9 million by 2020? That’s more than 10% of the market. That’s huge. Transportation makes up 40% of the demand for oil globally, if you lower the amount of oil used by transportation by 10% that’s a 4% fall in global demand for oil. That’s a big drop in just four years. Combine that with the growing trend of cities in Europe banning cars in city centers and cities in India and China only allowing cars on every other day to lower pollution you will see an even further drop in demand.

A green advocacy group's electrical car production projection is likely inflated as shawnw mentioned. Also increased production doesn't always translate to increased sales. I didn't see when those projections were made, but they likely made them without taking into account the massive decrease in the price of gasoline if made before midway through 2015. In order for there to be an incentive for consumers to purchase electric cars, which are generally much more expensive, less convenient (more refuels that take much longer than gasoline or other alternatives like CNG) , and smaller for the same price as a gasoline powered vehicle, there has to be a cost incentive. There are people buying them to "save the environment" but I would guess those buyers are few and far between. Right now and for the next few years if oil prices stay low and vehicle fuel efficiency continues to increase, there will be almost zero incentive to crank out the extra money for a less convenient, smaller, and more expensive vehicle.

Albeit on a small scale, you can see this trend happening with CNG vehicles in Oklahoma right now which are an easier, cheaper, and more convenient conversion or a cheaper new car purchase than electric. The price of CNG is still cheaper than gasoline and conversions/new car purchases are still subsidized by the state and federal governments but conversions and new car purchases have tanked because they can't economically justify the premium for those vehicles when gasoline prices are so low.

As Pete mentioned, natural gas accounts for 27% of electrical production and that number is increasing faster than renewable sources as coal fired power plants are replaced. Any move to electric from gasoline vehicles will be at least partially offset by the increase in use of electricity generated by natural gas.

Bottom line, I don't think the move to electric cars will be as rapid as predicted, especially now that gasoline prices have dropped so much over the last two years. I certainly don't think electric car usage will have a major effect on oil demand over the next 5-10 years. Fuel efficiency and alternatives are increasing, but so are total gasoline powered vehicles purchased and that is projected to continue rising through 2020.

An green advocacy group's electrical car production projection is likely inflated as shawnw mentioned. Also increased production doesn't always translate to increased sales. I didn't see when those projections were made, but they likely made them without taking into account the massive decrease in the price of gasoline if made before midway through 2015. In order for there to be an incentive for consumers to purchase electric cars, which are generally much more expensive, less convenient (more refuels that take much longer than gasoline or other alternatives like CNG) , and smaller for the same price as a gasoline powered vehicle, there has to be a cost incentive. There are people buying them to "save the environment" but I would guess those buyers are few and far between. Right now and for the next few years if oil prices stay low and vehicle fuel efficiency continues to increase, there will be almost zero incentive to crank out the extra money for a less convenient, smaller, and more expensive vehicle.

Albeit on a small scale, you can see this trend happening with CNG vehicles in Oklahoma right now which are an easier, cheaper, and more convenient conversion or a cheaper new car purchase than electric. The price of CNG is still cheaper than gasoline and conversions/new car purchases are still subsidized by the state and federal governments but conversions and new car purchases have tanked because they can't economically justify the premium for those vehicles when gasoline prices are so low.

As Pete mentioned, natural gas accounts for 27% of electrical production and that number is increasing faster than renewable sources as coal fired power plants are replaced. Any move to electric from gasoline vehicles will be at least partially offset by the increase in use of electricity generated by natural gas.

Bottom line, I don't think the move to electric cars will be as rapid as predicted, especially now that gasoline prices have dropped so much over the last two years. I certainly don't think electric car usage will have a major effect on oil demand over the next 5-10 years. Fuel efficiency and alternatives are increasing, but so are total gasoline powered vehicles purchased and that is projected to continue rising through 2020.

I agree the market for Natural Gas is going to grow a lot. The long term safe haven for Oklahoma’s energy industry will be natural gas. It’s oil that I see as in deep trouble. I think we will see the reverse of what happened five or so years ago when Oklahoma energy companies worked so hard to move to oil from NG.

You are correct to an extent about electric cars in this country being hurt by low gas prices, but electric cars will still be cheaper to run than gas, will be better for the environment and should be more reliable as well with many fewer systems and moving parts. Prices are already dropping for electric cars as economies of scale start to play into their production. Once prices are equal between a gas powered car and an electric one with decent range a lot of people are going to choose electric no matter what the price of gas is. That price point very close to being here.

That all aside, it’s in Europe, China and India where electric is really will take off. Europe takes global warming much more seriously than we do and diesel has now turned out to not be the answer there. China and India have no choice or their residents are going to start dropping dead in the streets from pollution. I would not be shocked to see new gas cars banned in those countries before long.

I would not be shocked to see new gas cars banned in those countries before long.

I'm not sure "before long" is going to be practical... eventually sure....


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I agree the market for Natural Gas is going to grow a lot. The long term safe haven for Oklahoma’s energy industry will be natural gas. It’s oil that I see as in deep trouble. I think we will see the reverse of what happened five or so years ago when Oklahoma energy companies worked so hard to move to oil from NG.

