I second this. After today I am pretty nervous about what is to come in April and May. I hate the seasonal anxiety yang comes with springtime in Oklahoma. One thing is certain is severe weather season cannot be predicted. Just last week NewsOK ran a story predicting a slow season this year.

I suppose it is time to do the seasonal message to you Chris. If you are going to come in here with this seasonal anxiety year after year, then you need to start working on getting professional help. We've been over this many times year after year since you joined this forum, enough is enough.

Secondly, that NewsOK story had NOTHING to do with predicting a slow season. It was very poorly written, based on the source (that was quoted) which was available to read elsewhere. NWS Norman did a write up a couple weeks back how slow starts meaning absolutely nothing to the rest of the season - especially since some of the biggest seasons started off very slow.

For reference...here are the Top 10 March's on record. I'm leaving the other months on there for reference.

Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Ann. 1991 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-1991) 0 0 17 24 20 4 1 0 0 7 0 0 73 1959 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-1959) 0 2 16 3 35 1 3 5 2 2 1 0 70 2000 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-2000) 0 2 15 6 11 3 0 0 0 7 0 0 44 2008 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-2008) 4 0 13 9 42 5 0 0 2 0 1 1 77 2004 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-2004) 0 0 12 13 26 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 62 1977 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-1977) 0 1 11 4 31 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 54 1982 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-1982) 0 0 11 11 56 11 1 3 2 0 2 4 101 1961 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-1961) 0 4 10 14 42 7 3 0 1 1 0 0 82 1990 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-1990) 0 0 10 3 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 30 1987 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-1987) 0 3 9 0 5 0 1 0 1 0 4 0 23

On Highway 9, looking west towards Anadarko.

http://i.imgur.com/0qwnmkQ.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/pXRWNIb.jpg

Beautiful!!

It is a tough battle to play...at least with the early on stuff. The front had passed and they were outflow dominant, but as we were discussing in the chat, it was getting pulled back into the storm signaling very strong inflow. So the earlier spin ups, do you really warn for something that while may officially be a tornado will last for maybe 15 seconds and barely be recognizable outside of wind damage.

I would imagine they will agree that they played too conservative today. There were signs showing that things weren't going to stay totally outflow dominant and non-tornadic...but it was a tough call. Should they have pulled the trigger? Immediately as soon as KWTV had the image of the funnel near El Reno. That should have tipped them off that things were going to behave differently than normal, especially with rotation that was increasing at the time.
As I said in the chat yesterday, I completely understand and support conservative, deliberate and well-reasoned forecasting that's traditionally been NWS's strength. However, that conservative philosophy doesn't work quite as well with nowcasting, in which it's better to be safe and err on the side of warnings, especially with mounting evidence on local TV coverage and storm spotter chatter of significant rotation in those supercells despite how NWS thought those storms were "supposed" to act along the cold front. If we've learned anything in Oklahoma, it should be that the weather doesn't always act/behave the way it's "supposed" to and it can still be unpredictable and do odd things. People are depending on the NWS (apparently too much based on yesterday) to provide warnings of the very real danger of developing extreme weather conditions, even if the "official" tornado warning turns out to only be straightline wind damage — which can be just as dangerous.

I am completely disappointed in the NWS. They completely dropped the ball. Seeing these tweets line up and knowing people were injured and how many could have been killed if the tornado were just a bit stronger. I'm one of the harshest TV weather critics, and one of the biggest critics of Mike Morgan and the Drama Club, and a huge supporter and proponent of the professionals at the NWS -- and I am at a loss for words when I read the following tweets. Props to Mike Morgan and his team -- we watched at work (until the power went out) and he handled the situation very well and possibly saved many lives. It was frustrating seeing live images of the tornado sweeping near my neighborhood and the NWS refusing to issue a warning.

http://i.gyazo.com/028e24450e07a464cf05f0301d44bd7a.png
http://i.gyazo.com/c95a895ba86577426130976b3f28f467.png
http://i.gyazo.com/641737c521d9e32749714112cacaec11.png
http://i.gyazo.com/135d02435cadb449d02b16fdceb7a95d.png
http://i.gyazo.com/c566ba91257b809b5cfd72066e11a2a4.png
http://i.gyazo.com/5e7250cd17c9cc892e00d80b82d48543.png
http://i.gyazo.com/f84514c54e7e190858695578a87b1212.png

One dead and 30+ hurt in Sand Springs trailer park.

