Well...the 12Z models have gone much...snowier...compared to the earlier run this morning. You can see the snowfall output at the top of the page.

GFS has been the most consistent for, except for a few bumps here and there as it was struggling with moisture.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-nov/14-gfs.PNG

NAM came in with a ton more moisture, so take this with a few buckets of salt.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-nov/14-nam.PNG

Damnit. I swear everytime I post an update, the opposite occurs on the next run.

How about I just let you guys know the forecast for Sunday, on Monday.

Well...the 12Z models have gone much...snowier...compared to the earlier run this morning. You can see the snowfall output at the top of the page.

12Z Euro is pretty wet for the northern half of OK. In terms of 3h QPF...

http://oi61.tinypic.com/2yvm0ev.jpg

NWS has raised totals slightly across the northern half of the state:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full7.jpg

For you fellas examining the models, can you see what I should expect in the tree stand on Sunday in Missouri? Specifically McDonald County which is the southern and western most county in the state bordering Oklahoma and Arkansas? Thanks!

For you fellas examining the models, can you see what I should expect in the tree stand on Sunday in Missouri? Specifically McDonald County which is the southern and western most county in the state bordering Oklahoma and Arkansas? Thanks!

Looks like a couple inches up there at this point.

00Z models still having a pretty broad area of at least an inch over much of the state (except SE).

06Z Model Update...

Models are pretty well in agreement now of the main snow area, roughly from Altus to Norman to Tulsa. Areas south of that line will see an inch or less in most cases - if that much. North of the line is where things diverge on amounts a bit. GFS remains the most conservative at this point with general 1-2" of snow up to the KS border. NAM continues to pull in more moisture with much higher snow totals. I'm not really siding with these even though NAM has been consistent on these higher numbers for a few runs now.

Here is the NAM output...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-nov/15-1nam.png

The 00Z Euro is mostly inline with placement as well but is only putting out roughly 1-2" over NW and NE OK. However, it is also showing precip over areas south of there but it typically doesn't put out a snowfall product unless there is at least a tenth of an inch of precip - at least the Wunderground version.

At this point, count on snow for Sunday. How much? Around an inch, but we'll see how it the next couple of runs handle things.

OUN adjusting amounts up slightly...this will probably fall into Winter Wx Advisory criteria for Oklahoma. Expect those headlines to come out with the afternoon update.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10423798_841016385919290_3091479907372785386_n.png ?oh=f5473206719dc2bfd7e181cc59d4c8a0&oe=54E8186D&__gda__=1423986660_63145464092195c842e10ff9a585072 8

Probability of 1" of snow falling by 6AM Monday from the Weather Prediction Center:

http://oi62.tinypic.com/2upy2jq.jpg

And for those who are curious, the SREF means have the following (with a fair amount of spread, mostly some high outliers):

Chickasha: 1.1"
Norman: 1.2"
OKC: 1.6"
Guthrie: 2.8" (with spreads of 0.5" to over 6")
Stillwater: 3.4"
Watonga: 2.8"
Shawnee: 1.1"

And for those who are curious, the SREF means have the following (with a fair amount of spread, mostly some high outliers):

Chickasha: 1.1"
Norman: 1.2"
OKC: 1.6"
Guthrie: 2.8" (with spreads of 0.5" to over 6")
Stillwater: 3.4"
Watonga: 2.8"
Shawnee: 1.1"

What about the Tulsa area?

Winter weather advisories up for counties along and north of I 40.

Latest forecast has totals upped even more north of the city:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full7.jpg

Latest SREF means, just for S&Gs (including the Tulsa area :) ):

Norman: 1.4"
OKC: 1.7"
Guthrie: 3.3"
Stillwater: 4.2"
Enid: 5.6" (with one group of models clustered around 8-10" and one around 2-4")
Tulsa: 2.6"

I believe the SREFs are run off the NAM which has been going pretty heavy north and west of OKC so it may be slightly biased toward that, but overall disregarding the highest end of the forecasts N & W of the city they fall pretty much in line with the NWS's forecast.

i6zaVYWLTkU

KFOR is saying that OKC could get up to 4 inches of snow tomorrow.I thought the ground is warm so it will help melt some of the snow once it hits the ground

KFOR is saying that OKC could get up to 4 inches of snow tomorrow.I thought the ground is warm so it will help melt some of the snow once it hits the ground

Good for them. I've yet to see one model in all of this back that up, but whatever helps Morgan sleep at night. :-D

The snowfall models are in the top post.

I guess they are adding up the totals.

