Don't ruin it for Bobby. He wants to play in the snow...skate on the ice.

Several of us would like snow, FYI. It definitely makes the lawn look good come spring. :)

Several of us would like snow, FYI. It definitely makes the lawn look good come spring. :)


True, but it doesn't always make the cars look so good after all of the accidents it causes. :)

True, but it doesn't always make the cars look so good after all of the accidents it causes. :)

Not my problem being are too stupid to know how to drive in it. LOL

Not my problem being are too stupid to know how to drive in it. LOL

True, but it would be your problem if one of them plow right into your car.

True, but it would be your problem if one of them plow right into your car.

That's where defensive driving comes in and being aware of people around you. Granted most drivers don't have the capability to be that aware of their surroundings and before they know it they are plowing into someone who spun out.

Well it looks like a cold rain is the game this weekend. Nice to get moisture, but sad we are missing yet another opportunity for snow. Looks like the snow from this system won't get cranking until the precip. spreads over MO and into IL.

The entire plains has really missed out on snowstorms this season. TX panhandle has really been the only memorable action.

Regardless, I'd rather have a steady rain that soaks into the ground.

As much as I want moisture, this is the weekend I'm moving my household goods back to OKC. Hopefully any snow waits until Sunday.

Or Tuesday... Going to the circus Sunday and Jack White Monday, don't need any snowy driving hassles until Tuesday when I can call in and work from home... :D

Regardless, I'd rather have a steady rain that soaks into the ground.

Isn't that what we're getting?

Isn't that what we're getting?

As far as I know. I'm just saying as opposed to those that want snow...

That's where defensive driving comes in and being aware of people around you. Granted most drivers don't have the capability to be that aware of their surroundings and before they know it they are plowing into someone who spun out.
I disagree with you but I'm not going to disrupt this thread with a debate about driving skills.

In a perfect world we would get a good amount of rain Saturday and then Sat night/Sun morn get some decent snowfall.

Last 3 runs of GFS have each rushed the colder air in more quickly for maybe a burst of snow as the precip moves out. Will keep watching as it evolves tonight.

Last 3 runs of GFS have each rushed the colder air in more quickly for maybe a burst of snow as the precip moves out. Will keep watching as it evolves tonight.

any ideas on how big of a burst of snow we are talking about ?

In a perfect world we would get a good amount of rain Saturday and then Sat night/Sun morn get some decent snowfall.

In a perfect world, it would rain or snow more than once a month.

GFS has had snowfall for us this coming week on Wednesday Night/Thursday for a couple runs now. Not much, but something.

All counties in Oklahoma got some rain with many locations getting at least .50. I got .76 in my rain gauge.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

Super boring pattern setting up for OK and most of the nation. The exception being northern Mississippi into Ohio valley and the Great Lakes region. They will continue to get shots of snow every few days.

Looks like us in OK will have one last shot a weak low to come through on Wednesday evening, but does not look very promising.

Definitely looks like a slow month so far. Going to just use this thread for February as well (thread title change requested already).

Winter Wx Advisory up for the NE OK counties under Tulsa's eye. Here slight chance for some sleet/freezing rain early this evening changing to snow before ending tonight.

Fascinating donut hole right over Oklahoma when compared to neighboring areas.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/10959837_1036978336319129_1067760480641215628_n.pn g?oh=d55ab333d3522fba561af1f8fa7b9a51&oe=55553C32&__gda__=1432424575_c3d8aed3ff4d843a899449ff27c17c2 0

So far only thing really showing up is a potential good sized storm around the 20th/21st.

Fascinating donut hole right over Oklahoma when compared to neighboring areas.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/10959837_1036978336319129_1067760480641215628_n.pn g?oh=d55ab333d3522fba561af1f8fa7b9a51&oe=55553C32&__gda__=1432424575_c3d8aed3ff4d843a899449ff27c17c2 0

it's a great visual to see the clearly defined boundary that is the rockies when it comes to severe weather.

