Cold front is here in C OK. Time to watch this all unfold.

So is the cold front ahead of schedule? Does this mean higher snow/freezing rain/sleet totals for the metro and points south?

Can some,anyone give us the scoop on this storm? I have heard anywhere from 12 inches of snow to nothing over the last 24 hours,seriously.

Can some,anyone give us the scoop on this storm? I have heard anywhere from 12 inches of snow to nothing over the last 24 hours,seriously.

Who told you 12 inches? Source?

The discussion here and the NWS have been pretty clear. Looks like rain changing over to 1/4-1/2" of sleet throughout the day tomorrow and changing to snow tomorrow afternoon that should last through the evening, accumulating 1-3" with locally higher amounts possible.

Well someone on the radio (one of the local TV guys that does radio forecasts) said if all precip coming in was in the form of snow it would = 12+/- inches. So he didn't exactly predict 12 inches of snow because he did say it would prob go from rain to sleet to ice to snow.

00Z NAM is falling inline with 18Z GFS. Taking the low on a more southerly track into NW TX. NAM every run before this was taking the low from N TX PH across OK then shooting it off to the NE.

This latest data is showing low coming from N TX PH and NW OK south into NW TX, then shredding it off to the E across N TX and into SE OK and AR (where it really gets cranking). This would really put the Dallas area in a pretty bad spot tomorrow night.


Going to have to see how GFS does tonight, but the takeaway is perhaps less precip. north, more south.

EDIT: Decided to put my own thoughts about the data.

I want to say not to read into single runs too much, If the low sinks south across NW TX and then tracks to the NE across OK, we could have some heavy snow banding setup across the center of the state. Taking a combination of the models last few runs, would produce this exact scenario, because between the northern solutions and southerly, the I-44 corridor lies in between. Again this is just my personal take on the data, but I have a lot of free time at the moment so I am analyzing every single run.

When in doubt, just watch the radar and you will see what is going to happen.

Hell, I really wanted to be able to know whether or not we had to get up tomorrow morning at 6:00 a.m. to get ready for school. Drat this uncertain winter weather!

In all seriousness, thanks to those of you who spend a great deal of your time posting the real stuff for us. As a result, I've completely quit watching the local weather. I just come here and know that it's the best of the best! The only time I watch the locals is to see them freaking out during tornado season (e.g., the sequined ties).

Double-post.

00Z NAM is falling inline with 18Z GFS. Taking the low on a more southerly track into NW TX. NAM every run before this was taking the low from N TX PH across OK then shooting it off to the NE.

This latest data is showing low coming from N TX PH and NW OK south into NW TX, then shredding it off to the E across N TX and into SE OK and AR (where it really gets cranking). This would really put the Dallas area in a pretty bad spot tomorrow night.


Going to have to see how GFS does tonight, but the takeaway is perhaps less precip. north, more south.

EDIT: Decided to put my own thoughts about the data.

I want to say not to read into single runs too much, If the low sinks south across NW TX and then tracks to the NE across OK, we could have some heavy snow banding setup across the center of the state. Taking a combination of the models last few runs, would produce this exact scenario, because between the northern solutions and southerly, the I-44 corridor lies in between. Again this is just my personal take on the data, but I have a lot of free time at the moment so I am analyzing every single run.

When in doubt, just watch the radar and you will see what is going to happen.

Definitely an interesting and somewhat troubling shift. Interesting, I've only looked at SREF plumes (not any spatial maps) but they've consistently been much lower on snow totals, only giving Norman under an inch but still providing a decent amount of sleet.

Basically same idea I posted above:

685
FXUS64 KOUN 040252
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
850 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR THIS EVENING... MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE
FORECAST. REMOVED THE THUNDER FROM THE SOUTH AND ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG. HAVE ALSO TRENDED TEMPS WARMER ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT.

QUICKLY LOOKING AT THIS EVENINGS 00Z NAM AND THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES FROM EARLIER RUN. A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SSOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... MODEL SHOWS MUCH OF THIS
AREA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OCCURING.
HOWEVER IF TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COULD LEAD TO MORE ICING
IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE TRANSITION TO SLEET. FARTHER NORTH... MODELS
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A TREND IN KEEPING AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF THE BAND OF RAIN... LIGHTER MEANING THAT SLEET
AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. NAM ALSO HAS TRENDED
LOWER WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL THEREFORE NOT UPGRADE ANY OF THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING AT THIS POINT. WILL SEE IF THE 00Z GFS CONT WITH THESE
TRENDS.

30

Well, fortunately for Norman, they've canceled school for tomorrow. Yay for them (and all the other closings I'm seeing scrolled across the screen).

OU, OSU, and most schools around the metro are now closed for tomorrow.

Just watched ch 25 weather and they are calling for a sheet of ice followed by up to 6 inches of snow. Does that sound about right?

