Norman's air temp has been dropping at least 2 degrees an hour since about 10pm. We are down to 36 so far now and it seems areas that are around 34 or lower are in the snow. So definitely agree change over isn't far off if this trend continues.

We are now moving over to a wet snow now in Norman. Heavy band of precip is starting to sink further south. This is starting to look like it could play out where areas from Norman and west could see some wet snow accumulation over the next few hours.

Brief update. Just as anticipated, temps in Norman and west continue to drop. Norman is now below freezing, while most Oklahoma County locations are still around 36.

HRRR indicates precip over the Metro area should end by 8AM. Things will need to be watched south of I-40 for the snow / freezing rain mix that we'll have now.

Snowing at the airport. Still a mix of rain but the snow is taking over

Back to rain only at the airport.

Starting to get a nice dusting in Norman now. Roads should remain fine though.

Looks like NAM wasn't too far off, just slightly aggressive on temperatures becoming favorable for snow to reach surface.

Kind of a waste of an epic snowband. To put it simply, most everyone along I-40 would have close to 10 inches of snow if it had been a handful of degrees cooler.

Amarillo is shut down with up to 15 inches in some spots.

Right now it looks like our next storm (Feb 1) will be rain. Models can't decide if it will be cold enough. Regardless, some beneficial moisture will be nice.

Newest GFS for end of month/beginning of Feb storm is pretty intense. Very powerful storm as it looks right now.

Newest GFS for end of month/beginning of Feb storm is pretty intense. Very powerful storm as it looks right now.

This has pretty well been the trend for the last week, but yesterday it appeared to have a hiccup for one or two runs taking the storm way south. Now it is bumped back up and the last 2-3 runs have it being heavy rain to snow. I'm sure things will keep bouncing around a bit, but it has been very consistent at least in having a storm system around the time frame in the general area.

Yea the recent consistency of GFS is mind blowing. If it means anything for our next storm, we may be measuring snow in feet, not inches.

with a disturbance 9 days out, where is its location today?

Yea the recent consistency of GFS is mind blowing. If it means anything for our next storm, we may be measuring snow in feet, not inches.

I think that speaks volumes about the work everyone put in to the upgrades that went in a week ago.

Looks like it has also went back the colder/snow solution it had for awhile with the 18Z run...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012218/gfs_asnow_scus_41.png

with a disturbance 9 days out, where is its location today?

It isn't easy to pick out this specific piece of energy/storm system...but my best guess is that right now it is over northern Russia. However, it is going to be a combination of things. Around Jan 30th a low appears it will form off the California coast and dive ESE through Texas and then start to curve back NE to the east of us. There is also what appears to be an ejection of energy come from British Columbia starting around the 28th and getting here on the 31st where it combines with the low moving through Texas.

that's a lot of moving parts, huh? sounds like all it takes is one part of that to wobble around in location or time for it to mess things up for good or bad.

Early morning GFS depicts southern track of storm again. Dropping pretty much a foot of snow over the northern half of TX. Have to see what we got for 12Z.

GFS still sticking with a heavy precip solution for next weekend -- we shall see where the cold air is:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012412/gfs_asnow_scus_37.png

Beauty of a storm shaping up for late next week/weekend and early following week. Same system we've been talking about for days now, but if the 12Z GFS verifies it would do wonders in helping with the drought and fire concerns going forward. Granted this will all change later today, but you know...

Onset of precip starts the evening of the 30th over Western OK. Looks like a rain/snow mix over many areas. This will spread over much of the state through Midnight going into the 31st with the primary precip type being rain. Cold front will enter the state starting around Noon on Saturday the 31st. Most precip will be liquid prior to then with the state getting some good amounts of water - heavier south. Moderate/heavy rain continues through Sunday morning as the front approaches I-44 around or just after noon. Behind the front heavy snow appears to be the rule. Full change over in OKC should take place between Noon and 6PM (yeah that is a big window right now). Snow should end by very early Monday morning just after midnight on the 2nd.

Liquid (melted down) totals look pretty great for the state. The metro could see over 1.5-2" of precip. Snowfall of course is a rough guess right now, but the Metro could see a quick 3-6" snowfall before it ends. One thing that will need to be watched of course is the speed of the cold air entering in. General rule of thumb is cold air typically moves in faster than what models predict. Right now it looks like we should be below freezing from 925 MB level (roughly 1000' up) by 11AM - this should start the change over to snow. Surface temps aren't expected to be below freezing until 6PM. The key thing here is the bulk of the heavy precip rolls in late Sunday morning when temps start falling. If the cold air gets in faster than expected - big time snow for more people. As predicted this morning...a good balance of heavy rain followed by heavy snow.

Either way...GFS has locked on to this thing for a significant time now. That says something.

