View Full Version : 2015 Oklahoma Commercial Aviation Discussion



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bradh
06-07-2015, 09:37 PM
I saw that United is sending a E-135 now on the EWR-OKC route. I'm totally OK with this because I'm sure it's either an EMB-135 or no flight at all on the route. (And I'd rather have a small plane than no plane) Just wondering if this is the longest scheduled EMB135 in the states.

It's long alright, took it last November. There are several routes from IAH to the east coast that are also served by E135's that are 4+ hours because of the jetstream, it's awful

catch22
06-07-2015, 10:06 PM
I saw that United is sending a E-135 now on the EWR-OKC route. I'm totally OK with this because I'm sure it's either an EMB-135 or no flight at all on the route. (And I'd rather have a small plane than no plane) Just wondering if this is the longest scheduled EMB135 in the states.

It is not "scheduled". It happens from time to time as an equipment swap for a mechanical. Similar has happened to LAX and SFO with Crj200's.

As the 145's go the 170/175 will take over this route permanently. Right now it's off and on between the 145 and 170/5.

NWOKCGuy
06-08-2015, 12:14 PM
I'm going to Seattle over Labor Day and just got notice that both my flights are an hour earlier than originally scheduled. Anyone know how that flight is looking? Seems like they moved them to better times and was wondering if it was doing better than expected.

HangryHippo
06-08-2015, 01:16 PM
What airline?

catch22
06-08-2015, 02:24 PM
I'm going to Seattle over Labor Day and just got notice that both my flights are an hour earlier than originally scheduled. Anyone know how that flight is looking? Seems like they moved them to better times and was wondering if it was doing better than expected.

About 3 months out from any particular month, the airline finalizes the schedule. They may have adjusted it because of gate usage in Seattle or to better connect to a connecting bank.

The schedule > 3 months out is usually a "dummy" schedule. It's a rough outline of what they intend to fly. Then as it gets closer they adjust and finalize everything.

I don't know how well it's doing. I am booked on the first flight SEA-OKC-SEA.

OUman
06-12-2015, 06:38 PM
Just thought I would post this. It is interesting for sure.

Emirates planning 100 new destinations by 2025 (http://www.thirtythousand.us/2015/06/11/emirates100destinations/#.VXtqhEarG-k).

Most of the new cities and "towns" will be Tier-3. Makes one wonder for sure exactly what those cities and towns are...

HOT ROD
06-19-2015, 01:37 PM
Nice to see this commitment to Oklahoma City from Alaska Airlines.

Alaska Airlines Prepares for E-Jet Debut :: Routesonline (http://www.routesonline.com/news/29/breaking-news/249435/alaska-airlines-prepares-for-e-jet-debut/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=the-hub&utm_campaign=the-hub-AME)

Now if we could get PDX-OKC and perhaps an East Coast destination that's missing (BOS, PHL, or MIA) it would be fantastic while also expanding the city's reach getting OKC ever closer/solid as a Tier 2 city.

gopokes88
06-22-2015, 12:33 PM
http://www.flyokc.com/statistics/May2015Enplanement.pdf

AP
06-22-2015, 02:06 PM
That's not good.

bradh
06-22-2015, 02:58 PM
But hey, let's keep driving to DFW and then complaining about our options!

catch22
06-22-2015, 03:13 PM
Theres ample proof that Frontier pulling out, also brought their customers with them.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, OKC needs the ULCC model. Spirit or Frontier.

LakeEffect
06-22-2015, 03:42 PM
Theres ample proof that Frontier pulling out, also brought their customers with them.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, OKC needs the ULCC model. Spirit or Frontier.

Yeah. Take them (and Allegiant) out of the chart, and the year-to-year reduction is 1.38%. Still not great, but much less impact. Southwest was down quite a bit - is that due to lesser capacity?

s00nr1
06-22-2015, 03:42 PM
AA and UAL with some very solid gains tells me the biz traveler in OKC is still flying (for the most part).

s00nr1
06-22-2015, 04:33 PM
Nm

PhiAlpha
06-22-2015, 07:35 PM
I think the oil price decline may have a lot to do with some of the enplanement/deplanement reductions. Travel budgets for all of OKC's Energy companies and out of town companies that fly people here several weeks a month have been drastically cut and that all really kicked in after January. I had several friends flying here weekly that all stopped about that time. As another example, I was at a convention this week in which CHK, DVN, and CLR would've sent large contingents and only sent 2-8 people a piece. While I'm sure other factors at play, I don't think it's a coincidence that these passenger declines more or less correlate with oil prices bottoming out and the resulting budget cuts.

