.

GFS - Similar story on dryline placement, but it moves the front in about 3 hours earlier. Precip wise it has storms over NE OK earlier in the day that eventually fade out by late morning. New development by 4PM along the cold front from about Clinton up to Ponca City, but keeps most activity north of I-40 and does not initiate the dryline. Instability ahead of the dryline still very high with CAPE around 3000 j/kg.

RAP - Dryline a bit further east into OK on the RAP by 4PM...running from Alva down to Altus. Precip wise it initiates showers/storms along/near I-35 by Noon, moves those out, and then another batch along the dryline from NW OK south through Texas. Instability is similar to NAM with 4000 j/kg all ahead of the dryline with minimal CIN by mid afternoon. 4PM is the extent of its forecast window for now, so can't go any further.

SPC's Storm-Scale Ensemble (SPC SSEO 3SP-1KM-REFL40 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sseo/sseonew12.php?run=20150407&cycle=12&sector=14&id=3SP-1KM-REFL40)) is a nice tool as it allows you compare several models at once. Still waiting for the 00Z update, but 12Z did initiate all along the dryline with most of its members. So taking that into consideration, I do expect the dryline to fire and also see storms in Northern OK early in the afternoon. Severe weather is pretty much likely with any storms that do go up. Those that remain isolated and don't have interference from other storms will be most likely to have very large hail and tornadoes. Keep in mind, even if coverage isn't significant, it just takes one cell to cause a bad day.

Metro upgraded to an enhanced risk and an upgrade to moderate may be needed tomorrow. Slight risk expanded south. Entire enhanced risk is under a 10% hatched area for tornadoes.

If I read it right, they've tightened up the area of enhanced risk to barely exclude most of the metro? I'm very interested in what our weather geniuses have to tell us about the day. It been a beautiful, cool morning (I've been up and outside before dawn)but notwithstanding the cool breezes, I feel some sticky soupy stuff hovering between wafts.

Super rich moisture in place today. Could have some garbage convection develop in SW OK this morning and move across area this afternoon. This would help keep a leash on some things for tonight.

However, it looks like multiple supercells will be firing late afternoon into evening and march from W OK into C and N OK. Models are having a tough time, but actually some indication of the dryline firing multiple rounds.

If things get clear here in main body of the state and we start cooking under the sun, I could see a MDT risk upgrade.

If I read it right, they've tightened up the area of enhanced risk to barely exclude most of the metro? I'm very interested in what our weather geniuses have to tell us about the day. It been a beautiful, cool morning (I've been up and outside before dawn)but notwithstanding the cool breezes, I feel some sticky soupy stuff hovering between wafts.

This says it best right now...

Rick Smith @ounwcm (https://twitter.com/ounwcm)

Don't get hung up on exact placement of outlook lines today! There are fuzzy edges on those lines. Storms don't know they're there! #okwx (https://twitter.com/hashtag/okwx?src=hash)

Super rich moisture in place today. Could have some garbage convection develop in SW OK this morning and move across area this afternoon. This would help keep a leash on some things for tonight.

However, it looks like multiple supercells will be firing late afternoon into evening and march from W OK into C and N OK. Models are having a tough time, but actually some indication of the dryline firing multiple rounds.

If things get clear here in main body of the state and we start cooking under the sun, I could see a MDT risk upgrade.

Definitely. Both the NSSL and SPC WRF have those multiple rounds -- a lot more of a complicated evolution than I perhaps originally expected.

Here is the uncalibrated 00Z NSSL WRF probability for a tornado within 25 miles of a point, FWIW (not to be taken literally with placement and/or percentages!). Seems to agree people well with the current outlook boundaries. An Enid -- Wichita -- Tulsa triangle seems to be the area with the biggest threat today.

http://i61.tinypic.com/35k25xi.png

Would you elaborate in a sentence or two of the significance/reason for multiple rounds? If it's too complicated to break down in a few words, no worries. Thanks, regardless.

12Z HRRR...

Scattered storms developing over SW OK and near the US 183 corridor in Western OK by 12PM. Most of these should all move off to the NE of the Metro by 5PM. A few could get grumpy but should all be elevated.

At 5PM next round fires over SW OK and in NW OK. These would start coming into the Metro around 8PM and will probably be the most severe stuff for today. Storms will probably continue most of the evening, but the leading batch will probably be the most severe.

Tornado risk goes up this evening with the LLJ kicking in, so we'll have to keep an eye on any organized supercells at that time.

Starting to get development in western North Texas now...one cell south of Childress and another down to the NE of Abilene.

Edit - Add SW OK to the mix now...north of Mangum.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/v/t1.0-9/11081201_610420315757292_2878699054968457846_n.png ?oh=6e19d4071a3fdbe061e3ca131352b2b0&oe=55A7772B&__gda__=1437016311_fbedcc8d9c1393a3e7fc96ec216490e d

Do we know yet what the storms for this weekend and next week are looking like? high end Severe like today? I have to work until 4:00 pm Saturday so trying to decide if I should work from home or go in.