GFS keeps hinting at a pattern shift by mid month going into the end of the month. If it plays out, should take the main storm track that has been well north recently down over us. This would definitely get us more active with storm systems coming through. Right now it does have a couple for the last 7 days of the month, with mixed precip types. Also could see severe weather start up in Texas with these systems as well.

Going into March we do see on average 3.9 tornadoes...so things will start getting more active - hopefully here soon...not so much for the severe stuff but for the moisture.

Last year I spoke early about how it was shaping up to be like 1988 tornado wise and that's pretty much exactly what happened. The following years though were also quite in 89 and 90...with 17 and 20 tornadoes respectfully. Then in 91 it came in with 73 and things were back to normal or above normal most years until 99 which most of us remember. However, when comparing I also have to take into consideration the drought in 2001-02 and its impact on the storm season in 2002. The drought was significant from roughly I-35 and west - similar to this most recent one. We had a very low tornado count of only 18 in 2002. However, 2003 came around and we saw how that worked out - 78 total including the F4 that went through S OKC, Moore, Midwest City, and Choctaw.

Point to take away there, it is always hard to draw parallels. Could this be like the late 80s where we will continue to have a very down storm season and continued drought, or will we snap back like we did in 2003. Something for us to think about and watch for while it pretty quiet right now. :)

GFS lately has been all over the place for pattern shift beginning next week.

Right now, best guess is a storm system somewhere around late this weekend into middle of next week.

00Z GFS run has a pattern change for the Southern Plains starting up this weekend. Hopefully this means more active weather (read: MOISTURE) to counter drought conditions. Image attached are the various storm systems projected to come through. Keep in mind, most of these systems have only 2-3 instances of run to run consistency, so these are not set in stone at all.


Storm system for the end of this weekend into early next week has a chance to bring a good variety of weather. Moderate rain, snow, and also the chance for a few storms over SW OK. Severe threat looks extremely low at this time, but the intensity of the storm system might allow for a few hail stones to come with the strongest cells.


The following weekend on the 22nd has another storm system coming through, but right now it appears to be mostly E OK.


Then on Monday the 23rd chance for some snow over the main body of OK. Followed by more winter precip chances on Wednesday the 25th.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/v/t1.0-9/10420051_582545881878069_7165049128438626883_n.png ?oh=8f1d86ca8736bbee27a7a3d57f594330&oe=55492BCD&__gda__=1432203025_7c43f5e43b229410a5aa72564575f79 9

https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10959525_582546725211318_861639862306043759_n.jpg? oh=ec534aee3200f1e851289eba54456713&oe=554C1880&__gda__=1432638909_7a77869157f1b2bd5bd58a2a8ebc747 d

Bread and milk watch in effect for Mon-Wed timeframe.

Bread and milk watch in effect for Mon-Wed timeframe.

I agree...details later tonight. :)

Timeline Review based on 00Z GFS and ECMWF...

Through 12AM Monday Morning
GFS - Precips moves in along/east of I-44. Light winter mix.
ECMWF - Winter mix or snow along/east of I-44.

6AM Monday
GFS - Winter mix continues over Central and Eastern OK. Light Rain over SW and SC OK.
ECMWF - Snow or winter mix all but far southern OK.

Noon Monday
GFS - Winter mix NE OK, light rain Central & Western OK. Moderate Rain SE OK.
ECMWF - Winter mix Central and East. Light rain south.

6PM Monday
GFS - Light Rain NE, Central, SW OK. Moderate rain/storms SE.Winter mix along KS border from NC to NW OK.
ECMWF - Light rain SE OK.

Midnight / 12AM Tuesday
GFS - Light rain SW, Moderate rain SC to SE. Winter mix near I-44. Snow NE, NC, and NW.
ECMWF - Light rain SE OK. Light snow NW OK.

6AM Tuesday
GFS - Snow all of OK except SE OK where it will be a winter mix or light rain.
ECMWF - Light snow SW to C to NE OK. Moderate snow NW. Winter mix SE OK.

