Do we know what to expect for the drive home this afternoon? I'm going from I-40 and Council to Norman.

Some intensifying banding coming back into OKC from W OK.

Looking back towards Amarillo, a very heavy snowband has formed. If this sticks together, it will be in OK this afternoon.


Per radar trend, the snowband looks to be setting up over I-40 through TX panhandle, we will have to see how it has evolved as it moves into OK.

Snowing pretty hard in NW OKC now (11:05 AM) - smaller flakes than earlier this morning but coming down pretty good!

yeah looking at the wundermap that system out in the TX panhandle is pretty big

yeah looking at the wundermap that system out in the TX panhandle is pretty big

Let's hope that continues the NE trend and misses OKC to the north.

Looks like this band will setup directly over I-40. Afternoon drive is going to be a problem.


I understand NWS modifying the forecast and maps to keep up with current trends. But at what point do they make it an actual forecast, instead of "nowcasting" the current events. Seems pointless sometimes...

Let's hope that continues the NE trend and misses OKC to the north.

no thanks, I enjoy a heavy snow

It has been snowing in some form for over an hour straight in north OKC.

Think it would be fair to say this snow band back to west is increasing some as it approaches OKC. Could make for interesting drive home at rush hour.

Cancelled classes at OU starting at 1:30pm. Should be a fun drive home.

Thank god I use the turnpike.

Coming down pretty good at Tinker.

Really nice brush-pattern banding showing up on radar over most of I-40. Could get some 1"+ hour rates out of some of these bands.

Heavy snow coming down at OUHSC.

Quite a dusting!

8am this morning:
10256

Just now:
10255

Will any of this be cleared by tomorrow morning? I have college then.

Will any of this be cleared by tomorrow morning? I have college then.

Most likely what you see out there now is how it will be in the morning.

Looks like back edge of the heaviest stuff will be through OKC in the next hour. Then tapering off to light showery type stuff heading into tonight.

If I had to take a stab, I would say N OKC towards Edmond area will be the accumulation winner.

Looks like back edge of the heaviest stuff will be through OKC in the next hour. Then tapering off to light showery type stuff heading into tonight.

If I had to take a stab, I would say N OKC towards Edmond area will be the accumulation winner.

Funny how that works out. Models ping S of I-40 for a day or two and north gets it. :) Margin of error...margin of error.

Funny how that works out. Models ping S of I-40 for a day or two and north gets it. :) Margin of error...margin of error.

Speaking of models, anything still coming later this week? My parents are trying to determine when to leave Michigan for their drive down here...

Funny how that works out. Models ping S of I-40 for a day or two and north gets it. :) Margin of error...margin of error.

Snow is just a total bastard to forecast. People were yelling bust in OKC last night and this morning (because no one lives anywhere else). Meanwhile you can easily yell bust in Norman and points southward where the heavier snow was actuallyforecasted to fall.

Models never picked up on the I-40 snowband's location - even while it was on-going.



Looking ahead, waiting for the 18Z to come in completely, then we will see what we have.

A few quick measurements in the front yard netted about a 3 inch average here in NW OKC.

Snow is just a total bastard to forecast. People were yelling bust in OKC last night and this morning (because no one lives anywhere else). Meanwhile you can easily yell bust in Norman and points southward where the heavier snow was actuallyforecasted to fall.

Models never picked up on the I-40 snowband's location - even while it was on-going.


It's been humorous watching the forecast constantly change today in Tulsa as to how long and how much it's supposed to snow. The forecast leading up to today had snow on and off, then this morning it was just supposed to be a trace that stopped before noon, and it just keeps being extended now. We're not getting a ton of snow up here, but it's been a steady light snow all day. I think we're up to an inch?

I'm really anxious about Friday as well because I really need to head down to OKC for a big event.

Went out and stuck a ruler in the top of the truck that has been sitting in the drive all day and it's right at 5 inches,little above. NW OKC

David Payne hyping up the Thursday - Friday storm saying it's looking bigger and nastier than today's.

Mike Morgan's forecast of 5.1" this weekend is definitely worse but at least not too scary high by Oklahoma winter weather standards.

Mike Morgan's forecast of 5.1" this weekend is definitely worse but at least not too scary high by Oklahoma winter weather standards.

Payne predicted 5 inches. Morgan had to go a tenth more.

I'm in the Dallas metroplex for work, came down yesterday afternoon and it took way longer than it should have. Noting but solid ice down here so I'm spent my "work" day hanging out in the hotel

...and just like that, no one is screaming 5" anymore. That's fine with me.

