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venture 12-29-2014, 12:02 PM Live Chat @ Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html) | NWS Norman (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/) (OUN) | Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/) | Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.org/) | West TX Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/) | NWS OUN Fire Weather (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather) | Road Conditions (http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi)
Current Conditions
Air Temperature Dewpoint Winds Rainfall Last 24 Hours http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TAIR.grad.png (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/air_temperature/air_temperature) http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/dewpoint/dewpoint_humidity) http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.gustbarbs.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_speed_gusts_with_barbs/wind) http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/24_hr_rainfall_accumulation/rainfall)
Advisory Table NWS Norman Warning Area NWS Tulsa Warning Area
[*=left]Tornado Warning
[*=left]Tornado Watch
[*=left]Severe T-Storm Warning
[*=left]Severe T-Storm Watch
[*=left]Blizzard Warning
[*=left]Blizzard Watch
[*=left]Winter Storm Warning
[*=left]Winter Storm Watch
[*=left]Ice Storm Warning
[*=left]Red Flag Warning
[*=left]Winter Weather Advisory
[*=left]Wind Chill Advisory
[*=left]Wind Chill Warning
[*=left]Freezing Rain Advisory
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/) http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/) Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service (http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php)
Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma
http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif
Severe Weather Outlooks & Products
Day 1 (Today) Outlook Day 2 (Tomorrow) Outlook Day 3 Outlook Outlook for Days 4 through 8 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)
Winter Precipitation Model Forecasts
NAM 12Z/00Z Run - Winter Precip Accumulation - 84HR
Top: 10:1 Snowfall, Middle: Sleet, Bottom: Freezing Rain Accumulation Totals NAM 06Z/18Z Run - Winter Precip Accumulation - 84HR
Top: 10:1 Snowfall, Middle: Sleet, Bottom: Freezing Rain Accumulation Totals RUC T+1.5HR Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 18HR http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_84HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_84HR.gif http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_84HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_84HR.gif http://www.wxcaster4.com/rap/CONUS1_RAP236_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_18HR.gif
WRF 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 48HR
http://www.grib2.com/wrf/S-PLAINS_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_10-1_48HR.gif
Snow Accumulation Sleet Freezing Rain Operational GFS 12Z/00Z Run
(144 Hr Totals) http://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_144HR.gif http://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_144HR.gif http://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_144HR.gif Operational GFS 06Z/18Z Run
(120 Hr Totals) http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_120HR.gif http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_120HR.gif http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_120HR.gif GEM Run
(144 Hr Totals) http://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif http://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_144HR.gif http://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_144HR.gif
Lightning image is © Blitzortung.org. Mesonet maps are all © of the Oklahoma Mesonet / OU Board of Regents.
venture 12-29-2014, 12:09 PM With the incoming winter storm that will happen right as we enter January, I've put this thread up a bit early. I tried to clear out some of the information at the top to add in better visibility of the winter forecast model products.
Anonymous. 12-29-2014, 01:38 PM Classic winter storm for the southern plains shaping up.
Cold air blast coming into the state now, we have likely seen the sun for the last time this week.
Temperatures will struggle to make freezing the next few days, perhaps a few degrees above just before storm hits.
Ground temperatures will be very cold as night time lows will be in the teens and daytime highs of <32F with limited sunshine.
All of these things will lead a deepening low that will move across TX and OK. Grab your popcorn and turn on the local news @ 10 (just kidding, please don't post their forecasts).
Bobby821 12-29-2014, 01:55 PM That's awesome news, it is wintertime so let it be winter precip.
s00nr1 12-29-2014, 02:24 PM That's awesome news, it is wintertime so let it be winter precip.
Hardly "awesome" to those who are severely impacted by ice.
Bobby821 12-29-2014, 02:30 PM Hardly "awesome" to those who are severely impacted by ice.
We haven't had a good ice storm in a few years, hopefully this one pans out for the metro with ice and snow
s00nr1 12-29-2014, 03:01 PM Anyone hoping for a "good ice storm" should probably have their head checked.
bchris02 12-29-2014, 04:22 PM Hopefully it comes as snow or a winter mix. Ice storms cause nothing but problems and are only welcomed by school-age children in hopes they will get out of school.
