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Not that it has a ton of support right now, but today's 18Z NAM would be atrocious on Wednesday. 0.5-2" of sleet along I-44 with snow north of that and a dusting on top.

It's already March? Good god. It was Christmas yesterday.

Let the warm up begin. Please Oklahoma I want some Spring in my life...

12Z GFS just went serious business for Tuesday into Wednesday.

12Z GFS just went serious business for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Do Tell.

12Z GFS just went serious business for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Hopefully it knows what it is spitting out since we are this close to the Tuesday evening Wednesday time frame. Yes spill the detail please Anon...

Take these automated precipitation type algorithms with a grain of salt, but as for what the 12Z runs are showing for OKC --

12Z NAM:

http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/current/KOKC/prec.png


12Z GFS:

http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/gfs/current/KOKC/prec.png


Keep in mind that the quantitative amounts listed is liquid equivalent. Freezing rain will be the same amount for assumulation, but sleet may be a ~3:1 ratio and snow a much higher ratio on the order of 10:1 or higher. So, in a nutshell, the NAM shows thunderstorms transitioning to light sleet and eventually snow by Wednesday afternoon (less than an inch) while the GFS shows over a quarter inch of freezing rain followed by very light sleet/snow. The upcoming situation involves a front crashing southward as there is precipitation around the area so forecasts are bound to be tricky (and from what I've seen they've been swinging around a lot).

Or as the weather app on my phone put it: a 50% chance of snow on Wednesday.

Waiting for 18Z (and probably 00Z) before details. So late tonight we should have a decent idea.

Or as the weather app on my phone put it: a 50% chance of snow on Wednesday.

Hopefully these discussions are more informative than a simple phone app with no "behind the scenes" look. :)

Yikes, 18Z NAM and GFS both bread and milk.

I think if the next two GFS runs are similar, we will see winter storm warnings by morning.

Lets hope we get a foot of snow and NO ICE!

I prefer Accuweather's soothing forecast for OKC lol

"Coating to an inch of snow for late tomorrow night into Wednesday afternoon"

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full8.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full6.jpg

NAM 4-km resolution snowfall output...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015030300/nam4km_asnow_scus_21.png

We'll probably see Winter Storm Watches go up overnight from Central OK back to the east and north. Waiting on GFS...

GFS loading now. The anticipation!

10276

Slower on arctic air arrival, so potentially less freezing rain and sleet accumulations. Tomorrow will be fun.

Weather in 6 minutes. Stay tuned...

Weather in 6 minutes. Stay tuned...

Im pretty sure we are 24 hours here. ;)

Slower on arctic air arrival, so potentially less freezing rain and sleet accumulations. Tomorrow will be fun.

Yeah. Looking at the last 3 runs with the GFS, it seem sto be slowing down on each run. NAM is even a bit slower on getting the surface down to freezing. General rule though is that cold air gets here faster than models typically say, so we'll just need to watch it early Wednesday.

Why have we not seen any winter storm watches/warnings issued for this storm system yet?

So I'm thinking this winter storm this evening through tomorrow might be a little heavier than what some are thinking (at least in my side of the state)... I know the models are having a difficult time but I see this being like a lot of the winter storms we get in OK, models can't make up there minds which makes people get mad and blame the weather men when they have to all of a sudden issue a winter storm warning AFTER it starts snowing. People need to realize the models jump around a lot and it can be difficult to be predict. The last few storms had winter storm warnings issues in Tulsa after it had been snowing for awhile. Anyways, I do honestly believe there will be AT LEAST a winter weather advisory/Travel advisory issued for central/east OK sometime this afternoon. (maybe even a winter storm warn for east) Stay safe everyone, today should be fun trying to figure out what'll happen next.

