View Full Version : General Weather Discussion - December 2014
venture 12-05-2014, 03:00 PM Live Chat @ Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html) | NWS Norman (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/) (OUN) | Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/) | Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.org/) | West TX Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/) | NWS OUN Fire Weather (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather) | Road Conditions (http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi)
Current Conditions
Air TemperatureDewpointWindsRainfall Last 24 Hourshttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TAIR.grad.png (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/air_temperature/air_temperature)http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/dewpoint/dewpoint_humidity)http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.gustbarbs.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_speed_gusts_with_barbs/wind)http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/24_hr_rainfall_accumulation/rainfall)
Advisory TableNWS Norman Warning AreaNWS Tulsa Warning Area
[*=left]Tornado Warning
[*=left]Tornado Watch
[*=left]Severe T-Storm Warning
[*=left]Severe T-Storm Watch
[*=left]Blizzard Warning
[*=left]Blizzard Watch
[*=left]Winter Storm Warning
[*=left]Winter Storm Watch
[*=left]Ice Storm Warning
[*=left]Red Flag Warning
[*=left]Winter Weather Advisory
[*=left]Wind Chill Advisory
[*=left]Wind Chill Warning
[*=left]Freezing Rain Advisory
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Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma
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Severe Weather Outlooks & Products
Day 1 (Today) OutlookDay 2 (Tomorrow) OutlookDay 3 OutlookOutlook for Days 4 through 8http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/)National Advisory MapSPC Mesoscale Discussions (MCD or MD)Regional Live Lightning Imagehttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/validmd.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)
SPC Watches
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/validww.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)http://images.blitzortung.org/Images/image_b_tx.png
Winter Precipitation Model Forecasts
NAM 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 84HRNAM 06Z/18Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 84HRRUC T+1.5HR Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 18HRhttp://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gifhttp://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gifhttp://www.wxcaster4.com/rap/CONUS1_RAP236_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_18HR.gif
WRF 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 48HRGFS 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 144HRGFS 06Z/18Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 120HRhttp://www.grib2.com/wrf/S-PLAINS_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_10-1_48HR.gifhttp://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_144HR.gifhttp://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_120HR.gif
Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time. Lightning image is © Blitzortung.org. Mesonet maps are all © of the Oklahoma Mesonet / OU Board of Regents.
LakeEffect 12-07-2014, 03:47 PM The NWS is hinting at an unsettled pattern in the 7-day... any info on what they mean?
venture 12-07-2014, 06:04 PM Could see a big time system in about a week enter the plains. More tonight...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/12/07/18/GFS_3_2014120718_F192_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png
Plutonic Panda 12-07-2014, 06:35 PM White Christmas? ;)
Bobby821 12-07-2014, 07:49 PM Yeah whats it looking like Snow? Rain ? Ice? hopefully something fun !! weather has been a bit boring lately.
ljbab728 12-07-2014, 09:12 PM Yeah whats it looking like Snow? Rain ? Ice? hopefully something fun !! weather has been a bit boring lately.
I like boring. :)
Anonymous. 12-08-2014, 08:16 AM Storm systems lining up for the next few weeks. We will take them one at a time.
First one looks to come late this weekend, looks like rain at the moment.
Anonymous. 12-08-2014, 07:19 PM Just for fun. This WILL change.
Dec. 15-16 storm (rain).
Dec. 18-19 storm (rain/snow).
Dec. 22 storm (snow).
Dec. 25-26 storm (snow).
Plutonic Panda 12-09-2014, 04:18 AM Just for fun. This WILL change.
Dec. 15-16 storm (rain).
Dec. 18-19 storm (rain/snow).
Dec. 22 storm (snow).
Dec. 25-26 storm (snow).
I'm holding you to that. If that doesn't play out exactly like you said, I will be very mad!! ;)
Plutonic Panda 12-09-2014, 04:22 AM I like boring. :)
I like my weather right at where it is appropriate to scream "not sure if we're gonna make it though this one!!" and/or where you are driving and not sure if you're going to make it home. Keeps things interesting and leaves you with questions, and I like questions. According to JTF, so do cougars. ;)
venture 12-11-2014, 12:01 AM Couple systems coming up for Oklahoma over the next 10 days.
