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[*=left]Ice Storm Warning
[*=left]Red Flag Warning
[*=left]Winter Weather Advisory
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[*=left]Wind Chill Warning
[*=left]Freezing Rain Advisory

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Winter Precipitation Model Forecasts


NAM 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 84HRNAM 06Z/18Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 84HRRUC T+1.5HR Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 18HRhttp://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gifhttp://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_84HR.gifhttp://www.wxcaster4.com/rap/CONUS1_RAP236_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_18HR.gif
WRF 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 48HRGFS 12Z/00Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 144HRGFS 06Z/18Z Run - 10:1 Snow Accumulation - 120HRhttp://www.grib2.com/wrf/S-PLAINS_WRF_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL_10-1_48HR.gifhttp://grib2.com/gfs/WINTER_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_144HR.gifhttp://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_120HR.gif

Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time. Lightning image is © Blitzortung.org. Mesonet maps are all © of the Oklahoma Mesonet / OU Board of Regents.

Decent shot of rain moving in tomorrow through Tuesday. Some areas along I-44 and to the SE will get well over an inch of rain. Nothing severe as it stands now, maybe some marginal stuff SW.

Longer range nothing severe showing up either. Next storm system comes in around the 14th with another chance of heavy rain and snow mixed in.

Heavy rain still on tap for tonight and tomorrow. Rainfall forecasts below. Snow still in the longer range forecast between the 14th and 18th depending on the timing of that system.

NWS Forecast
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full2.jpg

NAM 36 Hour
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/SGP/namSGP_sfc_precacc_036.gif

GFS 36 Hour
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_precacc_036.gif

This will be great heading into the winter months where we already have exceedingly dry conditions. Let's hope the main rain band is larger than forecasted at the moment - as most of OK needs it.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1903.gif

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN NM...WRN TX / TX PANHANDLE...AND
WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032143Z - 032345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST
AND/OR LARGE HAIL REPORT.

DISCUSSION...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND WRN TX HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPS RISING INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEREFORE...DESPITE MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG HAVE BEEN REALIZED PER
MESO-ANALYSIS DATA.

WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KT WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION /E.G. SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES/ WITH ANY OF THE MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP. CONSIDERING THIS POTENTIAL...AND THE
POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING DUE TO SOME GREATER
INSOLATION...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING.

..PICCA/MOSIER/MEAD.. 11/03/2014

Looks like band is setting as forecast. Lots of rain!

For what it's worth, I forecast a snowy cold winter and a white Christmas this winter, is that ok? ;)

For what it's worth, I forecast a snowy cold winter and a white Christmas this winter, is that ok? ;)

Only the Christmas part.

Close to an inch and a quarter of rain in Stillwater as of midnight with more rain coming.

Only the Christmas part.I'll take it! ;P

How likely is this snow event coming together on the 14th? and will this be an all out snow or just a flurry or 2 mixed in event?

For what it's worth, I forecast a snowy cold winter and a white Christmas this winter, is that ok? ;)

Hope you're right, bring it on!

So what's the story on next week and next weekend? Where is the best source for long range forecasting? I'm headed to CLE next Friday for a football game next Sunday, sounds like I need to bring my ski gear with me!

For CLE this weekend looks like a fast clipper like system blowing through that might bring a rain/snow mix. Following weekend looks cold and dry.

For down here, the focus would be on a storm system coming in from the Pac NW around the 8th and 9th. It will dive into Nebraska and really deepen. When this happens it is going to pull a ton of cold air down from Western Canada over much of the US. The low will then head back north up over Hudson Bay and continues to pour tons of cold air down our way. GFS on Nov 12th has OKC in the 30s for highs that day and down below freezing by early evening.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/US/gfsUS_sfc_temp_216.gif

Do I expect it to play out exactly like this? No. However, don't be shocked to see a decent cold snap take place. Now the next question...what about precip? Good or bad...this system is coming in pretty dry. It doesn't look like any precip is really going to accompany it here in OK. When it comes to precip we will probably need to look just beyond Nov 20th for a possible precip maker.