Bobby821.... There waiting to see what'll happen. Like is said above, it'll likely come last minute or after the snow/ice starts. I'll post the message for the NWS in Tulsa.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
446 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-032200-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE.. .
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA.. .MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW ...OKEMAH...
OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOG EE...EUFAULA...
SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEA U
446 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MORE WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A RATHER MILD TUESDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND EVENTUALLY TO
MOSTLY SNOW AND SLEET BY WEDNESDAY. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR
LATER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...MAINLY
FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING.

THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST IS CALLING FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHERE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY
OCCUR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS AREA REMAINS UNDER A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH MAY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TODAY.

NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT ICING TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET BY WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD SEE AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF ICING ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AS THE
DEVELOPING SITUATION BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR.


Again, I honestly do believe there will be advisory/warnings issued later on.

This is where the models become both a blessing and a curse. They're accurate enough to tell is winter weather iscoming, but not granular enough to offer much confidence beyond, what, maybe a 50-100 (?) mile range. That's pretty darned good for a mathematical model, but a pain for someone on the ground trying to forecast differences in conditions between, say, OKC and Norman or Pauls Valley.

Less than 24 hours away from event and no advisories in NWS Norman viewing area.

I think Winter Storm Warning will be issued for I-44 corridor then eastward kind of hugging I-40 and then north towards Tulsa.


NAM still thinks cold air will be slower, so less sleet and frz.
GFS is slightly higher on sleet and snow.


Basically NAM is having the low to get cranking directly over OK and then shove off to the NE.
GFS is having the low crank over OK and then slowly slide S/SE (heavier precip for longer)

Less than 24 hours away from event and no advisories in NWS Norman viewing area.

I think Winter Storm Warning will be issued for I-44 corridor then eastward kind of hugging I-40 and then north towards Tulsa.


NAM still thinks cold air will be slower, so less sleet and frz.
GFS is slightly higher on sleet and snow.

Will OKC and Moore be included in the Winter Storm Warning. or is OKC and Moore going to get jipped on this storm system too??

I think NWS is scared silly about issuing a warning on which some districts are likely to close schools, only to find the storm shifted here or there a few miles. I don't blame 'em. Huge responsibility. It isn't such a big deal on weekends with no school and less business impact, but midweek? Ugh.

I am only guessing about advisories based upon model data and history of these types of events. But not being in the WSW does not mean a regular winter wx advisory won't be upgraded during event.

Remember earlier this winter in December when the NWS jumped the gun and issues IceStormWarnings for nearly the entire state, then we warmed up to like 36F and everything was cancelled.


Rain/Ice/Sleet/Snow determination comes down to literally feet of air when it comes to how cold the levels of atmosphere are.

http://blogs.extension.org/edenotes/files/2015/02/precip_types.jpg

Will OKC and Moore be included in the Winter Storm Warning. or is OKC and Moore going to get jipped on this storm system too??

Seems to me if it's base on "I-44 corridor and eastn" that would include the metro.

Will OKC and Moore be included in the Winter Storm Warning. or is OKC and Moore going to get jipped on this storm system too??

Why are you acting like OKC has gotten "jipped" all year? They have had above average snowfall this winter. Not always being in the area of max snow doesn't mean you have gotten "jipped".

Why are you acting like OKC has gotten "jipped" all year? They have had above average snowfall this winter. Not always being in the area of max snow doesn't mean you have gotten "jipped".

It does too, if you don't get a lot of freezing rain or snow then it might as well be for nothing. what good is it if it melts shortly after falling need lots of deep snow or a good ole blizzard with a foot of snow or more that's a good memorable snow and it wont melt soon after it falls either. and Winter weather advisories are kids stuff, need winter storm warnings or ice storm warning for meaning full winter weather.

Why are you acting like OKC has gotten "jipped" all year? They have had above average snowfall this winter. Not always being in the area of max snow doesn't mean you have gotten "jipped".

Exactly. This is why we don't bother with the "will it do X at the corner of ___ and ___" type forecasting here like people always seem to demand from the local news stations.