System One
Portion of the strong West Coast storm will move south through the Four Corners region and into the Southern Plains. Low will reform over the Panhandles and come through on Sunday. Storm will deepen over Oklahoma and push east through the day on Sunday the 14th. Heavy rain possible with this one with some getting over an inch of rain. If it was mid April and this was coming through, we would be talking about a lot more, but overall just rain. Doesn't really look like a severe setup at this point at all. Temps in the low to mid 60s ahead of it, but they will fall behind it with some frost on Tuesday morning.
System Two
Our next storm system will have two components. Moisture will come in from the south through Texas and then a batch of energy moving out of the Southwest. Scattered rain will kick on Thursday the 18th over much of the state, some heavier precip south. GFS might be going crazy here, but we'll play through with it to get it out there, but precip will increase substantially by Friday morning - the 19th. Some areas could see over 3 inches of rain, especially SE OK. Storm will continue to organize over Central TX and fling heavy rain over us through Friday. It will start to pull NE and move into Central Arkansas by Saturday morning. A dry slot will develop over Northern Texas that might enter Southern Oklahoma at this time, however a good area of wrap around moisture is possible over much of the state. A possible heavier band of precip from NC OK back through much of western OK. By Saturday Afternoon (20th) this will push off to the east very quickly and things will shut down.
Now system two is interesting because precip type becomes a major player. Friday morning, much of the state will be between 35-40 degrees with the exception being the Red River Valley in the low 40s. Here in Central OK temperature profile will have us all rain at this point, but we will only be maybe 3 degrees above freezing from about 6000 ft and down to the surface. Change over appears quite possible by Friday evening. When I say we are going to be riding the line, we will literally be right there. From about 7500 ft down through about 2000 ft above the surface, we'll be right at freezing. Above 7500 ft well below freezing and below 2000 ft we'll be just above freezing. This could be a pretty good setup for a heavy, wet snow or at least a rain/snow mix. So for this period it could be very concerning if we get colder air in here than forecast, if the precip amounts verify, because this could result in well over a half foot of snow.
By Saturday morning, much of West Central to Northwest OK will be below freezing at the surface. Then from around Wichita Falls to Pauls Valley to Stroud and up I-44 temps will be at around 35 degrees on that line - colder NW of it. At this point upper air has all snow for Central Oklahoma and back to the west. Amounts are going to vary a lot because of a wet and warm ground. So any amounts I talk about will need to have that modifier with them. Now if everything sticks through Saturday morning, we could see 1-3" along and southeast of I-44 until temps get too warm. NW of that line 3-6" inches possible, with the heaviest band possible from Altus to Clinton/Weatherford-Enid-Ponca City. Like we saw a few weeks ago, where the main snow band sets up is tough to call and it could easily shift from the locations mentioned. Honestly...this whole forecast will probably be dead in 6 hours with the next model run, but it doesn't hurt to get it out there on what may be coming.
So bottom line for Oklahoma City and the Metro area. This weekend, just rain. Following storm high potential for a mixed bag of fun. "Worst" case scenario right now could see us with almost 2 inches of rain and over 4" of snow. I put worst in quotes because moisture is never a bad thing around here, it just might make things a bit sloppy. We'll have to watch this and see if models keep trending with this storm. If it does, we'll start talking about grabbing a glass of milk to enjoy with our bread.
bradh 12-11-2014, 08:08 AM what's the outlook for Kansas late next week? was going to head to Topeka for a work trip 18th and 19th
venture 12-11-2014, 03:27 PM what's the outlook for Kansas late next week? was going to head to Topeka for a work trip 18th and 19th
Things are still bouncing around a lot on the placement of the storm for next week. 06Z jumped it north, 12Z way south...stay tuned. :)
bradh 12-11-2014, 03:31 PM Things are still bouncing around a lot on the placement of the storm for next week. 06Z jumped it north, 12Z way south...stay tuned. :)
pretty typical when i try to plan winter trips up there, one time i went up there for a pre-construction meeting in Olathe and ended up there two extra nights
Anonymous. 12-12-2014, 11:49 AM Just some simple updates with afternoon model runs.
This weekend is pretty much sure bet on Sunday into Monday rain and storms.
Next week looks fine until about the 18th, when things start getting questionable. Looks to start rain, but possible end snow. Or perhaps be all snow. GFS takes track of the low directly through OK to provide heavy precip. regardless of type. Right now this storm looks like classic battle of temperatures across the state.
