Looks like this batch will definitely reach OKC. Should be a nice temperature dropper.


Looking into the weekend, GFS and NAM have aligned at bringing Odile remnants into TX PH and stalling out, instead of C OK. Will monitor over next 36 hours for changes, but it looks pretty good.

Yup...the rain just hit the gas and is racing in now. Already to Guthrie-Shawnee-Holdenville-Atoka.

Undular bore! :)

https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/t31.0-8/10540950_10152444778939200_3879871997007838114_o.j pg

https://scontent-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/t31.0-8/10714285_10152444799974200_6663128165694246981_o.j pg

Looks like Norman is going to get almost completely by passed as the line splits right before us. LOL

Yea the rain really died out as it got to C OK.

To further expand on Odile remnants for this weekend. Right now bullseye is southern part of TX panhandle where up to 6 inches is forecasted.

NAM eliminates nearly all rain for most of Oklahoma...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/00/SGP/namSGP_sfc_precacc_084.gif

Booooo!!!! Haha that does suck.

GFS in line with NAM...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/00/SGP/gfsSGP_sfc_precacc_093.gif

Oh, well, at least I got .24 in Stillwater this morning. This much hyped up Odeal, so far, looks less than that.

Oh, well, at least I got .24 in Stillwater this morning. This much hyped up Odeal, so far, looks less than that.

The hype is still real, just not for us. It's going to park over TX instead of moving a bit further NE over us.

OK may get in on some action into next week. It would be nice to get some solid soaking rains heading into fall.

Even the mild temps they forecast especially for the weekend are going to be a bit higher.

The hype is still real, just not for us. It's going to park over TX instead of moving a bit further NE over us.

Does OK have any lakes that would benefit from TX panhandle rain? or does it all come from further north?

Does OK have any lakes that would benefit from TX panhandle rain? or does it all come from further north?

Yes. Lake Altus-Lugert relies on water from the North Fork of the Red River, which is approximately due west of Elk City in the Texas Panhandle. Depending on those models, if it slides a little bit north, it could be a welcome influx of water into that basin.

Rest of the month is starting to shape up pretty dry and boring. A few chances of rain this week over Western OK, but that's about it. Next system moves in around the 29th or 30th with rain chances continuing for the first few days in October. GFS maintains the forecast of a decent cold front and trough pushing through the Eastern half of the US. This would take highs into the 60s around here. Severe chances are pretty minimal for the rest of the month as well. Keep in mind we have had some pretty good sized outbreaks in October and November, but the way the year is going I would be a little shocked to see anything major happen.

One other notable is the GFS has a tropical system moving up the East Coast the first week of October...so something to watch to see if it happens.

Here in far southwest OKC, we are currently experiencing that 6" rain that the local weather "braintrust" predicted all week. One drop every 6 inches.

GFS trying to give us rain chances starting Tuesday, next week.

We need something. Going severe chat room withdraws covering weather. LOL

San Diego weather with Oklahoma City home prices. Great combo :cool18:

The seven-day forecast pretty much shows an extended indian summer headed into the first week of October. How far are we from getting some cooler air? I really enjoyed the cool snap we had around September 12th and am looking forward to the arrival of real autumn.

Severe weather could be in store for next Wed-Thurs. Keeping an eye on it.

Severe weather could be in store for next Wed-Thurs. Keeping an eye on it.

I sure hope so!

I wouldn't mind a good thunderstorm with lots of rain. Bring it on.

The seven-day forecast pretty much shows an extended indian summer headed into the first week of October. How far are we from getting some cooler air? I really enjoyed the cool snap we had around September 12th and am looking forward to the arrival of real autumn.

Well...we haven't really had a killing frost yet to be in an Indian Summer, so you are jumping the gun a bit. :)

Well...we haven't really had a killing frost yet to be in an Indian Summer, so you are jumping the gun a bit. :)

Sounds like a good plot for a horror movie. ;+)

Sounds like a good plot for a horror movie. ;+)

LOL...does sound interesting. :)

Side note...next Wednesday continues to look like the focus for some severe weather in Oklahoma. Starting out over Western OK in the afternoon moving into Central sections in the evening. Still not set in stone, but looking favorable nonetheless.

Is this looking to be a classic dry-line triple point setup?

How does next Thursday 10/2/14 looking rain/storm wise? have outdoor plans in the evening.

Severe weather does not bode well for large Halloween inflatables due to be erected over the weekend. Must tether wisely.

How does next Thursday 10/2/14 looking rain/storm wise? have outdoor plans in the evening.

Storms should be gone by Thursday for the most part.

Wednesday has storms in here late afternoon/evening hours. Best severe chances will be out west as it stands now - will change.

In the year of not getting any system to produce, we may have another one lining up.

Tuesday - Storm chances far western OK. Marginal SVR threat NW along dryline.

Wednesday - Dryline moves east, cold front late from the NW comes down...but it seems mid levels temps will kill precip chances and instability. GFS rockets the dryline through by afternoon and NAM just keeps OK bone dry through early evening. NAM's forecast lines up with the early morning SPC Day 4 outlook of Kansas being the primary target for any severe weather. GFS does have some storms firing by evening, but mostly over NE OK and just to the east and south of the Metro area.

