Any new updates? What's in store for the metro tonight and in the morning?

Any new updates? What's in store for the metro tonight and in the morning?



I was wondering since no chatter here, if we should take stations word for precipitation tonight......

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015021523/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

All models running well too warm right now. 00z HRRR about 3-5 degrees above current sfc obs. Makes for an interesting forecast.

HRRR seems pretty insistent on putting out 4-6"+ of sleet and snow north of OKC through tomorrow. Seems to have been trending southward a bit over the course of this afternoon/evening though perhaps it has come as far south as it is going to.

I'm hoping for some thunder tonight. :)

Elevated surfaces are icing here in Surrey Hills. My car is covered with ice.

HRRR seems pretty insistent on putting out 4-6"+ of sleet and snow north of OKC through tomorrow. Seems to have been trending southward a bit over the course of this afternoon/evening though perhaps it has come as far south as it is going to.

I'm hoping for some thunder tonight. :)

I'd say there is a decent shot at that.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/00/SGP/rapSGP_con_mucape_009.gif

Well, it's 30-31 degrees here on the far NW side. So what's coming down is freezing.

Now we are getting light snow.

Elevated surfaces are icing here in Surrey Hills. My car is covered with ice.

Awesome, I live north of Sundance and get off at 3 am.....ugh.

Heavy sleet/ice band setting up now. Looks like just north of i44 corridor could be hit hardest. Judt got home from the store and all cars in the lot were being scraped.

Channel 9 spotters reporting lightning & thunder in multiple locations. Live shot from Kingfisher showed heavy sleet coming down.

Very heavy sleet here in the far NW metro at this time. Just pouring down.

Heavy sleet starting in Surrey Hills.

Heavy sleet starting in Surrey Hills.

Debating whether this is sleet or small hail! Memorial/Mac area.

Yea thunder sleet to eventual thunder snow will be possible in these pockets.

As sleet continues, the air column will cool enough to allow snow transition.

Pretty intense lightning for this type of event:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B98Gb4NCEAEZONl.jpg

Why kind and how much accumulation is there gonna be for the NW metro?

Getting thunder now in Surrey Hillls/far NW OKC.

Why kind and how much accumulation is there gonna be for the NW metro?

Hard to say. If the precip keeps developing off to the W/SW. Then it could be pretty significant all things considered. However, if the development shuts off and everything pushes east, that may be all she wrote.

Just have to monitor radar trends.

Great lightning and just now a huge crack of thunder.

Sorry for being absent...Sunday nights are bad for me. :-/ Anon, Loco and S00nr got this covered pretty well. :)

A lot of wait and see on this development in W and SW OK. Norman is pretty dull right now, but a batch coming up from Chickasha/Gracemont/Anadarko should give us something to look out for a bit.

Thundering here in NW OKC right now. The ground is covered in a snow/sleet mix.

Pretty heavy sleet and snow here right now, visibility down pretty good...can only see about 4-5 houses down.

Tulsa area is going to pick up a nice little snowstorm from this.

Really heavy banding setting up from guthrie to Tulsa with embedded 2"+ rates.

Last push moving through now. The isolate light precip for the rest of the night.

The wife and I are driving back from Auburn, AL starting Monday morning. On our way here, we took the northern route and stayed overnight in Memphis. Due to weather, I suggested we take the southern route, stay in Shrevport Monday night and travel through Dallas on Tuesday, then north. Any idea when and where we could see problem areas?

The wife and I are driving back from Auburn, AL starting Monday morning. On our way here, we took the northern route and stayed overnight in Memphis. Due to weather, I suggested we take the southern route, stay in Shrevport Monday night and travel through Dallas on Tuesday, then north. Any idea when and where we could see problem areas?

Based on weather advisories alone, I would say take the southern route.

With this storm gone, on to the next. GFS has locked in on a potential long duration precip "event" starting overnight into Saturday morning. Basic timeline looks like this...

Saturday AM - Light Rain
Saturday PM - Snow NW to NE. Mix to Rain rest of OK. Changing overnight to snow Northern half, Mix Central and South Central, and rain SE.

