Operational GFS has a pretty quick moving system on Tuesday into early Wednesday next week. Precip mostly snow, maybe mixing on Wednesday. Parallel GFS has it a little slower - more so Wednesday - and nearly all rain.

Barometric pressure got remarkably high on Wednesday. It peaked out at 31.03 at my place.

Still an outside hope for some snow on Tuesday. This is on the Parallel GFS run, which FYI - will become the operational run on Jan 14th.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010812/gfsp_asnow_us_41.png

MM previewed 3" for OKC, Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Tonight's GFS runs keep snow totals well under an inch.

GFS starting to show some more bite to Tuesday/Wednesday system. Also GEM showing up the party.

The locals are also hinting about highs in the 50's on the horizon. Need them so I can take my Christmas lights down lol

Just read from a weather page on FB I also follow saying each model keeps dialing down the moisture for Tue/Wed and the second half of Jan will be much warmer than the first. Said we might have to wait until Feb for any more winter precip chances

Just read from a weather page on FB I also follow saying each model keeps dialing down the moisture for Tue/Wed and the second half of Jan will be much warmer than the first. Said we might have to wait until Feb for any more winter precip chances

Midweek storm this week seems to be just about nothing at all at this point. Next moisture shot is around the 19th.

Bring on warmer temps. I, for one, never saw the hype for the Tues/Wed snow as moisture was always a concern once the low ejected out of the rockies.

Yea looks like flurries at best at this point.

On to the next... Jan 20 time frame.

Bring on warmer temps. I, for one, never saw the hype for the Tues/Wed snow as moisture was always a concern once the low ejected out of the rockies.

Warmer is better!

Doesn't mean much...but for those of us still waiting for winter...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015011218/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

GFS keeping with an interesting storm around the 21st. Which means we'll get a few sprinkles or a dust storm.

Haha, pretty much. Long-range always looks so fun, then it comes and we have some mist at 34F. Where are the days of potent closed-lows coming out of NM and giving us an actual punch?!

Haha, pretty much. Long-range always looks so fun, then it comes and we have some mist at 34F. Where are the days of potent closed-lows coming out of NM and giving us an actual punch?!

12Z run doesn't even give us mist anymore. LOL

Oh this weather...or lack thereof...is depressing.

it may be chilly, but at least there's sunshine and no wind today!

Warmer is better!

Finally the 50s will return on Thursday. It hasn't been that warm, since the day after Christmas.

Early evening GFS run is a whopper of a storm around Jan 20-22.

Early evening GFS run is a whopper of a storm around Jan 20-22.

That's almost a classic path for a snow storm from the Plains to the Lower Lakes. It vanished on the 12Z run but interesting to see it back on the 18Z...and on the operational one to boot.

The two we might get to play with later this month...

First on the 21st/22nd...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_33.png

Then on the 28th/29th...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_47.png

GFS keeping powerful winter storm in play for early next week. Consistency is key, but we have seen the last few winters how easily these can "dry up".

Right now it is looking significant. As it stands, we are talking snow - and a lot of it.

FYI - GFS upgrade when in this morning. So all GFS forecasts you see now are from what was the Parallel GFS. The old operational one is gone.

This morning's GFS takes storm on a more southerly track, dumping the heavy snow in NW TX.

With the way this winter has gone so far id say its pretty good odds this misses the metro area completely.

Ole Damon Lane is going with 20% chance of rain/snow mix next week with low impacts on travel. We will see....

Ground temps will probably soar with 5 days of sun and fun before it makes Oklahoma

GFS keeping trend of sinking the storm track south as it exits Rockies. Giving the snowstorm to NW TX. Will keep monitoring trends obviously.

Not much in the way of precip coming according to the 12Z GFS. Next chance isn't until the 28th according to it. So it would appear we are going into fire season early...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image8.jpg http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image5.jpg

00Z Update of GFS has us dry now until the 1st of February.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015011700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_51.png

After a few consistent runs, the 12Z GFS is starting to tear about the storm for Feb 1st now for us. This is just a bad trend with the drought and fire season kicking in early.