Christmas week is still in long-range, but storm potential around the holiday is still present.
ljbab728 12-12-2014, 11:56 PM This had to be astounding to see in person.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gspAnSBmtvY
Plutonic Panda 12-13-2014, 12:05 AM This had to be astounding to see in person.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gspAnSBmtvY
You posted that before I did.
ljbab728 12-13-2014, 12:42 AM You posted that before I did.
Since you haven't posted it, I do believe you're correct, plupan. :)
venture 12-13-2014, 01:43 AM Marginal Risk for severe storms on Sunday...including the outside chance of a tornado and some small hail.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2014
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW OF
THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PREVAILING SPLIT BELT OF
WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC REMAIN AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY SIMILAR AMONG THE
VARIOUS MODELS...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD PERSISTS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT OF EACH MODEL. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN...OVER INTERIOR NORTH
AMERICA...IS AMPLIFICATION FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NORTHERN
STREAM...ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA...AND ITS POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE ON A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
ADVANCING EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS LATTER FEATURE LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FAIRLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK /ON THE ORDER OF 70-80 KT AT 500 MB/...BUT
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING STILL APPEARS PROBABLE AS IT SPREADS ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...IT DOES APPEAR INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW CENTER
COULD APPROACH 1000 MB OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FILLING AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
PRECEDING THE UPPER IMPULSE...A 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET
PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF SEASONABLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT /PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ AS FAR
NORTH AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
AND DESTABILIZATION REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LOWER PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EMANATING FROM LINGERING COLD SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE UNCERTAINTIES EVIDENT IN THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE THE OUTLOOK OF A MORE PRECISE AND HIGHER
CATEGORICAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THE PRESENT TIME. HOWEVER...A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT STILL DOES NOT
APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MID/UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ARCING BAND OF STORMS EARLY IN THE DAY...LIKELY WITHIN A CONFLUENCE
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE BASED
ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT BEGINS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE LAYER SHEAR. ACTIVITY COULD
EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING...AND AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS A TORNADO...BEFORE INFLOW OF DRIER/ MORE STABLE AIR
CONTRIBUTES TO WEAKENING OF CONVECTION AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER
EAST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING
AND INSOLATION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AS MID-LEVELS DRY AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
FURTHER...JUST AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE. THIS SHOULD BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW CENTER...WHICH...AT
THE PRESENT TIME...SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS DURING THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO
SUPERCELLS...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH WANING BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
venture 12-13-2014, 02:30 PM Marginal risk still for tomorrow. Main risk are some isolated severe wind gusts and a quick spin up tornado.
educator1953 12-13-2014, 04:10 PM Thanks, Venture. I've been checking here periodically for your updates. I appreciate all you do.
It's nice here in Duncan. It almost reminds me of spring. I even got outside and did some gardening.
tfvc.org 12-13-2014, 04:41 PM I don't think I have ever seen it this foggy for this long. I usually see some fog in the mornings but it isn't very often and doesn't last. Several days of almost endless fog just seems odd for Oklahoma.
venture 12-13-2014, 06:23 PM This weather is very Great Lakes-ish type weather that they have around October. Very strange for us here.
Anonymous. 12-13-2014, 06:46 PM The 18th-19th storm looks like it will most likely be winter precip. However, models are also speeding up the timing and thus amounts and the track are not favorable for heavy snow.
Bobby821 12-13-2014, 08:44 PM The 18th-19th storm looks like it will most likely be winter precip. However, models are also speeding up the timing and thus amounts and the track are not favorable for heavy snow.
Dam :-(
venture 12-14-2014, 10:52 AM Slight Risk now issued for the counties along and south/east of I-40 and I-35. Marginal risk remains for the rest of Southern, Central and back into NW OK for today.
AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2014
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHEAST TX...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN KS INTO NORTH
TX...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A POWERFUL UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHEAST NM...WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
ACROSS TX TOWARD OK. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS ANALYZED OVER
SOUTHEAST CO WITH AN ARCING DRYLINE EXTENDING INTO WESTERN OK.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...AND GIVEN THE SHORT
DAYLIGHT THIS TIME OF YEAR...INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
TO THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...SEVERAL 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY FROM
WESTERN KS...THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OK...INTO NORTH TX. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRONG FORCING WILL POSE SOME RISK OF GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...AND EVEN A TORNADO THROUGHOUT THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.
THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT IS OVER SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTH TX.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND MARGINAL
SURFACE-BASED CAPE LATER TODAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THIS REGION.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT RISK AREA.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 12/14/2014
BG918 12-14-2014, 12:32 PM Dam :-(
Still a possibility with the 23rd/24th storm at least going off the GFS runs today.
venture 12-14-2014, 01:11 PM First line working through now. Severe risk comes with the activity developing behind here. Narrow area of clearing ahead of the new storms. Conditions will allow for some marginal severe stuff including rotating storms.
HRRR around 4PM today...
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/17/OKC/hrrrOKC_prec_radar_005.gif
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/17/OKC/hrrrOKC_con_uphly_005.gif
venture 12-14-2014, 02:02 PM Hail with the Comanche/Caddo County storm confirmed. Moving NE.
venture 12-14-2014, 02:34 PM http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1976.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK THROUGH NCNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142023Z - 142300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW INCLUDING A
PORTION OF CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED IN
A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM WCNTRL OK INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX
WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF 500 J/KG
MLCAPE. THIS ZONE OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE
TO POCKETS OF MODEST DIABATIC WARMING WHERE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS EXIST
IN DRY SLOT REGION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. ALSO MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
ADVANCING EWD AND OVERTAKING THE MOIST AXIS. STORMS HAVE UNDERGONE A
RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY
AXIS DEVELOPS EWD. VWP DATA INDICATE LARGE HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED
WITH A 40 KT LLJ...AND A MID-LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 45-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THOUGH
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR...IT MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
..DIAL/HART.. 12/14/2014
venture 12-14-2014, 02:39 PM From WeatherNation...these are from the storms in SW OK moving towards the Metro area.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-a-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xaf1/v/t1.0-9/10606222_10152972408324874_967931114829678112_n.jp g?oh=2d556e97ddc2a44f227b3fdf8138eb47&oe=553D4727&__gda__=1427192208_60ff35f5c6cc60b272163f3407a5981 1
https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfa1/v/t1.0-9/1896930_10152972408404874_5755855396950168126_n.jp g?oh=bfc1bb321b85da0e517425299533c6e4&oe=54FB07BF&__gda__=1430456372_e52b8f1c0bf16a3b95ea38cf0823782 c
venture 12-14-2014, 02:40 PM https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B41-dphCMAAKsZn.png
Anonymous. 12-14-2014, 03:26 PM Look for TOR watch soon. Going to be weak EF0 to EF1 cold-core spin ups.
venture 12-14-2014, 03:46 PM Rotation wrapping up near Chickasha.
venture 12-14-2014, 03:50 PM At 3:47 PM, Chickasha [Grady Co, OK] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HAIL of half dollar size (E1.25 INCH)
venture 12-14-2014, 03:51 PM https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B42OknuCIAAPx8P.png:large
Bunty 12-14-2014, 03:54 PM Stillwater only got .10 during the first round of showers. But then the rest of the state hasn't had big rain amounts, so far. Maybe new development to the southwest will bring more rain. The earthquake afterwards at 3:19PM was a more noteworthy natural event. It seemed a little stronger than usual, so may be closer to 4.0 than 3.0M.
venture 12-14-2014, 04:57 PM Widespread quarters and golfball in the north Metro.
Two more storms firing up in the SW metro area.
venture 12-14-2014, 04:59 PM Some strong rotation now NW of Spencer.
venture 12-14-2014, 05:11 PM TOrnado on the ground. NE 150th and ANderson.
Jim Kyle 12-14-2014, 05:13 PM Sirens sounding at NW 122 and Council Road.
turnpup 12-14-2014, 05:14 PM Also at I-44 and NW 23rd.
venture 12-14-2014, 05:16 PM https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B42hWGJCQAArg5F.png:large
venture 12-14-2014, 05:40 PM Hook developing now south of Noble...moving into SE Norman.
venture 12-14-2014, 05:54 PM https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B42qatWCEAEgBKG.png:large
venture 12-14-2014, 06:13 PM Two more storms I'm watching, in addition to the one moving through McLoud and Dale...
1) Just N of Washington moving towards Noble and Norman. Heavy rain and hail likely.