You are correct to an extent about electric cars in this country being hurt by low gas prices, but electric cars will still be cheaper to run than gas, will be better for the environment and should be more reliable as well with many fewer systems and moving parts. Prices are already dropping for electric cars as economies of scale start to play into their production. Once prices are equal between a gas powered car and an electric one with decent range a lot of people are going to choose electric no matter what the price of gas is. That price point very close to being here.

That all aside, it’s in Europe, China and India where electric is really will take off. Europe takes global warming much more seriously than we do and diesel has now turned out to not be the answer there. China and India have no choice or their residents are going to start dropping dead in the streets from pollution. I would not be shocked to see new gas cars banned in those countries before long.

On the first bolded point, i think it will largely depend on how much charging time drops and how much car you can get relative to price. Many people with families aren't going to want a tiny electric car for the same prices as a larger gasoline powered SUV, crossover or Minivan. New electric cars will also be competing with much cheaper used vehicles for a while which will again make it difficult to justify the cost of buying a new electric car.

On the second, Europe does take global warming more seriously, but their interest in electric cars has much more to do with them paying $6-$10 a gallon on gas for the last decade and above 4 prior to that. If their gasoline prices drop like ours have, it will hurt their electric car demand as well.

Electric cars will get the market share eventually, I just don't think it will happen anywhere that quickly.

On the first bolded point, i think it will largely depend on how much charging time drops and how much car you can get relative to price. Many people with families aren't going to want a tiny electric car for the same prices as a larger gasoline powered SUV, crossover or Minivan. New electric cars will also be competing with much cheaper used vehicles for a while which will again make it difficult to justify the cost of buying a new electric car.

On the second, Europe does take global warming more seriously, but their interest in electric cars has much more to do with them paying $6-$10 a gallon on gas for the last decade and above 4 prior to that. If their gasoline prices drop like ours have, it will hurt their electric car demand as well.

Electric cars will get the market share eventually, I just don't think it will happen anywhere that quickly.

High fuel prices in Europe and much of the world are much more due to taxes than the price of oil, and that's not changing.

Since were talking about oil and not BOK Park Plaza, did anyone notice the price surge ? All because of a cold front on the East coast that put heating oil in demand. Oil at $32.00, was floating around $26 a couple days ago.

Since were talking about oil and not BOK Park Plaza, did anyone notice the price surge ? All because of a cold front on the East coast that put heating oil in demand. Oil at $32.00, was floating around $26 a couple days ago.

That's good news. Maybe we'll get lucky and $26 will be the bottom.

Since were talking about oil and not BOK Park Plaza, did anyone notice the price surge ? All because of a cold front on the East coast that put heating oil in demand. Oil at $32.00, was floating around $26 a couple days ago.

Ehhh kinda.

The cold front helps but the bigger reason was the February contract expiry on the 20th. People still holding positions at the settlement time would have to take delivery of the oil. That lead to heavy selling. The next day is the March contract which was already trading at a premium, and since everyone in the market was selling the downward rally exhausted itself.

The oil panic that wasn't? (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/22/the-oil-panic-that-wasnt.html)

Ground level shot:

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok012316.jpg

Garage going up fast; columns for tower starting to go in:

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok012816.jpg

Another angle:

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok012916.jpg

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok020416a.jpg


http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok020416b.jpg


http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok020416c.jpg

Now that is a pleasure to see.

It certainly is nice when someone actually builds new buildings after they knock other buildings down for it.

^
I see what you did there.

It certainly is nice when someone actually builds new buildings after they knock other buildings down for it.

Agree. While I hated losing the buildings that were there and would rather them still be standing than this tower/parking complex, at least financing was in place and they were ready to start construction at the time of demolition.

At 433 ft. this tower will be as tall as some 30 story towers.

In that first picture, those are some tall support columns they are setting up to pour. If you look at the top of the page you can see there are several of them that will span 2 floors on the east side of the tower.

At 433 ft. this tower will be as tall as some 30 story towers.

Will be one foot shorter than the Oklahoma Tower. Should make an impact on the skyline.

Will be one foot shorter than the Oklahoma Tower. Should make an impact on the skyline.

Especially from North and South views.

Ground level shot:

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok012316.jpg

That's a good view of the "Parking District"...

Especially from North and South views.
I think it will stand out when looking at it from the West.

It is going to stand out from every angle, mostly because it is out of scale compared to adjacent buildings. We will have the Chase Tower gap on the westside now.

It is not going to stand out from every angle, because from some perspectives you will have several towers blocking the view to this one. I think it will bookend the skyline well because of the similar gap between Chase and the other towers. JMO.

I think it will stand out when looking at it from the West.

You will see it from the West, especially at night, but with the North and South view, it will 'widen' the skyline.

Best views will be from the WSW, WNW, S, and SSE - all of which will lengthen the skyline while it also having some decent height.

