NAM moving the storm system east just like GFS for later this week, does not look significant at this time.

GFS painting doomsday across the southern plains for the 25-26 storm.

GFS painting doomsday across the southern plains for the 25-26 storm.[/QUOTE]

Lets hope this verifies and in fact happends!!!

Based off the 06Z and 12Z GFS runs, next 3 systems look like non-events for Oklahoma. System 1 this weekend won't get going until it is east of us. System 2 will be well south into TX. System 3 for Christmas looks to be mostly dry for much of the state.

the way our wacky weather is, i think all these forecasts should come with an asterisk.
*could and will change with the next model run.

;–)

the way our wacky weather is, i think all these forecasts should come with an asterisk.
*could and will change with the next model run.

;–)

They always have since we started doing them on here. ;)

Hopefully we will be cold and snowy ( Blizardy) for Christmas

Scattered storms with rain and sleet moving through. More sleet the further north of you go. No major issues expected.

Hopefully we will be cold and snowy ( Blizardy) for Christmas

Speaking with someone from Tulsa on the phone, he said it was supposed to be nice, checked it out and as of now, 51 and mostly sunny for the 25th. Nice.... Having lived in Chicagoland for years, I don't mind if I never see snow again.

Speaking with someone from Tulsa on the phone, he said it was supposed to be nice, checked it out and as of now, 51 and mostly sunny for the 25th. Nice.... Having lived in Chicagoland for years, I don't mind if I never see snow again.

You should probably keep moving south then. LOL

Looking like a 60 degree Christmas for us. Works for me. Hopefully the kids can get outside and try out a few presents

Speaking with someone from Tulsa on the phone, he said it was supposed to be nice, checked it out and as of now, 51 and mostly sunny for the 25th. Nice.... Having lived in Chicagoland for years, I don't mind if I never see snow again.

As someone who still has nightmares from the '09 blizzard, I'll second this. We tend to romantisize snow on Christmas, not realizing how incredibly disruptive it is, even for a region that is prepared for it, much less a place like OK that is not.

As far as the 09 snowstorm, I remember barely making it out of OKC to Dallas (3 hour drive was a 7.5 hours), and I was the lucky few. I heard so many stories about people sleeping in hotels, their cars, stranger's homes, missing Christmas with dying relatives, nearly getting frostbite having to walk miles from their stuck cars, etc. Its really a miracle that more people did not perish in the storm.

Christmas 2009 was the Holiday from Hell. That it not something I never want to go through again.

It should be 65 and sunny on Christmas in Dallas, sooooo looking forward to bar-b-queing with the fam. And given the fact we are entering an El Nino period and there's way less snowpack then what existed last year, this winter should be very benign.

You should probably keep moving south then. LOL

Dude, I know, for many reasons I wish I had... :p It's actually kinda funny - moved out of Chicagoland because we were tired of the snow and cold, first winter we were in Seattle (2007-8, I think), they got record amounts of snow (a white Christmas, I believe). Left there, came to OKC, first winter here was 2008-09, no explanation necessary. Winter luuuuuuuuvs us, lol....

Winter is coming...about Dec 28th-ish. :)

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_temp_240.gif

Winter is coming...about Dec 28th-ish. :)

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/CGP/gfsCGP_sfc_temp_240.gif

Can we expect winter weatger (snow/ice) anytime soon?

Can we expect winter weatger (snow/ice) anytime soon?

Not really. Things are bypassing us for the most part now and we'll stay dry.

Chance for snow mixing in with the rain tonight over the area, don't expect much. Better shot of accumulating snow now for this coming weekend. Could see a strip of 1-2" along I-44 through the state. As usual...subject to change. :)

So long as my party Saturday night doesn't get snowed out.

Models are super sucky so far this winter.

New snowstorm showing up for NYE for most of OK at this time. Cold air comes in and stays put for the forseeable future beginning this weekend. Perhaps a snow shower or two Saturday.

Just curious. Is the lack of snow pack to the north of OK affecting the amount of cold weather that is coming into this area?

Local meteorologists always try to work snow into the forecast for Christmas even if the chance is minuscule. If it's remotely possible they will hype it.

Well to be fair, models were indicating a system affecting OK around Christmas time frame. Look at the radar for the entire US right now and you can see how broad of a low is affecting everyone this week. OK just happens to be in the dry slot of the big picture.