Mobile homes should not be legal in Oklahoma.
By that logic, homes and business in Moore should not be legal. In recent Oklahoma history, more damage has been done, more people injured and more lives lost due to tornadoes in Moore than in mobile homes in the state.

To take that logic even further, motor vehicles should not be legal in Oklahoma. More damage has been done, more people injured and more lives lost as a result of motor vehicle use than the destruction wreaked by acts of nature.

I am completely disappointed in the NWS. They completely dropped the ball. Seeing these tweets line up and knowing people were injured and how many could have been killed if the tornado were just a bit stronger. I'm one of the harshest TV weather critics, and one of the biggest critics of Mike Morgan and the Drama Club, and a huge supporter and proponent of the professionals at the NWS -- and I am at a loss for words when I read the following tweets. Props to Mike Morgan and his team -- we watched at work (until the power went out) and he handled the situation very well and possibly saved many lives. It was frustrating seeing live images of the tornado sweeping near my neighborhood and the NWS refusing to issue a warning.

http://i.gyazo.com/028e24450e07a464cf05f0301d44bd7a.png
http://i.gyazo.com/c95a895ba86577426130976b3f28f467.png
http://i.gyazo.com/641737c521d9e32749714112cacaec11.png
http://i.gyazo.com/135d02435cadb449d02b16fdceb7a95d.png
http://i.gyazo.com/c566ba91257b809b5cfd72066e11a2a4.png
http://i.gyazo.com/5e7250cd17c9cc892e00d80b82d48543.png
http://i.gyazo.com/f84514c54e7e190858695578a87b1212.png

Its probably a case where they saw it on TV, but were thinking it was going to be a brief spin up that would have dissipated right after they issued a Tornado warning and not stayed on the ground for several more minutes.

I imagine they will say something in the next day or two about how weak tornados are possible in many thunderstorms with little to no warning.

Not trying to excuse the delayed warnings, but it was a rather unique situation of the storm altering the boundaries. We have seen this multiple times before where supercells riding along front are actually determining where and how the front is moving.


This is a text excerpt that accompanied the watch yesterday:


REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


Again, it was very situational and I am sure they will agree that they should have erred on the side of caution (especially considered it was over populated area).

I was at work in the city where LOTS of rain fell, but my wife did not think we got much rain in Edmond. Anyone have a rain total for up Edmond way during the storms yesterday?

I was at work in the city where LOTS of rain fell, but my wife did not think we got much rain in Edmond. Anyone have a rain total for up Edmond way during the storms yesterday?

The OKC North Mesonet (probably the closest station) recorded 0.43" yesterday. Don't know if that helps you. :)

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png

Not trying to excuse the delayed warnings, but it was a rather unique situation of the storm altering the boundaries. We have seen this multiple times before where supercells riding along front are actually determining where and how the front is moving.


This is a text excerpt that accompanied the watch yesterday:



Again, it was very situational and I am sure they will agree that they should have erred on the side of caution (especially considered it was over populated area).
I generally agree with you. It was a unique situation. But THEY are supposed to be the experts who understand that better than anyone.

Right or wrong, people perceive severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings very differently. Meteorologists and serious weather enthusiasts understand that severe thunderstorms "can and occasionally do produce tornadoes"... but how many in the general public read the NWS public weather statements? They look for watches and warnings, not the details.

My fault with the NWS or perhaps their system is that when there is significant, serious rotation in the storm, I think they should err on the side of caution by issuing a tornado warning that one could drop without warning on that storm with significant rotation. I would suggest that most people hear Severe Thunderstorm Warning and think of hail, wind and heavy rainfall... most typically don't connect tornado possibility with that.