Sunday AM - Mix SE and SW. Snow NW. Dry elsewhere.
Sunday PM - Snow I-40 and north. Mix I-40 and south.

Monday AM - Mix South of I-40.
Monday PM - Snow North, Mix South.

Tuesday AM - Snow North and Central.
Tuesday PM - Drying out.

The following system is projected to come in around March 2nd starting off at rain that afternoon changing to a mix overnight and eventually all snow by Tuesday morning ending overnight into Wednesday.

Still lots of things in play that will change, but at least we are getting precip and things aren't burning down.

Next weekend's storm looks fun. GFS always gets a little crazy claiming multi-day events. Then 4 days out or so it consolidates to something normal.

I am just glad to see a pattern change. Even having a shot at winter precip is much better than bone dry and cold.

With this storm gone, on to the next. GFS has locked in on a potential long duration precip "event" starting overnight into Saturday morning. Basic timeline looks like this...

Saturday AM - Light Rain
Saturday PM - Snow NW to NE. Mix to Rain rest of OK. Changing overnight to snow Northern half, Mix Central and South Central, and rain SE.

Sunday AM - Mix SE and SW. Snow NW. Dry elsewhere.
Sunday PM - Snow I-40 and north. Mix I-40 and south.

Monday AM - Mix South of I-40.
Monday PM - Snow North, Mix South.

Tuesday AM - Snow North and Central.
DryingTuesday PM - out.
The following system is projected to come in around March 2nd starting off at rain that afternoon changing to a mix overnight and eventually all snow by Tuesday morning ending overnight into Wednesday.

Still lots of things in play that will change, but at least we are getting precip and things aren't burning down.

Venture are the days at the top the ones concerning this coming up weekend of Feb 21st? and then another system for March 2nd? or is the above you are talking about for the March 2nd storm?

Venture are the days at the top the ones concerning this coming up weekend of Feb 21st? and then another system for March 2nd? or is the above you are talking about for the March 2nd storm?

First set starts this coming Saturday the 21st.

yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

nooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!

wow!

Sorry guys an idiot at my work thought he would be funny and log into my account and post comments.

Next weekend's storm looks fun. GFS always gets a little crazy claiming multi-day events. Then 4 days out or so it consolidates to something normal.

Or it just nearly eliminates its impact on Oklahoma...like the last 2 runs now. LOL

Or it just nearly eliminates its impact on Oklahoma...like the last 2 runs now. LOL

I wonder why it keeps getting us all excited then pulls the carrot away where we cant get it?

I wonder why it keeps getting us all excited then pulls the carrot away where we cant get it?

This is how forecast models work. One little change somewhere upstream can alter how things play out several days down the road. This is nothing new and why I don't bother getting excited until we are closer with significant run to run consistency.

The two GFS runs early this morning were straight comical. There was literally a donut hole of snowfall surrounding OK.

This is the kind of winter we have had, just can't catch a break and get a nice moisture dumping.

Saturday could be our first day for some marginal severe weather for the year.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_dewp_099.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_con_sbcape_105.gif

The 27th-28th looks like something... for now. It'll likely change since it's still over a week away. I'm just glad to see our pattern has got more active.

This weekend looks like it could be nice moisture with some storm chances, and then a shot of wrap-around snow on the way out.

Next week, the 25th-28th is starting to become more consistent with a winter storm. The speed and location of the low's track right now are finally favorable for main body of OK.

12Z GFS paints a nasty picture for mid-end of next week. COLD.

12Z GFS paints a nasty picture for mid-end of next week. COLD.

Nasty as in just COLD or Winter precip nasty? fingers crossed here...

Did anybody else see wet flakes yesterday in OKC at roughly 5-6 PM with a temp of 49F? It was pretty insane.

Nasty as in just COLD or Winter precip nasty? fingers crossed here...

Both scenarios are currently in play though I wouldn't get caught up too much in specifics this far out.

GFS has been consistent with the storm for the 25th timeframe. Right now it is very doomsday.