Do we know yet what the storms for this weekend and next week are looking like? high end Severe like today? I have to work until 4:00 pm Saturday so trying to decide if I should work from home or go in.

Nothing to worry about right now...and I wouldn't worry about something until we are much closer considering how much of a bear it has been to get these last few days right.

Radar update of the non-severe storms in SW OK...

https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/11017200_610438005755523_7236200384577314030_n.jpg ?oh=811b4032bb03f1ec2eeda0da37151327&oe=55B14557&__gda__=1438175710_a1053a387bdb1233482c0e79d760c96 e

Storm SW of Roosevelt moving NE maybe some very small hail with it now. Same for the storm just north of Cordell.

OUN will be launching a special balloon today at 3PM.

...significant weather advisory for southeastern harmon...comanche...
Greer...western canadian...northwestern grady...cotton...caddo...
Eastern custer...blaine...western kingfisher...kiowa...southeastern
beckham...tillman...southeastern dewey...jackson...wa****a...
Northwestern clay...wilbarger...northwestern baylor...wichita...
Southeastern foard...northeastern knox and southeastern hardeman
counties until 1215 pm cdt...

At 1113 am cdt...scattered showers and some thunderstorms were along
a line extending from 5 miles southeast of arapaho to near clinton
and altus oklahoma... To near vernon... To 10 miles northwest of
lake kemp texas...moving northeast at 45 mph.

Hazards include...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...

Venture, am I correct in picking up a sense that there's a bit of heightened concerned about possible overnight storms, given the new enhanced risk area covering the metro and the special weather balloon? Or is that just coincident timing?

Venture, am I correct in picking up a sense that there's a bit of heightened concerned about possible overnight storms, given the new enhanced risk area covering the metro and the special weather balloon? Or is that just coincident timing?

There is going to be greater threat for rotating storms with the late afternoon activity that fires off the dryline. When this stuff moves in late this evening, the low level jet will kick up and conditions will be a bit more favorable for them to spin some.

I just found this weather forum today. Just wanted to say this a great stuff! Thanks to those providing the info.

15Z HRRR showing late afternoon activity will start to have more of a spin potential with it...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/15/OKC/hrrrOKC_con_uphly_007.gif

Let's hope the strong cap wins out today. Hopefully it ate it's Wheaties this morning lol

After this early afternoon garbage convection, it looks like skies will clear behind. Leaving the stage for lots of fuel. Skies are already mostly clear immediately west of the ongoing convection.

Up to a moderate risk in N OK/S KS with a 15% hatched tornado area.

Relevant for our area:

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO OZARKS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY THU...
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
LONGER-LIVED...DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THIS EVE THROUGH
LATE TNGT NEAR AND ENE OF SFC WAVE TRACKING ENE ACROSS S CNTRL KS
AND ADJACENT NRN OK/W CNTRL MO. GIVEN THAT THE LOW-LVL FLOW LIKELY
WILL APPRECIABLY/STRENGTHEN GIVEN BOTH TIME OF DAY AND THE
FAVORABLY-TIMED APPROACH OF BAJA JET MAX...THE CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN LOW-LVL HODOGRAPH LENGTH AND CURVATURE COULD YIELD AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. MORE ISOLD TSTMS WITH A
RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED SSWD
ALONG DRY LINE INTO W CNTRL TX.

SPC has upgraded Northern OK to a Moderate Risk. Rest of the risk areas remain unchanged. MDT risk area has 15% tornado chance.

Moderate upgrade for extreme NC and NE OK.

I just found this weather forum today. Just wanted to say this a great stuff! Thanks to those providing the info.

This is the best place and Venture also has a weather site for exciting times.

http://i.imgur.com/nqmzxkH.jpg

Basic afternoon setup.

For those of you who are new here and don't know, Venture has a chat room available here: Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

A bunch of us gather in there on days like today, and Venture always does a great job analyzing storms and tracking conditions. Good stuff!

KOCO has posted a graphic that says tornado chance is 8/10 today for central and north central Oklahoma. Really that high here in the metro? Just watched KFOR at noon and they didn't sound that much alarm.

KOCO has posted a graphic that says tornado chance is 8/10 today for central and north central Oklahoma. Really that high here in the metro? Just watched KFOR at noon and they didn't sound that much alarm.

The image in question:

http://i.imgur.com/uF0Zu8z.png

Also the NWS is now up to 3 weather Youtube briefings for today and it's barely noon. They are definitely pushing the stay aware today message heavily.

KOCO has posted a graphic that says tornado chance is 8/10 today for central and north central Oklahoma. Really that high here in the metro? Just watched KFOR at noon and they didn't sound that much alarm.

That's only a fraction off the infuriating "TORCON" index that the Weather Channel puts out. Stick with what you see here and what folks like the NWS issue, and just stay aware.

Given that dryline/boundary setup, that 'triple point' up there in S. Kansas with all this instability explains why they've upgraded N. Cen OK to "moderate risk." While clearly central OK could see some stuff later (because storms could fire essentially anywhere along and ahead of that dryline, that NE'ly track tends to favor W->North Central OK as the day progresses.