Perhaps since the NWS has modified their risk assessment scale, they should consider also modifying their tornado warning system to "tornado warning" for high risk of imminent tornado(es) with a storm and "tornado emergency" for tornado on the ground approaching populated areas. I think the NWS needs to do more in understanding public psychology. They are there to not just be scientists, but to provide practical information and warnings to the public, hopefully in understandable and usable ways for the average non-weather-enthusiast to encourage appropriate response.

Perhaps since the NWS has modified their risk assessment scale, they should consider also modifying their tornado warning system to "tornado warning" for high risk of imminent tornado(es) with a storm and "tornado emergency" for tornado on the ground approaching populated areas. I think the NWS needs to do more in understanding public psychology. They are there to not just be scientists, but to provide practical information and warnings to the public, hopefully in understandable and usable ways for the average non-weather-enthusiast to encourage appropriate response.

That is basically what the warning system we already have in place is. As for the social science side of things, I can assure you work is being done (in every-increasing amounts) in this area.

Let's be truthful though, this isn't a mistake they make often. In fact, quite the opposite. While conservative, I've found NWS to be the most reliable source of actionable information.
I don't disagree. Probably the most frustrating thing about yesterday was not only their delayed response, but their proactive commentary denying/refuting what people were seeing with their eyes on their television screens whether or not you were listening to the TV mets or storm spotters. That's the most egregious of their errors yesterday. And they've been virtually silent about that since.

It doesn't help that for the last two years they've moved from being the behind the scenes wizards behind the curtain to being much more front facing with social media and their websites. They now talk directly to many indviduals instead of relaying info to the tv weather folks to be presented.

So people are more and more looking to the NWS to be that front facing person to turn to when things go bad.

I don't know what it would but I think definitely perhaps they should look at a new category or warning or even terminology. There definitely seems to be a use case for what happened last night where you aren't sure you have a literal tornado but conditions are still bad enough whatever it is out there should be treated like a tornado.

KOCO was literally saying "THERE IS NO TORNADO" - I switch channels and the helicopter guy on channel 4 is following it, seeing debris and power flashes perfectly visible along the path. I never turned to News 9.

What disturbed me about yesterday was when the EAS warning took over the TV, just as we were watching the path of the developing tornado on the ground. For however long that warning box stayed on the screen (seemed like about a minute), we were unable to see or hear programming, change channels, or have any control whatsoever of the TV (we use Cox). Luckily we had the Internet up, and were relying on it primarily for our information anyway. I understand the need for that type of warning, but at the very least feel one should be able to make it go away immediately if they so choose.

KOCO was literally saying "THERE IS NO TORNADO" - I switch channels and the helicopter guy on channel 4 is following it, seeing debris and power flashes perfectly visible along the path. I never turned to News 9.

It sounds like the coverage on KWTV and KFOR were almost identical. Val punched the core near El Reno and followed along and saw a few really good funnels in form up and these were streamed live.

Another one of KWTV's chasers had brief spin ups out by Fort Cobb I believe...but nothing has been documented in the storm reports for yesterday yet. Not sure if that is because NWS wasn't/isn't going to acknowledge the report that was on the air, or if they need the actual spotter to file a report first. Of course it isn't that unusual for media reported tornadoes to go ignored.

Let's be truthful though, this isn't a mistake they make often. In fact, quite the opposite. While conservative, I've found NWS to be the most reliable source of actionable information.

I completely agree with you. But as said above, to continually refute information being shown on live TV. Was incredibly dangerous. They should have tweeted:

"Local TV stations reporting tornado over SW OKC / Moore. Issuing tornado warning while we investigate/confirm. Take shelter as precaution. #okwx"

I completely agree with you. But as said above, to continually refute information being shown on live TV. Was incredibly dangerous. They should have tweeted:

"Local TV stations reporting tornado over SW OKC / Moore. Issuing tornado warning while we investigate/confirm. Take shelter as precaution. #okwx"

I'm not disagreeing that the warning should have gone out earlier, already said as much. I just think we also need to take a step back and gain some perspective. The uproar on social media today (and tonight) is incredible. I stop to think how many times they've nailed things perfectly and how little of a reaction is got from people, they miss one call (timing wise) in a crazy setup and everyone wants their head.

