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Current Conditions

Air TemperatureDewpointWindsRainfall Last 24 Hourshttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TAIR.grad.png (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/air_temperature/air_temperature)http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/dewpoint/dewpoint_humidity)http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.gustbarbs.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_speed_gusts_with_barbs/wind)http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.24hr.png (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/24_hr_rainfall_accumulation/rainfall)
Advisory TableNWS Norman Warning AreaNWS Tulsa Warning Area

[*=left]Tornado Warning
[*=left]Tornado Watch
[*=left]Severe T-Storm Warning
[*=left]Severe T-Storm Watch
[*=left]Blizzard Warning
[*=left]Blizzard Watch
[*=left]Winter Storm Warning
[*=left]Winter Storm Watch
[*=left]Ice Storm Warning
[*=left]Red Flag Warning
[*=left]Winter Weather Advisory
[*=left]Wind Chill Advisory
[*=left]Wind Chill Warning
[*=left]Freezing Rain Advisory

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service (http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php)

Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma
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Severe Weather Outlooks & Products

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SPC Watches

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/validww.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)http://images.blitzortung.org/Images/image_b_tx.png


Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time. Lightning image is © Blitzortung.org. Mesonet maps are all © of the Oklahoma Mesonet / OU Board of Regents.

New thread is up early this time! Woohoo!

A few changes have been made to the original article post at the top. The format is cleaned up a bit to take advantage of the new theme Pete is using for the site. I also added some new items to try to offer a better array of information that is readily available. From the OK Mesonet site are the maps for current conditions, then the typical warning maps followed by radar and satellite, and then a revamped severe weather section that includes a a lightning image for the Southern Plains. Let me know if there are any other items that should be added.

Welcome to the first day of Meteorological Fall. It won't feel like it. ;)

It has been some time since I've done one of these, so I'll kick things off with an outlook over the next couple of weeks based on this evenings model runs. Overall, things are going to be in flux a bit as we slowly get out of this summer pattern. This weekend we had a decent trough over the Central US that has brought severe weather to the Central Plains and will continue today (Monday) from the OK/KS border NE to Ohio. This trough will move out in a day or two and we'll move into a zonal pattern with slight ridging. Looking at around the 9th of the month, the ridge should start to get pushed out to the SE US. GFS brings in a pretty significant trough, skirting Oklahoma, around the 12th with another ridge building in behind it.

One thing that stood out looking at this is how the GFS handles the disturbance currently off the SW Mexico coast. It takes this system up the Baja and then off to the NE into New Mexico around the 9th. This could mean some added moisture headed our way if this works out. It also forecasts another tropical system making landfall on Mexico's gulf coast around the 17th. Of course, this is all completely unreliable as tropical system forecasts really don't mean anything until the system has actually formed.

Precip Outlook

1st - Monday Evening: GFS pops storms from parts of SW and W OK northeast through Central, Northern, and NE OK. In contract NAM restricts precip to NW and NC OK and possibly NE OK through Monday evening. Some severe hailers/wind possible.
2nd - Early Tuesday: GFS has storm chances through the night and early morning, mostly North of I-40. NAM is similar but a bit more aggressive with storm development and eventually drops precip into Southern OK by early afternoon.
5th - Friday: Another front comes into the state. Chances of showers/storms early Friday from SW into NE OK. Isolated early, then quiet during the afternoon, and then a new surge of precip North of I-40 by mid evening.
6th - Saturday: Scattered showers and storms. Mainly north early, and then the rest of the state except SW later in the day.
7th Sunday: Similar to Saturday, but maybe an increase in actual coverage.
11th Thursday: Slight chance Central and Northern OK.
12th Friday: Chance over much of the state with another front.

Venture, thank you for all you do for the OKCTalk community. You spend a great deal of time and effort keeping us informed. Over the past few years I've completely quit watching the local weather on TV (except when they're doing live tornado coverage) because I get the most reliable, non-spin information from this forum. It's such a valuable resource! Everyone here benefits from your expertise and level-headed forecasting. You are much appreciated!

The short term models are hinting at some higher chances for storms today further south, around the Metro, but I'm not 100% sold on this yet - so we'll just need to monitor how things go.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/14/CGPsf/hrrrCGPsf_sfc_radar_014.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/15/SGP/rapSGP_sfc_radar_012.gif

Venture, thank you for all you do for the OKCTalk community. You spend a great deal of time and effort keeping us informed. Over the past few years I've completely quit watching the local weather on TV (except when they're doing live tornado coverage) because I get the most reliable, non-spin information from this forum. It's such a valuable resource! Everyone here benefits from your expertise and level-headed forecasting. You are much appreciated!