The 12Z NAM has a couple bands with 2-4 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts, with it as everything moves through. Forecasting the exact placement of these bands is very difficult. However, 2-3 inches is well with in Advisory level criteria. I would expect them to just paint the forecast area with advisories and only upgrade if the need arises when precip starts and if it looks like one of the bands will dump more than 4-5 inches of snow or more freezing rain than expected.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015030312/nam4km_asnow_scus_21.png

Yea I can see that, too.

It does too, if you don't get a lot of freezing rain or snow then it might as well be for nothing. what good is it if it melts shortly after falling need lots of deep snow or a good ole blizzard with a foot of snow or more that's a good memorable snow and it wont melt soon after it falls either. and Winter weather advisories are kids stuff, need winter storm warnings or ice storm warning for meaning full winter weather.

1. "Jipped," or the correctly spelled "gypped" is a racist term and it would probably be better if you stopped using it.

2. We have had plenty of winter weather, more than average, in fact. Just because YOU are unhappy with how much fell doesn't mean that the rest of us are. Some of us have jobs to do and the weather has impacted us greatly so far. I would really rather it do nothing at all, or just rain. You don't need a "memorable" amount of snow for it to impact thousands of people's lives and livelihoods.

3. I hear Boston has plenty of snow. Feel free to ask them how they feel about it.

1. "Jipped," or the correctly spelled "gypped" is a racist term and it would probably be better if you stopped using it.

Today I learned...never thought about that word and its connotation.

1. "Jipped," or the correctly spelled "gypped" is a racist term and it would probably be better if you stopped using it.True, but many of our colloquialisms share such a common heritage of our past. Even "honky-tonk" could be considered somewhat racist. And how about "That's white of you," too often used as a compliment?

In the past several days I've been reading some classics on Google Books, scanned from editions nearly a century old. It's amazing how racist Rudyard Kipling's writings were, and Twain's "Conneticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court" is so filled with anti-Catholic tirades that I can only manage about a chapter at a time before coming up for air...

Today I learned...never thought about that word and its connotation.

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/014/033/knowing.jpg

True, but many of our colloquialisms share such a common heritage of our past. Even "honky-tonk" could be considered somewhat racist. And how about "That's white of you," too often used as a compliment?

In the past several days I've been reading some classics on Google Books, scanned from editions nearly a century old. It's amazing how racist Rudyard Kipling's writings were, and Twain's "Conneticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court" is so filled with anti-Catholic tirades that I can only manage about a chapter at a time before coming up for air...

People say "that's white of you?" I've never heard that. I've heard black people be called "white" for speaking with correct grammar (a whole thing that was spoken about at our Black History Month assembly last week) but I've not heard that, at least in my circle. I think it's the hatred with which people say "gypped" that gets me the most. The Gypsies didn't make it not snow, don't be mad at them.

I think it is occasionally important to note that this thread does draw extremes on both sides. Those that are fanatical about the weather those that are very much on the opposite end of the spectrum. Just remain respectful to both sides is all ask. Otherwise come Spring, we are going to be in trouble when the first tornado day arrives. :)

Adv is out...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

OKZ019-020-022>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-040130-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0029.150304T1200Z-150305T0600Z/
LOGAN-PAYNE-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...S EMINOLE...
HOLDENVILLE...HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...F REDERICK...
LAWTON...DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...
WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA.. .MARIETTA...
MADILL...DURANT...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL.. .VERNON...
WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
1116 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING: ACCUMULATING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY TO NOON. FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION
TO SLEET AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS: SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE HIGHEST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE-44 CORRIDOR WHERE
SOME AREAS COULD SEE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE TWO INCHES OR LESS OVER A LARGER AREA...
ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE-44 COULD SEE UP TO FOUR
INCHES IN ADDITION TO THE SLEET.

* MAIN IMPACT: SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW.

* OTHER IMPACT: WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE-40...DECREASED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL
COMPOUND THE TRAVEL DANGERS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

this is going to be a headache for school administrators in the morning.