Okay time to start on the next storm. 12Z loaded in for the most part.

Tonight into Wednesday, Dallas and SE OK - it is your time to shine with snow. Looks like a strong, compact low will develop out of C TX and move directly over NE TX and SE OK then into AR. Winter Storm Warnings posted for this area that forecast up to 5 inches of snow (which is significant for this area).

Looking ahead for the main body of OK:

GFS - warmer, multi-day storm beginning Friday. Has smallest winter impact of the models and takes most of the heavy snow into extreme NW OK and into KS. GFS tries to turn any frozen precip into rain Saturday and Sunday, then possibly going back to winter late Sunday into Monday. (high uncertainty exists with temps/timing)

NAM - colder, multi-day storm beginning Friday. Has largest winter impact with Friday setting things off with large wave of snow into Friday night over the main body of OK. (Will have to watch for the potential at significant snowfall over multiple days heading into weekend)


Overall forecast certainty is low, the track of the low seems pretty-well decided on, but we have seen this change even hours away from event. The temperatures are all over the place, and the amount of falling moisture is still very up in the air.

I think our best bet is to wait for the storm Wednesday morning to shove off to the east from TX - then we should have a better idea of the weekend storm's plans.

Wow.....watching the locals last night they made it sound like it was a sure deal we would get significant snowfall now it appears just the opposite. At this point I welcome any and all forms of moisture.

I am not sure what the local mets are forecasting and with how much confidence.

All I know is being overly confident about a winterstorm for Oklahoma in Feb/March that is 4-5 days away must mean you are a wizard.

So when is this next storm going to come into the metro area? How much snow is expected and how long will it last? Should we go to the store on Thurs. and stock up for 3 days-5day-a week? Does anyone have the answers? I don't watch the local weather much anymore. When I go to the weather chan. site it seems to always be wrong.

KOCO said 1 inch in OKC Friday - Saturday. 2 inches out western Okla. Backed way off the 5 plus inches they were calling for yday.

Small snowband developing in TX PH with the upper part of this low that will be sweeping across N TX. If it holds together it could make a run along I-40 and areas south.

Will wait for morning runs to comment more on weekend storm.

Nm

At this point in the game does Saturday look worse than Friday?

Looks like lost of moisture from Sat morning on into early next week but Sunday and after temps in mid-40s or higher. Which I would think means that Saturday is the higher chance of winter precipt and we just get cold rain Sunday into next early next week.

This season has just been completely ridiculous on how poorly the models handle everything so close to when things happen. This coming weekend is a good example...

Friday
NAM - Light snow SW OK early, spreads across OK south of I-40 through the day ending by evening.
GFS - Very slight chance for light snow over far SW OK around midday, but otherwise dry.

Saturday
NAM - Light snow starts across southern OK after daybreak and moves north to the KS line by 10AM. Light snow continues Central & Eastern OK until late afternoon, some change over to a mix over SC and SE OK. Moves all into Eastern OK by evening.
GFS - Light snow developing after noon in NW OK, moves east with a mix over the eastern half of the state by evening and changes to rain. Rest of the state dry most of the day on Saturday.

Yea I think it is also the way the storms are coming down out of the Pacific. These are very large powerful storms that are creeping along. And during the creeping, smaller storms (lows) are coming up through the moisture stream out of the SW.

We are used to the main storm system just trucking right along and not getting hung up around the 4 corners region. Last night, the one that has been shooting systems all over the S and SE US finally came out across TX. Those are much easier to track and forecast.

The storm coming this weekend is much like the last one, it will be spawning these small lows that sometimes are and sometimes aren't as significant as models predict.

This season has just been completely ridiculous on how poorly the models handle everything so close to when things happen. This coming weekend is a good example...

Friday
NAM - Light snow SW OK early, spreads across OK south of I-40 through the day ending by evening.
GFS - Very slight chance for light snow over far SW OK around midday, but otherwise dry.

Saturday
NAM - Light snow starts across southern OK after daybreak and moves north to the KS line by 10AM. Light snow continues Central & Eastern OK until late afternoon, some change over to a mix over SC and SE OK. Moves all into Eastern OK by evening.
GFS - Light snow developing after noon in NW OK, moves east with a mix over the eastern half of the state by evening and changes to rain. Rest of the state dry most of the day on Saturday.

I wonder how the models will handle the severe storms and such as we transition into big time spring storms. Kinda makes me nervous if the models have been handing out crap info with regards to the winter weather storm systems which are less life threatening. Hopefully things will improve with them as we get into spring.