Yes we had aerial coverage showing the various tornado vortices on the ground. Early reports from the damage surveys is that the tornado damage is very highly covered up in damage from RFD. Had this not been Oklahoma City, chances are it never would have been tornado warned. Mixing the situation with heavy rain, blowing dust from high winds and the RFD doing damage...many ground spotters would never see it. It would have been a situation of identifying tornado damage after the fact.

My fear from all of this is that we are now going to enter a period of tornado warnings going out too proactively when they really shouldn't. Norman's criteria tends to be a bit more specific warning wise compared to someone like Cleveland. Granted we would have been lucky to have any warning at all if this was in Cleveland's area. Seriously. A lot of other offices will pull the trigger on rotation- here they really wait until ground verification or reports verifying the signs that a tornado is very probable.

End of the call, the missed opportunity to get the warning out should have been when the first funnel was observed in the storm. I wasn't watching KFOR, but KWTV had it fairly early in Canadian County. To me this says the storm has enough organization to produce and the way it was interacting with the boundary, you pull the trigger on the warning.

One other take away from yesterday was Payne's coverage. I thought it was overall reasonable. However, I was extremely unhappy with his usage of the "tornado emergency" wording for the tornado in Moore. That is extremely strong wording reserved for a violent tornado going through a populated area. Yes, the media went ahead and did their own tornado warnings yesterday...but stop there. They are already muddying the waters ignoring the SPC risk outlooks and using their own.

Yea I watched the video of Payne saying "tornado emergency" and cringed. A tornado emergency is reserved for those times where there is a potentially mass life-taking and damaging event.

It sounds like KFOR and KWTV (sans tornado emergency) nailed it. Instead of bashing the NWS, give props to the usual victims of bashing.


Also it was discussed briefly in chat yesterday, but OKC sometimes forgets how spoiled we are. When tuning into the news coverage with the supercell in Tulsa, it was clear as day how rookie or amateur their technology, mets, and chasers are - relative to OKC.

Also it was discussed briefly in chat yesterday, but OKC sometimes forgets how spoiled we are. When tuning into the news coverage with the supercell in Tulsa, it was clear as day how rookie or amateur their technology, mets, and chasers are - relative to OKC.

It's amazing that 90 miles can make that big of a difference. My brother lives up in Tulsa and he echoed the same thing.

I wonder how much of the misuse of the verbiage and using their own category system for risk comes from the fact that, minus Damon Lane, most of the other head mets from the local stations rarely (if ever) make appearances at training classes put on by NWS? I only see their assistant mets there. Just a thought.

Also it was discussed briefly in chat yesterday, but OKC sometimes forgets how spoiled we are. When tuning into the news coverage with the supercell in Tulsa, it was clear as day how rookie or amateur their technology, mets, and chasers are - relative to OKC.

DFW is the same way. OKC mets, because of their experience, have devoted the resources to enhancing their coverage during severe weather events. Tulsa and DFW do not have the same frequency of these events (though they are just as likely to occur there as in central OK) and it shows when you watch their live footage. I don't know about Wichita or Kansas City, are they any better? OKC stations are in their own class here.

Colorado gets a lot of tornadoes but the TV media practically ignores them because they are usually weak and rarely threaten populated centers i.e. the Denver metro.

DFW is the same way. OKC mets, because of their experience, have devoted the resources to enhancing their coverage during severe weather events. Tulsa and DFW do not have the same frequency of these events (though they are just as likely to occur there as in central OK) and it shows when you watch their live footage. I don't know about Wichita or Kansas City, are they any better? OKC stations are in their own class here.

Correct. OKC is in a class all by itself in terms of frequency of high-end severe events. DFW and Tulsa are still at risk, but statistically the risk in those areas is significantly lower than in OKC because it isn't as frequent. This is especially true for DFW. I am not sure about Wichita but Kansas City's reporting is similar to Tulsa, DFW, Little Rock, etc, and is not near as detailed as OKC's.

I don't know. Seems nws has turned into a "nowcast" than a forecast. The last couple of years they've seemed to be very slow with updates, whether it be winter or spring.

I've vented enough on NWS Norman's bad play-calling yesterday. Except I have yet to see (and I could have missed it) any kind of explanation or mea culpa about what was going on with them.