Just want to echo these sentiments, I've learned so much from venture and the folks here in the last couple of years on top of my already decent Okie weather education!

Watch possible for Northern OK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1657.gif

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Updated: Mon Sep-01-14 03:35pm CDT
Effective: Mon Sep-01-14 03:35pm CDT
Expires: Mon Sep-01-14 10:00pm CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Craig; Creek; Delaware; Garfield; Grant; Kay; Mayes; Noble; Nowata; Osage; Ottawa; Pawnee; Payne; Rogers; Tulsa; Wagoner; Washington

Message summary: Severe thunderstorm watch 486 is in effect until 1000 pm cdt for the following locations ok . Oklahoma counties included are alfalfa craig creek delaware garfield grant kay mayes noble nowata osage ottawa pawnee payne rogers tulsa wagoner washington.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Most of the development for now has been either right on the KS border or north. One cell is attempting to go up north of Ringwood and should head north of Enid. Will watch for any further development to the south this evening.

Band of towering CU is going from the Enid Area all the way back to Elk City. I don't expect everything to pop, but the potential is there that one or two might get going further south on that line.

This is for NE OK...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CRAIG COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 652 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF EDNA...AND MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

Storm approaching the areas from Enid up to Kremlin is border line severe right now, so heads up.

Tornado warned storm out east north of Welch. Up in Kansas some pretty tough storms, including one monster that is just NE of Arkansas City. History of hail up to 3 inches and a well defined hook on it.

EDIT 7:12PM - Storm north of Lahoma moving east towards Enid and Kremlin is now severe warned.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-sep/1-1.png

Severe storm continues to sit over Enid with 1" hail confirmed in the city. New storms are starting to fill down the line from that storm SW past Canton to near Oakwood. Storm motions are changing to E to ESE, so chances are going up slightly that we'll get some rain around the Metro area.

New storms are now severe moving towards Okeene and eventually Hennessey and possibly Dover and Kingfisher (the far NW reaches of the Metro area).

Tornado Warning Osage County in NE OK...Confirmed TOR.

/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140902T0245Z/
OSAGE OK-
907 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY
UNTIL 945 PM CDT...


AT 905 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ELGIN...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.


HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.


SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

Radar update on the severe storms that will be moving through at lease the Northern part of the metro area.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-sep/1-2.png

MCS developing over NE OK. Moving SE. Winds to 70 mph or higher likely (and reported) with it. Warnings are going out well in advance of the precipitation at this point - all the way to Pryor SE of I-44.

For Central OK, storms continue to fire and now are developing back into Custer County. New Watch is up until 3AM to account for these.

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD
KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN
LOGAN MAYES MCINTOSH
MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON

It will be interesting to see if the approaching storm decides to make a sharp right turn to bypass Stillwater and give OKC a good hit.

http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_composite?centerlat=36.10796738&centerlon=-97.07638550&radius=50&type=N0R&frame=1&num=10&delay=15&showstorms=10&lightning=1&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&width=640&height=480&newmaps=1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwftTPcCIAE8hHX.png

Additional development on the last couple of scans now showing up all the way back into Collingsworth, County in the TX panhandle. We'll have to see how intensities go with these, otherwise we might see a watch extension to account for this new development.

Think these storms have enough juice to actually reach the metro for some rain?

Think these storms have enough juice to actually reach the metro for some rain?

Hopefully. Indications that another line will form early tomorrow morning as well, so if we don't get something from this line there is always the next one.

The east end of the storm is in the process of dissipating before it can reach Stillwater. The part of the storm that may affect OKC is holding up better, but not by much.

Line is just about done at this point. I'm not really expecting much to make Oklahoma County at all. Looking at the short term models this evening, next batch of storms should be moving in around daybreak.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/03/SGP/rapSGP_sfc_radar_007.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/02/CGPsf/hrrrCGPsf_sfc_radar_010.gif

AM storms are pretty much as expected. Back edge of the line is through the northern tier of counties in the state and are now east of Highway 81. Heaviest amounts are going to be NE of the OKC area.

