For what it's worth...I see that the NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement for much of the state including the Metro counties for accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday. Not a lot different from what you guys are saying here, but the NWS is issuing a SWS.

The crazy Canadian model this morning...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022012/gem_asnow_scus_17.png

Thanks to you guys' models, I am going to be first in line at the grocery store!:)

I wonder if the local meteorologists have invested in stocks for bread and milk companies.

00z NAM coming more in line with the Canadian model. Widespread 2-8" totals across OK.

00z NAM coming more in line with the Canadian model. Widespread 2-8" totals across OK.

What day are we talking about for this?

NAM is basically putting a pretty decent snowband over C OK for Sunday eve. And then a large swath of snow moves up across state late Sunday night into Monday morning. GFS hinting at a further north track, which would bring heavier snow into southern parts of OK. GEM is also bullseyeing C OK for heavy snow.


GFS's late next week into the weekend storm looks epic. Then a train of storms coming through on long-range into March. Oh and temperatures that make your bones ache.

GFS's late next week into the weekend storm looks epic. Then a train of storms coming through on long-range into March. Oh and temperatures that make your bones ache.

Hopefully we get some moisture and it holds true. As far as bone aching temps, my family was down to nearly 20 below this morning. Tis the season. LOL

Short term update...line of showers from NE OK through Glencoe, Stillwater, Guthrie and Cashion. Don't be shocked to hear a clap of thunder tonight.

Snowfall forecast...

06Z GFS
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015022106/gfs_asnow_scus_18.png

06Z NAM
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015022106/namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

00Z GEM
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022100/gem_asnow_scus_15.png

Not looking good for my OKC-DFW-MCO route at 11am Monday.

Here are some fun 10-day totals:

Euro:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t34.0-12/11007585_10101575524024286_1806232077_n.jpg?oh=6cf d1f49ae5d6bad300a17381675db6a&oe=54EBA05C&__gda__=1424731597_75dfd53c24c1d610ad20066cc53bcbe 6

GFS:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t34.0-12/11006211_10101575526703916_1099449363_n.jpg?oh=5b3 dd11fd4b3f6e2788dc04eaabecd6d&oe=54EAB79D&__gda__=1424676172_28d9f6ee8604cf50e3f3bb6debcb492 3

18Z NAM rolling in....with some pretty impressive totals:

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_78HR.gif

Looks like everyone is locked into a heavy band of snow over some portion from Central or SC into SE OK.

Looks like everyone is locked into a heavy band of snow over some portion from Central or SC into SE OK.

For tomorrow/Monday or just throughout the week?

For tomorrow/Monday or just throughout the week?

Sunday to Monday.

Approx. what time tomorrow is this expected to start in the metro?

Mid afternoon-ish.

TV weather predicted only an inch on this first round in OKC thru Monday (KOCO). Sounds like lots more chances going into late next week and weekend.

TV weather predicted only an inch on this first round in OKC thru Monday (KOCO). Sounds like lots more chances going into late next week and weekend.

They may not be far off...but a lot of this is going to come down to a localized band of enhanced snow. NAM has it in the metro to points east. GFS has it over SE OK.

https://scontent-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10171161_588092377990086_3516244658641197213_n.png ?oh=18de4bf1f9b008c4cfa66ed144062285&oe=554ECE9B

https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10482243_588092374656753_568159023573102696_n.png? oh=ef29a1f60ae9898b4a8300dc66657e95&oe=558C4CD4&__gda__=1435295055_c22fdaf8ffe6acafa45becf6a86a681 c

Winter Wx Advisories are up now for the Metro.

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM
CST MONDAY.

* TIMING: BANDS OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY.

* SNOW IMPACT: WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES. HIGHER TOTALS OF SNOW...PERHAPS IN THE THREE TO FIVE
INCH RANGE...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-40. A WINTER
STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED ONCE THIS POTENTIAL BECOMES CLEARER.