I can respect reserving "tornado emergency" for the most dire circumstances... but I would hope that NWS would give serious consideration to how to modify their criteria or their language to allow for instances like yesterday, where it was obvious that the storm was unusual and showing signs of trying to tornado, to send out some sort of warning that people need to pay special attention to that storm from a tornado standpoint. Many take different precautions and have different responses to a severe thunderstorm warning and a tornado warning. That's all I'm saying. Think about how the average person responds to it.

Venture and Anon, I highly respect your opinion, perspective, knowledge and expertise. I'm not trying to be overly critical of NWS. In fact, I've been a supporter of the local office generally. Yesterday, and specifically the arrogance on social media, really left a bad taste in my mouth and did a disservice to the public they are paid to serve.

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com did a study on the most unpredictable weather in the US. Kansas City edged out OKC for number one, but if you look at the specifics for severe weather, Tulsa and Wichita and Dallas are very close to OKC in the ranking, differing only by one point on the scale.

Which City Has The Most Unpredictable Weather? | FiveThirtyEight (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-city-has-the-most-unpredictable-weather/)

The OKC North Mesonet (probably the closest station) recorded 0.43" yesterday. Don't know if that helps you. :)

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png

Yes, thanks, I too saw the Mesonet total, but I was hoping for someone's backyard rain gauge measurement. I should probably just get one then I wouldn't waste anyone's time here! :)

Any new updated info about the storms for next week? Just trying to start preliminary planning for the next round of severe weather.

Any new updated info about the storms for next week? Just trying to start preliminary planning for the next round of severe weather.

Still chance for one or two days next week...nothing in stone. Stop worrying. :)

Those pics out of Sand Springs are incredible. Had no idea it was that bad up there til I saw news tonight. Kids in that dance studio very lucky. Glad it wasn't worse.

Still chance for one or two days next week...nothing in stone. Stop worrying. :)

I am not worrying, just wanting to start getting things lined out for tracking them in and I have people I keep updated with regards to the weather. So it is not me worrying about the storms it is me doing my preperational studying of the upcoming setup etc. Thanks Guys!!

Preliminary information is that there were multiple tornadoes through OKC and Moore, and we should have that number by early next week. Strongest damage area would rate as a high end EF1.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image6.jpg

Yes, thanks, I too saw the Mesonet total, but I was hoping for someone's backyard rain gauge measurement. I should probably just get one then I wouldn't waste anyone's time here! :)

Oh, you know, I'm not sure why I didn't think of this earlier but we can check the CoCoRAHS reports. Here they are for Oklahoma County:

http://www.cocorahs.org/Maps/GetMap.aspx?state=OK&county=OK&type=precip&date=03/26/2015&cp=0

Sand Springs tornado, which killed one person, rated an EF-2.

March 25, 2015 Severe Weather (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weather-event_2015mar25)

Glimpse ahead with the 06Z GFS (12Z isn't out yet)...

Still looking like we will be in this cycle of storm chances going up early-mid week, then down at the end of the week and back up...for probably 2 more weeks at least. It is Spring after all, so this could set in for awhile.

So quiet from now until Sunday, then a chance of storms SE OK. Severe risk very low.
Monday - Maybe a storm or two south of I-40, severe risk very low.
Tuesday - More widespread showers or storms, marginal severe risk.
Wednesday - Strong cap, but much higher instability. If any storms form, severe weather possible, but not locked in at all.
Thursday - Maybe a storm or two far SE OK, severe risk low.

Next Friday & Saturday - calm.
Sunday the 4th - Maybe a couple storms West and Central, severe risk low, otherwise quiet.
Monday - Maybe a couple storms again along/southeast of I-44, severe risk low.
Tuesday - Rain possible, severe risk low.
Wednesday - Storms possible, eastern OK, possible severe.
Thursday - More storms possible East, low severe risk.
Quiet from that following Friday through Sunday.

Confidence of course drops significantly the farther out the forecast goes. Use this as a guide, but it will change significantly as we get with in 2-4 days of a specific day.

For those who are interested, I think this is a great and easy-to-understand writeup about the small scale conditions that contributed to the Moore tornado. Definitely a must read.