2 inch north + 1.5 inch central + half inch south. FOAR INTCHES OF SNAU

Good for them. I've yet to see one model in all of this back that up, but whatever helps Morgan sleep at night. :-D

The snowfall models are in the top post.hey man, don't you question Mike Morgan's practices ok... he can make highways fill up with cars. This guy is the real deal! ;)

Good for them. I've yet to see one model in all of this back that up, but whatever helps Morgan sleep at night. :-D

The snowfall models are in the top post.

Mike Morgan wasn't on tonight. LOL

I didn't watch the late weather on KFOR but unless they had a sudden change this was the forecast as of about 9:45PM. I think Aaron Brackett was on tonight and on their website he was predicting 1 - 2 inches in OKC but mentioned possible higher amounts of 3 - 4 inches in northern Oklahoma. It's so funny how some people can't wait to jump on Mike Morgan even when he is nowhere near the TV station and supposed predictions for OKC never happened.

Tonight NAM is dryer, GFS is wetter.

Looks like just N of I-44 corridor is money zone.

Mike Morgan wasn't on tonight. LOL

I didn't watch the late weather on KFOR but unless they had a sudden change this was the forecast as of about 9:45PM. I think Aaron Brackett was on tonight and on their website he was predicting 1 - 2 inches in OKC but mentioned possible higher amounts of 3 - 4 inches in northern Oklahoma. It's so funny how some people can't wait to jump on Mike Morgan even when he is nowhere near the TV station and supposed predictions for OKC never happened.

Chief met is still involved with forecasts even if they aren't on the air, because they know it will always come back to them. They don't really get days off.

Tonight NAM is dryer, GFS is wetter.

Looks like just N of I-44 corridor is money zone.

Yeah it is going to be interesting to see how things verify with the NAM going pretty dry right about at I-44. Whereas the GFS take 1-3" of snow well south of that line.

Chief met is still involved with forecasts even if they aren't on the air, because they know it will always come back to them. They don't really get days off.

Which makes little difference in this case since what Tydude said didn't happen. As I said, people are always too willing to jump on, even if it's hearsay information.

I don't know how long this stays up but here is Aaron saying exactly what I said.

http://kfor.com/weather/#ooid=BvY2RxcToYmfZpeUDcROcomRX2rG2moJ

06Z HRRR has the following Snowfall forecast through 3PM and the 06Z NAM with total precip through 9PM. One interesting part of the NAM is that by mid to late afternoon, it reintensifies a band of snow just south of I-44/40 in the Seminole-Norman area. We'll have to watch and see because GFS has been keeping more moisture further south. If this happens, we could see a quick burst of 1-2 inches of snow in that area. NAM is dried now over North Central into Northeast OK. One thing we need to watch is the storm development on the Gulf coast which can impact the moisture the system will have to play with here.

No major changes to anything right now, but we need to see how the short term models keep evolving. The 06Z RAP is below as well and lines up pretty good with everything else. I will point out that the 07Z HRRR which is running right now, is showing a pretty intense band starting by 6AM over the northern 3 counties of the Metro area. By 8AM the band is well establishing running from Clinton - Kingfisher - Bartlesville. Don't be shocked to see 2-4" out of this line, if this actually sets up as the model is hinting at. Accumulating snow in Oklahoma City proper should start by 8-9AM.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014111606/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

06Z NAM Total Precip

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/06/SGP/namSGP_prec_precacc_021.gif

06Z RAP
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/06/SGP/rapSGP_prec_precacc_018.gif

07Z HRRR showing banding setting up.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/07/OKC/hrrrOKC_prec_radar_008.gif

So you're agreeing with KFOR now? Mike will be pleased even if he is in bed since he's responsible.

so you're agreeing with kfor now? Mike will be pleased even if he is in bed since he's responsible.

Just report what the models are actually showing as they come in. Any further discussion of the media needs to go here: http://www.okctalk.com/showwiki.php?title=Island:36970

03Z SREF - Total snowfall between 6AM and 6PM.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/SREF/03/SGP/srefSGP_prec_snowmn12_021.gif

Snow echos coming up in NW and WC OK right now. Should start to see atmosphere moisten up over the next few hours heading into sunrise. All about the bands baby!

Snow echos coming up in NW and WC OK right now. Should start to see atmosphere moisten up over the next few hours heading into sunrise. All about the bands baby!

Indeed! Alva to Fairview, Taloga, and Arapaho...that area starting to show hints of snow flying above the surface. Just a matter of time.

Couple of flakes in the air in NW OKC.

So far NW OK has about 2-3 inches reported. Over Central OK snow reported roughly NW of I-44 with some sleet mixed in. SE of I-44 mainly freezing drizzle with a few flakes here and there.

Heaviest band right now is from Osage County SW to near Perry to Kingfisher.

