Have co workers that will be out in this mess tomorrow. If that forecast holds true would the icing be mostly bridges etc since it is slightly above freezing?

With us being below freezing for an extended period of time, it'll take a bit for the pavement to warm up.

New Advisory for the SW 1/4 of OK to cover the next system....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 PM CST THU JAN 1 2015


OKZ023-027-038-039-044-045-TXZ086-089-090-021200-
/O.CAN.KOUN.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-150102T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WW.Y.0017.150102T0800Z-150103T0600Z/
CADDO-GRADY-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-COTTON-JEFFERSON-WICHITA-ARCHER-
CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANADARKO...CHICKASHA...LAWTON...
DUNCAN...WALTERS...WAURIKA...WICHITA FALLS...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
342 PM CST THU JAN 1 2015


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST FRIDAY NIGHT...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT.


* TIMING: FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN MAY RESULT IN ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH ON TREES...POWER
LINES...AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES.


* OTHER IMPACTS: LIGHT ICING MAY OCCUR ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND
OTHER EXPOSED ROADWAYS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Glanced at the 15Z SREF plumes for Norman and OKC and almost all runs seem clear on turning both over to rain.. Which is lucky for us, since the total rainfall for tomorrow's system comes out to around 0.65". (Mean) temperatures rise above the freezing level around 15Z tomorrow morning and stay there, though there are some warm outliers and a few runs would definitely still create icing problems on bridges, etc. Just FWIW.

Yea it's looking like cold rain event. Warmer air is mixing into the surface ahead of the storm much too quickly.

That in combination with the main precip. shield hitting us at daytime peak-heating is recipe for rain. NW TX looks like they could get a decent ice storm.

Yeah ideally we start a bit warmer here and remain above freezing. That's my expectation, but I also remember how many of these setups where it has been a degree or two difference and we just need to keep open to the possibility. Today getting into the low 30s around here should help. We'll see what temps do tonight.

Going to be very close. Drizzle starting right now here in the metro should help keep temps up a bit overnight.

Going to be very close. Drizzle starting right now here in the metro should help keep temps up a bit overnight.

I would not be shocked if the western Metro (Yukon, El Reno, etc) get a pretty decent icing event and the eastern Metro (Shawnee, Norman, etc) get nothing but a cold rain.

http://www.mesonet.org/images/global/pixel.gifhttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TAIR.grad.png

I would not be shocked if the western Metro (Yukon, El Reno, etc) get a pretty decent icing event and the eastern Metro (Shawnee, Norman, etc) get nothing but a cold rain.

http://www.mesonet.org/images/global/pixel.gifhttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TAIR.grad.png

Heavy drizzle right now on the east side of Moore but at this point is not icing on concrete surfaces....only wet.

Heavy drizzle right now on the east side of Moore but at this point is not icing on concrete surfaces....only wet.

Same in central Norman. Certainly makes me cautious though since we are hovering right at 32F.

DPS is suspending all non essential services in Comanche, Cotton, Jefferson, Stephens, Caddo and Grady Counties tomorrow.

Winter Wx Adv now up for the rest of the Metro for freezing drizzle/freezing fog overnight. Temps have dropped a degree or two more below freezing.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1215 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2015

OKZ008-013-018>020-024>026-028>030-021300-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WW.Y.0017.150102T0615Z-150102T1300Z/
KAY-NOBLE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-
MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PONCA CITY...PERRY...KINGFISHER...
GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...
OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWN EE
1215 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING.

* TIMING: THROUGH AT LEAST 7 AM FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES PAST 7 AM
FRIDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
RESULT IN ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY ON TREES...POWER LINES...AND OTHER ELEVATED
SURFACES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: LIGHT ICING MAY OCCUR ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...
AND OTHER EXPOSED ROADWAYS...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS.