12PM Tuesday
GFS - Snow Central and Eastern OK.
ECMWF - Light snow much of OK.

6PM Tuesday
GFS - Dry
ECMWF - Light snow SW, C, NE OK.

Midnight / 12AM Wednesday
GFS - Dry
ECMWF - Light snow C and E OK.

06Z GFS bumped up the snowfall amounts...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015021206/gfs_asnow_scus_29.png

Newest GFS brings wave of freezing rain/sleet early Monday morning. Then bring the main snow into N TX for Monday night into Tuesday. Bypassing main body of OK.

Track is going to be tricky with this one.

Yeah...GFS was good for about 3 runs and now dives way south. Apparently the Euro is doing the same thing. Eh, it's only Thursday. We'll see if this is the new trend or if it snaps back.

Yeah...GFS was good for about 3 runs and now dives way south. Apparently the Euro is doing the same thing. Eh, it's only Thursday. We'll see if this is the new trend or if it snaps back.

I say I snaps back wash after wash..

Ugh, right around when I plan on traveling as well. Would the precipitation on Monday be icy for north Texas? I also plan on driving to Nebraska on Tuesday, how are conditions up further north?

GEM really dumps on east OK... we'll see if that pans out. I'm thinking GFS will snap back by 00z tomorrow.

Ugh, right around when I plan on traveling as well. Would the precipitation on Monday be icy for north Texas? I also plan on driving to Nebraska on Tuesday, how are conditions up further north?

If you take the 12Z GFS as it is...Red River counties will be freezing rain or a mix. Nebraska on Tuesday looks dry...this is mostly a southern system.

I agree completely with Shreveport's NWS.....no consistency with the low placement. The low went from Shreveport LA or New Orleans....that seems fishy to me!

WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER...THEIR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY POOR. IN
PREVIOUS RUNS...THE MODELS TRACKED THE SFC LOW GENERALLY ALONG THE
RED RIVER BETWEEN OK/TX KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR MOST OF THE EVENT AND DELAYING ANY WINTRY PRECIP UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY WHEN THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. TODAY...THE MODELS ARE
DROPPING THE SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS IS RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COLDER SFC TEMPS BUT THE VERTICAL
PROFILE IS STILL TO WARM FOR WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE EVENT.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SMALL LOCATION DIFFERENCES IN THESE
FEATURES CAN RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURES AND LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP TYPES/AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME FRAME...THERE IS
A LOT OF ROOM FOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE POOR
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. /09/

With severe weather there really isn't any way to predict the season. 2013 started out very quiet and would have been if not for the three day systems that brought us the May 20th and May 31st tornadoes. I remember 1999 being fairly quiet other than the May 3-4 outbreak. All it takes is one outbreak to make it a memorable year. It does seem like it goes in cycles. The mid 1990s were relatively quiet and then it was very active in 1998 and 1999. It was then quiet in 2000 through 2002 before a very active 2003. 2004-07 were unmemorable years and then starting in 2008 things really cranked up, each spring being pretty active through 2013. Hopefully we are within a stretch of quiet years but like I said there isn't any way to really predict it.

2007 was memorable for rain. I think that was the year we had 58" or something.

GFS staying south with the 00Z run.

Well GFS has nearly dissolved this entire storm at this point. Trying to hang onto the wave of precip Sunday night into Monday.

Maybe NAM will shed some light as to what is happening as it comes into forecast window.

And it could just as easily come back, right? That's still 4 days away.

The 00Z Euro still has something...

http://i.imgur.com/Q1cmvSa.jpg

Yea 4 days is a long time. GFS has gone from 'full blown southern plain snow event' to 'maybe a mixed goodie bag with initial wave' in about 36 hours.

GEM and Euro still hanging onto hope. NAM will be viable very soon and obviously monitoring changes in the GFS.


I have a feeling everytime one of those Canada lows drops down across the Great Lakes and then rides up the NE coast for epic blizzards, it affects us in the southern plains dramatically in terms of how quickly lows are pulled east.