LocoAko 12-29-2014, 04:26 PM Hopefully it comes as snow or a winter mix. Ice storms cause nothing but problems and are only welcomed by school-age children in hopes they will get out of school.
Well, they can make for some stunningly beautiful photographs IMO, but that's not quite reason enough to root for them lol.
Though of course, as with storm chasing, whether you root for or against it has no actual effect on the outcome so as long as it isn't tactless it isn't unethical, but I digress...
venture 12-29-2014, 06:05 PM Let's try to keep the thread on track and avoid direct personal digs. These threads always will attract those that like extreme weather and I don't think anyone wishes for it so that it would cause harm to others.
ouamber 12-29-2014, 06:39 PM When will this storm be sampled? Or is it already being sampled on shore? The 18Z models looked like the low was tracking a tad north when it finally kicks out later towards the weekend. Any thoughts?
OKCisOK4me 12-29-2014, 10:00 PM Waiting to see what the local mets say here at 10PM?
Some just released video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-MEfvVxw0M
Soonerman12 12-30-2014, 06:45 AM Anon/David.... What's the latest on our potential winter storm? GFS looking wet, but will temps be there?
venture 12-30-2014, 09:12 AM Anon/David.... What's the latest on our potential winter storm? GFS looking wet, but will temps be there?
Not sure if you have looked the last couple of updates, but the AFDs from Norman keep pointing out that the operation GFS (the one linked in the graphics above and the one most accessible online) has traditional stayed warm with the system contrary to the Parallel GFS and other models. So let's take that thought from them and combine it with what we typically see....cold air rushing in faster or staying established - heck, the last snowfall was a result of temps dropping just a couple degrees below guidance and bam. So this is kinda where everything is falling...
Thursday - Freezing Rain & Sleet for nearly everyone.
Friday - Freezing Rain to start the day and then hopefully enough warming to turn off the ice machine. This will also be the time period with the highest precip amounts.
Saturday - Wrap around snow that Anon has mentioned with best chances north as the rest of us will probably get dry slotted.
In the mean time, we do have snow chances today...mainly an inch of less for everyone along/west of I-35.
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014123013/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png
Soonerman12 12-30-2014, 09:22 AM David... Yeah I saw that. Do you think dry slot will be for central and southwest or pretty much take over all the state. I've noticed the models are changing quite a bit every run (LOL normal for Oklahoma before winter storms) But it seems like my part of the state may miss out on quite a bit. (Tulsa)
Anonymous. 12-30-2014, 09:54 AM NAM is even more Bread and Milk today. Still not sure on wrap-around snow for NAM.
GFS is unraveling storm quite a bit and shoving the system off east quickly. Starting to be outlier.
s00nr1 12-30-2014, 10:38 AM http://www.spia-index.com/spia-images/wfoTotalIce.png
Soonerman12 12-30-2014, 10:41 AM Anon.... When you say bread and milk is it for west/central OK or ALL of OK? Also, is GFS starting to look like it may not be picking up on the storm "correctly"?
venture 12-30-2014, 10:47 AM Anon.... When you say bread and milk is it for west/central OK or ALL of OK? Also, is GFS starting to look like it may not be picking up on the storm "correctly"?
If you don't have this site, I really like it for Parallel GFS runs: Parallel GFS - Numerical Model Prediction - Tropical Tidbits (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/)
So P-GFS has sleet starting around here by 18Z Thursday. To show how things have trended, here is that forecast hour for the last ~32 P-GFS runs (most recent first): http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014123012/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_comp54.html
Overall forecast animation: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014123012/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus.html
venture 12-30-2014, 10:51 AM Here is another good comparison of the 12Z GFS (top one) vs. P-GFS runs for the exact some forecast period - 18Z Thursday.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014123012/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014123012/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png
Soonerman12 12-30-2014, 11:00 AM Thanks David I appreciate it!
Anonymous. 12-30-2014, 03:52 PM After being decently consistent the last couple days, NAM just shoved entire storm east, hardly any moisture in C or W OK. Sort-of lines up with the GFS from this morning.
Easy180 12-30-2014, 07:06 PM After being decently consistent the last couple days, NAM just shoved entire storm east, hardly any moisture in C or W OK. Sort-of lines up with the GFS from this morning.