Catch, I definitely agree with Frontier taking a lot of their passengers with them. I've talked to more than a few people that wanted the ULLC rates for Vegas and others (especially when booking somewhat last minute), packed a car full of people, split gas, and drove to DFW. I think Sprit or someone similar could do very well here.

PhiAlpha
06-22-2015, 08:39 PM
Below is a graph of the WTI oil price from January to June and the graphs of Enplanements vs. Deplanements for the data in the PDF above. I removed Frontier from the equation since I assume most of the travelers lost were not business (Business travelers are less likely to drive to another airport to catch a flight).


http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=10986&stc=1http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=10985&stc=1http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=10983&stc=1http://www.okctalk.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=10984&stc=1

PhiAlpha
06-22-2015, 08:45 PM
Yeah. Take them (and Allegiant) out of the chart, and the year-to-year reduction is 1.38%. Still not great, but much less impact. Southwest was down quite a bit - is that due to lesser capacity?

I bet the SW drop does have at least something to do with the flight or two we lost due to the wright amendment. Didn't we lose one DAL & BWI direct flight?

LakeEffect
06-23-2015, 08:46 AM
I bet the SW drop does have at least something to do with the flight or two we lost due to the wright amendment. Didn't we lose one DAL & BWI direct flight?

I think so. Flights to KC and St Louis have also been cut in the past few years.

Business travel is highly variable too... those of us not in energy still fly often. in 2013 and 2014, I did about 1 business trip a month. This year, I haven't left the state for business. So many variables when it comes to contracting and outside business.

PhiAlpha
06-23-2015, 12:02 PM
Business travel is highly variable too... those of us not in energy still fly often. in 2013 and 2014, I did about 1 business trip a month. This year, I haven't left the state for business. So many variables when it comes to contracting and outside business.

I agree, I was just trying to find a common link specific to OKC travel that would cause OKC air travel to be down across the board. The price of oil is one major economic driver here that could have an effect on business and some personal air travel and I think it clearly is. Though, I agree, no doubt that there are other variables involved.

catch22
06-29-2015, 03:00 PM
Just an FYI, the first flight OKC-SEA is sold out in coach, and has a few FC seats left.


Hopefully this flight does well in the future and they either a) add another b) add PDX c) upgrade to a 737.

no1cub17
06-30-2015, 01:55 PM
Just an FYI, the first flight OKC-SEA is sold out in coach, and has a few FC seats left.


Hopefully this flight does well in the future and they either a) add another b) add PDX c) upgrade to a 737.

Indeed. I hope AS adds a morning frequency that connects to their Hawaii bank. AS' service looks pretty solid!

HOT ROD
07-01-2015, 02:19 PM
Just an FYI, the first flight OKC-SEA is sold out in coach, and has a few FC seats left.


Hopefully this flight does well in the future and they either a) add another b) add PDX c) upgrade to a 737.

I see this as a 4 step process:
Step 1 = mature the existing service
Step 2 = a) add another plane: Evening Arrival/Early AM departure (key for Seattle Business, since the existing flight seems key for OKC business)
Step 3 = c) upgauge one of the flights to 737 (be nice if it is the existing flight, shows OKC's command)
Step 4 = add PDX
.. ...
Step 5 = add an East Coast destination to balance the PDX nonstop, say DCA or MIA

s00nr1
07-02-2015, 10:32 AM
Just an FYI, the first flight OKC-SEA is sold out in coach, and has a few FC seats left.


Hopefully this flight does well in the future and they either a) add another b) add PDX c) upgrade to a 737.


