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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1794.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN OK / SERN KS / SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021500Z - 021730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS MORNING.
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT IN THE FORM
OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS IS ANTICIPATED. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH THIS
FEATURE FORECAST OVER CNTRL OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL FOSTER A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND THE TRANSITION FROM SUB-SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE MID-MORNING TO ISOLD SEVERE BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. VEERING AND STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT PER
KTLX/KINX/KSRX VAD DATA WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND SMALL SCALE BOWS. THE INITIAL ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON-LINEAR AND POSE PRIMARILY AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL
RISK AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED.
MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH A
COALESCING OF STORMS INTO A LINEAR CONFIGURATION ALONG THE FRONT
WITH TIME BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 10/02/2014


ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...

I was looking at the long range GFS models this morning and it shows a potentially significant system coming through the southern plains Friday-Sunday 10/10-12. Something to watch since it's OU/TX weekend.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0516_radar.gif

Stillwater got some rain and thunder early this morning, provided you lived on the right side of town. I got .14", while the far west and north sides got zero. The Tulsa area from strong storms this afternoon has gotten over an inch.

GFS still bringing tropical system Simon up from the Baja and into the southern plains around the 9th-10th time frame. However, we all know what happened last time it looked like a system like this was going to pay us a visit.

Right now it appears to be decently significant in the forecast. As it stands right now, we will have the moisture and heat in place to not only produce heavy tropical rainfalls, but maybe some non-traditional severe weather.

Not sure where to put this, but DFW got SLAMMED last night with storms. Quite a bit of wind damage in Arlington and NE Dallas. At one point there was about 200K people without power, including yours truly. Between this and the whole ebola outbreak, God is clearly upset with someone here LOL.

I was surprised how flat footed some of the meterologists were before these hit. Most channels predicted 30% or less chance of rain, much less a high-wind/squall line type event.

Not sure where to put this, but DFW got SLAMMED last night with storms. Quite a bit of wind damage in Arlington and NE Dallas. At one point there was about 200K people without power, including yours truly. Between this and the whole ebola outbreak, God is clearly upset with someone here LOL.

I was surprised how flat footed some of the meterologists were before these hit. Most channels predicted 30% or less chance of rain, much less a high-wind/squall line type event.

Was Rick Mitchell one of them?

Not sure where to put this, but DFW got SLAMMED last night with storms. Quite a bit of wind damage in Arlington and NE Dallas. At one point there was about 200K people without power, including yours truly. Between this and the whole ebola outbreak, God is clearly upset with someone here LOL.

I was surprised how flat footed some of the meterologists were before these hit. Most channels predicted 30% or less chance of rain, much less a high-wind/squall line type event.

From NBC DFW: https://twitter.com/NBCDFWWeather/status/517703093895454721

"#Severe storms possible this afternoon. 4-6pm for #DFW. 6-8pm east. Large hail/damaging winds are primary threats." Can't tell exact time they sent that Tweet... but they sent it.

Rick Mitchell sent this tweet earlier in the day: "Dust the rust off of your svr wx procedures, you'll need them today. Strong to svr storms this aft/eve. RM #dfwwx"

https://twitter.com/RickMitchellWX/status/517676338426417152

When you don't live in tornado alley, you aren't near as weather aware so severe weather can hit you by surprise. It happened to me a few times when living in other places. OKC is lucky to have such in depth weather coverage. Nowhere else has the kind of coverage they have here. The downside is the hype on the news stations here can create severe weather anxiety especially if you aren't used to it.

They were also obviously under a SVR Watch last night until 9pm. Local meteorologists are pretty pointless if you just pay attention to the SPC and your local area NWS office.

From NBC DFW: https://twitter.com/NBCDFWWeather/status/517703093895454721

"#Severe storms possible this afternoon. 4-6pm for #DFW. 6-8pm east. Large hail/damaging winds are primary threats." Can't tell exact time they sent that Tweet... but they sent it.

Rick Mitchell sent this tweet earlier in the day: "Dust the rust off of your svr wx procedures, you'll need them today. Strong to svr storms this aft/eve. RM #dfwwx"

https://twitter.com/RickMitchellWX/status/517676338426417152

I guess I need to change weather guys. Rick Mitchell is always spot on but the NBC affilate he is on tends to be more Ft Worth-centric so I don't watch as often.

The dudes on the ABC and Fox stations down here are worthless. From what I saw streaming off my phone the guy on ABC admitted they underestimated things. OKC is blessed to have much better meteorologists.

