Here is what we currently have.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/3-4-img1.png

Area in pink is the mix of sleet/snow and whatever else over us now. This small area has been growing some, but should focus most of its impact on the Southeastern half of the Metro area. For those that are new, when I say Metro or Metro area...I don't mean just Oklahoma City. I'm talking the entire 9-county metropolitan area. :) So the pink area is mostly going to impact those along/south of I-44...but also mostly south of I-40 until it gets east of Shawnee and continues to lift NE. Some areas could see some pretty moderate sleet or freezing rain in pockets - especially from Pauls Valley and south.

The next big feature is the massive snow band in blue (granted the southern half of this in Texas is actually rain, but it won't be for us). As the storm pushes east, so will this. I will say there are still some questions on just how much snow this will actually produce over the area. Looking at the latest runs of the short term models, they are all junk. They aren't handling on going precip very well at all. The main fly in the ointment here is going to be that area just to the east of the snow band - that is a lot of dry air. There are some isolated areas of precip attempting to saturate that area, so it might eventually fill in. It very well could eat up the snow band and keep things relatively calm.

With that said - are roads going to get terrible soon? I wouldn't say they'll be hazardous for the next couple hours as the dry slot is pushing in. Keep in mind that in these dry slots we can still get decent freezing drizzle that can ice things up decently. Just pay attention and if the road starts to appear a little wet, just ease off the gas a little and don't make any sudden lane changes or start/stops - especially on elevated surfaces.

Yea the dry air destroyed the sleet bands all over SW to C OK in about two beam passes.

I think with the added lift when the storm system starts ramping up, we will see a period of heavy snow in this same area we have a dry pocket right now.

Yea the dry air destroyed the sleet bands all over SW to C OK in about two beam passes.

I think with the added lift when the storm system starts ramping up, we will see a period of heavy snow in this same area we have a dry pocket right now.

I love your wishful thinking. :)

Haha, yea I will admit I have snow goggles, but I am also realistic in my thinking with this. I know it seems crazy now, but at 8PM we'll see who is smiling.

better shot at delayed starts tomorrow then right?

Even though the metro is clearly in a dry slot or pocket on radar...we are still getting light sleet in the NW metro. It's very fine...but it is sleet as it bouces on my hood as it hits.

Another radar update...

The dry slot starting to give way to a new area of precip that is developing from Tuttle back towards Anadarko and Apache. The area is increasing some of the last 10-15 minutes. Also see more snow reports come i now around the northwest Metro area and up to Guthrie.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/4-2.png

At this point, it looks like a bust for OKC proper. Nothing at all in downtown thus far (a bit of spitty rain and wind). My husband on NW Expressway reports same.

This dry slot better get out of here, because social media is about to burn down every OKC and Tulsa met's home! lol

For the sake of the weathermen (and women) ... something better happen soon since just about everyone CLOSED for a hyped-up winter storm. Cry wolf too many times, ya know.

It seems like we get a new weather phrase every year - this year's is "dry slot". Im sure it has been around but it's the one i claim to have added to my vocab this year!:o

For the sake of the weathermen (and women) ... something better happen soon since just about everyone CLOSED for a hyped-up winter storm. Cry wolf too many times, ya know.

Well, I will say that my school stayed open the last two times we got hit by a mid-day snow event. Driving home both times was a nightmare (though last Monday was definitely worse) and so many kids were checked out by noon-2pm, having class was pointless. With only 3-4 kids in a class, there was no instruction happening that day. They told us this was going to happen earlier in the day and impact us while we were in working/school hours, so I can see where administrators would get anxious about having kids and teachers get stuck at school in an ice event. It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.

I will say it's hilarious looking at my students posting on Twitter about how we shouldn't have taken a snow day. But if they were there and two sleet pellets fell to the ground, they would all be whining to go home. Again, damned do/damned don't.

We were supposed to have band contest today. I was upset at first, but looking at our alt dates next week, with mid 60s and sunny skies, somehow I think I'll manage.

For the sake of the weathermen (and women) ... something better happen soon since just about everyone CLOSED for a hyped-up winter storm. Cry wolf too many times, ya know.


This dry slot better get out of here, because social media is about to burn down every OKC and Tulsa met's home! lol

:Smiley122

as much as i hate snow and am ready for warmer weather and spring, i did stay home from work today because of the general agreement among channel 4, 5, & 9. At this point i need some snow to help justify my decision in my own mind. Monday of last week it took over an hour to get home from work and i left plenty early. Not necessarily because the roads were bad, which they were kind of, but the fact that so many idiots cannot drive on this stuff. On one hand there is the guy in a front wheel drive car driving 10 miles per hour, the other extreme is the idiot in the 4x2 pickup truck who still thinks he can drive 60 mph. Saw a lot of scary stuff to say the least. Go ahead and snow! And i hope to God its the last time this season!!