Ice Storm Warning now in effect for metro area until 6:00 AM Saturday

It is now starting to get Icy where I live in Moore, here is the latest weather briefing from NWS in Norman. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LvLI5zNHRE

The freezing line is approaching the I-35 corridor. We could see the NWS trim some of the eastern counties off the Ice Storm warning area later in this morning/ early afternoon.

The freezing line is approaching the I-35 corridor. We could see the NWS trim some of the eastern counties off the Ice Storm warning area later in this morning/ early afternoon.

I doubt they will do that

The story has always been this was going to be a degree or two off from rain or a decent icing event. Wet bulb temp in Norman is at 32 now, so Norman could escape with just a cold rain. Below freezing for the rest of the Metro to the west of I-44.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TWET.grad.png

Rain has started in central OKC with a temperature of 32F and a wet bulb temperature of 31F. Lovely.

Norman is up above freezing, this should hold and prevent any major icing here.

Looks like we dodged a bullet which is great since we typically only need to dodge 3 or 4 each winter

Norman is up above freezing, this should hold and prevent any major icing here.

Really most of the metro except maybe the far western sides should easily reach above freezing this afternoon.

NWS could dropped the Ice Storm Warning for the OKC Metro area.OKC is above Freezing

Fine by me.

More accurately, the entire metro area except for the eastern sections, are under a Winter Wx Adv through 6AM tomorrow.

Wonder why they would wait so late to post advisories ahead of storm. Then when it is obvious it will be too warm, they go and put out IceStormWarning.

Head scratcher...

Okay, help me here a bit. This morning's wave is liquid, not frozen....but I thought a second wave comes thru tonight. Frozen or solid? Already cancelled (well, postponed) a small bday event today due to ice potential...but if tonight is just liquid, could still go out this evening......all in OKC metro area.

Okay, help me here a bit. This morning's wave is liquid, not frozen....but I thought a second wave comes thru tonight. Frozen or solid? Already cancelled (well, postponed) a small bday event today due to ice potential...but if tonight is just liquid, could still go out this evening......all in OKC metro area.

Today through tomorrow morning is the main storm system coming through. Some reports of sleet mixing in with heavier cells, but overall we should be a cold rain here unless temps drop a few degrees.

Well this winter storm was a real bust. So when can we expect the next winter weather event??

Well this winter storm was a real bust. So when can we expect the next winter weather event??

Maybe for your specific location, but areas just west of us are in line for some pretty intense icing if you notice the stream of moisture coming up from TX.

Maybe for your specific location, but areas just west of us are in line for some pretty intense icing if you notice the stream of moisture coming up from TX.

Yeah, we missed out so I am looking forward to the next winter weather event. hopefully we get some good snow or freezing rain here in the metro before winter is over. Just bummed got all excited about it and turns out to be just rain showers.

January 10ish is next storm system.

So, if I were to contemplate going from Norman into south OKC this afternoon (59th/Penn(ish), and back to Norman before 6, not a bad travel idea or a dude, what were you thinking sort of idea? Sounds like the former but if not, someone speak up.

Look ahead...

January 9th earliest wave via GFS, P-GFS holds it off until the 10th. Transition to rain/mix before storm moves out by the 11th. GEM holds it off until the 11th and all rain.

Operational GFSParallel GFSGEMhttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010212/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015010200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

Doesn't sound like a promising storm system for anything but mostly rain. not that rain is not a good thing, but why does it have to be so hard to get snow and winter precip in Oklahoma these days. When I was growing up in the 70's and early 80's it seems like we used to have more snowy winters.

kevinpate, essentially all of OK is fine for traveling today. Even SW OK is now getting above freezing. I bet ice storm warnings will be dropped for all of OK soon.

Luck of the draw, Bobby. Some systems come out at the perfect time, some come too early or late. Just imagine if this storm system came through on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Yeah, the areas below freezing are shrinking rather quickly.

All right, I am done crying around about it. Just like all weather geeks we get excited for weather events then when they don't turn out as expected or are duds it is a little bit of a letdown process.