I would think (c) would make sense seeing as how AS already completes some of their 737 maintenance at WRWA.

damonsmuz
07-06-2015, 06:54 PM
Kinda related... Thunder get a fancy upgrade in equipment

NBA Players Get Roomier Chartered Jets as Delta Air Adds Teams - Bloomberg Business (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-06/nba-players-get-roomier-chartered-jets-as-delta-air-adds-teams?cmpid=yhoo)

damonsmuz
07-12-2015, 10:38 PM
Recently flew from OKC-MSP on Compass out and Skywest back. Flight out was about 85% full and flight back was 100% full (though 4 of the passengers were employees of Delta). 3 flights a day to MSP .. how does this compare to the past few years when Northwest/Airlink operated the route?

gopokes88
07-12-2015, 11:19 PM
June is out. Little better still behind '14. http://www.flyokc.com/statistics/June2015Enplanement.pdf

HangryHippo
07-13-2015, 10:32 AM
American appears to be seeing some good growth.

NWOKCGuy
07-13-2015, 11:07 AM
Any insight to what has caused the lift with AA?

bradh
07-13-2015, 01:15 PM
Any insight to what has caused the lift with AA?

more awareness of the Charlotte route?

I wish they'd open up a nonstop to PHX now

gopokes88
07-13-2015, 01:51 PM
more awareness of the Charlotte route?

I wish they'd open up a nonstop to PHX now

Southwest has one though

bradh
07-13-2015, 02:39 PM
More competition for nonstop routes is never a bad thing

HangryHippo
07-13-2015, 02:48 PM
I'm hoping we get hooked into either PHL or JFK someday soon.

rayhurst
07-13-2015, 06:50 PM
I'm hoping we get hooked into either PHL or JFK someday soon.

Or MIA for better connections to the Caribbean and South America and additional routes to Europe!

catch22
07-13-2015, 08:47 PM
Or MIA for better connections to the Caribbean and South America and additional routes to Europe!

I think MIA is a decade away, or more.

American (which along with oneworld is very strong in Austin) just only recently began flying nonstop Austin-Miami, and the flight isn't doing particularly well. It began as daily service, and very quickly was reduced to less than daily.

If Austin to Miami can't work, OKC to Miami will be a very difficult sell, especially with the OKC-Florida market having an atrocious record of unprofitable flying. The Allegiant experiment is still pending. Long term it will be interesting to see if they last.

catch22
07-13-2015, 08:50 PM
Based on recent success I predict the next several years OKC will add AA to PHX and PHL, AS will either expand OKC-SEA or add PDX (one or the other), and UA will drop LAX and add a second SFO.

Who know what WN will do, and I think DL is fairly satisfied with the market at this time.

pure
07-15-2015, 07:43 AM
I understand that Tulsa does maintenance for AA, but how is the TUL - MIA route doing?

OUman
07-15-2015, 08:40 AM
I think MIA is a decade away, or more.

American (which along with oneworld is very strong in Austin) just only recently began flying nonstop Austin-Miami, and the flight isn't doing particularly well. It began as daily service, and very quickly was reduced to less than daily.

If Austin to Miami can't work, OKC to Miami will be a very difficult sell, especially with the OKC-Florida market having an atrocious record of unprofitable flying. The Allegiant experiment is still pending. Long term it will be interesting to see if they last.

Austin also has three daily nonstops to/from Fort-Lauderdale Hollywood Int'l (two Southwest, one Jetblue) which probably hasn't helped the Miami route all that much either. I suspect most of the Austin-Miami traffic is leisure-driven, which almost always tends to prefer FLL over MIA.

Urbanized
07-15-2015, 09:58 AM
SkyWest airlines hit with restrictions and fines after 12,000-foot descent (http://mashable.com/2015/07/15/skywest-airlines-problems/)


SkyWest airlines hit with restrictions and fines after 12,000-foot descent

By Jessica Plautz

The Federal Aviation Administration is cracking down on SkyWest airlines — hard.

Last April, one of the carrier's planes stalled on a flight from Denver to Oklahoma City, descending from 39,000 to 27,000 feet, according to the FAA. In response to the incident, the administration is putting both speed and altitude restrictions on SkyWest.

The new restrictions will keep the carrier's CRJ700 and 900 aircraft at or below 35,000 feet, and CRJ200 aircraft at or below 33,000 feet.

SkyWest says the plane did not stall, but experienced a "slow speed event."

"Months ago, one SkyWest CRJ aircraft experienced an isolated slow speed event, which is when an aircraft reaches less than optimal speeds," SkyWest told ABC. "The aircraft’s slow speed alert systems functioned perfectly, and the crew responded appropriately with a 4,000-foot descent. No stall occurred."

SkyWest also told ABC that it expects the restrictions to be lifted once the FAA analyzes all the available data about the incident.