The northeast quarter of the state got most of the rain earlier Tuesday. Some of the counties to the east of OKC and northern border counties along Kansas got over 2 inches. The OKC area kinda got left out with considerably lighter amounts, if any. Stillwater didn't get bypassed by most of it for a change. 1.16" fell here. 1.44" at the airport. Next chance for rain is Friday.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

An odd...odd...year for sure. :)

If I remember right from the stats...Caddo County typically has the highest concentration of tornadoes for the state historically (it might be Grady though). Note - no tornado watch for them at all this year and OUN has only issued 7 tornado warnings for the entire year so far in their area.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bwr_UniCMAI4hiG.png:largehttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2014_torww_to_date.pnghttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bwr_UiJCQAM_Q94.png:largehttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/2014_svrww_to_date.png

Yea it is crazy how quiet this year was. Maybe this fall will swing those numbers a bit.


Looking ahead. Saturday into Sunday looks like good shot at storms/showers over much of the state as Hurricane Norbert gets shredded to peices off the Baja. This should keep a nice moisture stream going into next week. As of right now it looks like a potentially severe weather event is possible around Wednesday somewhere over the Southern Plains.

What are the chances of rain for tomorrows high school football games? Most start at 7 pm.

The eastern plains of Colorado are typically active with tornadoes and severe storms but this year was crazy out there. Luckily the largest tornadoes were over rural areas, though there were a few small tornadoes in metro Denver, and one even at 9,800 ft outside Fairplay in Park County. The same moisture stream has given Colorado one of its coolest and wettest summers ever.

I found it interesting from those maps that the Sacramento NWS issued more tornado warnings than they did severe thunderstorm warnings. HUH? I guess that's possible but it seems a little strange.

NAM keeps C and E OK dry this weekend. Kills off outflow showers and storms in NW OK late tonight.

GFS has rain making it to the I-44 corridor overnight into early Saturday.

We will see who is right, but my gut tells me the NAM.


Either way, we will have awesome temperatures!

Some cells and storms going up now along the front. Isolated chance we see something around here this evening.

The storm to the west of Stillwater had been looking fairly ominous, but not so for now. It's breaking up and at best may only amount to a light shower, if it ever makes it to Stillwater without totally dissipating. Perhaps the one behind it will fare better. The next best hope for rain lies in all that rain now in the TX panhandle doesn't fizzle out before arriving to central Oklahoma.

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=TLX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.313&noclutter=0&t=1326398785&lat=36.10796738&lon=-97.07638550&label=Stillwater%2C+OK&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=393&centery=530&transx=-7&transy=290&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0

Map shows some generous rains have fallen, especially from the west central part of the state curving up to north border counties. In Stillwater, after the first storm arrived Friday evening almost fully dissipated, the situation went uphill from there. Today, all Stillwater WU reporting stations plus mesonet report over 2" have fallen. Highest is from mesonet with 2.82". Light rain still falling as of 1 pm. It's believed OSU is having its rainiest game day in 15 years. The rain is likely to quit in time for the game.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

Looks like we might have lows in the 50s at the end of the upcoming week. You cant beat that especially for this time of year and at this rate wouldn't be surprised if we don't see our first frost pretty soon.

A few chances for rain and storms coming up. First shot is Tues/Weds for most of us and then again towards the end of the upcoming weekend. Severe risk right now doesn't look very certain, but will have to watch. Temps rebound the next couple of days until the front plows through and that should give us decent break from any extreme heat. We can still heat up pretty good into October, so not saying we are done at all yet. However, GFS is stay away from any 90s through the next week and a half...80s might be hard to reach for most. Good news for the utility bills and those that like having the windows open for some fresh air. :)

The end of the heat is near (for now) as the front is currently moving through the state. Precip chances though are pretty pathetic.

10Z HRRR hints are development around 2PM over South Central OK with some possible moving up into Central OK before all shifting into SE OK. Main area at risk today for storms would be far SE OK.

9Z RAP is somewhat similar, just with less precip. Starting early this afternoon around SC OK before moving to focus on SE OK along the front.

06Z NAM has some activity in Central OK this evening behind the front, but mostly in SE OK along it.

At this point Friday appears to be the best day for rain chances, though mostly southeast of I-44 except for a few showers/storms out west as the front comes in.

With a high in the low 70's and low in the 50's this could be one the cooler September home games for OU and OSU on Saturday.

Brief showers developing west of OKC, these will swing into metro area around rush hour.

[QUOTE=venture;826538
06Z NAM has some activity in Central OK this evening behind the front, but mostly in SE OK along it.

At this point Friday appears to be the best day for rain chances, though mostly southeast of I-44 except for a few showers/storms out west as the front comes in.[/QUOTE]
Interesting how KFOR has a 70% of rain on Friday while NWS just says it will cloudy with no chance for rain for then.