Ice Storm Warnings dropped...Winter Wx Adv remains west of US 81.

Thanks, though a bit of a rats I suppose about missing out on a long winter's nap. :)

Even the Winter WX ADV west of US 81 will probably be dropped at the rate temps are going up.

Bummer was holding out for some snow..

Bummer was holding out for some snow..

As of right now, no snow showing up for a couple weeks.

Operational GFS snow totals...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010218/gfs_asnow_us_33.png

Parallel GFS Snowfall totals...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010218/gfsp_asnow_us_33.png

Dam, if the atmosphere was 5 degrees colder all the way up, we would be in for one hell of a snow storm. Precip shield is taking perfect track over OK. At least we will be getting some moisture.

00Z Updates...

P-GFS has next system moving in afternoon of January 9th. Snow/Sleet mix main precip type. Transition to all snow overnight and remain all snow through 12AM early Jan 11th.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010400/gfsp_asnow_us_30.png

Operational GFS...
Winter Mix moves in by 6AM January 9th. Transitions to snow and ends by late Friday.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010400/gfs_asnow_us_26.png

Apparently I'm hearing from security around work that the roads are getting icy right now?! Luckily its Sunday...

Most of exciting thing to happen in 2014 was a couple of snowstorms earlier in the year.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full1.jpg

Wow the 12z run has really kicked out the winter weather for the latter part of this week for pretty much the entire state.

Wow the 12z run has really kicked out the winter weather for the latter part of this week for pretty much the entire state.

By kicked out do you mean it has intensified the winter weather for later this week or made it non existant?

By kicked out do you mean it has intensified the winter weather for later this week or made it non existant?

I think he means you're still gonna have to go to 7 Eleven to get your ice.

00Z GFS runs are a not really on the same page right now...

Snowfall through Sunday evening.

Operational GFSParallel GFShttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010600/gfs_asnow_us_25.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010600/gfsp_asnow_us_25.png

Bobby821.. By kicked out I mean it has gone bye bye for the most part.

Bobby... Here's what the forecast models are saying as of 06Z Today. Snow tries to build in in South/Southeast OK by around 18z Friday. Snow/Mix tries forming in western TX and could move in to Western OK. Snow could then stick around all the way through 18Z Sunday. This will change 1,000,000,000,000 times by then though.

Bobby... Here's what the forecast models are saying as of 06Z Today. Snow tries to build in in South/Southeast OK by around 18z Friday. Snow/Mix tries forming in western TX and could move in to Western OK. Snow could then stick around all the way through 18Z Sunday. This will change 1,000,000,000,000 times by then though.

What does the times 18Z refer to in real time? I am not a weather illiterate person by any means but still trying to learn how to read the models and the times are confusing to me.

Bobby... Here you go hope this helps. Sorry, I've been a huge weather enthusiast for a long time I sometimes forget not everyone knows everything about the weather. Ever since I was young I have stormed chased and have watched the weather models.


Per Meteorologist Jeff Haby,

Z time is used in order for all meteorological measurements to be made at the same time. This is the basis for synoptic meteorology, to take all measurements at the same time to produce a snapshot of the state of the atmosphere. Z time is in reference to 0 degrees longitude at Greenwich, England. The 12Z time will be in the early morning hours in the United States. Relative to Central Time, 12Z is at 6 a.m. in January (Central Standard Time) and 7 a.m. in July (Central Daylight Time). The way to remember the difference between CST and CDT is to remember that there is more Daylight in the summer and therefore the warm half of the year is Daylight time and the cool half of the year standard time. When it is noon in Europe, it is the early morning hours in the United States. 0Z occurs in the late afternoon hours in the United States. Relative to Central Time, 0Z is at 6 p.m. (Central Standard Time) and 7 p.m. (Central Daylight Time).