Dry slot choked off the band I was mentioning in my last post. NWS Norman keeps updating their forecast...and increasing snowfall amounts.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image8.jpg

New WRF that is out paints locations with over 6 inches in the SW part of the state (where it has been dryslotted all day).

Perhaps schools could have been in session today, as it looks like the main show will start later this afternoon into this evening. But not a single model predicted the storm to move this slowly and a dry slot to be filtered along the entire I-44 corridor.

Abilene's radar being down does not help with this storm, it is difficult to see how well precip is developing ahead of the main low.


This is not over yet, folks.

HAHA.... We had one employee that called in this morning and said it was already icy and treacherous at his home in Yukon at 7:30 this morning so he wouldn't be coming to work....... Oops! :rolleyes:

haha.... We had one employee that called in this morning and said it was already icy and treacherous at his home in yukon at 7:30 this morning so he wouldn't be coming to work....... Oops! :rolleyes:

busted!

There are crazy people out there who hear what they want to hear and will complain about anything at the drop of a hat, but it seems like at least some of the backlash could be mitigated if local mets did a better job of communicating the possibility that conditions could occur where a storm is either delayed or never occurs at all.

So the update from NWS about 15 minutes ago is that they expect the dry slot to fill in between 3 and 4 as more moisture moves in.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/4-3.PNG

You would think it was a severe weather day in May. ;)

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/4-3.PNG

You would think it was a severe weather day in May. ;)

Haha, or what they think is a busted forecast.

Image from the Frederick radar to give a look at the area where our precip will come from. You can see the one band/area of of precip filling in and moving NE from around the Norman area where we now have snow falling back to the south along/east of I-44 until the TX line. Then you see some heavier echoes showing up from Wichita Falls back through Seymour TX. Then you have our dryslot in the middle which is starting to get pinched off on the southern end finally. Light to moderate snow band is moving east slowly just west of the dry slot. So we definitely aren't done, we just need for this precip to actual overcome the dryslot and then we are in business.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/4-4.png

NWS Norman apparently can't make up their mind. Removed the 3+ area over the South Metro.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image8.jpg

There are crazy people out there who hear what they want to hear and will complain about anything at the drop of a hat, but it seems like at least some of the backlash could be mitigated if local mets did a better job of communicating the possibility that conditions could occur where a storm is either delayed or never occurs at all.

I think the issue is people don't want to hear that. They want a concrete schedule of what the weather will be like and aren't too interested in hearing about all the different factors that weigh in on a forecast and can change it hour by hour. I think a TV met who constantly flip flops as the models change would be received worse than a met who picks a forecast and is only occasionally off the mark a bit. Even here we have people who keep trying to get the info they're given pared down to "it will rain exactly this much at this time at this specific location" when, of course, it just doesn't work like that.

It's going to be funny when everyone in the dryslot today ends up with the highest snowfall totals.

ignorethissorrynevermind

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/4-3.PNG

You would think it was a severe weather day in May. ;)

Naah, very few get upset when a severe WX forecast goes south. With snow, I think it goes back to when we were all kids hoping for snow.

Which is why people should just come to this thread.

We don't have viewers to please and ratings to sustain. We don't have a 10-day with cloud and sun graphics. We don't have vague percentages and a 'bus stop forecast'. I love this thread because it is about the models and science involved in forecasting. We are able to post constantly in a time of ever changing conditions. We don't have set schedules to deliver the weather forecast.

We are simply here reporting on the data we see coming in and add our own analysis that is often based upon experience.

We definitely know by now, you can't get them all right - but when you do, the bust-pitchforkers sure get quiet ;)

which is why people should just come to this thread.

We don't have viewers to please and ratings to sustain. We don't have a 10-day with cloud and sun graphics. We don't have vague percentages and a 'bus stop forecast'. I love this thread because it is about the models and science involved in forecasting. We are able to post constantly in a time of ever changing conditions. We don't have set schedules to deliver the weather forecast.

We are simply here reporting on the data we see coming in and add our own analysis that is often based upon experience.

We definitely know by now, you can't get them all right - but when you do, the bust-pitchforkers sure get quiet ;)

boom!

Oklahoma being in the position it's in geographically makes things significantly harder to predict for does it not? So many more factors affecting our state from what I understand.

Which is why people should just come to this thread.

We don't have viewers to please and ratings to sustain. We don't have a 10-day with cloud and sun graphics. We don't have vague percentages and a 'bus stop forecast'. I love this thread because it is about the models and science involved in forecasting. We are able to post constantly in a time of ever changing conditions. We don't have set schedules to deliver the weather forecast.

We are simply here reporting on the data we see coming in and add our own analysis that is often based upon experience.

We definitely know by now, you can't get them all right - but when you do, the bust-pitchforkers sure get quiet ;)

http://0.media.collegehumor.cvcdn.com/82/61/f5657ea6e8a5225a9c0c692817d5bf5c-micdrop07.gif

Which is why people should just come to this thread.