2) Storm over Cox City in SE Grady County. Tail end charlie with a little spin to it.
Bunty 12-14-2014, 11:34 PM For the second round, Stillwater only got around .04". One storm went to the northwest of Stillwater. Another storm that had a weak tornado in it near Arcadia Lake had weakened when it arrived to Stillwater. The storms were so small and fast moving, you didn't get much rain, even if you got one that looked strong on radar, with the exception being the northeast and southeast parts of the state where the rain was more concentrated with amounts around 1 inch fairly common.
LocoAko 12-15-2014, 08:47 AM Got this picture from NW Expressway west of Lake Hefner of the tornadic storm over Arcadia while the sirens sounded. This after getting nailed with 1.5" hail at NW23rd & May area. One of the most gorgeous, unedited sights I've ever seen. Quite the interesting December day!
https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/t31.0-8/10869720_10152619348144200_8134754330121420911_o.j pg
https://scontent-a-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/1280460_10152619310519200_1340961638962917315_n.jp g?oh=cee1099950f3b120b5278fccf86f7f05&oe=5502D996
https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10847796_10152619310459200_7909433498923171340_n.j pg?oh=94d8f925ce900a0d41e49720553c511a&oe=55040DBD&__gda__=1425945771_4156ddcbaebdfe8853931bdbaca3bfb 6
SoonerDave 12-15-2014, 09:04 AM Man oh man, just when you think its going to be a quiet December.....we get a hailstorm thrown at us.
Just when you think you've got a handle on Oklahoma's unpredictable weather.....LOL
turnpup 12-15-2014, 09:34 AM Well, LokoAko's pictures have mine beat for sure, but what I caught was still pretty awesome. These were taken in the I-44/NW 23rd area, looking to the southeast, at about 5:15 p.m. yesterday. The pictures don't do it justice, but the blue sky behind those storm clouds was so bright it was surreal.
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Anonymous. 12-15-2014, 11:05 AM GFS has pretty much removed the storm for late this week. Maybe some moisture Thursday, but nothing significant over main body of OK at this time. Low doesn't start cranking until it is east of the state.
Looking towards Christmas week, things still look promising for a storm on or around 25-26th. (at this time)
Long-range shows active pattern continues into January. (at this time)
FritterGirl 12-15-2014, 11:12 AM Anonymous, so are you saying we might actually get Winter, or by "storm" do you mean more rain and hail? I'm ready for more Arctic fun.
Anonymous. 12-15-2014, 11:22 AM Yea when I say storm, I am talking about a Low tracking across the southern plains. Sorry for confusion, I guess I should start saying 'storm system'.
But right now the rest of the storm systems look to be winter precip.
SoonerDave 12-15-2014, 02:20 PM Yea when I say storm, I am talking about a Low tracking across the southern plains. Sorry for confusion, I guess I should start saying 'storm system'.
But right now the rest of the storm systems look to be winter precip.
Oh, no, not....Snowmaggeddon 2014??? :) :)
JUST KIDDING
PennyQuilts 12-15-2014, 03:05 PM Well, LokoAko's pictures have mine beat for sure, but what I caught was still pretty awesome. These were taken in the I-44/NW 23rd area, looking to the southeast, at about 5:15 p.m. yesterday. The pictures don't do it justice, but the blue sky behind those storm clouds was so bright it was surreal.
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We had some gorgeous clouds in SW OKC.9775
SoonerDave 12-15-2014, 03:24 PM We had some gorgeous clouds in SW OKC.9775
I am SO incredibly jealous of that pic, Penny. You should get that printed and framed, especially with that red barn on the right. It absolutely *makes* that picture.
I'd give my eye tooth to have all my stuff set up for a cloud picture like that. Just gorgeous.
PennyQuilts 12-15-2014, 03:41 PM Thanks, SD. MY back yard!
Anonymous. 12-15-2014, 04:04 PM GFS could be outlier for system later this week. NAM keeping things interesting for now. Will have to watch closely. Temps right now look like it will be a very cold rain.
turnpup 12-15-2014, 05:26 PM We had some gorgeous clouds in SW OKC.9775
Oh wow! You get the benefit of the whole horizon. Nice!
Tydude 12-15-2014, 10:31 PM News 9 says we could see snow on Christmas Eve KOCO 5 has us Dry and in the 50s.
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