Cold air still on the way as I've been mentioning for a few days now. Snow chances are minimal still, but don't get shocked to see some next Weds/Thursday...ish.

Snow chances are minimal still, but don't get shocked to see some next Weds/Thursday...ish.

Don't be shocked if you see me on the news running around with my new propane weed torch trying to melt it before it hits the ground. ;)

For down here, the focus would be on a storm system coming in from the Pac NW around the 8th and 9th. It will dive into Nebraska and really deepen. When this happens it is going to pull a ton of cold air down from Western Canada over much of the US. The low will then head back north up over Hudson Bay and continues to pour tons of cold air down our way. GFS on Nov 12th has OKC in the 30s for highs that day and down below freezing by early evening.


I presume this is the remnant of Nuri?

venture i checked the CLE forecast today, snow showers the morning before kickoff Sunday....oh boy!

venture i checked the CLE forecast today, snow showers the morning before kickoff Sunday....oh boy!

Should be nothing to worry about.

Update for us...late on the 14th expect snow to move into Northern OK. 1-2" possible north two tiers of counties. Another wave of snow on the 16th has the chance to bring a widespread 1-2" over much of the state...but I'm not holding my breath.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/11/08/00/GFS_3_2014110800_F216_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Looks like winter will arrive this coming week. I keep hearing old timers saying this will be a much colder than average winter. I guess some of the old timers get this from the almanac. I used to hear about the almanac years ago being popular for upcoming weather forcasts but haven't really heard mention of it in many years. I wonder just how accurate it is. Anyone have any experience using the alamanc?

A friend of mine who keeps horses here said that their winter coats were growing on them earlier than usual which she asserts means that it will be a harsher winter. Anyone else seen any other signs in nature of a tougher winter?

I am pretty sure, from everything I have heard, that this will be like last winter, with regular polar vortexes bringing below normal temperatures to the eastern half of the United States.

Oh to get through a season with out the buzz words "polar vortex" would be amazing. ;)

Cold air still on tap, no changes there. Snow chances look best on Saturday into Sunday. Nothing major at all and most will be light and mixed with rain it seems. Cold air remains with a strong reinforcement coming around the 18th and 19th. Talking highs in the 20s.

Get your holiday decorations up this weekend. Fast. :-P

FREEZE WATCH - Doesn't include Oklahoma City:

Freeze Watch

Updated: Sun Nov-09-14 12:51pm CST
Effective: Sun Nov-09-14 12:51pm CST
Expires: Tue Nov-11-14 11:00am CST
Severity: Moderate
Urgency: Future
Certainty: Possible
Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Beckham; Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Custer; Dewey; Garfield; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Logan; Major; Noble; Payne; Roger Mills; Wash ita

Instructions: Think about how you will protect sensitive plants from the cold.

Message summary: ...freeze watch in effect from late monday night through tuesday morning...
* temperature: 28 to 32 degrees minimum.
* impacts: many cold-intolerant plants could be damaged.

Everyone in the state is going to have a hard freeze this week. No sense in "watching" for it. ;)

This time of year freezes should be expected. "Freeze Watches" are important in April or May when there is a late season cold snap after most people have started their spring gardening.

This time of year freezes should be expected. "Freeze Watches" are important in April or May when there is a late season cold snap after most people have started their spring gardening.

They will always do them until a killing freeze ends the growing season. This Tues/Weds should handle that.

Everyone in the state is going to have a hard freeze this week. No sense in "watching" for it. ;)

So my two surviving Begonias from the summer survived the last freeze. So I'll know to try covering them up again.

For those like Bunty who have outdoor plants that don't like the cold...here is the time frame we are looking at to be below freezing.

Weds 12AM until 11AM, and then from 6PM until 10AM Thursday.
Thurs 6PM until 10AM Friday.
Saturday 12AM until 8AM.
Sunday 12AM until 8AM.

Snowfall outlook...GFS is pretty dry so this is based off of Euro.