We don't have viewers to please and ratings to sustain. We don't have a 10-day with cloud and sun graphics. We don't have vague percentages and a 'bus stop forecast'. I love this thread because it is about the models and science involved in forecasting. We are able to post constantly in a time of ever changing conditions. We don't have set schedules to deliver the weather forecast.

We are simply here reporting on the data we see coming in and add our own analysis that is often based upon experience.

We definitely know by now, you can't get them all right - but when you do, the bust-pitchforkers sure get quiet ;)

This is why this thread is my go to for weather

Latest Update....

Heavy band of sleet/snow developing now from Purcell SW to Marlow...Walters...and near Wichita Falls. Movement is generally Northeast. Should be in Norman in about an hour. Further to the SW the dry slot continues to fill in over North Texas, so we keep trending towards precip finally starting to fall - on a consistent basis.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/4-5.png

man if that dry slot was never there today, we could have seen some hefty snowfall totals it seems

what's the deal for tomorrow, sunny right off the bat in the morning?

Latest Update....

Heavy band of sleet/snow developing now from Purcell SW to Marlow...Walters...and near Wichita Falls. Movement is generally Northeast. Should be in Norman in about an hour. Further to the SW the dry slot continues to fill in over North Texas, so we keep trending towards precip finally starting to fall - on a consistent basis.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/4-5.png

Or....it will fall apart right before reaching OKC. NOBODY KNOWS.






something like that right? :)

I am one who always comes here for weather info. What I read here is much more trustworthy than what I hear on television. Thanks for putting in the time and effort to keep us informed. You all are appreciated!:D

Kudos to Venture, Anom, and everyone else who contributes to this thread with great info. So glad to have this resource, seriously.

Radar update....

Side by side of the radars at Frederick (left) and Twin Lakes (right). You can see how the dry air is keep a lot of heavy moisture from falling in the area I have circled. The FDX radar shows moderate precip, the TLX radar has very little. I will say as I am typing this, snow fall is picking up rapidly now in Norman so it is start to punch through.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/4-6.PNG

So is this now infamous "dry slot" an unusual thing or does it happen a lot with winter storms?

There are two words I have learned here and have come to hate
"dry slot"
"heat dome"

There are two words I have learned here and have come to hate
"dry slot"
"heat dome"

Do i hear "polar vortex"?

Looks like the dry slot is trying to give way, no?
10295

So is this now infamous "dry slot" an unusual thing or does it happen a lot with winter storms?

Dry slot is very common with winter storms.

I remember about five years back a big winter storm spun up around Christmas" but got "dry slotted" and ended up being a feint as thus one has become so far. Just more fun in forecasting winter weather in Oklahoma!

Light snow falling far NW OKC now...flakes are actually somewhat sizeable.

I have never seen the HRRR perform as poorly as it has today. Totally useless.

Nice snow ongoing out NW. Sara and Hefner.

Moderate snow with some blowing in Norman, visibility probably about a half mile at best.

Looks like it finally made to NW OKC. Now how much is the question?

Downtown OKC still high and apparently, dry-slotted. Not a drop, flake or pellet.

I love watching the snow blowing off the roofs. Snow is trying to stick to roads here.

Downtown OKC still high and apparently, dry-slotted. Not a drop, flake or pellet.

Not true. Light snow has been falling for a while in downtown

Snowing pretty now in SW OKC. Dryslot be darned. ;)

Listening to the news this afternoon, for whatever reason some think the snow will be lightening up by 6PM. Not really sure I'm buying that based on the bands out there. We have the one moderate/heavy snow band setting up now along I-44 from the south Metro down to Frederick. Another moderate/heavy snow band from Kingfisher back through Hollis and Mangum to Childress.

Not true. Light snow has been falling for a while in downtown

Not outside my window.

Edited: Scratch that. Noticeable precip coming down now. Doesn't look exactly like snow, at least not flaky snow.

I will say this, this is(was) the most impressive and local dryslot I have ever seen in my life. That is not an exaggeration. I have never seen something that persistent over the same fine, localized area.

I will say this, this is(was) the most impressive and local dryslot I have ever seen in my life. That is not an exaggeration. I have never seen something that persistent over the same fine, localized area.

Right? I kept watching and hoping all day from downtown. It's become a joke. People sent me radar images of that donut hole of nothing surrounded by winter precip with a red X in the middle superimposed over my initials. "You are here. Snow is not."

As soon as I headed home, it was like Moses pulling back the staff...the seas closed in.

It's like the air wasn't just dry, it anthropomorphized into thirsty!

Next batch of MDT/HVY snow moving up into the south metro.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-03/4-8.PNG

Another updated snowfall forecast from NWS Norman...

https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/11026020_899016540119274_7147641011109742845_n.jpg ?oh=241cd7fc38869cf697a59a758a0ac64e&oe=557F2A5B&__gda__=1434059569_1ab63d8874d2eacc4e9a25525b4a3d7 8

Wow, if we are going to get to the 2-3 inch mark it had better ramp up.