Precip Forecasts...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_prec_precacc_240.gif

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012412/gfs_asnow_scus_40.png

Channel 5 an 9 is giving this a 20 percent of rain on a week from Today high of 43.

Great minds think alike, David. :)

I am hoping that we get some major snow next weekend but the way things have been going I wont be shocked at all if we get zilch.

this is going to be a great stretch of nice weather for most of the next week. 50s and 60s and sunny.

Local mets still aren't buying the storm on the 1st. Most are just showing a 20% chance of rain.

Local mets still aren't buying the storm on the 1st. Most are just showing a 20% chance of rain.

I doubt they will really latch on to it until another day or 2 passes and the forecast is with in the window for the NWS office as well. When Gary came to my class to speak several years ago, he made it clear that most of the time they just copy/paste the NWS forecast. Sure track can always be different than what forecasts are saying now, but I would say it is pretty well set that the region will have a decent storm that weekend come through. Specifics will get fine tuned as we get closer.

I'll add...when NWS says they are favoring one model (Euro) at the moment, that's where the locals will tend to go. With the recent upgrades to the GFS and the accuracy it has had with this new version...I'm favoring that for now. Not saying things can't change. Just like with hurricane forecasts...day 3 through 5 that margin of error on track gets much wider - no different here.

Curious as to what the Feb 13-15 weekend might look like in central and south central OK and north Texas. Any crystal ball info you might have is appreciated. Will accept any science based predictions as well :)

Weather Channel App is saying on Saturday High of 49 60 percent chance of Rain

Weather Channel App is saying on Saturday High of 49 60 percent chance of Rain

Good thing we don't rely on the Weather Channel for anything here. ;)

Really the forecast is still some what of a toss up for this system. GFS has now gone 3-4 runs being warmer but still with the most precip. While Euro is a bit drier but colder.

KOCO 5 says that North Oklahoma could see Ice while South Oklahoma which include OKC Metro area could see Cold Rain.Temp is above Freezing for Saturday

00Z GFS keeping trend from the last 24 hours. Rain/Snow mix moves in Friday afternoon over W OK. Rain spreads east over the body of the state, still rain/snow mix over the west. Light to moderate rain continues overnight, with snow NW, and will last through the first half of Saturday. Rain starts to end from north to south through the day on Saturday and into the evening. GFS has backed off on extent of cold air over all...taking us below freezing on Saturday evening but back above on Sunday.

Things can only change, but precip amounts are still decent but not as great as they were before...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_prec_precacc_162.gif

This blizzard hitting the NE early this week should help the models figure out the cold air situation better, also the track of our (coming) storm. Once we get this out of the way, we should have a better idea of how much cold air is pulled down ahead of our storm. We will be in cold nights/mild days pattern all week.

Our storm also looks to turn into another blizzard for the NE heading into early next week, as well - GFS says some areas up there could have near 4 feet of snow over the next week and a half.

This morning's run for our storm looks like rain still for most of OK. Then cold air comes flying into the NW/W sides of OK and tries to change over to snow before the storm scoots off. The predicted speed of the storm has increased - thus less precip. and time for cold air to have an effect.

Our internal Euro trending colder and wetter:

http://crimson.blackops.wdtinc.com/images/ecmwf_hires/north_america/2015012600/total_precipitation/2015012600_f156_north_america_total_precipitation. gif

GEM trending higher for snowfall:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012600/gem_asnow_scus_25.png

GFS starting to trend wetter over the state.

All of these images are through 12AM Sunday Morning/Saturday Night. This is to show the trend of how GFS has been moving the heavier precip back north over the last several runs. Latest run is on the left and getting older as you go to the right.

Monday 12ZMonday 6ZMonday 0Z (Sunday Evening)Sunday 18ZSunday 12Zhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012612/gfs_apcpn_scus_23.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012606/gfs_apcpn_scus_24.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012600/gfs_apcpn_scus_25.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012518/gfs_apcpn_scus_26.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012512/gfs_apcpn_scus_27.png

If we get anywhere close to 1.5 or 2 inches of moisture that would be huge for winter in OK. Would really help the drought heading into late winter/early spring.

12Z GEM:

12pm Saturday:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012612/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_21.png

6pm Saturday:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012612/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_22.png

12am Sunday

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012612/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_23.png

those GEM Runs don't look too promising for heavy snow for us. do they?

*Question*
Being that we need the moisture badly what would me more beneficial to us the rain or snow? I am guessing the rain but am not sure.

*Question*
Being that we need the moisture badly what would me more beneficial to us the rain or snow? I am guessing the rain but am not sure.

Rain is better for filling lakes and rivers. Snow is better for ground water and crops.

those GEM Runs don't look too promising for heavy snow for us. do they?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015012612/gem_asnow_scus_27.png

So is this storm turning out to be a bust for us? I am not seeing the NWS or local weathermen saying much about snow or ice, they are mostly saying it will be just be a cold rain for us. This is confusing the models say snow but the NWS and locals are just saying rain.