Winter Wx Advisory extended South.

GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-STEPHENS-
GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-KNOX-BAYLOR-
ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...
SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...
SULPHUR...ADA...WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...MARI ETTA...MUNDAY...
KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...
HENRIETTA
1005 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2014


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.


* EVENT: WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON
BRIDGES AND WALKWAYS. OF GREATEST CONCERN IS THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


* TIMING: THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST SNOW TOTALS ONE INCH OR LESS. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF OR END COMPLETELY BY EVENING.


* MAIN IMPACT: ROADS...BRIDGES...SIDEWALKS...AND PARKING LOTS IN
THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

Snowing in downtown right now

Looks like band from north of Lawton to south OKC is coming up in intensity a bit.

It's snowing?

Dang. Usually I realize when I have entered total hermit mode.
Be safe warm and dry folks.

Strongest area of precip right now is over Norman and south Moore. Still not seeing a lot accumulate...maybe a quarter inch here at this time.

Looks like the main low is going to take perfect track across WC into C OK and shove northeast. Just a matter of it holding together.

Next storm the weekend of 11/21-22 looks too warm for snow right now. Maybe some thunderstorms and then a cold rain with another one possibly midweek before Thanksgiving.

We are getting a light snow right now in Duncan, Oklahoma. Not much is sticking.

Occasional wind gusts blow some snow off the roof of the house.

I was hoping for more snow than we are going to get. I don't mind snow, but I sure don't want any ice.

NWS just extended the weather advisory until 9PM for central OK.

HRRR for the rest of the evening... another 1-2" possible for Norman and south. Probably another inch over OKC if this snow band continues to park itself over I-40.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2014111620/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

So did it actually turn out that those of us south of I40 actually got it worse?

Still coming down pretty good in south Norman.

So did it actually turn out that those of us south of I40 actually got it worse?

Yeah the main band setup right over the area and that can always enhance snow totals. The main push is coming now with the band sitting over Norman and will keep moving SE.

3.5" on the east side of Moore. Hearing 4.5" from our forecasters at our office on the OU research campus.

Yeah sounds like Norman is a general 3-5 inches.

Looking forward, warming continues tomorrow heading into weekend, then a shot at some rain comes in sat/sun. Best chance of rain looks like eastern OK.

After that we get cold again for a few more days and we rebound temps again until the next storm.

This cycle looks to be on repeat at least through the first week of December.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full7.jpg

Any information on this system coming in the day or two after Thanksgiving that people are already hinting at like it will be a winter type system??

Best bet for that forecast is 2 days out because the models will toss back and forth 15,000 times between now and then.

Best bet for that forecast is 2 days out because the models will toss back and forth 15,000 times between now and then.

Yep.

A 10-day forecast I saw showed 54 for Thanksgiving and 32 for Black Friday... but it's a 10-day, so it's a very general guidance at this point.

^What those guys said^

But I will still take a stab at it based upon GFS long-range. Trying to spot the next storm after this weekend, I am looking at the first few days of December. Notably the 2nd right now. Now I am not sure if it will be liquid or frozen, but something appears to occur around then.

As it stands, Thanksgiving looks just fine.

What are the models reading for tomorrow's rain in the metro? Channel 9 has it at 80% chance, Channel 4 says "50%" chance, KOCO is stating Thunderstorms beginning tonight and into tomorrow. I haven't been to Fox. I'd just like to see where things stand on the law of averages since my workplace has an outside event tomorrow.

What are the models reading for tomorrow's rain in the metro? Channel 9 has it at 80% chance, Channel 4 says "50%" chance, KOCO is stating Thunderstorms beginning tonight and into tomorrow. I haven't been to Fox. I'd just like to see where things stand on the law of averages since my workplace has an outside event tomorrow.

Raining increasing through the afternoon. Could be heavy especially over the SE metro area.

How about for the OU game? Thanks.

How much rain is SW and Western OK getting today? Is it enough to help fill (at least a little) the lakes, especially Lake Altus and Tom Steed?

Any rain down there is helpful. However, I can't imagine this one pass of rain would be anywhere near enough to overcome what they have been dealing with down there for a period which runs several years.

How about for the OU game? Thanks.

presently delayed to 12:30 at the earliest. The delay might well run longer.

No, but I was hoping this rain might be a 2+ and have some measurable runoff into the lakes. SW OK has had a nice stream of small showers this year, but none big enough to cause much runoff. They need a series of big gully washers, so was hoping this might be the first in a very long time to raise the water levels a little.

This rains been great, we've picked up at least 2 inches at the home in Harrah and looking at the radar even more is coming.