Uh oh, 00Z GFS has low tracking even more south.

Classic OK winter storm last minute bail? Or models being goofy?

Must be because schools are closing ahead of storm. :D

Well, fortunately for Norman, they've canceled school for tomorrow. Yay for them (and all the other closings I'm seeing scrolled across the screen).

Mid-Del and Edmond schools have cancelled as well.

Just watched ch 25 weather and they are calling for a sheet of ice followed by up to 6 inches of snow. Does that sound about right?

If it was a recording from this morning, then I would say it's plausible.

But after the last couple runs, I would say less than a 5% chance of that happening.


Unless the models are out to lunch right now, most of OK (including OKC and Tulsa) could get a quick round of sleet (maybe half inch) and a dusting of snow. The models are just taking the low south instead of east across the state.

Uh oh, 00Z GFS has low tracking even more south.

Classic OK winter storm last minute bail? Or models being goofy?

Must be because schools are closing ahead of storm. :D

God forbid they wait until 5 am to decide on closing school.

God forbid they wait until 5 am to decide on closing school.

5am would be good, but I'd rather them do what they did tonight then let everyone come to school and then scramble to get everyone home.

Than*. Sorry bub, but it makes a world if difference. See?

The jump the gun school closing jinx rarely fails. 00z runs after all the closings made me lol.

Than*. Sorry bub, but it makes a world if difference. See?

Touche'. Just keeping you guys sharp for tornado season.

HRRR shows that potentially the sleet/freezing rain precip train will light up just ESE of OKC, possibly leaving morning commute unharmed. (Dryslot SW and C OK)

Then some rather pathetic wrap-around snow coming from the W/NW during the day.


Have to keep an eye on NW TX radar, that is where the precip train will form and ride up over OK. As the front really gets shoving south, should see all precip types light up along from the NE back to the SW and fill in the gaps. potentially some thunderstorms mixed in, as well.

Winter Weather Advisory Winter Weather Advisory
Updated: Tue Mar-03-15 10:15pm CST
Effective: Tue Mar-03-15 10:15pm CST
Expires: Thu Mar-05-15 12:00am CST

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Atoka; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Garvin; Grady; Greer; Harmon; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Wa****a

Instructions: Be careful if you have to travel. Even small amounts of ice and snow can make roads and sidewalks slick and dangerous.

Message summary: ...winter weather advisory remains in effect from 6 am wednesday to midnight cst wednesday night...
A winter weather advisory remains in effect from 6 am wednesday to midnight cst wednesday night.
* timing: accumulating sleet and freezing rain will be possible from daybreak wednesday to noon. Freezing rain will transition to sleet and snow in the afternoon and into the evening. The heaviest precipitation is expected to occur between 3 pm and 9 pm.
* snow and sleet accumulations: sleet accumulations are expected to be highest south and east of the interstate-44 corridor where some areas could see a half inch of sleet. Snow accumulations of one to three inches are likely with isolated heavier amounts.
* main impact: slick and hazardous roadways are expected to develop from accumulating sleet and snow.
* other impact: with stronger winds expected south of interstate-40...decreased visibilities in blowing snow will compound the travel dangers late wednesday afternoon through wednesday evening.

During the 10 p.m. news on Channel 9, Kelly Ogle announced that OKC public schools had just decided to close Wed. but I've seen no such announcement anywhere else...

During the 10 p.m. news on Channel 9, Kelly Ogle announced that OKC public schools had just decided to close Wed. but I've seen no such announcement anywhere else...

https://twitter.com/OKCPS/status/572970758021857280

06Z Updates...

Through Noon - Rain will continue to move NE over Oklahoma. At 2AM light rain currently is over SW OK and also SC OK, increasing in coverage and moving NE. Temps over NW OK area already at or below freezing. Temps in Central OK are falling into the mid 30s. NAM has sped up significantly on getting the Metro below freezing by the morning rush hour, where previous runs had it later in the morning. HRRR is a bit slower bringing us below freezing around 10AM. Precip looks to be most likely along and southeast of I-44, ending around 10AM locally but remain ongoing over NW OK.

Noon through Evening - Redevelopment of precip will start around 11AM to Noon. NAM is forecasting two bands of precip to setup. One is going to be on going over NW OK bringing light snow. Another area will develop generally along I-44 (give or take 40 miles on either side) that could provide a focused area of heavy snow and/or sleet. HRRR agrees with this as well. All precip should move out pretty quickly after 7 or 8 PM, but there could be some lingering freezing drizzle or light snow through Midnight.

The main struggle with the forecast is going to be where the heavy precip band sets up. Forcing isn't the best, so there isn't one specific area where we can say - HERE - for certain. If we bet on a NAM + HRRR blend then it could focus on an area generally along I-44 to about 50 miles southeast of it. Someone in that band could easily get 4+ inches of snow if sleet is limited. That also means someone could very well get next to nothing.