Right now there is severe weather in the SE and glancing snow showers from the great lakes all the way down to KS right now. The "wrap-around" cloud cover is moving into C OK right now. A very difficult forecast is shaping up for northern parts of AR and into extreme eastern MO as the main low will eject out of TX and temperatures will be just near 32F as the system deepens and pulls cooler air into it - resulting in the chance of heavy snow banding in a very slim corridor.

To answer the question about snow-pack, short answer - yes. But it is not too uncommon to have a weak or non-existant snowpack in late December. It looks like things will get cranking in January - and here in OK we will be cold regardless of any snowpack - the pattern is shifting to bring storms further south and pooling of cold air over the majority of the US.

Some light snow this weekend. Should be too bad...some places and inch or so.

Bread and Milk Watch for January 2nd.

Still looks like snow for January 2nd...amounts still up in the air. Some runs yesterday were hinting 6" or more, today more like 2-3". All will depend on the wrap around moisture and track of the main low.

Mix of rain, snow and sleet moving up through the area now. Shouldn't cause many issues.

Winter weather advisory out until noon got the metro area and back to the southwest. Inch out two for most people, but still nothing major.

Area of heavier snow moving up into the southern Metro area now. Could get another inch out of it.

Very surprised by the snow this morning. Very wet and sticky!

One last band to go. It is currently running along I-44 and is gradually shifting east. Still another couple hours of snow for people east of the band.

It's a miracle. Snow in OK without 30 mph winds. Still windy, but not drift-worthy.

Significant miss by all on this forecast...Did any of the models predict this much precip for the metro?

Yes....a couple of them hinted at the potential of accumulating snowfall:

18Z (12pm) GFS 12/26

https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/1538627_10204242375872110_5201348879402691807_n.jp g?oh=7e41ff8956157839d25f26c87b3e75c4&oe=552C126F&__gda__=1430337285_1a814c92a01cb0cdc9051bdc373e2d1 9

01Z (7pm) HRRR 12/26

https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/10888689_10153419630218776_4612271145940854454_n.j pg?oh=74d38b2509acb1bda306c7d88aa81338&oe=55343972&__gda__=1429937508_95001326db628e1d107c13996d4f8a1 b

Significant miss by all on this forecast...Did any of the models predict this much precip for the metro?

A few days ago one did pick up on a strip of snow along I-44 into SW OK...but moved away from it the closer in. SO not totally a miss...just did horrible handling the short term.

A few days ago one did pick up on a strip of snow along I-44 into SW OK...but moved away from it the closer in. SO not totally a miss...just did horrible handling the short term.

Figured no models predicted it recently since even the hypers were downplaying it. I'm sure it only happened by being a couple degrees colder than predictions.

I think it's ridiculous that Aaron Tuttle is bragging about how he "called it" and Jonathan Conder feels he has to issue an apology for "missing" the forecast. It's science, but not exact. It could have gone in a total different direction.

Loved watching the big flakes this morning. I guess the streets were still pretty warm as there was no accumulation on them, at least in my neighborhood. The dog always enjoys nosing around in it!

I think it's ridiculous that Aaron Tuttle is bragging about how he "called it" and Jonathan Conder feels he has to issue an apology for "missing" the forecast. It's science, but not exact. It could have gone in a total different direction.

Loved watching the big flakes this morning. I guess the streets were still pretty warm as there was no accumulation on them, at least in my neighborhood. The dog always enjoys nosing around in it!

Well Aaron Tuttle is a well established class A douche, so does that really shock you? LOL

Temps came in a couple degrees colder when precip started to fall and the warmer layer of air above the surface didn't do much to keep it all liquid. I prefer this versus a cold rain and dead looking outside.

Today is my daughter's 8th birthday. It was the perfect birthday surprise for her. Beautiful snow and now sunny skies. And the roads are clear. Couldn't be better!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full1.jpg

3-6 inches? I don't think that's enough inches to get Emily Sutton excited.

3-6 inches? I don't think that's enough inches to get Emily Sutton excited.

You never know..........