The correct move is to cancel school now. I don't know why it is difficult. It is the same thing every time you let kids gets to school, then weather hits and people are stuck, trying to checkout early, parents trying to leave work, etc...

What is the worst that could happen? The weather never gets bad and now you have them make up the snowday at the end of year like normal.

I'm supposed to have band contest tomorrow in Edmond. I've already had one contest postponed and now have TWO solo/ensemble contests this coming Saturday in TWO different cities. I don't know if eligibility is going to change if the contest tomorrow is postponed. I really wish Winter would dial it back a notch. Or, you know, it could have been winter back in January, when winter should happen ;)

The correct move is to cancel school now. I don't know why it is difficult. It is the same thing every time you let kids gets to school, then weather hits and people are stuck, trying to checkout early, parents trying to leave work, etc...

What is the worst that could happen? The weather never gets bad and now you have them make up the snowday at the end of year like normal.

Yeah. Not that the past two events have been *that* bad, but in both cases OU canceled when the event was nearly over sending everyone out onto the already-screwed-up roads. I don't really understand the sense in that. With this coming during the morning though there may be more incentive to just cancel the entire day ahead of time.

Depending where the band sets up and how quickly the cold air advects in, I see 4-6 inches possible in a swath.

The correct move is to cancel school now. I don't know why it is difficult. It is the same thing every time you let kids gets to school, then weather hits and people are stuck, trying to checkout early, parents trying to leave work, etc...

What is the worst that could happen? The weather never gets bad and now you have them make up the snowday at the end of year like normal.
This is a huge issue at my school, and probably many others. As soon as a couple of flakes have accumulated on the roads, parents start checking their student out. At that point it is almost impossible to get anything done, because of the non-stop break in for announcements on the intercom system for so and so to report to the office to check out.

I don't see much choice but to call tomorrow off. Thursday AM may not be much better if residential streets are as bad as one might guess.

This is a huge issue at my school, and probably many others. As soon as a couple of flakes have accumulated on the roads, parents start checking their student out. At that point it is almost impossible to get anything done, because of the non-stop break in for announcements on the intercom system for so and so to report to the office to check out.

They should do it like we do it at our school. They send runners to the specific classrooms to notify the kids who are getting checked out, therefore eliminating the constant P.A. interruptions for the entire school. It works great.

Now back to the weather...(sorry, my school administrator training in me couldn't resist).

I don't see much choice but to call tomorrow off. Thursday AM may not be much better if residential streets are as bad as one might guess.

I agree but that just means it's that much more likely that school will be in session. I don't understand the reasoning of these district decision makers.

I agree but that just means it's that much more likely that school will be in session. I don't understand the reasoning of these district decision makers.

All has to do with money and Average Daily Attendance stuff. Been that way for eons. Will acknowledge, however, they seem more liberal toward closing now than back when I was in school.

New NAM is locking in on a heavy snow band somewhere from WC OK east towards Tulsa. Again, focus on the probability of a heavy band(s) occurring rather than the location.

Spitting out 4-6 inches of snow on top of whatever glaze of ice and then sleet.


Cold front right now is around Woodward, strong north winds filtering in the arctic air. Front will really get chugging late tonight.

Is there any chance of frozen precip/travel issues in OKC before 10 p.m.?

New NAM is locking in on a heavy snow band somewhere from WC OK east towards Tulsa. Again, focus on the probability of a heavy band(s) occurring rather than the location.

Spitting out 4-6 inches of snow on top of whatever glaze of ice and then sleet.


Cold front right now is around Woodward, strong north winds filtering in the arctic air. Front will really get chugging late tonight.

Any chance it just doesn't get South of I-40?

Is there any chance of frozen precip/travel issues in OKC before 10 p.m.?

Negative.

Negative.

Thank you!

New GFS takes low further south into NW TX. So snow totals are down for this run.