All dependent on Hurricane Simon in the Pacific moving up over us this coming Thursday.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_precacc_171.gif

All dependent on Hurricane Simon in the Pacific moving up over us this coming Thursday.


But hurricanes originating in the Pacific are supposed to be called typhoons, not hurricanes. Do you have good reason to relate as to why it is wrong to call Simon a typhoon?

But hurricanes originating in the Pacific are supposed to be called typhoons, not hurricanes. Do you have good reason to relate as to why it is wrong to call Simon a typhoon?

They are only called typhoons in the western Pacific.

http://www.wnct.com/story/23912318/typhoon-vs-hurricane-whats-the-difference


In the Atlantic Basin, tropical systems with sustained winds of 74 MPH or higher are called hurricanes. It's the same for storms in the eastern Pacific Ocean. However, in the northwestern Pacific Ocean (west of the International Date Line), a system with the same type of tropical characteristics is not called a hurricane. It's called a typhoon.

But hurricanes originating in the Pacific are supposed to be called typhoons, not hurricanes. Do you have good reason to relate as to why it is wrong to call Simon a typhoon?

It is a "hurricane" in the Atlantic, Eastern and Central Pacific. Western Pacific is a Tyhpoon as LJ points out. Indian Ocean they are Cyclones.

You guys who haven't done it when you hear about another state having severe weather look up their news station web site. They usually they have a streaming video solution, and just watch their severe storm coverage for a while. It amazes me how low tech they are. Even Arkansas which sees a good amount of severe weather, I was watching a station there earlier this year and they were in a tornado warning and the only way they knew there was a tornado was the radar indicated rotation and a local police officer had called in that there were powerlines down on one of his patrol routes. The entire hour long stream was just one guy standing in front of a radar on a TV tracking the storm. There were no chasers with live video, no one like Val to throw to, no helicopters, nothing. I felt terrible because the people in the path only knew that a bad storm with the potential for a tornado was coming for them. Here we generally know what corner of the street a tornado is on!

I'm so thankful for our meteorologists and technology and the NWS being here. It definitely makes me feel much better living in a state with severe weather potential.

Yup. It is amazing how the local media covers storms here. Severe storms approaching C OK is like police chases in LA. Everyone wants to watch.

By the way, there is a fast moving line of storms moving into OKC metro right now.

One of the storms out along I-40 is looking interesting, it is currently severe. Large hail right now, but it is rotating. This storm is headed towards Hinton, right now.

Here is the line of severe storms Anon is talking about...

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-oct/5-1.png

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1107 pm cdt sun oct 5 2014


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northwestern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Southwestern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern grady county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...


* until 1145 pm cdt


* at 1107 pm cdt...severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles northwest of the village to near oklahoma
city to 5 miles southwest of piedmont...moving southeast at 35 mph.


Hazard...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.


Source...trained weather spotters.

You guys who haven't done it when you hear about another state having severe weather look up their news station web site... ...I felt terrible because the people in the path only knew that a bad storm with the potential for a tornado was coming for them. Here we generally know what corner of the street a tornado is on!

I'm so thankful for our meteorologists and technology and the NWS being here. It definitely makes me feel much better living in a state with severe weather potential.

Try actually being in their market with severe weather going down, and being accustomed to our own coverage. A couple of times I have been in Arkansas and Missouri during severe weather outbreaks, and flying blind via their inadequate coverage is no bueno.

I see a lot of out-of-state and even international visitors during severe weather season in OKC, and I'm alternately horrified and tickled at their reactions when - for instance - the sirens go off. They are all convinced death is imminent, and have to be talked off of the ledge. I always try to grab a few and take them to a TV showing a live broadcast and then explain what is happening using the radar maps shown, the updates from chasers, etc. I'll try to explain when a storm is moving through Piedmont tracking NE, for instance, that there is zero threat to downtown OKC. Sometimes it works; sometimes they are still inconsolable.

But the first time I was ever in another market and saw the crappy forecasting/chasing that they live with was the first time I ever really understood what it was like to be one of those visitors to OKC who have absolutely no clue what's going on when severe weather is going down. No thank you.

Rain this week looks up in the air. NAM is keeping up pretty dry through Thursday, while the GFS still wants to bring some moisture in. GFS though keeps most of the moisture with Simon well north, but brings it in with a front on Friday. Some lingering stuff on Saturday and then drying out. Next front for the following Tuesday the 14th, but right now looks dry for Central and West. One side note with that, is around the same period GFS has really focused on bringing a strong tropical system into Florida on the 15th. That front could be a major player in determining where that system goes...if it forms.