However, this is only the latest FAA decision against the airline, which partners with major carriers including American, United and Delta.

Last week, the FAA proposed more than $1.2 million in fines against the airline "for allegedly operating an aircraft that was not in compliance with federal aviation regulations."

The FAA said the carrier had failed to inspect landing gear and cargo door skins on several planes at the proper intervals to check for damage that could put flights at risk. The number of flights that took place on planes overdue for inspection number into the thousands, according to the FAA.

SkyWest, which carried 28 million passengers last year, has a month to respond to the FAA fines.

catch22
07-15-2015, 03:13 PM
Austin also has three daily nonstops to/from Fort-Lauderdale Hollywood Int'l (two Southwest, one Jetblue) which probably hasn't helped the Miami route all that much either. I suspect most of the Austin-Miami traffic is leisure-driven, which almost always tends to prefer FLL over MIA.

Which does not help our argument one bit either. As OKC-Florida is very leisure (hardly any large industry ties between the SE/Florida and OKC). Southwest won't touch FLL-OKC, and we do not have B6. MIA has AA, but as you point out the leisure market generally goes to FLL.

I just don't see it as viable. With CLT now, access into Florida can easily be accommodated.

OUman
07-15-2015, 06:41 PM
^Hopefully the CLT flights will keep getting better passenger numbers and we can have a decent competitor to ATL. Better frequencies and/or larger planes.

Austin just scored another major international carrier. Albeit only summer-seasonal and twice-weekly, but getting Condor in addition to BA will certainly help to grow the international market down there.

Source: Austin Bergstrom Airport (http://www.austintexas.gov/news/condor-airlines-announces-frankfurt-germany-nonstop)

ljbab728
07-16-2015, 11:20 PM
I went to a chamber function today introducing Alaska Airlines to OKC. An interesting note is that the plane we are getting is brand new and has never been used on another route.

catch22
07-17-2015, 02:27 AM
I went to a chamber function today introducing Alaska Airlines to OKC. An interesting note is that the plane we are getting is brand new and has never been used on another route.

Thats simply not true.

SkyWest began operating the E175 for Alaska on July 1 on the following routes: SEA-OKC/ONT/SLC/MKE as well as PDX-STL.

brianinok
07-17-2015, 07:25 AM
July 1? I don't see how that is not new. They might have flown a few routes for a few days before OKC, but that's still new. Just like when you buy a new car other people have likely test driven it.

HangryHippo
07-17-2015, 09:09 AM
Catch, do you see any new routes opening up for OKC in the near future - i.e. in the next 6 months/year? Could OKC support San Antonio or New Orleans?

OKC is pretty well connected to the major cities at this point, so I'm curious what else is out there on the airport's radar, aside from PHL, PHX, and maybe LGA/JFK someday.

ljbab728
07-17-2015, 10:58 AM
Thats simply not true.

SkyWest began operating the E175 for Alaska on July 1 on the following routes: SEA-OKC/ONT/SLC/MKE as well as PDX-STL.
The Alaska Airlines rep at the meeting showed us a picture of the plane to be used and assured us that it was a new plane. She did not say it was a new type of plane just that our specific plane had not been used before on another route.

C_M_25
07-17-2015, 12:27 PM
What do you all think the long-term viability of Alaska Airlines here in OKC is?

I'm hoping they stick around for a long time. Having a non-stop to Seattle is pretty sweet.

ljbab728
07-17-2015, 12:49 PM
Nothing is a given when it comes to airlines, but I think the outlook is good to stick around. They are mentioning the possibility of increasing capacity or number of flights if it continues to go well.

catch22
07-17-2015, 02:13 PM
July 1? I don't see how that is not new. They might have flown a few routes for a few days before OKC, but that's still new. Just like when you buy a new car other people have likely test driven it.

Not saying it's not new, I'm saying it's not a plane specifically for our route. "has not been used on another route".

It in fact has been used on several routes for AS.

ljbab728
07-17-2015, 10:02 PM
Not saying it's not new, I'm saying it's not a plane specifically for our route. "has not been used on another route".

It in fact has been used on several routes for AS.