Let's hope this pans out. Don't nobody want ice.
OKCisOK4me 12-30-2014, 07:24 PM I'll take dry.
Bobby821 12-30-2014, 07:33 PM I want ICE
OKCisOK4me 12-30-2014, 07:54 PM ^^you are weird.
John1744 12-30-2014, 08:27 PM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERHKnqR7H1o
Latest NWS thoughts.
ljbab728 12-30-2014, 08:50 PM I want ICE
Your nearest 7-11 will have plenty for you I'm sure. :)
venture 12-30-2014, 11:11 PM First set of advisories...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
921 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2014
OKZ036-037-044-TXZ083>090-311130-
/O.EXT.KOUN.ZR.Y.0001.141231T0321Z-141231T1500Z/
JACKSON-TILLMAN-COTTON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-
BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTUS...FREDERICK...WALTERS...QUANAH...
CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...
KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...
HENRIETTA
921 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2014
...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.
* TIMING: OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.
* ICE ACCUMULATIONS: UP TO 1/8 INCH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...TAKE EXTRA BLANKETS AND WINTER SAFETY ITEMS TO
SURVIVE IN THE COLD IF YOU ARE INVOLVED IN AN ACCIDENT OR SLIDE
OFF THE ROAD.
venture 12-30-2014, 11:49 PM 00Z GFS UPDATE
Operational GFS
Tonight/Wednesday AM - Light snow, up to a dusting mainly SW and W OK.
Thursday - Freezing Rain/Sleet/Snow early in SW OK. Spread over I-44 corridor by Noon. Precip ends West to East by evening.
Friday AM - Light rain along Red River, dry elsewhere.
Friday PM - Rain develops by late afternoon/early evening along/southeast of I-44. Through the evening precip increases and shield of snow develops along I-35 and to the west.
Saturday AM - Snow band covers much of Central OK and Western OK (except far west). Precip rapidly end through the late morning hours.
Storm totals: Freezing Rain less than 0.1", Sleet less than 0.1", Snow a strip of snow from SW OK through NC OK with possible 2-5".
Parallel GFS
Tonight/Wednesday AM - Light snow, up to a dusting mainly SW and W OK.
Thursday - Freezing Rain/Sleet/Snow early in SW OK. Moves into Central OK by Noon. Change to mostly Rain by late afternoon before ending.
Friday AM - Light rain along Red River, Freezing Rain/Sleet/Snow in SW OK. Dry elsewhere.
Friday PM - By Noon rain over much of Central and SE OK. Rain/Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain mix possible over far W and SW OK. Transition to mostly rain, some moderate, over much of the state except a mix far NW.
Saturday AM - Low moves through NE TX and keeps us mostly liquid over the state except NW OK. Wrap around Rain over the state with Snow NW.
Saturday PM - Wrap around snow NC OK, rain NE. Dry elsewhere.
venture 12-30-2014, 11:56 PM After being decently consistent the last couple days, NAM just shoved entire storm east, hardly any moisture in C or W OK. Sort-of lines up with the GFS from this morning.
00Z run kinda keeping the same thinking it appears. By 03Z SAT it does have a pretty hefty snow band from Shawnee-Norman-Duncan.
The track of the low though has me wondering just how much will be liquid. A track through NE TX normally means snow for us more often than not. A lot of cold air already in place, I really wonder how much warmer can realistically happen. A see a message where a couple degrees is going to completely change the forecast.
Soonerman12 12-31-2014, 05:25 AM Man i'm just really not sure about this storm...
Soonerman12 12-31-2014, 06:28 AM I have a feeling we may be dealing with cooler temps then what the models are throwing out, I think it may kind of be the same as last Saturday. I've seen the models do this way too many times, they change over and over (especially the day or two before) then final gives us the "correct" forecast the day of the event. I'm just not really thinking it is going to warm up that much to give us plain Jane rain. Who knows, i'd like to hear what all of you are thinking...
Bobby821 12-31-2014, 07:02 AM Same thing, staying colder than forecast
venture 12-31-2014, 07:25 AM Winter Wx Advisory for SW and SC OK...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
501 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014
OKZ032-040>043-046>048-050>052-311915-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0016.150101T0600Z-150102T1200Z/
HUGHES-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-
MARSHALL-BRYAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLDENVILLE...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...