Rain this week looks up in the air.

uhhmm....until it hits the ground, isn't that always the case, Ven? :D :D :D :D :D

Sorry, read that and couldn't resist the friendly jab :D

Just please keep the drive to Dallas this Friday afternoon sane for me :)

uhhmm....until it hits the ground, isn't that always the case, Ven? :D :D :D :D :D

Sorry, read that and couldn't resist the friendly jab :D

Just please keep the drive to Dallas this Friday afternoon sane for me :)

LOL of course. As soon as I typed that I knew I was setting myself up...but I left it anyway. :D

Latest GFS still brings us some rain, most east and into AR. However, it has the timing of the front much slower, thus potentially leaving the rain in the forecast. Also this means the potential hurrican in the GOM would not be pulled off to the NE and instead has it becoming a strong hurricane in the Gulf and wandering westerly into TX.

Last night in Stillwater it rained enough to wet down the streets and sidewalks, but not enough to trip the rain bucket, except at the airport, where it rained .01".

Anon/Venture

Looks like the local mets are in general agreement that this weekend is going to be a rainmaker, starting late Thursday and going into most of the weekend. I did note that one of the models was at least hinting at a chance the rain might be pushed farther east?

Just wondering if OU-Texas is going to be a complete washout both Friday on the way down and during the day Sat...maybe even Sun on the way home :(

Models want to crank things up further west this morning. Bringing heavier rain totals more into the C parts of OK. Eastern OK and into AR is still by far the winners.

OU-TX looks like a washout on the way down Friday. However, there is a chance you will be out of the rain by the time you get into N TX. The Dallas area is on the fringe of the development, so the game may be dry - it will be easier to tell closer to Friday.

Models want to crank things up further west this morning. Bringing heavier rain totals more into the C parts of OK. Eastern OK and into AR is still by far the winners.

OU-TX looks like a washout on the way down Friday. However, there is a chance you will be out of the rain by the time you get into N TX. The Dallas area is on the fringe of the development, so the game may be dry - it will be easier to tell closer to Friday.

I guess I can handle some rain down Friday, although it makes the Bevo Bash in Marietta a bit problematic. You think we're just talking a general rain, or the hard stuff that makes driving difficult? heck, if the stinking game weren't at 11 in the STINKING morning I might just drive down SAT AM, but then driving in the dark during a hard rain isn't so fun, either.

RATS RATS RATS. I know we need the rain, don't get me wrong, but...RATS.

Hey guys...just to keep this thread interesting :)

I've all-but resigned myself to a soggy drive to Dallas Friday, and maybe even a soggy game Saturday.

My bigger question now is what kind of rain to expect Friday. Are we talking day-long semi-tropical frog strangler that makes driving a white-knuckler, or just a general, daylong soaker? And do we have any idea about what time? Just thinking about I-35 being a duck pond Friday afternoon...and wishing I could get out of town earlier than noon, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen :(

NAM and GFS aren't really in agreement with how things will go. NAM keeps Friday dryish with isolated rain around and then a front pushing through with a line of storms...moving into Central TX early Saturday. GFS is slow, but still has it out of Dallas by kick off.

Side note...I don't think Dan Rather could have done a better job with the wording of your post Dave. :)

GFS and NAM coming to some degree of agreeance. However, NAM keeps main boyd of OK drier and slams northeast parts. GFS puts a bulk of rain in NE OK and then another in S OK into N TX.

OU-TX is looking like a complete washout.

GFS bring another round of heavy rains late Sunday mostly over E 2/3 of OK. Then shoves the system off.


Next 5 days projections:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1412860190

Curious as to what happens in the Guymon area of the panhandle tomorrow afternoon through evening/night hours. Have to travel there for high school football game.

NAM and GFS aren't really in agreement with how things will go. NAM keeps Friday dryish with isolated rain around and then a front pushing through with a line of storms...moving into Central TX early Saturday. GFS is slow, but still has it out of Dallas by kick off.

Side note...I don't think Dan Rather could have done a better job with the wording of your post Dave. :)

LOL Thanx ven :)

Keep an eye on Sunday. The 12Z GFS is showing we could have a pretty big severe weather day...NAM isn't nearly as aggressive, but does build instability. It is also at the very end of its forecast window so it might change over the next few runs.

Overall rainfall...NAM keeps heaviest north, pushing quick line of storms through. GFS has more widespread rain with an inch or two through Saturday.