You're still not understanding what I said in my original post. I didn't mean that kind of plane had not been used on other Alaska Airlines routes. I was only talking about the specific plane which will be flying between SEA and OKC

zookeeper
07-17-2015, 11:23 PM
You're still not understanding what I said in my original post. I didn't mean that kind of plane had not been used on other Alaska Airlines routes. I was only talking about the specific plane which will be flying between SEA and OKC

Now I'm confused. I thought what you originally said as well - one of the TV stations mentioned the "brand new" plane. But, maybe what Catch is saying is that one single plane is not used specifically for any one route. If that's what he meant, maybe the "brand new" plane was used on the first day as a sort of symbolism of the new route. But it won't be dedicated to that route.

Have I confused everyone even more? In fact ---- Who am I? Why am I here?

ljbab728
07-17-2015, 11:58 PM
Now I'm confused. I thought what you originally said as well - one of the TV stations mentioned the "brand new" plane. But, maybe what Catch is saying is that one single plane is not used specifically for any one route. If that's what he meant, maybe the "brand new" plane was used on the first day as a sort of symbolism of the new route. But it won't be dedicated to that route.

Have I confused everyone even more? In fact ---- Who am I? Why am I here?

Yes, and this explains all.


"Young Caine: You cannot see.
Master Po: You think I cannot see?
Young Caine: Of all things, to live in darkness must be worst.
Master Po: Fear is the only darkness.
"
Kung Fu (TV) - 1972





But in answer to your question, that plane will remain on the OKC - SEA route for now.

catch22
07-18-2015, 12:24 AM
Gotcha, lj.

Either way, Alaska has excellent service. I flew in and out on the inaugural flight (SEA-OKC-SEA) and the service was excellent. I flew SEA-OKC several days later and had good service as well.

I hope they do well enough to add some flights (PDX!!!!!!!!!)

ljbab728
07-18-2015, 12:47 AM
Gotcha, lj.

Either way, Alaska has excellent service. I flew in and out on the inaugural flight (SEA-OKC-SEA) and the service was excellent. I flew SEA-OKC several days later and had good service as well.

I hope they do well enough to add some flights (PDX!!!!!!!!!)

I agree and their rep stressed how service oriented they are to travelers from benefits to frequent flyers to on board amenities. Their ticket change fee of $125.00 is also less than most carriers. She also thought they should be considered to be a "legacy carrier" since they've been in business for over 80 years.

OUman
07-18-2015, 09:15 AM
Alaska has been a long-time favourite on the west coast from the reviews online and what I gather from elsewhere on the 'net. Good to see the service has gotten off to a good start and it's always nice to have someone mention the possibility of increased frequency/larger aircraft. Which is why there is a big push by longtime fans to support it at its home base of SEA as Delta keeps building its own hub there.

no1cub17
07-20-2015, 02:00 PM
Plus AS and AA are quite cozy (full mileage earning, crossover elite benefits), so that should help AS out here too given AA's large following here. Curious what, if anything, AA and AS do to enhance their relationship once the merger is completed.

bombermwc
07-22-2015, 08:15 AM
Im still not super excited about the size of the plane, but it could be worse. I'll be hopping on this flight for my next trip to SEA in Sep.

HangryHippo
07-22-2015, 09:26 AM
I much prefer the Embraer 170/75s and 190/95s to any of the CRJ jets. I think they're pretty comfortable and new, which is always nice.

catch22
07-29-2015, 06:52 PM
In the Will Rogers World Airport thread I posted a graphic of airline rents and costs per passenger. For Alaska, they estimated 22,800 enplaned passengers per year. It is likely this figure came from Alaska, which gives us some insight as to what would be considered a successful load factor. That 22,800 comes out to about 63 per day.

In the coming weeks we will get the first passenger numbers for Alaska for July. So far they only had one canceled flight, which means they will have operated 30 flights. Hopefully the average will work out to greater than 63.

no1cub17
08-02-2015, 08:14 PM
Im still not super excited about the size of the plane, but it could be worse. I'll be hopping on this flight for my next trip to SEA in Sep.

Again, there's absolutely nothing wrong with the Ejets. No reason to be skeptical at all.

damonsmuz
08-03-2015, 01:20 PM
I love the Ejets over the CRJ's. I recently booked a trip to Calgary on Delta and ended up picking MSP over SLC simply because of the EMB-170 rather than the CRJ-900. It may have been a few bucks more but the EMBs are def. much more roomier IMO.