* SLEET IMPACTS: A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS TEXAS... ARDMORE...AND COALGATE. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF
SLEET MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE-HALF TO TWO INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN AREAS WHERE ONLY SLEET OCCURS...UP TO ONE-HALF INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

coughbreadcoughmilkcough....darn throat is dry.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2015022200/namconus_asnow_scus_29.png

My grocery store is less than a mile away. I'll believe it when I see it...

GFS is further south than NAM with the heavy snow bad...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015022200/gfs_asnow_scus_16.png

Come on snow! Been waiting all winter for a good amount.

That's cool. I can deal with half an inch. It's next weekend I'm worried about.

Canadian

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015022200/gem_asnow_scus_8.png

http://i.imgur.com/5OYXhp1.png

NWS upped the local amounts a bit.

HRRR through 11PM tonight....

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015022214/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

Any chance of a complete bust at this point or is it guaranteed the OKC area will get something?

It's a complete bust. OKC is inside a massive dry slot. Another weather model that missed the mark.

It's a complete bust. OKC is inside a massive dry slot. Another weather model that missed the mark.

Actually...GFS is nailing this dead on. Wave 1 to the NW, which is what happened. Wave 2 to the Southeast...which is happening. Wave 3 late tonight and tomorrow is where the questions remain.

HRRR is handling things well right now too. It is forecasting light precip to increase over the next hour or two and move up into at least the Southern metro area (where some precip is already being reported). This would last until about 10PM until Wave 3 comes through overnight/tomorrow morning.

Thanks, Venture. Hope things get interesting soon. Nothing happening in Edmond.

Venture, do you have the snow totals for the thurs/Fri/sat storm from the Euro?

Venture, do you have the snow totals for the thurs/Fri/sat storm from the Euro?

I don't pay for it, so no. :) I haven't checked wunderground yet to add them up.

Advisories were dropped for North Central OK...and they are least likely to see any accumulation with Wave 3 tonight/tomorrow. HRRR forecast position of Wave 3 at 3AM still has it pretty far off the SW...so probably in here closer to rush hour.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015022218/t5/1ref_t5sfc_f15.png

My thoughts on accumulations for the Metro area for the rest of this system.

Today...scattered flurries and sleet today - no major issues at all.
Tonight/Tomorrow...main wave 3 comes through. I expect much of the higher totals to be along/south of I-40 as NAM has stuck to for a couple days now. GFS is still holding back on moisture with this next wave, so there is always a chance we don't see much of anything. If NAM verifies and HRRR seems to be trending that way, we very well could see a heavier band that gets 3-6" of snow late overnight and tomorrow somewhere from SW OK through Central or South Central OK into Eastern OK. The band will likely be very narrow - to the point where someone like Moore could get an inch, but Norman could get 5 and Purcell gets 1. Not saying that is the forecast for those cities...just putting it in perspective.

Still not 100% on totals tonight due to GFS being an outlier this close in.

My thoughts on accumulations for the Metro area for the rest of this system.

Today...scattered flurries and sleet today - no major issues at all.
Tonight/Tomorrow...main wave 3 comes through. I expect much of the higher totals to be along/south of I-40 as NAM has stuck to for a couple days now. GFS is still holding back on moisture with this next wave, so there is always a chance we don't see much of anything. If NAM verifies and HRRR seems to be trending that way, we very well could see a heavier band that gets 3-6" of snow late overnight and tomorrow somewhere from SW OK through Central or South Central OK into Eastern OK. The band will likely be very narrow - to the point where someone like Moore could get an inch, but Norman could get 5 and Purcell gets 1. Not saying that is the forecast for those cities...just putting it in perspective.

Still not 100% on totals tonight due to GFS being an outlier this close in.

Scratching my post as I was referencing the NWS Tulsa discussion

Things are starting to get icy here in south Fort Worth and all schools in DFW are closed tomorrow.

I'll be surprised if anything happens overnight.

I'll be surprised if anything happens overnight.

You are in Edmond...so like I pointed out earlier...don't expect much. Accumulating snow will be I-40 and south.

I'll be surprised if anything happens overnight.

One of the FB weather guys I follow agrees with you. Saying latest model trends and radar are pointing to squat for OKC on this last wave.