Here is an entirely too early snowfall forecast via the GFS:

10210

Our internal ECMWF running with a similar solution:

12pm Thursday
http://crimson.blackops.wdtinc.com/images/ecmwf_hires/north_america/2015021812/total_precipitation/2015021812_f198_north_america_total_precipitation. gif

Midnight Friday
http://crimson.blackops.wdtinc.com/images/ecmwf_hires/north_america/2015021812/total_precipitation/2015021812_f210_north_america_total_precipitation. gif

Please come true

Did anybody else see wet flakes yesterday in OKC at roughly 5-6 PM with a temp of 49F? It was pretty insane.

Yep. I drove into a rain/snow/sleet (raisneet?) mix at Council &Wilshire about 5:30 PM.

[QUOTE=s00nr1;869055]Here is an entirely too early snowfall forecast via the GFS:

Our internal ECMWF running with a similar solution:

Way too soon for a bread & milk run. I'll settle for "wet."

Any new model updates on this storm for the second half of next week? 25th - March 1st?

GFS 12Z is really random. I think it is an outlier run and probably isn't worth mentioning. Just for kicks, it brings a quick follow-up storm to this weekend that hits OK and N TX with a snowstorm on Monday. Then brings in the next system heading into next weekend with snow.

One thing that has been consistent, is it will be COLD for what looks like through the beginning of March.

GFS 12Z is really random. I think it is an outlier run and probably isn't worth mentioning. Just for kicks, it brings a quick follow-up storm to this weekend that hits OK and N TX with a snowstorm on Monday. Then brings in the next system heading into next weekend with snow.

One thing that has been consistent, is it will be COLD for what looks like through the beginning of March.

Well, I could go for a Monday snowstorm keep us posted on that if it continues to verify. I am hearing rumblings in other places and from NWS on the storm for next week. We need good cold air for snow so that is good. on a side note how do things look for Sunday afternoon this comming weekend the 22nd? have a birthday party planned for that afternoon with people driving in from Shawnee.

Well, I could go for a Monday snowstorm keep us posted on that if it continues to verify. I am hearing rumblings in other places and from NWS on the storm for next week. We need good cold air for snow so that is good. on a side note how do things look for Sunday afternoon this comming weekend the 22nd? have a birthday party planned for that afternoon with people driving in from Shawnee.

Well the Monday system...snowstorm should be used loosely depending on where you are. If 12Z GFS verifies...Northeast OK would have next to nothing. Maybe an inch central. Then mainly 1-3" NW through southern OK...higher amounts in North Texas and along the river. This just isn't our year.

Well just about to stick a fork in this one too unless something dramatically changes. Below is total precip through Tuesday.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021918/gfs_apcpn_scus_21.png

Yea 18Z is a mess. I have decided that winter storms more than 24 hours out is basically impossible to forecast for OK.

Yea 18Z is a mess. I have decided that winter storms more than 24 hours out is basically impossible to forecast for OK.

Yeah the models are just not able to handle anything this year. Not sure if it is just a moisture issue with the drought or what screwing them up.

GFS coming in with shot at rain/storms late tonight into tomorrow for about the NE half of OK.

Then cold air rushes in behind. A stalled out Low over the CO/NM border churns away and spits out pieces of energy (this is the storm that GFS was projecting to just come out full blown over the S Plains in the middle of the week. So right now it looks like it will bring up a small system across TX and kind of tap into the main low in CO. This will result in a very tough forecast for Sunday into Monday and eventually next weekend.

Accumulating snow across OK looks likely somewhere in OK Sunday night, best guess is somewhere in SW or SC OK where a band coming out of TX could be strong. Looks like Dallas area could have an icestorm, or sleet, or maybe just rain. All depends on the track and deepness of the cold air behind this first wave that will affect mostly AR into TN.

Looking ahead into next week, another chance at a system comes through around Friday, which also looks like winter.


So overall, the forecast is low confidence, but I will say that it looks like we will be cold and relatively active for a while - even looking beyond next week.