Not much else to add tonight. Models are being a bit unstable, but hopefully we are finally locked in now on the solution.

Yea cold air coming in quickly now. The precip in NW TX and SC OK is slowly drifting NNE. Could move development edge into OKC metro at rush hour.


Meanwhile. Dallas area upgraded to WSWs due to model shifting. Will be interesting to see how the low lifts out today into tonight.

New NAM coming in with some pretty decent snowfall totals for this afternoon and evening.

The low is tracking more northerly than what was suggested last night. This would drag the main precip along I-44, up to about I-40 then east.

Looks like 2-4" is a good bet anywhere along and south of I-40, with locally higher along the included I-44 corridor.




Sidenote: Don't let this weekend fool you, another powerful winter storm showing up around March 15th timeframe.

New NAM coming in with some pretty decent snowfall totals for this afternoon and evening.

The low is tracking more northerly than what was suggested last night. This would drag the main precip along I-44, up to about I-40 then east.

Looks like 2-4" is a good bet anywhere along and south of I-40, with locally higher along the included I-44 corridor.




Sidenote: Don't let this weekend fool you, another powerful winter storm showing up around March 15th timeframe.

What do you see for Tulsa???

New NAM coming in with some pretty decent snowfall totals for this afternoon and evening.

The low is tracking more northerly than what was suggested last night. This would drag the main precip along I-44, up to about I-40 then east.

Looks like 2-4" is a good bet anywhere along and south of I-40, with locally higher along the included I-44 corridor.




Sidenote: Don't let this weekend fool you, another powerful winter storm showing up around March 15th timeframe.

Since we missed the first wave in OKC and the cold front is here are we looking at just snow in OKC?

A lot of new echos coming up from C OK, back to the W and SW. So if this continues to fill in, OKC could get a few pockets of sleet before mostly snow this afternoon.

Also if this dryslot begins to fill in, overall storm totals could go up for the area mentioned above.



For Tulsa, they missed the main precip train this morning like OKC, I think they got a quick round of sleet. If I had to say at this moment, it looks like Tulsa could get bypassed by the main snow, but radar is trending up over central parts of the state right now, and this would put Tulsa back into some snow action this afternoon.

Since we missed the first wave in OKC and the cold front is here are we looking at just snow in OKC?

Sleet then to snow and some decent amounts of snow the way it is looking.

The 13Z HRRR is good for a laugh -- bringing out the sun by 4pm and warming us up above freezing.

Well, News9 this morning said around 1" of snow for OKC. This kind of forecasting must suck. Kids could be in school right now to be honest. Oh well.

The 13Z HRRR is good for a laugh -- bringing out the sun by 4pm and warming us up above freezing.

Meanwhile, the latest SREF runs for the day of the event (!) ... Yikes.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/11011456_10152809766959200_2849813441664985273_n.j pg?oh=7a00869b07c3bf028f5be78a60471356&oe=55878C38&__gda__=1434920541_279ccb63704b4514af6dc383f114ff4 3

Lots of bouncing around for the metro with the models even this morning. We'll see what the GFS has to say (as if it matters) but as far as snow totals in the metro go last night's model runs may have been a hiccup of sorts.

When looking at the radar loops I am showing a opening up or open donut hole seems to be forming in the precipitation in Texas to the SW of Oklahoma and I am also seeing a line form up through NW Oklahoma connecting to the precip in NE Oklahoma. is this a cause for concern for us here in central Oklahoma??

Meanwhile, the latest SREF runs for the day of the event (!) ... Yikes.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/11011456_10152809766959200_2849813441664985273_n.j pg?oh=7a00869b07c3bf028f5be78a60471356&oe=55878C38&__gda__=1434920541_279ccb63704b4514af6dc383f114ff4 3

Lots of bouncing around for the metro with the models even this morning. We'll see what the GFS has to say (as if it matters) but as far as snow totals in the metro go last night's model runs may have been a hiccup of sorts.


What is this referring to the SREF runs and why the Yikes?

Super technical drawing time!

I have highlighted in yellow the area I expect the most snowfall to occur. This area in yellow is currently filling in with precipitation as we head through the morning hours. I think it will only increase in intensity and coverage heading into this afternoon.

http://i.imgur.com/fAQqEZw.jpg?1

HRRR and SREF...two models I don't hear much about. Would one of you with more experience mind breaking down the acronyms for these and their backgrounds?

Starting to get some sparse raindrops here in Moore now. Really cold out there with the wind too

What is this referring to the SREF runs and why the Yikes?

I don't understand your first question but the "yikes" was just because of the insane model spread (0-9", and fairly evenly across the spectrum... no clustering) for an event in the next 18 hours. Tough forecast that clearly isn't too stable in its solution.