GFS keeps giving us more and more precip each run. But it is all rain. Looks like close to 2 inches of rain across the SE 2/3 of the state.

Unless there is a pretty strong surge of cold air, it looks like it will likely be rain.

So is this storm turning out to be a bust for us? I am not seeing the NWS or local weathermen saying much about snow or ice, they are mostly saying it will be just be a cold rain for us. This is confusing the models say snow but the NWS and locals are just saying rain.

It's too early to put a finger on anything specific... looks like moisture will come, and temps will be cool; around freezing some of the time.

Can't really call a model a bust - models constantly change as their inputs change. A bust would be the forecast for 36" of snow in NYC and 8" actually falling...

So is this storm turning out to be a bust for us? I am not seeing the NWS or local weathermen saying much about snow or ice, they are mostly saying it will be just be a cold rain for us. This is confusing the models say snow but the NWS and locals are just saying rain.

If it ends up raining this weekend and the drought situation improves a bit, I wouldn't call the storm a bust.

12Z coming in for GFS is even warmer.

12Z coming in for GFS is even warmer.

But just as wet?

But just as wet?

No, about an inch less than last run. This run may be more of an anomoly than what actually happens, but it is worth noting that the trend for GFS is definitely away from snowstorm and more into cold rain.

We will be in NAM window soon, so we will have more data to go off of.

Euro is trending warmer as well but with healthy rainfall amounts. Kansas could see a significant snowfall however.

Precip type is always going to be one of the tough things for models to get right, but I'm glad they are at least staying consistent in bringing this storm system through. We need all the moisture we can get...in any form.

Random off topic question that I'm sure one of you will know.

Are the model computers self learning? Does it analyze it's past predictions with current outcomes? Does it learn from mistakes? Or is it static until someone comes in and upgrades some of the prediction software?

LOL

NYC Mayor: ?Reconcile Yourselves With Your God, For All Will Perish In The Tempest? | The Onion - America's Finest News Source (http://www.theonion.com/articles/nyc-mayor-reconcile-yourselves-with-your-god-for-a,37850/)

The mayor apparently liked it so much he did a reading of it- Listen to Bill de Blasio perform a dramatic reading of an Onion article about him - Vox (http://www.vox.com/2015/1/27/7925951/bill-de-blasio-onion)

Random off topic question that I'm sure one of you will know.

Are the model computers self learning? Does it analyze it's past predictions with current outcomes? Does it learn from mistakes? Or is it static until someone comes in and upgrades some of the prediction software?

No, not in the sense you're describing. Neural networks and the like are seeing some use in research applications, but the models are not self learning on their own and only change during upgrades. The only way past predictions are really incorporated is through the data assimilation scheme, where a short term forecast from the model is used as the "background" before new observations are included, so in that sense past forecasts (and their assimilated obs) are integrated forward in time and past data is preserved, but that's something different.

00Z GFS is going colder now by crashing the cold air in faster on Sunday morning. We'll see if this becomes a trend.

Well it's colder again this morning's run. Perhaps we will have a better read once this cold front comes through this evening.

Also looking down the pipe, we could have multiple storms lining up for our February. We need all the moisture we can get right now.

We need snow. We need cold. I for one hate these warm days in January. This is January for pete's sake. It's supposed to be cold. If I wanted 70s and 80s in January, I would move to Arizona, Florida, California or Hawaii. Come on major cold. Come on Major Snow.

We need snow. We need cold. I for one hate these warm days in January. This is January for pete's sake. It's supposed to be cold. If I wanted 70s and 80s in January, I would move to Arizona, Florida, California or Hawaii. Come on major cold. Come on Major Snow.

While I enjoy the warm temps for myself, I worry about most about trees, plants, etc. which are totally getting their seasonal clocks all messed up. I am sure everyone has seen how the bulbs are emerging from the ground already thinking it is late March/early April. I worry I will start to see blooms soon on my plants and trees! Then we will have no show in the spring to enjoy. Hopefully, for their sake, this is the last 70 degree plus day we see until the time is right.

Is there a big storm system headed for us here in Oklahoma February 8th?

Is there a big storm system headed for us here in Oklahoma February 8th?

Nothing on the 12Z GFS run. Dry as a bone. If there was any significant coming we would already be talking about it. :-P

Looks like NWS may be latching on to a more colder scenario for this weekend they have started adding the rain/snow mix into there wording so hopefully we get cold quickly and stay cold and it turns into all snow,

As much as I want moisture, this is the weekend I'm moving my household goods back to OKC. Hopefully any snow waits until Sunday.

Don't ruin it for Bobby. He wants to play in the snow...skate on the ice.