Day 4-8 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0312 am cdt thu oct 09 2014

valid 121200z - 171200z

...discussion...
Models have come into better agreement showing a strong upper trough
developing across the rockies and into the plains on sun/d4 with
surface low over the tx panhandle at 00z. This low is forecast to
develop ewd along the red river with a strong cold front from ern ok
into cntrl tx by 12z mon/d5. Moisture is likely to rapidly surge nwd
in advance of this front sun/d5 evening with maximum instability
realized overnight across ok. That said...the gfs appears to be a
bit fast with the magnitude of the moisture return.

Although storms will form monday evening across ok then spread sewd
into nrn tx...wrn ar and srn mo overnight...the strong linear
forcing as well as unfavorable time of day would suggest that
potential may be too low for a day 4 area meeting 30 percent minimal
threshold.

By mon/d5...the upper trough amplifies further...with flow aloft
becoming more meridional/sswly. Plenty of moisture will be present
along the cold front as it continues ewd to an illinois to e tx line
by monday evening. Strong linear forcing suggests a squall line is
most likely...with a threat of damaging winds perhaps with embedded
mesocyclones or an isolated tornado.

That said...will hold off on introducing a 30 percent severe area
for several reasons.

First...models only recently came into better agreement with little
history of run-to-run consistency.

Second...subtle differences regarding the surface low forecast and
upper trough geometry remain problematic with the gfs suggesting
better low-level turning of the winds with height across the lower
ms valley and the ecmwf showing the surface low over illinois. A
stronger surface low solution would support more of a tornado
threat.

Third...the sharpness of the surface trough in conjunction with flow
aloft parallel to the boundary suggest some of this activity may
become post-frontal and/or slightly elevated as the front outruns
new development. If this occurs...it would limit severe coverage to
perhaps closer to 15 percent/minimal slight coverage.

Severe probabilities are likely to increase in later outlooks as the
event nears.

Hey guys...just to keep this thread interesting :)

I've all-but resigned myself to a soggy drive to Dallas Friday, and maybe even a soggy game Saturday.

My bigger question now is what kind of rain to expect Friday. Are we talking day-long semi-tropical frog strangler that makes driving a white-knuckler, or just a general, daylong soaker? And do we have any idea about what time? Just thinking about I-35 being a duck pond Friday afternoon...and wishing I could get out of town earlier than noon, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen :(

What's wrong with driving in the rain? Do you need new wiper blades?

:)

Slight Risk added today for NW OK...

...NM/TX/OK/KS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
STATES. A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
EASTWARD INTO MO WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP MAINTAIN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...WHERE BROKEN CLOUDS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS STATES BY EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
NM BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS SPREADING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES FOR
SUPERCELL/BOW STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL TRACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MARGINAL RISK OF
HAIL/WIND.

What's wrong with driving in the rain? Do you need new wiper blades?

:)

LOL no. I think I'm permanently spooked by a driving incident from when I first took my family to Florida in 2001. We'd had a beautiful drive through the SE US, and really had no adverse weather at all...until we reached Florida, where the remnants of a disorganized tropical storm were wending their way along the western Florida coast northerly toward the panhandle. Amid this, it was shooting off little radial bands of thunderstorms around the northern third of the state, just as we were driving through.

We drove in and out of no-big-deal rain for a brief time, and then, with virtually no warning, came this torrential, and I mean never-seen-anything-like-it kind of frog-strangling (heck, this stuff would strangle the handsome prince, too) can't-even-see-the-hood-ornament-on-my-own-freaking-CAR kind of tropical deathwash, that surely would have brought grins to the Emperor as a weapon to mass-drown Ewoks. I was simultaneously terrified I would plow into the back of someone ahead of me that I physically could not see, yet too terrified to stop for fear someone behind me would plow into us - all while realizing the rain was too intense to see clearly even to change lanes. Fortunately, the other drivers had the good sense to turn on their blinkers and I got my eyes to train roughly on where the light would pierce the fog of the torrent.

After what amounted to maybe five or ten minutes, but felt more like 3,441 hours, we made it through the squall and emerged to sunshine. I wouldn't even begin to calculate my heart rate. I'm sure my blood pressure, had it been taken at the time, would have had white caps. The adrenaline rush was so intense that I didn't realize my hands were so tightly wrapped on the steering wheel that they actually started hurting, and at that point I told my wife, "I've got to get off the road and decompress a little." We pulled off into a restaurant off the interstate, had a ridiculously large slice of some kind of pie, and after about a half-hour, were back on our way.