ADA...COALGATE...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MA RIETTA...
MADILL...DURANT
501 AM CST WED DEC 31 2014
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6
AM CST FRIDAY.
* TIMING: FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
* MAIN IMPACT: AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
ARE EXPECTED.
* OTHER IMPACTS: ROADS...BRIDGES...SIDEWALKS...AND PARKING LOTS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SLEET CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.
Soonerman12 12-31-2014, 07:32 AM David... Putting models aside, what do you think will happen for the majority of Oklahoma?? You thinking none of the models are handling this well just yet? I cant see temps warming up that much for at least Thursday and Friday. I think there is a good chance these will start changing this afternoon/evening.
venture 12-31-2014, 07:44 AM David... Putting models aside, what do you think will happen for the majority of Oklahoma?? You thinking none of the models are handling this well just yet? I cant see temps warming up that much for at least Thursday and Friday. I think there is a good chance these will start changing this afternoon/evening.
The two big questions right now are...
1) Will the cold air move around a bit to allow things to warm up enough for pure rain and no icing?
2) How much precip will actually fall or will the amounts be lighter as some models are suggesting?
Hopefully we can get some answers once the 12Z runs start to come in.
venture 12-31-2014, 07:57 AM With the sun up and finally light out, looks like we picked up a very light dusting in Norman overnight with a small band of snow that moved through.
Anonymous. 12-31-2014, 08:33 AM NAM is still trying to skirt most of the action east, but still holds hope for some SW and C OK precip.
GFS coming back with heavier amounts now over most of state. Even hinting at potential heavy snow banding somewhere from SW OK to NC OK, with wrap around.
Ground temps right now are ripe for an ice storm, regardless - whatever is falling will be sticking if the air temps stay below freezing (especially in the sub 30F range).
venture 12-31-2014, 08:36 AM Band of light snow picking up a bit over SW OK. mPING snow reports coming in now from Altus to Lawton to Marlow and over towards Ardmore. Band will slowly move north but probably won't survive long enough to impact most of us.
venture 12-31-2014, 09:39 AM Snow picking up a bit over the far southern Metro area and another band down to the SW. Movement NE.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-dec/31-1.png
OKCisOK4me 12-31-2014, 09:44 AM Well, Old Man Winter is trying to spit out a little moisture over here by Kilpatrick & I-40.
venture 12-31-2014, 09:59 AM 12Z GFS kicking off a good band of heavier precip by 12AM Saturday right along I-44 through the state. Parallel GFS has a similar feature as well. Right now both have it as all rain, but that just means we will need to be watching temps all the more closely.
ksearls 12-31-2014, 10:48 AM Keeping an eye on things for my friend who needs to drive back from Santa Fe. Do you see any time over the next few days that will be safe? If it was you when would you do it? (not counting today)
Thanks for all you do!
Soonerman12 12-31-2014, 11:32 AM David... Starting to look clearer to you? I just can't imagine it warming up a ton.. What do you think ANON?
Anonymous. 12-31-2014, 11:48 AM GFS is still saying mostly rain for majority of OK, it is going to be close.
Right now our storm is churning away over in Arizona. As it slowly approaches, it will begin to bring warmer, moister air over the S Plains. It is just a matter of how warm and when.
venture 12-31-2014, 03:52 PM Concern going up some for more icing here in Central sections as Euro is coming in colder now. Remember...this is going to be a very thin line we will be on temp wise.
OkieHornet 12-31-2014, 04:28 PM for what timeline? tomorrow? or saturday?
sayyes 01-01-2015, 02:18 AM Nothing yet??
venture 01-01-2015, 03:24 AM Through Thursday main impacts will be to SC OK and SE OK. Freezing drizzle, sleet, and some light snow main impacts.
Friday is when the main storm system pushing into. 06Z NAM has a band of moderate to heavy precip run along I-44 from SW to NE OK. For the Metro proper...
By Noon Friday main push of precip will enter the Metro area. Up to 0.15" of precip possible. NAM has upper air profiles favorable for a Sleet/Freezing Rain miz with surface temps remaining below freezing. Through 3PM light precip will continue over far SE Metro areas and heavier precip over NW sections of the metro area. Upper air profiles will be borderline but a slight more favorable towards freezing rain, sleet, and snow. If NAM would verify, I would expect the outside possibility of Winter Storm or Ice Storm warnings for area from Stillwater to El Reno to Anadarko.