Late Friday through Midnight Saturday morning - Light snow/flurries PH and far NW. Dusting to an inch.
12AM Saturday to 3AM - Same areas, light snow. Another inch.
3AM to 6AM - Light snow much of Western OK, west of US 81. 1-2" NW OK, 1" or less SW OK.

Late Saturday through Midnight Sunday morning - Another wave, light snow PH and W OK. 1" or less.
12AM Sunday through 6AM - Light snow along and north of I-44. 1" or less Central and NE, around 1-2" WC and NW OK.
6AM to 12PM Noon - Light snow Central and East. Less than an inch central, 1-2" NE.

How much do I buy this snowfall forecast? I don't. GFS is dry as a bone, but allowing averages to have a place here it does tell me that there will be some snow around and some areas could get a dusting or an inch.

I'm coming out of my summer hibernation. Last night's Euro has woke me up showing a southern plains classic winter storm for the coming weekend! GFS could be struggling in the 5-10 range with the cold, but we'll see if it brings it back.

Are you talking about this coming weekend Nov 15th & 16th or the following weekend with the second shot of cold air heading our way? this weekend looks mostly like light rain and low pops according to NWS as of this morning.

Are you talking about this coming weekend Nov 15th & 16th or the following weekend with the second shot of cold air heading our way? this weekend looks mostly like light rain and low pops according to NWS as of this morning.




Venture can elaborate more on this. I was referring to the 500mb Euro maps from NOV 10 00z at 168 hours. (November 17-18ish)

FWIW, Tulsa NWS has snow for Saturday and Sunday this coming weekend. Low pops, but it's something....

2-3 more days, and there should start being some agreement for the weekend coming up.

I'll look at the Euro more tonight when I'm off work. Nothing on GFS to really be worried about.

Hard Freeze Warnings going out now to cover most of the state as we'll be well below freezing coming up. After this should be the end of any freeze advisories.

Impending temperature drop of up to 60F tonight in parts of the area. Oklahoma's weather never ceases to amaze me. Freedom, OK reached 87F and is forecast to reach 24F tonight. :)

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10150559_10152555685839200_3931585507659459394_n.j pg?oh=9fe055ba9116ca791950c1e167a3b805&oe=54F0799B&__gda__=1424550884_12707884dd598a75572495ba374e458 d

9448

Parallel GFS

12Z Parallel GFS

It will change, but fun to look at:)

9452

Yeah!! Lots of snow for us.

No bread and milk watches yet. :-P

No bread and milk watches yet. :-P

I went up to Wal Mart last night to pick up some cat food. The crowds were crazy. 15 minutes in the fast lane (Ha!) for a bag of cat chow.

I do have to go get milk tonight...BUT IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE WEATHER.

I just want some cereal. :-D

I am REALLY loving this new Parallel GFS! These totals are getting crazy!!:)

18Z Parellel GFS Snow Totals

9454

Manager at a grocery store here, people are already spooking, you see the elderly get out first which is what we're seeing tonight then about Thursday, Friday everyone will panic and the grocers association will send the local TV meteorologists a gift basket again for record sales. (I'm joking btw)

18Z GFS by Sunday morning...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/11/11/18/GFS_3_2014111118_F120_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

This gonna help our chances for a colder winter with this laying down snow north of us the first part of November?

This gonna help our chances for a colder winter with this laying down snow north of us the first part of November?

It definitely won't hurt.

Okay so here is the situation. We have a few runs in a row now on GFS hinting at snow for this weekend. Storm system will drop down through the panhandles. Some precip will move through Oklahoma with the system. By 6AM Sunday areas of light snow over NW OK. GFS spits out about dusting to a half inch. From 6AM to 9AM precip expands over much of WC, NW and into Central OK. Some moderate amounts of precip possible in West Central to near Kingfisher. This area could get 1-2" of snow, if this verifies. From 9AM through 12PM precip continues over much of the area areas but expands a bit more towards Tulsa. Could see another 1-2" of snow along I-40 from El Reno to Elk City. Up to an inch over most of the Metro area from Norman and to the north. From Noon through 3PM band of snow weakens quickly with maybe a dusting more over SW OK and up to an inch from OKC to the east - South of I-44 and north of I-40. The 00Z GFS keeps Oklahoma, nearly the entire state, below freezing for most of Sunday...OKC may only get up into the upper 20s that day.

