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Thanks Lj for catching up on my horrible date keeping skills and getting this going. :)

NAM brings our next rain action in Thursdayish. GFS makes it happen on Friday.

Few storms going up in TX PH. These may try and develop along weak front draped across OK. Low chances, low area coverage. Consider yourself lucky if you get rain tonight.

OKC just missed out on the rain this morning/last night. Just E and S of OKC had some rain.


Looks like late tonight there is a chance of a storm cluster moving in from TX PH into NW OK, eventually dying out - but maybe making it to C OK.

Same thing again for Friday night and possibly Saturday evening.


Timing will be hard to forecast, as these will be nowcast situations when/where storms fire and ride along boundaries.

Had a decent downpour here for about 5 minutes and that was it. At least it was something!

SPC adding SLIGHT risk for severe storm that develop later today, in SE CO and SW KS. This [eventual] storm complex has a chance to make it into OK overnight - althought likely non-severe at that point.

I just heard Emily Sutton (KFOR) say Stillwater is about to get some heavy rain. Hope it happens since it seems Stillwater gets missed a lot when the rains do come!

Wish we'd get some down here in Duncan.

Looks like the Stillwater area won out today so far. Up to 1.82". Isolated/scattered showers and storms through the rest of the day, mainly in Northern OK appears to the story for today. More isolated stuff for the rest of the state. If you get something, enjoy it.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1524.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...TEXAS
PANHANDLE...TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 082153Z - 090030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE ALONG A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY THAT
ARCS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SEWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF N TX.
ASCENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY DEEP MIXING/PBL CIRCULATIONS
IN THE HOT AIR W OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL SUPPORT FURTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS TO MID/UPPER-LEVEL SWLYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WEAK IMPULSES STREAMING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION ARE FOSTERING
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS -- ESPECIALLY
E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED/ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
PRESENT. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE AMA VWP...WHICH INDICATES AROUND
35 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR. ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE FROM THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND
SPREAD EWD/NEWD INTO WRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SUCH
POTENTIAL WOULD BE ENCOURAGED BY LOW-LEVEL ELY/S ENHANCING INFLOW
AMIDST MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG E OF THE BOUNDARY.

ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SPORADIC INSTANCES OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A DEARTH OF DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE ABSENCE OF A MORE
SALIENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION. AND...WITH GENERALLY MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK IS NOT PRESENTLY
EXPECTED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/08/2014

Isolated storms continue to pop up. Here in Central OK one lone cell over West Norman moving ENE.

Holy cow. These storms are blowing up. Exponential growth in the past few scans.

It feels horrible, out there. Do I need to roll up my van windows? (Far SW OKC).

ETA - got deep rolling thunder so I went ahead and made an executive decision. Clouds were blowing up over the house in the ten minutes since I'd been outside.

Nice little outflow from these storms. http://img.tapatalk.com/d/14/08/10/emy9yza9.jpg

Small hail at my location.

"Just like that" a cool easterly wind coming from that cell started hitting us and it went from sultry and miserable to relatively cool and breezy. It has been awhile since I've seen something explode so fast.

Nice little outflow from these storms. http://img.tapatalk.com/d/14/08/10/emy9yza9.jpg
Is the $9.99 worth it?

It was for me!

Though I would have gotten the other $10 app if I had known at the time that a friend works for them. Radarscope I think. They're both good.

WunderMap is cool but pretty generic... then again, it's free.

Is the $9.99 worth it?

For that radar app, yes.

For that radar app, yes.
Which app do you prefer? The PYKL3 or Radarscope?

I use Radarscope.

I've found Radarscope to be wonderful, and I don't know if it means anything but most screenshots the meteorologists post on facebook/twitter are from radarscope as well.

Which app do you prefer? The PYKL3 or Radarscope?

I went with PYKL3...they are almost identical, so you can't really go wrong with either.

I use RadarScope on both iPhone and Mac.

I would like to have the other as well. I can't find it in the iPhone App Store. Is it an iPhone app?

General outlook for the rest of Sunday is a repeat of the last couple. Scattered storms that will pop up, dump a good amount of water, and then die. Best area is along/south of I-40.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/18/CGPsf/hrrrCGPsf_sfc_radar_005.gif

After today it looks like the next real shot at rain might be next Friday. The EURO brings a system across Kansas. The best rain chances will be in Kansas however the storm system will push a weak cold front into Oklahoma and we might see a few storms around that boundary late Friday in to Saturday. However we will have limited moisture and a decent cap above us. So nothing to get too excited about, but at least there is a chance.

http://www.oklahomaweathertracker.com/weatherstory3.jpg

Next couple days will be nice. Upper 80s, maybe touch 90. Then gradual temp rise each day until we are back in the 98-100F ballpark.