Some friends of ours always joke that MAPS 4 should be "Dome the City" (as obvious protector from tornadoes) but damn when winter rolls around, it's like the city is already domed against winter precip lately. What's a brother gotta do to get a snow day around here? :)

Nw OKC, thank you very much :-)

Damon Lane put on Twitter it'll form in the TX panhandle over night and be in the metro around 0900.

So many different forecasts....News9 said 5-8am.

Time line for the next and final round (until Wednesday/Thursday)...

NAM 00Z
Mixed precip develops over W TX by 3AM and pushes into the Texoma (SW OK/NW TX) area by 6AM. Mix of sleet and snow. Moisture moves north and reaches I-40 by 9AM with mostly snow down south to the Red River which some sleet mixing in around the river and in SE OK. Snow ends in SW OK and begins to pull out of C OK by 3PM. Most precip ends statewide by 6PM. Forecast amounts will depend on any banding being setup. NAM has roughly two bands. One will run from Hobart to Clinton to the North Metro area to Tulsa and NE...generally 1" of snow in this band. North of it a dusting or less. Band 2 runs from Altus to Lawton to Pauls Valley and east. This one NAM has 2-4" from I-35 and to the west...and running from Norman to the North to the river on the south. East of I-35 it has amounts ranging from 3 to 6 inches.

GFS 00Z
Light snow starts in SW OK by 6AM and moves up to I-40 or slightly north of there through Noon. All precips ends by 6PM with a little left over in Eastern OK. Metro area's timeline is pretty much on par with NAM...9AM to 3PM. Any potential banding of course will come into play. Forecast amounts differ compared to NAM. South of I-40 and west of I-35 appears to be generally 2-4" with a pocket of 4-6" over far SW OK. Then north of that area until about Woodward-Enid-Stillwater-McAlester...about 1". North of this less than an inch. Metro area has around 1" north of a line from Yukon to Norman to Asher. Along and south of that line around 2 inches.

HRRR through Noon...

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015022303/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

Last update until morning...

@ 2AM - Precip is starting to pick up over West Texas and Western North Texas. Some echoes also starting to show up in SW OK. This wave includes light to moderate precip at this time. Precip development is a bit ahead of schedule compared to the latest HRRR run. Based on the model, precip is/was forecast to reach SW OK by 4-5AM and then arrive the metro around 9AM - a familiar time based on my last update. The main shield is expect to pass by Central OK by noon, with a lingering band of snow that should exit by...yes - 3PM. Current project orientation of this band is right along I-40. Keep in mind any variance of placement of this band could mean one location will get a dusting to an inch, while another could see up to 3 inches.

06Z NAM maintains two to three main bands of precip to form. One would stretch from far SW OK up I-44 to the southern metro area. Another from Wichita Falls through South central OK. Based on forecast precip amounts, it is quick possible that areas in these bands could see up to 3 to 4 inches of snow or more.

Southern Plains Radar Image (this will auto-update)...
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southplains_loop.gif

Okay one last quick blurb. Precip developing pretty quicking now over SW quarter of OK. Don't be shocked to see some snow and possibly sleet scattered about before day break.

It's sleeting pretty good right now here in south Norman.

Drive to work was perfectly fine. Roads were bone dry with some light blowing snow. OKC got missed ... again.

All the roads in OKC I've driven are now covered and slick. NW to downtown.

Roads are definitely covered, but not slick. Maybe in spots. Made for a pretty drive!

I hit several slick spots. Mostly pulling a away from stops.

Big flakes are coming down now!

How much will Nw Okc get out of this? Getting ready to go brave the snow covered streets.

Visibility driving may be worse than the streets. Memorial/Macarthur area - very hard to see at times while driving into blowing snow. Be safe! Keep those updates coming Venture!

Main area of precip just about fully east of I-35. One more band extending well back in the panhandle is moving into W OK now. Not expecting much of an impact from that though unless you are lined up right under it.

Local roads are pretty crummy here in Norman. Saw multiple cars slide around on the snow, especially at the hill at Imhoff/Berry. The more traveled main roads around campus are faring a bit better.