We'll have to see.

Okay so here is the situation. We have a few runs in a row now on GFS hinting at snow for this weekend. Storm system will drop down through the panhandles. Some precip will move through Oklahoma with the system. By 6AM Sunday areas of light snow over NW OK. GFS spits out about dusting to a half inch. From 6AM to 9AM precip expands over much of WC, NW and into Central OK. Some moderate amounts of precip possible in West Central to near Kingfisher. This area could get 1-2" of snow, if this verifies. From 9AM through 12PM precip continues over much of the area areas but expands a bit more towards Tulsa. Could see another 1-2" of snow along I-40 from El Reno to Elk City. Up to an inch over most of the Metro area from Norman and to the north. From Noon through 3PM band of snow weakens quickly with maybe a dusting more over SW OK and up to an inch from OKC to the east - South of I-44 and north of I-40. The 00Z GFS keeps Oklahoma, nearly the entire state, below freezing for most of Sunday...OKC may only get up into the upper 20s that day.

We'll have to see.

Beat me to it. Not overly heavy on QPF like you said, but the GFS at least looks like a solid snow sounding, no doubt about it. (And no freezing rain - yay!)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2OAZ0GIAAAlQmK.png

Yup that is a perfect snow sounding right there. No threat of freezing rain or sleet with that type of setup. I've gone ahead and added some of the models to the wiki page here to show forecast snowfall for a set time period. The images will update when those specific model runs take place. The amounts show are totals for the entire time frame, whether it is over 144 hours or 18 hours (it is noted). Do not freak out about them though, just putting it there as a quick reference.

I am not buying the moisture for any meaningful snow yet. But it is interesting to see our first go at deep cold air may actually accompany winter precip. It usually takes until about the first week or two of December to get a shot @ this kind of action.

I aint even mad.

This morning's GFS seems even more widespread on the general 1-2" amounts on Sunday around the central part of the state.

This all falls as snow:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/11/12/12/GFS_3_2014111212_F120_PCPIN_24_HR.png

From Norman's latest forecast discussion:

A SECOND MORE POTENT
STORM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ON THE HEELS OF A
SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...A DEEP
COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE PLAINS. AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
INCREASES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ONE OR MORE BANDS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY PICK UP AN INCH OR MORE OF
SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
ROADS IN SOME AREAS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full2.jpg

To get an idea of how freaky cold today is for time of year, all through Jan. 2013 the coldest high was 32 at my station. Today the high was 30.

06Z GFS dried up a good amount bringing in only about a dusting to an inch over West Central and parts of SW OK for Sunday. We'll see how things look on the other models are we get closer.

NAM starting to pick up on the band of snow that will develop ahead of system, either in N OK or S KS. GEM is also coming on board.

Moisture looks low at this time, so amounts are low, but the track of the system is intriguing to me still. If the system can get more wrapped up and bring some of that moisture to the SE back into it, we could get a decent storm out of this.

GFS and NAM leaning towards a swath of up to 4-6 inches with the initial band in S KS. With most of OK receiving a dusting, like Venture mentioned.

How long is the cold going to stay around? Are we in for a long winter of these low temps?

This Saturday we will warm ahead of the storm system, but it won't last long. We go back below freezing that night and slow rebound begins again.

Looks like Wednesday/Thursday next week is when we will get back around "normal" temperatures.

This Saturday we will warm ahead of the storm system, but it won't last long. We go back below freezing that night and slow rebound begins again.

Looks like Wednesday/Thursday next week is when we will get back around "normal" temperatures.

I thought there was more cold air coming in in for next Wednesday time frame with a better shot at wintery precip??

Fun fact from Harold Brooks (@hebrooks87) via Twitter: "11/12/14 max temp at Wiley Post Airport Barrow, AK higher (31) than Wiley Post OKC (29)"

All models are almost entirely dry for OK. Dusting at best as it looks right now.