HRRR and SREF...two models I don't hear much about. Would one of you with more experience mind breaking down the acronyms for these and their backgrounds?

Sure.

"HRRR" is the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model. It runs every hour and only out to 15 hours. I'm not overly well versed on the model physics, but it is very high res (1 km) and is frequently used for its skill (sometimes lol) in forecasting radar evolution. Formerly called the RUC. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/

"SREF" is the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast. It is an ensemble of forecasts (initiated off the NAM I think) where there are three different physics schemes used (grouped by color -- ARW (pink), NMM (oranges), and NMB (blue)). Then amongst those, the initial conditions are also varied to get an idea of the sensitivity of the forecast to both the physics scheme used and the initial conditions. Clustering around a specific solution would imply a higher probability of that solution given assumed errors in model input, etc. Very often you'll see grouping by physics scheme which also shows a sensitivity to that. As you can see in the above forecast, the ARW members tend to be much higher than the rest, but otherwise there's a continuous range of possibilities along the spectrum that aren't particularly well defined or easy to pick out. What is usually posted here are the "plumes" for a given location, but traditional 2D "Weather maps" are also available -- they're just interpreted a bit differently since they are not deterministic forecasts but instead measures of spread in the solutions or the mean of all possible solutions.

Plumes - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150304&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=OUN&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap

Maps - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

12Z GFS is clueless. Has ongoing precip. in the wrong places (placement too far SE), and is taking the Low almost due E/SE.

Hey Loco, the first part of my question was what was it referring to and I think I figured it out it is referring to snow depth. would be nice to see those 9" depths. verify.

FWIW grounds temps are around 40 in the OKC area

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0113.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CST WED MAR 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 041600Z - 042100Z

SUMMARY...MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SLEET FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY...A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT MAY LEAD TO TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

DISCUSSION...MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WAS DEVELOPING IN WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT AND BAND OF
850 MB FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION STRETCHED FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL OK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND ANY PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE BRIEF AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
COOL AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUB-FREEZING DEPTH INCREASES. AS
SUCH...A FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET IS EXPECTED...BEFORE
FINALLY CHANGING TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING FROM CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION RATES
GENERALLY SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY.

Hey they stole my technical drawing!

In this ever-changing situation, does this technical discussion hint at generally lower snow totals as opposed to the 2-4 inch predictions that have been floated out there for central OK over the last 24 hours?

No, I would say 2-4 inches of snow is still a good bet for the area I mentioned earlier. But the air column isn't completely cooled way up top, so it will start as sleet, then switch to snow.

Looks like precip will begin falling consistently in the next hour for OKC.

Those NE winds are definitely providing some neat streaking to the radar right now...

https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10152448_592736870858970_6705611414387613346_n.png ?oh=07e0190b8f82ce8b386e5b4b671ac0c0&oe=55873BBC&__gda__=1435198934_ad7d3c54958f96a8bf5224e2a954d13 1

Sidenote: Don't let this weekend fool you, another powerful winter storm showing up around March 15th timeframe.



The biggest snowstorm I remember as a kid growing up in OKC was an 8+incher on/around the Ides of March (this was in 69 or 70, IIRC), so it IS possible.

No, I would say 2-4 inches of snow is still a good bet for the area I mentioned earlier. But the air column isn't completely cooled way up top, so it will start as sleet, then switch to snow.

Looks like precip will begin falling consistently in the next hour for OKC.

sleeting now in NW OKC

Snow band in NW OK is looking really healthy. Ponca City to Enid to Elk City.

There is some weird dry-pocketing going on in C OK right now, so precip. keeps getting shut off. This should be overcome as the afternoon progresses, though.

looking like the metro is maybe missing the bulk of this, or is there more building to the SW that will show up later today?

I hate trying to figure this out and then determine what to do with my employees, who I know are just MF'ing me for not letting them go already.

the roads will be fine for the rest of the day today

the roads will be fine for the rest of the day today

that's kinda what it's looking like

Not a chance. The low is just churning away down in SW TX, all of these bands of precip will continue to evolve and I am still sticking with my guns and the image I posted on the previous page, saying I-40 and south, and along I-44 corridor will be the hotspot.

Sorry trying to follow along but am somewhat of a weather idiot but not a chance of what?

Sorry trying to follow along but am somewhat of a weather idiot but not a chance of what?

I think he means not a chance of roads remaining fine through this event.

Sleet/Freezing Rain mix in Norman but transitioning over to more sleet by the sounds of it.

Gotcha.

Also thanks to everyone in these threads. Really enjoy the info.

Getting some pretty good sleet now in NW Moore, ground looks like it is becoming damp and I can see sleet on Roofs across the street from me.