Next best views will be from the due W but it will blend with Devon/Chase a bit from this angle. I suspect lighting may come into play from this angle.

Next best views will be from the SE and ESE but it will have the Chase effect (when dt is viewed from the SW or NE) where it looks alone but significant height

Next best view (really final) will be from the due N but it will appear even smaller than OK tower from that angle, widening the skyline - YES, but too short to give a balance and too further 'back' to really impact from this angle.

Worse views will be from the NE, NNE, ENE, and E - it will be lost. This is what 'was' nice about the Clayco proposals, it would have added to this prospective - albeit would have been better if one or more of those were taller. But crying over spilled milk there - BOK will look good enough from every angle except the NE and E.

That's a nice footprint
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http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok021016.jpg

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok021216.jpg

Damn that last one is a cool shot, wish there was another round of cranes in the far background, building on EKG/4th.

Someone told me the other day that Devon was scrapping plans for this tower and would instead build a park.

Someone told me the other day that Devon was scrapping plans for this tower and would instead build a park.
That is OG&E across the street.

That is OG&E across the street.

That is what I was trying to tell them but they insisted it was the one next to the big Devon building. So I was thinking maybe I missed something and this one was scrapped also.

The people telling that story might want to tell the construction workers who are working like mad on that location. Might be hard to build a park with all of the pillars and concrete coming out of the ground, too.

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok021617.jpg

At this rate it'll be going skyward by June or July!

Core is really starting to rise and the garage is moving very fast.

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok022416.jpg

I just want the crane high enough to be seen for the NBA playoffs. Always provided cool shots.

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Looks like the elevator shafts are above ground level.

Wow!

Good progress on OKC's morning glass glow box. Happy that this project didn't go down the Fallopian tubes. It's a start for better things to come.

looked like they were starting to drill piers for second garage. Saw rebar supports on location at lunch. 3 projects will make a busy corner.

If you look @ Pete's last two photo posts, the construction trailers look to be made mobile now. So likely being moved somewhere? Stage Center Lake?

If you look @ Pete's last two photo posts, the construction trailers look to be made mobile now. So likely being moved somewhere? Stage Center Lake?

Not sure where it went, but they started with 7 trailers, now they have 6.

Believe it or not, I just learned from someone close to the construction team that they hope to top out the tower by the end of this year.

Also, the reason they are moving the construction trailers is they are getting ready to start on the 2nd parking garage.

That's an impressive schedule. Let's see if they can make it. It will be fun to watch this tower go up!

From Will... Gives a great perspective on how the massing will look from street level:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcaFuAJUsAAfa5M.jpg:large

Once they start going vertical it's always amazing to me how fast they go up. I really like this building. It looks like the United Nations building in New York, which I've always thought looks sharp with its sleek lines. Not sure if that's proper architectural terminology, but hopefully you know what I mean. Sharp!

Edit - For comparison, here's a pic of the UN building in NY.

http://i.imgur.com/cEUuYfd.jpg

If you remember, Devon went up about a floor a week once they got rolling.

So, this project would only need about 25 weeks once they get past the first two floors. After that, everything is pretty uniform and they just start cranking them out.

I bet that garage will be able to start parking cars within a couple of months and the western one should start moving pretty soon.

nice pic of the ground floor presence. It does appear that it will make a much better statement than say Oklahoma Tower does.

I'm hopeful that it will also make a better skyline presence than Oklahoma Tower does as well.

I drove by a couple days ago and got to think that at the rate they're going, this thing should be going skyward by mid year. Progress is rapidly being made.

http://www.microclimates.org/temp/okc1.jpg

^

Very cool! Thanks and welcome to the site.

You can see the second level is now being framed on the north side of the building.

This must be a drone shot ?

Thanks!! Yes, it's a drone shot from about 320' above the Dewey & California Ave area. Looking forward to posting more of these in the future, of this project and others.

Thanks!! Yes, it's a drone shot from about 320' above the Dewey & California Ave area. Looking forward to posting more of these in the future, of this project and others.

Yes, please do!

Thanks.

And we look forward to viewing your wonderful work.

Is it possible to do a drone pan-scan near the location of the tower at the final height of the building (430 feet). Also, while the drone is up there, could you take a pic of the drone just so we could see how high that will be, what it will look like from the ground nearby, and what it would look like from the top of the 'completed' tower.

I know this is a lot to ask, but this would be fascinating if you could do it. :)

Thanks!! Yes, it's a drone shot from about 320' above the Dewey & California Ave area. Looking forward to posting more of these in the future, of this project and others.

We will all be looking forward to it!
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One thing I'm noticing that I never really took in before with the renderings is the footprint of this building. Is anyone else seeing that this appears to be larger than perhaps was originally anticipated? Obviously the perspective and distance need to be taken into account, but this looks to be just as wide if not more so than Oklahoma Tower? So maybe after all even an extra floor or two would have been pushing the amount of space available to levels truly unnecessary.

I always thought this was going to be a relatively skinny tower, but I'm not so sure now.

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok030816.jpg

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/bok031016.jpg