I don't never ever wanna drive thru nuttin' like that never 'gin. And I've been to Florida four times since, and never encountered anything remotely like it.

So, yeah, I'm a little snakebit on the big rains on the hiway. :)

What's wrong with driving in the rain? Do you need new wiper blades?

:)

The last thing anyone needs on the way down to TX is slick roads the way everyone tailgates.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1839.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 PM CDT THU OCT 09 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...ERN OK PANHANDLE...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0524.html)...

VALID 100334Z - 100500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 524 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULE OUT. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD AFFECT THE TX PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF WRN OK TO SRN KS
BUT THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME. NEW WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS WW 524 WITH THE FIRST LOCATED IN HEMPHILL AND WHEELER
COUNTIES OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS LINE SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EWD INTO WRN OK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE BUT SUGGESTS THAT
INSTABILITY WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE OK STATE-LINE.
ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE
THREAT...THE WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND
OF CELL INTENSITY AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO WRN OK.

A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS IS LOCATED OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE.
THESE CELLS ARE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WHERE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK. THE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN AIRMASS WITH BETTER QUALITY
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A SFC DEWPOINT AT DALHART OF 58 F AND AT
BORGER OF 60 F. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPORY...MAY HELP MAINTAIN
CELL INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THE WSR-88D VWP AT AMARILLO
STILL SHOWS A FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION WITH 0-3
STORM RELATIVELY HELICITY AROUND 230 M2/S2. AS THE CELLS MOVE
ESEWD...THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ENABLE A BRIEF TORNADO TO FORM.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR AS WELL BUT THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED TOWARD WATCH EXPIRATION.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 10/10/2014

Three stories in weather tonight...

1) On going severe wx over W OK and the TX PH. Some pretty big hail reports tonight and a few tornado warnings. First big shield of rain starting to move through the first western tier of counties. Another wave or two will be behind it. Expect these to continue and generally move ENE through the night.

2) NAM and GFS continue to be completely different in the handling of heavy rain for Friday & Saturday...

NAM
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_sfc_precacc_054.gif

GFS
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_precacc_054.gif

3) Finally the severe weather chances for Sunday. This is still evolving, but looks like we could get some noise around the state...

GFS Supercell Composite
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_072.gif

NAM Supercell Composite
http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_con_scp_072.gif

Slight Risk is out for Sunday for much of Oklahoma, except for the northern two tiers of counties.

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARK AREA...

RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER SRN TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AREA TO THE SOUTH OF A STALLED BUT WEAKENING FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE NWD SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LEE LOW AND
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL ADVECT EWD ABOVE THE RETURNING MOIST AXIS CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN WARM SECTOR FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN
ZONE OF DEEP FRONTAL ASCENT INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND NRN TX SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS
MAY BE HIGH BASED FROM SERN CO INTO WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GIVEN RELATIVELY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SWD THROUGH OK INTO NRN TX IT WILL INTERACT WITH RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES AND
CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO BE UNDERCUT BY
THE SEWD SURGING FRONT...BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM ERN OK INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
POSE A RISK FOR MAINLY HAIL.

..DIAL.. 10/10/2014

So is that it for OKC today rain-wise?

NE parts of OK are already over 5 inches of rain from last night.


Should see an increase in development across main body of state heading into this afternoon and evening. Severe risk highest in S OK.

Few small storms out west dropping some small hail at times. Nothing significant though.

What a big dud this has been for the metro.

Got a pretty quick thunderstorm Norman going on now. Shaking the windows with the thunder sounds.

Flooding around campus like usual....

Downpour at SW 119th and Western!

What a big dud this has been for the metro.

You being sarcastic?

You being sarcastic?

On the NW side except for a small bit of rain this morning and a tad more this afternoon it has been pretty much a dud.

On a thundery evening, time to look ahead to Sunday some.

Severe weather continues to be probable with a great chance of it being a nocturnal event for most of Oklahoma. Most of this initially is going to be based on the 00Z NAM since the GFS isn't in yet, we'll see if it is by the time I finish this initial part up.

Storm system will be dropping into OK from the NW and should kick storms off by late afternoon/early evening. From 7 to 10PM appears most storms will be in NW OK, the area will eventually spread to the east and south over Central OK by midnight. Initial line of storms should be moving out of the state by late morning. Some wrap around showers/storms are possible and I wouldn't be shocked if some small hail is with those.