12Z NAM, GFS, and GEM are pretty much all on the same page at this point. Quick shot of precip overnight Sunday into early Monday and then dry. Snowfall wise...solutions are anywhere from a dusting for Central and Eastern OK, to maybe a couple inches. Nothing more than that really showing up now.

Morgan scared off the storm with his hype yesterday.

This season so far has been one big fail as far as winter storms go, maybe they should quit the hype train and just forecast these things 36-48 hours out.

Ukie and Canadian models are holding strong and telling the GFS it's out to lunch...

12Z Ukie Precip Totals...mix sleet/snow/freezing rain/rain

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif


12Z Canadian Snow Totals....

http://i.imgur.com/DIiCPN9.png

any potential issues for someone who is driving to St. Louis on Monday morning from OKC?

Ukie and Canadian models are holding strong and telling the GFS it's out to lunch...

12Z Ukie Precip Totals...mix sleet/snow/freezing rain/rain
http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

12Z Canadian Snow Totals....
http://i.imgur.com/DIiCPN9.png

Just a side comment...where in the world did this stupid "Ukie" nickname come from for the UK model? I see a couple use it on A/W and I have no idea why, but it just comes across like nails on a chalkboard. LOL

Okay about the models. So what we essentially have are GFS, NAM, ECMWF vs. UKMET and GEM. Historically I throw away anything GEM says unless every else is on board and UKMET can be out to lunch majority of the time. I'll reserve further judgement until we get closer and if there is a sudden snap back. There just aren't any signs of it yet. Some of the 12Z are still processing, so we'll see.

This season so far has been one big fail as far as winter storms go, maybe they should quit the hype train and just forecast these things 36-48 hours out.

Its really annoying when their giving driving condition forecasts and not spending much time on the actual storm system.

Its really annoying when their giving driving condition forecasts and not spending much time on the actual storm system.

sidenote, yesterday i heard damon lane talk about how the temp inside your car today would feel like 70-80 if you had your windows rolled up. so there's that added forecasting bonus now ;–)

12Z brought the low slightly further north than the last day of runs.

The 18Z that just came in for GFS has the storm notably further north and gives pretty much the entire Red River to Dallas region a good dumping of snow.


These crazy inconsistencies from run-to-run is why you have to watch this thread pretty much multiple times a day. So asking about drives and conditions 3 days out, will most likely warrant a poor result; however, I understand getting a general feel.

This has been a frustrating winter through and through. I need a snow day dammit. But at this point I'll take any precipitation. The maybe/maybe it wont/ and then finally bust in the forecast is getting old.

Winter Storm Watch up for South Central and Southeast OK for freezing rain/sleet accumulations. Looks like part of the Metro (SE of I-44) mostly likely to see any type of advisory put up for this.

Winter Storm Watch up for South Central and Southeast OK for freezing rain/sleet accumulations. Looks like part of the Metro (SE of I-44) mostly likely to see any type of advisory put up for this.

So whatever the heck it will be does this look like a Sun night into Mon morning then done type of event?

So whatever the heck it will be does this look like a Sun night into Mon morning then done type of event?

Mostly. However, NAM is showing snow coming through late Monday into Tuesday behind the system.

NAM and GFS pretty well lined up now. GEM even got in line as well. Main show tomorrow evening through early Monday and then maybe some scattered flurries on Tuesday if anything. At this point i'm expecting Winter Wx Advisories for counties along/east of I-44 to go out tomorrow morning. SE OK probably more specific FRZ RN Advisories.

Winter Wx Advisory up for all but the Western 1/3rd and 3 counties in far NE and SE OK. Snow appears to be confined to the Northern 3rd of the advisory area the rest will be sleet and freezing rain.

Newest NAM has a decently heavy precip. band developing overnight somewhere parallel with I-44 (puts the band north of I-44). Depending on where it sets up, could have some decent amounts of sleet/ice/snow.

Looks like models picking up another storm for the end of this week. This first storm will determine a lot for the next.