I'll be keeping my eye on the dryline. If that picks up steam and heads east more quickly, things could change for central OK. Just have to keep watching.

Edit: Honestly, I think KOCO is "gilding the lily" a bit by extending "central OK" all the way to Ponca City. Northern Oklahoma is very much in a higher-risk zone (as noted by the moderate risk elevation). I think they want folks to see "Central OK" but think "OKC" and become a little...edgy.

https://twitter.com/ounwcm

Rick Smith @ounwcm • 11m 11 minutes ago
1240pm - severe storms most likely to affect OKC metro area after 8pm. #okwx

Speaking of north central Oklahoma.
Blackwell is one of the most tornado aware small towns in Oklahoma.
For many years every school has had a large underground storm shelter….
They have over lapping storm siren coverage. They have had a good network of storm spotters and a dedicated channel for local cable coverage?
The vast majority of people have a basement or access to a shelter.

Current showers/storms will move through without much fanfare. Western OK is starting to bake again and some CU is starting to go up. Impacts to the metro area will depend which storms get their act together and can be sustained.

First of the day...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCF2b-JUIAA5EUA.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2015/mcd0234.gif

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081921Z - 082115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...NRN END OF ELEVATED TSTM BAND HAS INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
OK/KS BORDER AND WILL POSE A NEAR-TERM RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE TORNADO
RISK INCREASING ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.

DISCUSSION...LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL BUT ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVERAGE HAS SLOWED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM CNTRL OK SWD.
NRN PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER AREA AND WILL PROGRESS NEWD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THOUGH MODIFIED 18Z TOP RAOB
SUGGESTS MLCIN REMAINS ROBUST...THE PRESENCE OF THIS ELEVATED
CLUSTER AMIDST A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM UPSTREAM OVER NW OK WITHIN THE
NARROW CORRIDOR OF INTENSE HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE AS HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE TX PANHANDLE OVERSPREADS IT LATER. LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES /A FEW STRONG/
WILL INCREASE AS WELL.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/08/2015

Recent image of the visible satellite with the dryline drawn on. Mesonet images are for dewpoints and also solar radiation - where the sun is out. Currently out in most area ahead of the dryline all the way through SW OK - which there is still a lot of cloud cover but well ahead of the dryline some.

https://scontent-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10628481_610524792413511_3694393239519494829_n.png ?oh=dbd589cdf7954eaeb88ec4dca97bd056&oe=559A8BE4

This cloud deck is holding temperatures pretty well.

I am almost ready to go out on a limb and say garden variety storms for SW to C OK, and keep most serious business activity north. The only thing that leaves caution is the fact the atmosphere is very unstable over the entire area which could make some storms pack a decent punch if held together long enough.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCGD96EWAAAgkK2.png

The national weather service has issued severe thunderstorm watch
35 in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening for the following areas

in arkansas this watch includes 2 counties

in northwest arkansas

benton carroll

in oklahoma this watch includes 12 counties

in northeast oklahoma

craig creek delaware
mayes nowata osage
ottawa pawnee rogers
tulsa wagoner washington

this includes the cities of...bartlesville...bentonville...
Berryville...bristow...claremore...eureka springs...jay...miami...
Nowata...pawhuska...pawnee...pryor...rogers...tuls a...
Vinita and wagoner.

Dryline is getting ready to go. Echoes started to get picked up on radar and tower CU on satellite.

Real time updates will be in chat: Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html)

Humph.. I ran the bike home at lunch and swapped out to the truck. Looks like I could have waited.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCGKiZAVEAETpj1.jpg

The national weather service has issued tornado watch 36 in
effect until midnight cdt tonight for the following areas

in oklahoma this watch includes 26 counties

in central oklahoma

canadian kingfisher lincoln
logan oklahoma payne

in northern oklahoma

garfield grant kay
noble

in northwest oklahoma

alfalfa blaine dewey
ellis major woods
woodward

in southwest oklahoma

caddo greer harmon
jackson kiowa

in western oklahoma

beckham custer roger mills
wa****a

in texas this watch includes 1 county

in northern texas

hardeman

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCGNLwWUsAAbEEC.jpg

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (40%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (40%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (50%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

Roger Mills County should be the first warned today...storm increasing and hail size getting bigger.

OUN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Woods, Woodward [OK] till 5:00 PM CDT

Roger Mills storm has weakened some.

The national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Central woods county in northwestern oklahoma...
Northeastern woodward county in northwestern oklahoma...


* until 500 pm cdt


* at 432 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast
of alabaster caverns state park...moving northeast at 35 mph.


Hazard...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.


Source...trained spotters.

OUN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Roger Mills [OK] till 5:30 PM CDT

IEMBot OUN @iembot_oun (https://twitter.com/iembot_oun)

OUN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Harper, Woods [OK] till 5:30 PM CDT

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (40%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (40%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)




Venture,

Are these percentages for Oklahoma City? The entire watch area? These seem awfully high compared to some of the other forecasts for the metro.