Many beginning analysts are tricked into thinking 0Z Tuesday is on Tuesday local time. This is not the case in the United States. When it turns to Tuesday in Greenwich, England, it is still Monday afternoon in the United States. Remember that Europe will always have their New Year's celebrations before the United States. 0Z TUE on the chart occurs at 6 p.m. Monday (Central Standard Time). The most common Z times you will come across are 0Z (late afternoon in U.S.), 18Z (near noon in U.S.), 12Z (morning in U.S.) and 6Z (near midnight in U.S.). It is a wise habit to look at the time stamp first on an image before interpretation. This prevents the unwanted task of interpreting old data. Most of the major synoptic scale models will have time stamps of 12Z or 0Z since most synoptic models are run twice per day. Surface analysis charts are updated hourly or every 3 hours. It is wise to be able to convert your local time into Z-time and vice versa for your time zone.

Bobby... Here you go hope this helps. Sorry, I've been a huge weather enthusiast for a long time I sometimes forget not everyone knows everything about the weather. Ever since I was young I have stormed chased and have watched the weather mod

Per Meteorologist Jeff Haby,

Z time is used in order for all meteorological measurements to be made at the same time. This is the basis for synoptic meteorology, to take all measurements at the same time to produce a snapshot of the state of the atmosphere. Z time is in reference to 0 degrees longitude at Greenwich, England. The 12Z time will be in the early morning hours in the United States. Relative to Central Time, 12Z is at 6 a.m. in January (Central Standard Time) and 7 a.m. in July (Central Daylight Time). The way to remember the difference between CST and CDT is to remember that there is more Daylight in the summer and therefore the warm half of the year is Daylight time and the cool half of the year standard time. When it is noon in Europe, it is the early morning hours in the United States. 0Z occurs in the late afternoon hours in the United States. Relative to Central Time, 0Z is at 6 p.m. (Central Standard Time) and 7 p.m. (Central Daylight Time).

Many beginning analysts are tricked into thinking 0Z Tuesday is on Tuesday local time. This is not the case in the United States. When it turns to Tuesday in Greenwich, England, it is still Monday afternoon in the United States. Remember that Europe will always have their New Year's celebrations before the United States. 0Z TUE on the chart occurs at 6 p.m. Monday (Central Standard Time). The most common Z times you will come across are 0Z (late afternoon in U.S.), 18Z (near noon in U.S.), 12Z (morning in U.S.) and 6Z (near midnight in U.S.). It is a wise habit to look at the time stamp first on an image before interpretation. This prevents the unwanted task of interpreting old data. Most of the major synoptic scale models will have time stamps of 12Z or 0Z since most synoptic models are run twice per day. Surface analysis charts are updated hourly or every 3 hours. It is wise to be able to convert your local time into Z-time and vice versa for your time zone.

Thanks for the info

So it's looking like any winter weather this weekend has pretty much gone away for most of the state. (Maybe a little in my side of the state (Tulsa)). David/Anon, what are you guys thinking?

Models generally suck with storms that come out of the southerly flow and get pulled up into the main jetstream. As of right now, the one later this week looks to be a rain event for E TX and maybe extreme E/SE OK.

Next larger storm for main body of OK looks to be in the Jan 19-22 timeframe.

Models generally suck with storms that come out of the southerly flow and get pulled up into the meain jetstream. As of right now, the one later this week looks to be a rain event for E TX and maybe extreme E/SE OK.

Next larger storm for main body of OK looks to be in the Jan 19-22 timeframe.

My toddler REALLY wants to build a snow man... so do I.

My toddler REALLY wants to build a snow man... so do I.

9941

Newest GFS hinting at a follow-up storm to the one mentioned above that will mainly impact TX. So watch for maybe somesthing wintry trying to get organized Jan 12-14ish.

Newest GFS hinting at a follow-up storm to the one mentioned above that will mainly impact TX. So watch for maybe somesthing wintry trying to get organized Jan 12-14ish.

That's what Mike Morgan was hinting at during yesterday's 6pm newscast with his 40% chance of snow next Monday.