I wonder how the models will handle the severe storms and such as we transition into big time spring storms. Kinda makes me nervous if the models have been handing out crap info with regards to the winter weather storm systems which are less life threatening. Hopefully things will improve with them as we get into spring.

Traditionally we have a completely different pattern then versus a big cut off low in the SW that just sits and spins.

This season has just been completely ridiculous on how poorly the models handle everything so close to when things happen. This coming weekend is a good example...

Friday
NAM - Light snow SW OK early, spreads across OK south of I-40 through the day ending by evening.
GFS - Very slight chance for light snow over far SW OK around midday, but otherwise dry.

Saturday
NAM - Light snow starts across southern OK after daybreak and moves north to the KS line by 10AM. Light snow continues Central & Eastern OK until late afternoon, some change over to a mix over SC and SE OK. Moves all into Eastern OK by evening.
GFS - Light snow developing after noon in NW OK, moves east with a mix over the eastern half of the state by evening and changes to rain. Rest of the state dry most of the day on Saturday.

Pretty sure David Payne uses NAM cause I just saw that forecast on the news.

Pretty sure David Payne uses NAM cause I just saw that forecast on the news.

Mike Morgan called 1-2 inches thru Saturday turning to rain Sunday as temps rise. 2-4 far SW okla.

I just heard one of local weather guys yesterday that this upcoming storm was much stronger than this past one. I guess we just have to wait and see.

I just heard one of local weather guys yesterday that this upcoming storm was much stronger than this past one. I guess we just have to wait and see.

Might be but the temps should be warmer so hopefully a decent portion of it will just be good old rain

06Z NAM coming in line with GFS now.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015022606/namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

12Z is a little heavier in snow for both GFS and NAM.

This forecast will alter greatly depending on how well or poorly these waves of snow, that will ride out of the TX PH, stay together. Also sleet/freezing rain potential Sat/Sun/Maybe Monday. Any substantial snow/sleet pack will aid in cooling the lower atmosphere temps that will already be very close to freezing, which could result in icing potential.

12Z is a little heavier in snow for both GFS and NAM.

This forecast will alter greatly depending on how well or poorly these waves of snow, that will ride out of the TX PH, stay together. Also sleet/freezing rain potential Sat/Sun/Maybe Monday. Any substantial snow/sleet pack will aid in cooling the lower atmosphere temps that will already be very close to freezing, which could result in icing potential.

We have work-related events both Friday evening and Saturday day.

Are we saying Friday will likely be clear (downtown OKC), but Saturday we should expect 1-2" (far north OKC).

Trying to work on our "Plan B" ideas.

I swear I would hate being a meteorologist in OK during winter. All these models do is give you a really good range where to forecast a potential headache, knowing full well a diff of five miles or five degrees can make or break the whole outlook. Aiieeeee!!

Looks like this could turn into a doozie of a winter storm.

Looks like this could turn into a doozie of a winter storm.

How so? what has changed to make this a worse storm than has been predicted up to now?

Why is the metro area not included in the winter weather advisory? are we not going to get anything out of this now? Disapointing

18Z NAM...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015022618/nam4km_asnow_scus_21.png

SO how much snow is the NAM forecasting for central Oklahoma?

Looks like 2" judging by the legend on the right

Well what the heck was the guy on the radio saying up to 8 inches for? I was getting ready to bunker down for a couple days. Guess the stores will have plenty of milk and bread on the shelves this weekend afterall.

Latest SREFs have a mean of 2-3" for both Norman and OKC tomorrow, backing off their 5-6" means from the previous runs. Still wetter than a lot of the operational models seem to be suggesting, which is interesting. Then a high probability of freezing rain from late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, with 0.10-0.15" of ice accumulation during that time. Nasty couple of days coming up.

Latest SREFs have a mean of 2-3" for both Norman and OKC tomorrow, backing off their 5-6" means from the previous runs. Still wetter than a lot of the operational models seem to be suggesting, which is interesting. Then a high probability of freezing rain from late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, with 0.10-0.15" of ice accumulation during that time. Nasty couple of days coming up.

Doesn't sound that bad.

Winter Wx Advisory for roughly the SW 1/2 of the state. Includes McLain and Grady counties in the metro area.

Not really looking at anything that bad. 00Z NAM is much lighter tonight and GFS has barely an inch for anyone. Which naturally means someone will get 5 inches. LOL