Our next shot at precip looks like a small chance [at this time] on the weekend.


Looking long-range - could be a little death ridge action setting up - dry and hot looks like the trend.

Mike Morgan must be inhaling too much ganga lately..he was forecasting starting this next Thursday below normal temps and above normal rainfall for like a week but I don't see that forecast anywhere. He must use AccuWeather forecasting models...

Next Thursday? Why a local met would present a forecast to viewers that is slated for 10+ days out is beyond me...

Next Thursday? Why a local met would present a forecast to viewers that is slated for 10+ days out is beyond me...

consider the source ;–)

consider the source ;–)

Yes, his line is ....'Stay with NEWS4 I'll keep you informed'....so much hype....

Next Thursday? Why a local met would present a forecast to viewers that is slated for 10+ days out is beyond me...
This next Thursday is two days out, otherwise I would have said two Thursdays from now.

I see.... Usually when someone says "Next thursday" I think of two away, and when I hear "This Thursday" I think of the immediate one coming. I guess my brain processed you using both of those terms as "next" overpowering "this".

I see.... Usually when someone says "Next thursday" I think of two away, and when I hear "This Thursday" I think of the immediate one coming. I guess my brain processed you using both of those terms as "next" overpowering "this".
Ehhh, it's all good ;)

GFS tries to get some isolated "tail-end" storms going Saturday evening, and a chance again Sunday but more NE OK.

NAM goes with Sunday chances of rain over main body of OK, but better NE. All chances look isolated.


GFS trying to get a couple MCS's going next week from NW OK to C OK - we will see how that pans out as we approach next week.

Scattered showers and storms popping up over North Central back to NW OK. This should all slowly drift south but might just fade out as soon as the sun is gone.

EURO builds in a pretty good ridge this week. This week looks very hot and dry. Maybe some relief at the end of next weekend with maybe some rain and slightly cooler temps. 8986

Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement
Updated: Mon Aug-18-14 03:30am CDT
Effective: Mon Aug-18-14 03:30am CDT
Expires: Mon Aug-18-14 04:00am CDT

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Observed

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Garfield; Lincoln; Logan; Noble; Payne

Message summary: ...significant weather advisory for eastern logan...northwestern lincoln...southeastern garfield...payne and noble counties until 400 am cdt...
At 328 am cdt...strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from 4 miles west of pawnee to 6 miles west of orlando...moving south at 25 mph. Hazards include...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 mph...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Updated: Mon Aug-18-14 03:30am CDT
Effective: Mon Aug-18-14 03:30am CDT
Expires: Mon Aug-18-14 04:00am CDT

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Observed

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Garfield; Lincoln; Logan; Noble; Payne

Message summary: ...significant weather advisory for eastern logan...northwestern lincoln...southeastern garfield...payne and noble counties until 400 am cdt...
At 328 am cdt...strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from 4 miles west of pawnee to 6 miles west of orlando...moving south at 25 mph. Hazards include...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 mph...

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

Stillwater is being mostly bypassed by this storm system, but it looks like Oklahoma City is going to get it head-on as it heads south with a gust front. However, storm is weakening.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
Updated: Mon Aug-18-14 04:02am CDT
Effective: Mon Aug-18-14 04:02am CDT
Expires: Mon Aug-18-14 04:45am CDT

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Observed

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Canadian; Cleveland; Kingfisher; Lincoln; Logan; McClain; Oklahoma; Payne; Pottawatomie

Message summary: ...significant weather advisory for logan...oklahoma...western lincoln...southeastern kingfisher...western payne...northwestern mcclain...cleveland...northwestern pottawatomie and northeastern canadian counties until 445 am cdt...
At 401 am cdt...strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from 4 miles northwest of perkins to near guthrie to 8 miles west of crescent...moving south at 35 mph. Hazards include...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 mph...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Remaining cell right now is now east of 35 and approaching 44. Some small hail still possible with it mainly south of Arcadia. Movement still generally south. Should stay in the eastern half of the county until it dies out.

Outside of a random cell or two popping up today, ridge of death is here. Next legit shot at precip looks to show up around August 25th.