Moving through Friday, the main precip band will continue to push NW a bit. Temps with the forecast sounding profile in Norman still indicate icing conditions with sleet mixing. By 9PM precip will increase again over the Metro area with an additional 0.15" to 0.35" of precip possible. Temp profile is slight warmer but surface temps could still be at or just below freezing. By Midnight, the surface temp is critical as significant icing could take place with 0.35" to 0.5" over 3 hours during this time period. Through 6AM Saturday precip will finally start to shove east some. Another 0.15" to 0.25" of precip possible. Upper air temps look to favor more sleet/snow during this time period.
00Z Operational GFS isn't much different. It has the precip band on the east side of the Metro versus mostly on the west. Temp profiles are slightly colder as well for each time period.
Needless to say...late Thursday through early Saturday could be a pretty big deal around here. Keep an eye on the temps as we will be a degree or two away from a major winter storm or a very cold rain.
venture 01-01-2015, 03:44 AM For today only...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
341 AM CST THU JAN 1 2015
OKZ021>031-033>035-011745-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-150102T0000Z/
BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...ANADARKO...
YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...S EMINOLE...
HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART
341 AM CST THU JAN 1 2015
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.
* TIMING: PATCHY SNOW FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...CHANGING TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
* MAIN IMPACT: VERY LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.
* OTHER IMPACTS: SLICK SPOTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON SIDEWALKS AND
PARKING LOTS.
venture 01-01-2015, 04:12 AM 06Z GFS is aligned pretty well with the 06Z NAM. I would imagine OUN will let the Winter Wx Adv for today play out before doing the next set of headlines to avoid confusion.
John1744 01-01-2015, 07:57 AM A couple local TV mets are seeing what Venture is as well, looks like tomorrow if the models play out could get really ugly in our area.
Tydude 01-01-2015, 10:20 AM KOCO 5 is saying that the new models is saying that OKC metro could get alot of freezing rain which could get ugly here in OKC
Anonymous. 01-01-2015, 11:15 AM NAM and GFS pretty much both agree that a train of precip is going to be draped over I-44 corridor for a pretty long duration. Same time, the warm nose on the north-end will be trying to push west.
Think of it as a very large scale letter "S". The top half is warm moist air trying to push northwest, the bottom half is the colder, dryer air trying to fill in to the southeast. Now depending how much of this warm air mixes into the already-in-place cold air at the surface, we could just see an extremely cold rain and some vegetation icing. Also the rate at which precip is falling will come into the temperature equation (Remember last early December when we were under ice storm warnings, but the rain fell so fast that it actually warmed the shallow air at the surface enough to not cause huge issues).
Also models are trending at the wrap-around being more close-knit to the main precip shield. This could result in the potential for snow banding to be closer to the main body of OK as opposed to NW/N areas of the state.
Right now I would say SW and WC OK look to be money spot for ice-storm - followed up by getting hit with wrap-around sleet/snow.
Here in OKC, it is a tough call, going to have to play it by hour as we watch temperature behavior and the precip move in.
s00nr1 01-01-2015, 12:44 PM http://www.spia-index.com/spia-images/wfoTotalIce.png
John1744 01-01-2015, 02:45 PM http://i.imgur.com/oBN2g7G.png
NWS just revised their thinking a bit, local TV mets seem to be learning a bit heavier on ice in central OK but that rain band is pretty close.
venture 01-01-2015, 03:21 PM 18Z NAM Update...
Main wave of precip will get into the metro between noon and 3PM tomorrow. Looks like about 0.15" to 0.25" of precip by then. Forecast sounding has surface temps at like 33°F. Through the rest of the day on Friday and into the overnight, temps are almost completely stationary and remain that way through Saturday morning.
This could lead to major icing concerns if we get this precip forecast...
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/18/SGP/namSGP_prec_precacc_042.gif
Easy180 01-01-2015, 03:33 PM Have co workers that will be out in this mess tomorrow. If that forecast holds true would the icing be mostly bridges etc since it is slightly above freezing?
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