Conditions right now appear to be favorable for severe weather overnight. Looking at more of a high wind threat with also a hail threat coming in second. Winds should be fairly linear with storms along the front coming through, so not looking for much of a tornado threat. Of course, things can change especially if speed shear is high enough.

I don't expect SPC to go above SLGT for Sunday however, but I'm sure Morgan and Payne will have dueling moderates or highs. LOL More tomorrow... (still no GFS)

On the NW side except for a small bit of rain this morning and a tad more this afternoon it has been pretty much a dud.

How? Forecasts said it wouldn't rain all day but would be spotty. All of the OKC and Norman mesonet stations received over an inch of rain, which is pretty much what was forecast. In convective situations of course some areas are going to receive a bit less rain which we can't forecast precisely... I'm really not sure what you were expecting, but this was exactly what was forecast.

How? Forecasts said it wouldn't rain all day but would be spotty. All of the OKC and Norman mesonet stations received over an inch of rain, which is pretty much what was forecast. In convective situations of course some areas are going to receive a bit less rain which we can't forecast precisely... I'm really not sure what you were expecting, but this was exactly what was forecast.

Duh, forecasts are obviously specific to his backyard only.

Not much change for today. Slight Risk out for nearly all of the state (west of Guymon not included). Storms will kick off later in the afternoon over the far NW sections. Storms will evolve along the front into a squall line/MCS that will dive SE over the state through the evening/overnight hours. Main threats continue to appears to be winds over 70 mph and some decent hail. Tornado threat will increase in generally the area bordered by I-44 to the north and I-35 to the west. Not a huge threat, but an embedded tornado in the line is quite possible.Everything should be out of hear early Monday morning.

Venture, when do you sleep? :)

Venture, when do you sleep? :)

When the cat lets me? LOL

Update for today...wind remains big threat, some large hail as well. Tornado threat is not zero but should be restricted to some embedded quick spin ups.

Timing appears to have storms enter the far west metro area around 10PM and clearing the eastern ends by 1AM.

Latest SPC thinking below...

TL;DR version... West of I-35 winds generally 45-60 mph with most storms, some gusts over 60. I-35 and east wind threat higher and also isolated tornado threat as line may start to fragment in a higher shear environment.

...KS/OK/TX WEST OF I35 THROUGH MIDNIGHT....
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT/WIND
SHIFT SHOULD LEAD TO SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT MASS ADJUSTMENTS OCCURRING
IMMEDIATELY ABOVE A WEAKLY DECOUPLED AND CAPPED SURFACE-LAYER.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS GREATER MOISTURE FLUX AND MUCAPE
ARE REALIZED WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER...LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE THAT SHOULD BE ADVANCING
EAST/SOUTHEAST AROUND 40KT PER MEAN WIND/BUNKERS MOTIONS. TURBULENT
MIXING AND PRECIPITATION LOADING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL NO DOUBT LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS...PERHAPS
EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA OF 50KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS. LATEST
INDICATIONS FROM STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE ARE THAT MOST CONVECTIVE WIND
GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE RANGE OF 40-50KT OVERNIGHT.

...OK/TX/AR EAST OF I35 THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...
EVENTUALLY STRONG FORCING AND A LARGER AND DEEPENING CONVECTIVE COLD
POOL MAY ACT ON A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT TRUE
SURFACE-BASED STORMS. THIS LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OK AND THE ARKLATEX DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.
BREAKS IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES
WILL POSE BOTH WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS DURING THIS
PHASE OF THE OVERALL LARGER SYSTEM/S EVOLUTION. A SEPARATE BAND OF
CONVECTION MAY ALSO EVOLVE IN INTENSIFYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS
CENTRAL TX LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET TO 60KT DURING THIS DEVELOPMENT...SHEAR AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1853.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLE...WRN OK...NW TX...EXTREME SW
KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 122009Z - 122145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INITIALLY ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL POSE A
RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 996 MB CYCLONE NEAR KLBL
WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED S THROUGH THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS TO THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY. SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE REMAIN LOW /GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S/ N OF THE TX BIG
COUNTRY SUPPORTING ONLY MEAGER BUOYANCY. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY STRONG FORCED ASCENT WILL
AID IN INITIALLY ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE BECOMING
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A PREDOMINANT WIND RISK LATER IN THE EVENING AS
A QLCS FORMS OVER WRN OK INTO NW TX.

..GRAMS/CARBIN.. 10/12/2014