The science behind the Oklahoma and Arkansas tornadoes of March 25, 2015 | United States Tornadoes (http://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/03/27/the-science-behind-the-oklahoma-and-arkansas-tornadoes-of-march-25-2015/)

For those who are interested, I think this is a great and easy-to-understand writeup about the small scale conditions that contributed to the Moore tornado. Definitely a must read.

The science behind the Oklahoma and Arkansas tornadoes of March 25, 2015 | United States Tornadoes (http://www.ustornadoes.com/2015/03/27/the-science-behind-the-oklahoma-and-arkansas-tornadoes-of-march-25-2015/)

That is REALLY good! Thanks.

Yes, thanks, I too saw the Mesonet total, but I was hoping for someone's backyard rain gauge measurement. I should probably just get one then I wouldn't waste anyone's time here! :)

Get a rain gauge, and it will always be interesting to see how much less or more your measurements are compared to everyone else's.

I second this. After today I am pretty nervous about what is to come in April and May. I hate the seasonal anxiety yang comes with springtime in Oklahoma. One thing is certain is severe weather season cannot be predicted. Just last week NewsOK ran a story predicting a slow season this year.

I deal with storm anxiety by living in a house for the past 10 years where one of the closets is a safe room. Since then, I have thankfully not become frightened enough during storm conditions to actually use it for that purpose. But I'm sure as hell headed for it during a tornado warning should the electricity suddenly go off and/or hear a roar.

I also pray during tornado warnings. My friend does, too. It seems to work. One tornado headed straight for town had just lifted back into the clouds when it arrived. Another tornado chose to carve a path through a rural area from SW to NE while staying just a mile or two from city limits. It hit the large home of my dentist, though, and caused much roof damage.

As advertised all last week, severe weather chances return. Officially we have a Marginal Risk for Central and Southern Oklahoma on Tuesday. Then there is a 15% Severe Risk (if it sticks, this translates to a Slight) for Thursday across the Eastern half of OK.

Marginal Risk issued for this afternoon/evening for SE OK.

...SERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MID-SOUTH...
THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
50S-LOWER-60S SFC DEWPOINTS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN TX.
PREFRONTAL SFC SLYS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY INFLUX OF
SIMILAR MOISTURE TOWARD THE RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF AN EML SAMPLED BY THE 12Z OUN AND FWD RAOBS WILL LIKELY KEEP
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MINIMAL DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE INTERCEPTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODEST RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORABLY COINCIDENT WITH
GLANCING DCVA/FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...TO ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAXIMUM AUGMENTING
FRONT-PRECEDING WAA ALONG A LLJ /STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING PBL LAYER AND
PERHAPS UNDERCUTTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR YIELDING ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES /POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7-8 C/KM SAMPLED BY 12Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...WITH SIMILAR VALUES
SPREADING EWD WITH TIME...NORMALIZED CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST -- IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
SHEAR -- FOR ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO IS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE
CONVECTION-PERMITTING MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WARRANTS THE UPGRADE TO
MARGINAL-RISK DELINEATION.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND
THE PROPENSITY FOR INCREASING CELL INTERACTIONS TO EVENTUALLY IMPEDE
INDIVIDUAL-CELL INFLOW IN THIS REGIME OF BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP
FLOW...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.

Here are the SPC risks for the week...

Today - General Storms, possibly marginal svr risk late tonight over Southeast OK.

Tuesday - Marginal Risk for nearly the entire state, except for Northern counties. Possible upgrade to Slight Risk if more forcing appears likely. Right now we'll be unstable but there just won't be any major lift contributor to focus storms in any particular area.

Wednesday - Marginal Risk west of line from Ponca City to El Reno to Frederick. Chance for a couple grumpy storms to get going along the dryline later in the day.

Thursday - 15% Risk (translates to Slight in Days 1-3) for all of Central and Eastern OK. Triple point setup, strong low level jet expected by evening, and high instability. This could very well be the main day this week for severe weather.

Rest of the week/weekend look mostly quiet.