Really cool undular bore (Undular bore - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undular_bore#In_meteorology)) this morning across central Oklahoma from the dying storms to the north! Cool stuff.

http://www.philip-lutzak.com/weather/GRAVITY%20WAVES%20-%20GOM/GRAVITY%20WAVE%20FILES/BORE%203%20types%20of%20gravity%20waves%20per%20Lo catelli%201998.JPG

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpf1/t1.0-9/10474644_10152381527919200_4170131018712460992_n.j pg

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/t1.0-9/10556223_10152381527989200_1318138128201743_n.jpg

Thought about taking a picture of the cloud formation but alas I didn't.

Storms bubbling up in NC OK, these are pretty strong. These will flair up and die down, riding their outflow boundaries. Consider yourself lucky if you get a nice drink!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1575.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182129Z - 182330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE BUT
TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM W-CNTRL KS SWD INTO FAR N-CNTRL OK AND THEN SEWD INTO E-CNTRL
OK. CONDITIONS W/SW OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WITH DEWPOINTS IN LOW TO
MID 60S WITH CONDITIONS E/NE OF THE BOUNDARY MORE MOIST BUT COOLER.
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S ARE
JUXTAPOSED WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S...SUPPORTING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED FROM
3000-4000 J PER KG.

UPPER FLOW IS WEAK WITH LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SVR HAIL AND WIND. UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL FAVOR
PROPAGATION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR
THREAT COUPLED WITH A DISORGANIZED MODE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 08/18/2014

Quick radar grab showing the storms Anon was talking about. A few severe or near severe limits. A couple noticeable boundaries on the radar images as well.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-aug/18-1.png

The 5 pm approaching storm view in Stillwater. If all goes well, Stillwater and OKC won't have to miss out on the rain this time as was the case last night, although the far west side of Stillwater got .31 last night. It starting to look like the current storm track may bypass Stillwater in the same way.

http://stillwaterweather.com/photos/stw.jpg

Storm moving to near Guthrie is now severe. That cell is a little uneven in its track...I would say mostly South with a wabble either way. The other two severe warned storms to the NW are moving very slowly SE. Cell over Bristow is moving SW and the one south of Cleveland is mostly stationary.



http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-aug/18-2.png

Out flow boundary has now made it south of I-40. A few shows and storms are developing over Oklahoma back through Canadian counties.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/2014-aug/18-3.png

A few showers and storms popping up over South Central OK and moving North. Should see a steady increase in coverage through the afternoon.

Was downtown looking around at the Stage Center demolition site last night when the outflow boundary approached the metro. The dark clouds behind the skyline were beautiful! We weren't so thrilled when the boundary got to downtown, as it blew massive amounts of dust all over the place—from both the Stage Center and Rex Elementary sites. We had dirt in our eyes and mouths by the time we got to the car. Oh well, it was still fun!

And the Stage Center site, if you didn't know it was being demolished on purpose, almost looks like a tornado hit it. The trees around it are kind of wilty, which adds to the effect.

Looking at the forecast over the next couple of weeks, heat continues for a bit. Isolated showers/storms increase in coverage as we get closer to next Weds PM-Thurs PM. Then a more widespread chance of rain and storms. Then looks like about a week of dry weather until anther front comes through the following Weds. Again another warm up and drying out period followed by a hopeful front around Sept 8th. This could be a decent front to help break temps finally.

NAM and GFS both aligning this morning to stall out a front over OK beginning Wednesday. Beginning in W/NW OK and crawling its way east.

Both models taking the action into the holiday weekend.

I was kinda hopin' we could get whacked with one of those polar vortexes from earlier this year.

NAM and GFS both aligning this morning to stall out a front over OK beginning Wednesday. Beginning in W/NW OK and crawling its way east.

Both models taking the action into the holiday weekend.

Could get interesting rainfall wise if the system in the Gulf gets its act together.

I for 1 would not be complaining if that were to happen!!

I for 1 would not be complaining if that were to happen!!

Me either. Just not Saturday. Looking forward to some tailgating.

Could get interesting rainfall wise if the system in the Gulf gets its act together.

Yea. NAM bringing pieces of that tropical moisture into the stalled front. Right now progging 1-2 inches over most of OK.

Me either. Just not Saturday. Looking forward to some tailgating.

I know how desperately so much of the state still needs rain, but please, not from about 4pm Sat until, say, 10pm?

I just know that given the "temperature" of the weather safety police at OU these days that if it starts raining and so much as a flash bulb goes of within five miles of the stadium they'll evacuate the place, declare martial law, and delay kickoff until 10pm.

I kinda remember the days when if it rained, you..played.