Dude, I know, for many reasons I wish I had... :p It's actually kinda funny - moved out of Chicagoland because we were tired of the snow and cold, first winter we were in Seattle (2007-8, I think), they got record amounts of snow (a white Christmas, I believe). Left there, came to OKC, first winter here was 2008-09, no explanation necessary. Winter luuuuuuuuvs us, lol....

Having spent a lot of time in Chicagoland in years past. The winters here don't even compare. Folks freak out over 4" of snow here that melts off in a week, when up north they get multiple snow falls over sveral days that adds up to more than a foot on the ground for weeks. The biggest problem we have here is ice storms. The winter of '07 was a doozie.

Having spent a lot of time in Chicagoland in years past. The winters here don't even compare. Folks freak out over 4" of snow here that melts off in a week, when up north they get multiple snow falls over sveral days that adds up to more than a foot on the ground for weeks. The biggest problem we have here is ice storms. The winter of '07 was a doozie.

They also get the streets cleared pretty quickly there. I would much rather go through the dead times of the year with snow on the ground to brighten things up a bit. We just need to get better getting the roads clean faster. :)

early thoughts on the coming week? seems to be some agreement by the locals on some wintry precip on new year's day...

early thoughts on the coming week? seems to be some agreement by the locals on some wintry precip on new year's day...

New Year's Day looks to be the lighter precip days when looking at the 1st and 2nd. 06Z GFS put out some light freezing rain for Jan 1st in last night's run. For the 2nd a bit heavier precip but the precip type up in the air. There is still a lot of back and forth right now when it comes to precip amounts and type.

12Z GFS is about 2 degrees too warm on the surface from us having a major ice storm. Rainfall around 0.75" on the 2nd.

Thought I'd throw in a couple of captures from our internal runs of today's 12Z ECMWF with precip type forecast for the metro:

12AM Friday - Right on the edge of rain/freezing rain

9907

6AM Friday - Rain

9904

12PM Saturday - Wraparound - Rain changing to freezing rain/sleet

9905

12AM Sunday - Wraparound - Freezing rain/sleet/snow mix

9906

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT:

Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Harper; Hughes; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Was hita; Woods; Woodward

Several winter weather impacts are expected this week. First of all...arctic air will begin moving into Oklahoma this afternoon. Gusty north winds will allow wind chill values to fall near and below zero over much of the region late tonight through early Wednesday. In addition...scattered snow showers will be possible over western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas Tuesday and Tuesday night. A few areas of northwest and west-central Oklahoma could see an inch of snow. Attention then turns toward Thursday through early Friday...when widespread sleet and freezing rain appear possible. With arctic air in place for a few days prior to the onset of sleet and freezing rain...travel impacts will be possible Thursday and Friday. During this wintry precipitation event...the forecast calls for relatively light wind which will help to minimize the impacts on power lines and vegetation. Lastly...as the storm system leaves the southern plains...a change over to snow is possible Saturday and Saturday night. The highest likelihood for any significant snow accumulations currently appear to be over far northern Oklahoma. Since this is a complex storm system and forecast data will likely change as the system evolves...we strongly urge you to stay weather aware by monitoring later forecasts.

12Z NAM came in a bit colder....here is forecast accum fzra through 6pm Thursday:

http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_84HR.gif

Just came to post same thing.

First NAM run this afternoon is Bread and Milk.

GFS dumping good wrap-around snow, too.

Yesterday's 12Z run of the GEM model = ugly.

http://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-FZRN_126HR.gif

http://grib2.com/gem/WINTER_GEM_SFC_ACCUM-SLEET_126HR.gif

Just came to post same thing.

First NAM run this afternoon is Bread and Milk.

GFS dumping good wrap-around snow, too.

12Z GFS actually paints a much rosier picture as most precip falls as plain old rain for the entirety of the event.

Yea, I meant for TX PH. The storm in general looks like it could have a nice wrap-around. With the track being so up-in-the-air, I figured I would mention it.

The local mets are already starting the hype train on Twitter for this system. Should be fun to watch it change.

I'm working on getting the January thread going early since this event is mostly for then. Will update it to have the FZRN graphics as well.

just came to post same thing.

First nam run this afternoon is bread and milk.

Gfs dumping good wrap-around snow, too.

bring it!!!

Just came to post same thing.

First NAM run this afternoon is Bread and Milk.

GFS dumping good wrap-around snow, too.

http://youtu.be/i6zaVYWLTkU