Thursday - 15% Risk (translates to Slight in Days 1-3) for all of Central and Eastern OK. Triple point setup, strong low level jet expected by evening, and high instability. This could very well be the main day this week for severe weather.

Ummmmm.... NO! ..... You have to change this one... This is supposed to be the first night of my offices weekly Thursday night golf group.... Severe weather is completely unnacceptable! ;)

Ummmmm.... NO! ..... You have to change this one... This is supposed to be the first night of my offices weekly Thursday night golf group.... Severe weather is completely unnacceptable! ;)

I know there is a pun for golf ball sized hail somewhere here.

I know there is a pun for golf ball sized hail somewhere here.

After hearing reports of golf ball size hail last week I had told the wife I was headed out to grab my pitching wedge to get some practice in.

Instead we ended up diving in the storm shelter we had installed on March 18th when David Payne started yelling about a tornado on the ground at 12th Street in Moore.

Western Oklahoma upgrades to a Slight Risk for tomorrow.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA
NEAR 120W...DRIFTING SEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO EJECT EWD TUESDAY WITH NRN PORTIONS OF
DEAMPLIFYING LOW EXPECTED NEAR THE BIG BEND OF WEST TX BY 01/00Z.
WHILE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TX...MODEST SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SRN
OK. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
FOCUSED/SIGNIFICANT...STRONG HEATING ALONG DRY LINE SHOULD EASILY
REMOVE INHIBITION SUCH THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 22Z.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG DRY LINE ACROSS EXTREME SWRN OK INTO NWRN
TX SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S...POSSIBLY
TO NEAR 90F IF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY THIN. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BREACHED AND SBCAPE SHOULD BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG. ANALOGS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL COULD BE NOTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND THIS IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROPAGATE
SEWD ALONG/NEAR WARM FRONT INTO NONDESCRIPT LLJ ON THE ORDER OF
15KT.

Welcome to Severe Weather Season Week 2...

We have three days of severe weather this week. We should see a smattering of everything week to add up to our storm report totals for the week in all three columns. Nothing very upper end this week, but Thursday is probably the most concerning of all three days. So here we go...

Tuesday
One of the warmest days of the season for many areas, with temps well into the 80s and near 90 in spots. Instability will be high to very high over much of the state, but that also comes with relatively little forcing over much of the state. So a lot of it will go to waste if you will. Map below is for 7PM Tuesday with the dryline drawn on and I highlighted an area that I would find to be most favorable tomorrow. Good convergence along the projected bulge area of the dryline should spark storms there. Elsewhere we are going to watch for locations getting above the convective temp to allow the high to rise enough to a few isolated storms to go away from the boundary. 00Z NAM has storms firing by late afternoon along the dryline and also a few isolated storms in South Central OK. It continues to bring storms east through the evening into Central OK after 9PM. Main threat tomorrow is going to be large hail.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/30-1.PNG

Wednesday

Wednesday is going to be a pretty marginal day with some instability, decent moisture, but just not a lot to get things going it appears. This can all change especially if we get some good left over boundaries from Tuesday's storms. Right now it appears to be mostly isolated storms along the dryline and scattered about where enough lift manages to fire something off. Main threat hail.

Thursday

It all comes down to timing and how fast the front and dryline push through. 00Z pushes this into the Metro by early afternoon. GFS is a hair slower with the front, but blasts the dryline east of I-35 by mid afternoon. Out ahead of the boundaries the atmosphere will be highly unstable and plenty of lift to get storms fired off. We'll probably see a familiar setup of a squall line along the front, and sups around the dryline. Conditions seem pretty favorable for wind and hail along the front. Near the triple point that will be moving through Central OK will be the most likely area for rotating storms and the associated very large hail and tornado threat.

Looking ahead...break for Friday & Saturday - mostly - and then main chances for storms again on Sunday and Monday. Then another break until probably Thursday. Welcome to Spring.

SPC slight risk for basically southern half of OK for this evening. Doesn't look terribly exciting, but could get some good hailers out of any discrete cells.

HRRR really wants to get storms going in the next hour or two over South Central OK and then fire Western OK by mid afternoon.

12Z NAM coming in substantially slower with boundary movement on Thursday. It has front/dryline about 40 miles further west by mid afternoon instead of out past Shawnee.