Latest GFS trending the storm back to the north. Will have to watch the next few runs to see if it is anomaly or not.

Red Flag Warning today for much of the state, including all of the metro. Extreme Fire Danger today.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
fire warning
agency name city state
relayed by national weather service norman ok
254 pm cst sun jan 18 2015

the following message is transmitted at the request of the
guthrie fire chief.

People between prairie grove to highway 105 and choctaw rd and
triple xxx have been requested to evacuate due to an approaching
wildfire. Please proceed to highway 105 and drive west or east to
evacuate.

Don't sleep on this storm Wednesday/Thursday. Track is still very crucial.

NAM is saying a more easterly ejection of the low (greater chance for OK impact)
GFS is still keeping with the southern track, but has been bringing it back north for the last coouple days.

Guessing rain event if it happens since the highs are upper 40's?

00Z GFS has a mix of sorts for the Metro. A lot is just going to depend on where temps end up.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012000/gfs_asnow_scus_13.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_10.png

12Z GFS pretty much the same as last night's run. Looks like maybe a tenth to a quarter inch of rain for the area and possibly a dusting of snow as well (depends on how wet things are).

The next system is shaping up for around the 1st of Feb. That one could bring a better shot at accumulating snow. How much for the metro area will depend on how fast the cold air gets in place.

Per usual, C OK right on cusp of snow/rain.

Precip and snow gradient will be very extreme with this system. Can go from a handful of inches to basically nothing in just a couple miles.

Models are keeping things interesting, the manner in which the low ejects out of the Rockies and into NW TX is going to determine everything. If the low tracks further E/NE or turns east more quickly, the snow shield will be pulled over the main body of OK. (this is what happened on Christmas Eve in 2009)

Right now the money zone looks like TX PH sliding down into NW TX.

Just took a peek at the SREF plumes. Needless to say they definitely caught my attention... surface temperatures may be quite warm, though, so I'd have a hard time imagining much would stick in any case. The ARW members have a mean of nearly a foot of snow for Norman, while NMM has under an inch and NMB has nearly 4".

10020

New NAM tonight, doing exactly what I have been posting the last couple days. Ejecting the low more E/NE, dragging heavy snow banding directly over OK. A few areas in the southern half of OK near a foot of snow.

New GFS keeps the storm sagging south once it comes out of Rockies.


Now keep in mind, GFS has been EXTREMELY consistent on insisting that the low will drop through the TX PH and fizzle out in NW TX. NAM is just now latching onto the OK solution. However, both NAM and GFS have trended overall to bring the storm further north over the last 3-4 days. NAM being more extreme.



Cannot sleep on this storm, it may all be rain, it may be nothing, it may be a foot of snow.

Oh this storm is going to be fun. Tagging on to what Anon said, the GFS (formerly the Parallel Version or new/updated version) has been pretty consistent with this thing. However, we always can see last minute jumps to another solution. So we just have to see if NAM is on to something or if it is out to lunch. About the only thing locked in is that Western OK will get some accumulating snow tonight/Thursday. I wanted to share a bit more of the upper air setup and why NAM is doing what it is. Well first off it is swinging a lot of precip up over us and really gets it cranking around 3AM Thursday here in Central OK. The upper air profile?

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_NAM_033_35.29,-97.43_skewt_ML.gif

The lower couple thousand feet is pretty close to the freezing point, but it is favoring on the snow crystals not melting before getting to the surface. This does scream heavy/wet snow.

The GFS for the same location/time is substantially warmer, but also take note it isn't saturated with a dewpoint at or just below freezing...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_GFS_033_35.29,-97.43_skewt_ML.gif

Here is how the NAM spits out the precip...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_prec_prec_033.gif

The GFS really isn't that far off though in the higher precip amounts around this time frame...
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_prec_prec_033.gif

So at the point we need to see how the next couple of models act in terms of handling precip types and amounts. If NAM stays consistent and the GFS moves anywhere near the same solution...the Norman WFO is almost going to be forced to put out some Winter Storm Watches for someone to cover their bases with this.