Took this pic of the storms to our south and east tonight -- lit up beautifully come sunset this evening. :)

https://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/t31.0-8/10580764_10152431385394200_4905301615415690757_o.j pg

Moderate rain all along the Red River this morning slowly moving north. Also a batch of rain near central OK east of I-35 and south of I-40.

Open window weather through this weekend!

This would be a great snow event if it was 40 degree cooler. :) Just the setup and look of this storm seems pretty winter like.

This would be a great snow event if it was 40 degree cooler. :) Just the setup and look of this storm seems pretty winter like.

GASP!!! You keep that talk of the evil white stuff to yourself! :wink:

Short Term...

Scattered showers over SW OK around Altus will continue to move NE. Central OK might see some light precip this evening if everything works out.

Rest of the Week...

Isolated/scattered rain for most of the state through at least Thursday. Not everyone will see rain. Monday is probably the best chance as the front moves through. Temps will be seasonal in the mid to upper 80s most of the week, some places back into the 90s.

Long(er) Range...

Another big time storm system looks to form up for next week, but before then we should have another system come through over the upcoming weekend that will bring rain chances mainly on Sunday the 21st. Then the strong system for Monday/Tuesday with a good soaking possible (hopeful) as the front blasts through. Should be out of here by that Wednesday.

Severe Weather...

Not really a lot coming up. The Fall severe season definitely isn't here yet. If I would pick a day right now it would be Monday the 22nd.

Live of storms along the front in Northern OK will continue to move southeast. Intensities kicking up a bit, so some small hail possible with these.

Could have some passing showers this afternoon, best chance across SW OK.

Looking ahead, models are beginning to hint at bringing the remnants of tropical system Odile directly into OK this weekend. It then stalls out and camps over NW TX and OK heading into next week as the system gets caught up in a stationary front. If it pans out as such, we could have some flooding rainfalls on our hands.

Latest Euro drops 6-8"+ of rain in a wide swath of central Oklahoma from Saturday into next week. GFS has a lot less.

From Norman's forecast discussion:

THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE EXIT STRATEGY OF THE STORM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA LONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO ADVANCE THE STORM...RESULTING IN LESS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS. OUR FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS IS THE MORE CORRECT OUTCOME...SINCE THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING.

Scratch that 6-8" -- my color scale was off. This would make for an interesting weekend, lol.

https://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/l/t1.0-9/10613022_10152442223499200_390918485414760421_n.jp g?oh=bfb972848fb36641ac48778adcf89a95&oe=54CD9A0F

Accuweather is showing 3-6 inches for drought-stricken OK Panhandle, NM, TX panhandle and SE CO thru Saturday. 1-3 inches across the rest of the state. Shows Odile headed right into central AZ.

06Z GFS run through Monday is below. This is a shift well south now of where it took the heaviest rain in earlier runs.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/06/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_precacc_144.gif

NWS's rainfall ending 7AM Monday...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image_full3.jpg

boo, i want the heavy rains!

Super difficult forecast.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1410961995

I'm driving to south central Colorado starting midday tomorrow and my plan was to drive through central New Mexico... Hell, I still am.

Still some pretty different solutions on the 12Z models. At a quick glance, the GFS brings the corridor of heavy rain in a strip from Santa Fe, NM --> Dalhart, TX --> Liberal, KS and eastward along the OK/KS border from there. This represents a further south solution than last night's runs (which had the bulk of the QPF in SE KS) but a slight shift north from the 06Z run. Heavy rains also fall in the Lubbock--Abilene corridor.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_precacc_111.gif

The 12Z Euro still has a much slower system with the bulk of the rain occurring in the Texas Panhandle, where everywhere from Amarillo to Midland receives 3"+ of rain and there is a wide area of 6-8" totals around Lubbock. Most of Oklahoma receives 1-3" (more as you go west), with rains lasting into the middle of next week.

David Payne's saying an inch in central OK and maybe 3" in the south west.

Moderate/heavy rain moving in from the Northeast coming down the turnpike from Tulsa. It is just about to Perry-Stillwater-Chandler-Okemah-McAlester. Should continue to drop SW just about to the Metro. Another batch of rain is over the southern TX PH moving into SW OK later today.

Looks like this batch will definitely reach OKC. Should be a nice temperature dropper.


Looking into the weekend, GFS and NAM have aligned at bringing Odile remnants into TX PH and stalling out, instead of C OK. Will monitor over next 36 hours for changes, but it looks pretty good.