With the new outlooks now in full steam, this is the first time we've been including in a risk area. Marginal Risk tomorrow...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1414369255372

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL OK...

...SUMMARY...
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN WI INTO WRN OK BY 00Z. SLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL BRING LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER
MO VALLEY...RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FRONT
FROM OK INTO LOWER MI.

...MUCH OF CNTRL OK...
A CAPPING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRODUCED OVER WRN OK
MAY PLAY A ROLE IN EVENING DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL AND
NERN OK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER WRN/SWRN OK WHERE THE CAP WILL BE
WEAKEST...THEN SPREADING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK DURING THE EVENING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A
FLUX OF NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS NWD TO THE FRONT RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ANY CELLS THAT CAN PROPAGATE EWD ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT OF HAIL...AND PERHAPS
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER N INTO MO...IA...AND IL...A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL
ALSO EXIST HERE...BUT WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL
REDUCE THE PROBABILITY OF STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL DURING THE
EVENING. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE EVENTUALLY EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO NOT CORROBORATE A
MARGINAL HAIL AREA.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1414390396170

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014


VALID 271200Z - 281200Z


...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND
VICINITY...


...SUMMARY...
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHER/NON-SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM AFTERNOON
ONWARD...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OKLAHOMA ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.


...SYNOPSIS...
AS A MID-LEVEL VORTEX DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO/ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY INVOF KS
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD/INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH TIME...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A
SUB-1000 MB LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER
OH/MID MS VALLEYS AND INTO AR/TX. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD.


...OK VICINITY...
WHILE THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED --
THUS SUPPRESSING SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE OK VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH AMPLE ELEVATED CAPE
EXPECTED...MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- ONE OR TWO POSSIBLY
BECOMING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE WEAKER WITH NEWD EXTENT...EXPECT ANY
SEVERE RISK TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OK VICINITY...MAINLY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.


..GOSS/DEAN.. 10/27/2014

Uh, how cold do you like your house? OKC has had plenty of evenings this month with temperatures in the low 50s and upper 40s... That's not to take away from how anomalous this heat is (our forecast is set to beat the record high by 3-5F, and is 20F+ above the average high) but never turning off your AC at night yet sounds a bit dramatic.
I never turn my A/C off. I keep it right at 62 degrees every night. I keep it off during the day usually unless I'm home and it's too hot. I like it cold when I sleep so I can bury myself under the blankets.

Looks like low chance of a latenight show developing right over SW to C OK tonight. These will likely blow right thru, per usual - consider yourself lucky to be hit with rain.

Here comes the official "It's now Fall in Oklahoma" front:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TAIR.grad.png

Numerous showers/storms on going from Central to NE OK north of I-44. Another line from Purcell back to the SW to near Frederick. Some small hail possible with a few.

Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement
Updated: Mon Oct-27-14 11:42pm CDT
Effective: Mon Oct-27-14 11:42pm CDT
Expires: Tue Oct-28-14 12:45am CDT

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Observed

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Lincoln; Logan; Oklahoma; Payne

Instructions: Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at this time.

Message summary: ...significant weather advisory for southeastern logan...northeastern oklahoma...northern lincoln and southeastern payne counties until 1245 am cdt...
At 1141 pm cdt...strong thunderstorms were located 6 miles east of meridian...moving east at 35 mph. Hazards include...
Hail up to pennies...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...
Locations impacted include...
Cushing...perkins...yale...carney...tryon...ripley ...agra...
Kendrick...meridian...avery and parkland.

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=TLX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.313&noclutter=0&t=1326398785&lat=36.10796738&lon=-97.07638550&label=Stillwater%2C+OK&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=393&centery=530&transx=-7&transy=290&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0

One inch hail reported around Luther with the cell moving into Weston and along the turnpike.

Meanwhile, Stillwater at best got .05.

Finally may get rid of some of these bugs...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-023>032-300430-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FZ.A.0002.141101T0800Z-141101T1500Z/
WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-
LOGAN-PAYNE-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY...WATONGA...KINGFIS HER...
GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...
OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...
SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE
325 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.


* TEMPERATURE: 28 TO 32 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...COLDEST OVER FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

* TIMING: APPROXIMATELY 3 AM TO 10 AM SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS: FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL KILL TENDER PLANTS. BE
PREPARED TO COVER OR BRING TENDER PLANTS INDOORS FRIDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS FREEZE WATCH MAY CHANGE IN COVERAGE OR BE ELEVATED TO A
FREEZE WARNING BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY. GO AHEAD AND THINK ABOUT
HOW YOU WILL PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS FROM THE COLD.

Looks like we may have a chance at some good rain early next week.

Finally may get rid of some of these bugs...



And the pollen producing plants.

Finally may get rid of some of these bugs...



And the pollen producing plants.

The freeze watch has turned into a freeze warning over generally the northeast quarter section of the state. So far, doesn't include the OKC metro area.

Freeze warning tonight for the entire state except the Panhandle.

http://www.okctalk.com/showwiki.php?title=Island:39384 - November thread up.

nm.:o