Area of CU where we could see a few storms go up early in Southern OK...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/31-1.PNG

Narrow cloud deck overhead Central OK should burn off soon.

New SPC Outlook moves SLIGHT risk zone further north, now encompasses about northern 3/4 of OK, and an added 2% tornado area in S OK. Highest hail risk is around I-40 and to the south.

I would REALLY like a peaceful Thursday evening...family outing downtown. Really don't want to dodge hailstones in downtown OKC...

Man, seems the rumbly weather is catching up with a vengeance.....(grumble)

Day 2 outlook expanded as well. Slight Risk now covers NW OK. Marginal risk covers the entire state except SE and the PH.

Temps approaching the convective temperatures in the Southwest. Expect storms to fire in the next 2 hours and move east. Most likely area for the Metro is after 9PM, but we also have developing CU around here and could get an isolated storm to go.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0163.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0163
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX/FAR
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 312027Z - 312230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR INCREASING SIGNS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN OK AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF NORTH TX/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AT LEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION.
LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MID-AFTERNOON SHOWS AN
INCREASINGLY DEEP CU FIELD PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK...WITH OTHER/NEWER CU NOTED AS FAR WEST
AS KIOWA COUNTY OK. THIS WEST-EAST CORRIDOR ROUGHLY COINCIDES WITH A
WIND SHIFT AND ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT
CONTINUED HEATING/WEAK MASS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH GIVEN
WEAKER-CALIBER FORCING MECHANISMS...THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS
FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND/OR
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT NORTH TX. IN VICINITY
OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE...THAT IS WHERE DEEPER MIXING /HIGH-BASED CU
NOTED ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/ WILL COINCIDE WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLIES/SOMEWHAT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEAR/NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS VIRTUALLY NIL AND THE BOUNDARY IS QUITE
UNSTABLE.

WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS SAMPLING VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /IN
EXCESS OF 8C PER KM/...80S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES/LOWER 60S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OK AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT NORTH-CENTRAL TX. WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM AGL WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT WHERE STORMS DO
FORM...ADEQUATE VEERING/STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 35 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL.

KOCO is going strong storms moving into OKC around 9PM, for tonight, on their Storm Predictor. Shows a bow echo line just west of Oklahoma County and then another large cluster of storms between Pauls Valley and Ardmore.

Thoughts, Venture?

Starting to see CU towers going up fast over the Panhandle...in the green. The area in blue is starting to build now as well with us approaching peak heating.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/31-3.PNG

That is pretty much what NAM and RAP are showing. A cluster of some sort coming out of SW OK and into C and S OK tonight.

Watch county notification for watch 11
national weather service norman ok
357 pm cdt tue mar 31 2015

okc005-009-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-045-049-
051-055-057-063-065-067-069-075-085-087-095-099-109-123-125-129-
133-137-141-149-010300-
/o.new.koun.sv.a.0011.150331t2100z-150401t0300z/

the national weather service has issued severe thunderstorm watch
11 in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening for the following areas

in oklahoma this watch includes 35 counties

in central oklahoma

canadian cleveland grady
mcclain oklahoma pottawatomie

in east central oklahoma

pontotoc seminole

in northwest oklahoma

blaine dewey ellis

in southeast oklahoma

atoka bryan coal
hughes johnston marshall

in southern oklahoma

carter garvin jefferson
love murray stephens

in southwest oklahoma

caddo comanche cotton
greer harmon jackson
kiowa tillman

in western oklahoma

beckham custer roger mills
wa****a

this includes the cities of...ada...altus...anadarko...ardmore...
Arnett...atoka...cheyenne...chickasha...clinton... coalgate...
Cordell...duncan...durant...el reno...elk city...frederick...
Hobart...holdenville...hollis...lawton...madill... mangum...
Marietta...moore...mustang...norman...oklahoma city...
Pauls valley...purcell...sayre...seminole...shawnee...su lphur...
Taloga...tishomingo...walters...watonga...waurika. ..
Weatherford and yukon.

Panhandle blowing up pretty good now.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/31-4.PNG