With that said, I've mentioned Feb 1st a few times already.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_43.png

Winter Storm Watches are out for portions of Western Oklahoma now. Morning model runs are much different. GFS going more liquid...NAM saying more snow. Snow totals are down a bit on NAM...roughly 2-5" over the Metro, which seems more reasonable if we do get into a wet snow situation.

The consistency of GFS has been amazing. I can see why forecasters are siding with it.

3-5 inches on grass and elevated surfaces seems reasonable for the C and S parts of OK. Extreme S/SE OK could see a shot at heavy banding on wrap-around, but exact track is up in the air.

Definitely a messy storm. Any slight variations in track and/or temperatures will have major changes to forecast tonight into early tomorrow.

The consistency of GFS has been amazing. I can see why forecasters are siding with it.

3-5 inches on grass and elevated surfaces seems reasonable for the C and S parts of OK. Extreme S/SE OK could see a shot at heavy banding on wrap-around, but exact track is up in the air.

Definitely a messy storm. Any slight variations in track and/or temperatures will have major changes to forecast tonight into early tomorrow.

Hopefully this is a sign that the new GFS is going to be better than the old.

16Z HRRR showing snow totals through 1AM over W OK may exceed 6 inches by that time. Expect a few of the counties to get upgraded to warnings this afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisory for western half of OK (Winter Storm Warnings far west).

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/wwa/maps/realtime/latest.oklahoma.winter.gif


Bulletin states up to 4 inches possible in the area.

Will this eventually move eastward thru the evening/night?

Will this eventually move eastward thru the evening/night?

If you question is whether eastern OK will see this eventually, not to the same level. Best chance for accumulating snow is Central and West - especially west These advisories are for late tonight and early tomorrow.

So the good news is, it's gonna come down fast and heavy but the streets have been warm enough, long enough, that it won't be able to make the roads bad. I'm cool with that.

RAP and NAM hinting at a heavier band setting up late tonight along I-40, which is where most of the snow for OKC would come from (if it comes). Depending on how quickly temps get down and the timing of the band, it could be mostly rain.

GFS refuses to believe it will snow anywhere in OK except for maybe extreme WC OK, (think Elk City and west).

HRRR Snow forecast through 5AM...

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015012120/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

I'll take KOCO's 1/2" of snow around OKC and done by 8am.

Updated HRRR through 10AM. Generally 2 inches or less for the metro area.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015012201/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

This storm is so weird. It is almost like it is aware where I-40 lies. A heavy band of snow from TX into W OK, and then rain into OKC and points east.

Storm is stationary right now.

New NAM turns the band into snow through early morning and indicates up to 8 inches along areas south of OKC and back west.


Watching the low spin out in NM, maybe I am seeing with my snow-goggles on, but the low is moving more ENE than SE like it is supposed to be doing.


GFS has been spot on with this storm so far, (except maybe some of the amount in the far N/NW parts of TX PH.

It's snowing along this band now, but melting back to rain as it enters lower levels of atmosphere, classic snow bright-banding on radar.

Reports of 3 inch+ per hour rates coming out of this band in the TX PH. That is an insane amount of snow.

Watching radar it does appear the melting layer is starting to come down a decent amount now. Earlier model runs had change over around 3AM-ish. Looking at the HCA image for radar...definitely getting close to a change over if we can get some cooling in the lower 1000 or so feet.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2015-01/21-1.png

Looking at trends with temps / wet bulb / dewpoints...it looks like greatest chance for change over to snow is going to run just south of I-40 from Minco over to Norman. Right now mPING reports have snow in Weatherford already. Right now they are running about 4 degrees cooler on Temp/DP/Wet Bulb than Norman for example.

This band just isn't moving. Amarillo is going to need snow blowers to get out of this one if this keeps up.

The system should have been diving south by now, but it keeps barely sliding E/NE - keeping this band directly over I40.


Hinton to El Reno should see change over to snow very soon, then OKC. Grassy surface accumulations likely if the band stays.

Agreed, venture. Just south of OKC and west still looks like a good spot for snow accumulations, if the band sags south before dying out - lower atmosphere temp profile should be just about right.

Snow change over approaching El Reno to Mustang in the next hour. OKC by 2:30am will likely be snow.