Thursday - Threat shifts to SE OK with storms along cold front.

Next potential storm chances will be one week from today into that following Monday as another strong front drops in.

Well, heck! That's not what we wanted to hear down here in southwest (Duncan) Oklahoma.

We are still in a heavy drought. In fact, our town is going to Stage 4 water rationing on October 1. That means one day a week of outside watering between the hours of midnight and nine a.m. either Wednesday or Saturday depending on where you live in town. Not good!

I'm not really the praying type, but I am praying for rain--and lots of it.

I'm not really the praying type, but I am praying for rain--and lots of it.

I hear ya.... We have land in Carter county and it's dry, dry, dry.

18Z runs changing things up for a bit...

Tonight - Storms remain well west of most of the state.

Tomorrow - Storms fire by late afternoon in NW OK back through the TX PH. NAM wants a line of storms from C KS through SW OK and the S TX PH. Storms would die out by midnight as they approach Central OK. Severe weather possible in NW and far SW OK.

Wednesday - NAM fires storms during the evening over West Central OK and has them into the Metro area by Midnight before they die out. Severe weather possible when they first form.

Thursday - Appears to be a messy day setup wise. NAM has band of leftovers running along I-44. This first boundary will probably push SE and fire off storms in E OK. Then we have the cold front coming in Thursday afternoon which is going to fire off another round of storms just west of the Metro area and bring those through. Everything should clear out very quickly Thursday evening. Severe storms possible ahead of the front if enough destabilization takes place.

GFS has generally the same ideas, but the precip forecasts are a bit broader and not has refined as the NAM is.

Storms continue to fire over Western OK. Slight chance these make Central OK. Severe threat overall low.

Storm chances today look decent. Short term models all pop storms by late this afternoon roughly from Bartlesville-Norman-Duncan-Wichita Falls. Severe risk is low but some could drop hail and get a little rowdy.

Main show is tomorrow. Slight risk for the state roughly I-35 and east, including the Metro area (most of it). Wind and hail are main threats. Our risk here will be early in the afternoon and then clearing out pretty quickly.

Slight Risk added for today for roughly the northern half of the Metro area. Hail/Wind main concerns. Tornado threat mostly up in KS.

TO THE SW OF THIS TSTM REGIME FROM S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO CNTRL
OK...AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN OWING TO THE
TENDENCY FOR SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AS SUCH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS LOW...ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND
THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
STORM INITIATION...THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING
LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS OVER SERN KS THIS EVENING OWING TO THE
ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR-GROUND SHEAR BY THE INTENSIFYING LLJ.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ALONG OR IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT ADVANCING ESEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.

Storms moving up over Anadarko will move into the Metro here soon. Nothing major at all.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
940 pm cdt wed oct 1 2014


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern tillman county in southwestern oklahoma...
Southwestern comanche county in southwestern oklahoma...
Northwestern cotton county in southwestern oklahoma...
Northwestern wichita county in northern texas...
East central wilbarger county in northern texas...


* until 1030 pm cdt


* at 940 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles north of
electra...moving northeast at 50 mph.


Hazard...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1789.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK TO WRN NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020400Z - 020630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF WRN
NORTH TX THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL OK INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. GIVEN THE LIMITED
COVERAGE FOR STRONGER-SEVERE STORMS...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT FOR ANY INDICATION OF AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS.

DISCUSSION...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX
AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/NM
REGION BY 12Z. AS THIS OCCURS...MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AND
GENERALLY REMAIN MODEST WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z
ACROSS WRN OK...RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. ALTHOUGH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED THE SURFACE TO COOL...A
RESERVOIR OF UNTAPPED MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
/EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR KICT SWWD TO 10 E KCSM
TO NEAR KLTS TO 40 W KABI/. DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER PER
NORMAN 00Z SOUNDING COULD ENHANCE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

00Z 4 KM WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL WHILE DIFFERING SOME IN THE TIMING OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE...EACH SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD E/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH
TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE
INTO CENTRAL OK UNTIL TOWARD OR AFTER DAYBREAK...TSTM COVERAGE
SHOULD BE SCATTERED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/02/2014


ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

Slight Risk today, I-35 and east. Main threat wind and hail, some tornadoes further east. Not expect much for us here on the western edge of the risk area. Front is already through NW OK and expect it to come through during the lunch hour. Most short range models blow up storms over SE OK after the front is past Central OK. We'll have to see. This morning storms continue to redevelop over South Central OK and move NE. So slightly better chances to see another storm over the SE half of the metro area.

Still no October thread?! lol

Okay well all models today fire storms directly east of OKC and slam E half of OK.

Looking ahead, GFS has doomsday over OK around Oct 10th.

Looking ahead, GFS has doomsday over OK around Oct 10th.

What do you mean by doomsday? How reliable are severe forecasts this far out?

Still no October thread?! lol

Okay well all models today fire storms directly east of OKC and slam E half of OK.

Looking ahead, GFS has doomsday over OK around Oct 10th.

SMH...one moment.