I'll believe it about Canton when I see the pool level.

He is leaving help a key word. It will "help" fill Canton lake. It will not fill up Canton lake all the way to the top. Not even close.

Day One outlook today...some storms could get a bit grumpy, but nothing wide spread. Conditions also there for a quick spin up or two as well.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD THROUGH SWRN KS...WILL
TRACK INTO CENTRAL OK BY THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE OK-AR BORDER
BY 31/12Z. EARLY MORNING SURFACE/STREAMLINE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN FAR SWRN KS WITH A WIND SHIFT EXTENDING SEWD
THROUGH NRN TO EAST-CENTRAL OK. A SECOND BOUNDARY EXTENDED
GENERALLY W-E ACROSS NORTH TX TO SERN NM. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SWWD FROM THE KS LOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
WITH TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INVOF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF WRN-SWRN OK AND WRN NORTH TX DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS THROUGH THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES
THROUGH MUCH OF OK TO FAR NORTH TX. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
TSTMS WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...CLOSER TO
THE MIDLEVEL IMPULSE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
THE SLY LLJ SHIFTING EWD TO NORTH TX AND OK...DPVA WITH THE TROUGH
AND LOW-LEVEL WAA SUGGEST THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ALONG THE SWRN-SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH THE SWRN
KS SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THIS FEATURE INTO THE SERN TX
PANHANDLE BY 31/00Z AND THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX BY 31/12Z.

A MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4-1.9 INCHES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. AS THE SRN PLAINS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EWD...ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/SURFACE HEATING SHOULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES PER 12Z SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAIN A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION TODAY AND HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES. MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND DPVA ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STORMS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS WITH STRONGER MIXING/STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COULD ENHANCE A THREAT FOR STRONGER WIND GUST.
VERTICALLY-VEERING WINDS...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY...COULD PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE SIZE
OF ANY HAIL PRODUCTION.

IF LATER DATA SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN
THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK
MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

Most of NW and W OK is already at the 1.5" mark.

C OK is approaching 1", some heavier pockets towards Norman are already over 1".

If the low keeps sinking south along the NW TX and W OK border, then the totals should keep going up. A kind of "deformation zone" is set up in SC KS, south of Wichita. If the low keeps heading south, this zone will be dragged over NC OK and possible directly over C OK by tonight. If the low moves more in a ESE to E direction earlier - NC to NE OK could get a prolonged period of heavier rains.

It's my birthday today and every year, I ask for rain. Looks like I got my wish today...

Happy Birthday.

The situation for the low has it moving somewhat to the north and east, so that Stillwater, Ponca City and Tulsa are now included in the revised Flash Flood Watch until 7am Thursday:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

...flash flood watch in effect...
.widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will move across northern and central oklahoma today. By this evening...the heaviest rainfall is expected in central and eastern oklahoma. The heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding.
...flash flood watch in effect from 7 am cdt this morning through thursday morning...
The national weather service in norman has expanded the
* flash flood watch to include portions of central oklahoma...
East central oklahoma and northern oklahoma...including the following areas...in central oklahoma...lincoln...payne and pottawatomie. In east central oklahoma...hughes...pontotoc and seminole. In northern oklahoma...kay and noble.
* from 7 am cdt this morning through thursday morning
* rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts
* several inches of rain may cause areal flooding...elevated creeks and river

Happy Birthday.

The situation for the low has it moving somewhat to the north and east, so that Stillwater, Ponca City and Tulsa are now included in the revised Flash Flood Watch until 7am Thursday:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

...flash flood watch in effect...
.widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will move across northern and central oklahoma today. By this evening...the heaviest rainfall is expected in central and eastern oklahoma. The heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding.
...flash flood watch in effect from 7 am cdt this morning through thursday morning...
The national weather service in norman has expanded the
* flash flood watch to include portions of central oklahoma...
East central oklahoma and northern oklahoma...including the following areas...in central oklahoma...lincoln...payne and pottawatomie. In east central oklahoma...hughes...pontotoc and seminole. In northern oklahoma...kay and noble.
* from 7 am cdt this morning through thursday morning
* rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts
* several inches of rain may cause areal flooding...elevated creeks and river

Please state your source for this info you have of the Low moving more easterly than south? Anon said the low was moving south word...

Rain looks to be breaking up west and southwest of OKC. Dry slots happen in the summer months too, I guess.

If you want to see how the low is moving, check the Dodge City, KS radar.

You can clearly see a jog to the east over the last hour or so. However, this does not mean W and C OK are done.

If you want to see how the low is moving, check the Dodge City, KS radar.

You can clearly see a jog to the east over the last hour or so. However, this does not mean W and C OK are done.
Yeah, I'm looking at the WunderMap radar and it looks to me like it's clearing out..precip wise. It may stay cloudy but the only way it's gonna be a solid wall of water is if new storms bubble up and another shield of rain drops down. Doubt that's gonna happen. I've experienced this rodeo before.

Please state your source for this info you have of the Low moving more easterly than south? Anon said the low was moving south word...

I have no source other than my memory of the flash flood watch when first issued yesterday did not include the counties to the north and east as it does today.

so much for 5" in OKC, right?

Exactly.

FWIW, the NWS is expecting some clearing to take from OKC southwestward and then for storms to redevelop due to increasing instability. We shall see!

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/t1.0-9/10511350_784044078283188_2665772563377833811_n.jpg

Yep, I was just about to say that this dry-period wasn't unexpected.

From the 6:30 am Forecast Discussion (Aviation):
"WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS. A FEW SHORT RANGE MODELS BRING SOME DRYING INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH REDEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
OKC/OUN SHOULD BE IMPACTED WITH RAIN AND A FEW STORMS."

NW OK, Buffalo to Woodward are first in the state to go over 2 inches so far.

NW TX into SW OK has some clearing taking palce, temps are mid to upper 70s there.

Here in NW OKC we got a nice steady rain all day so far but it was no where near the rainmageddon I was expecting. I guess we'll see what happens later tonight.

good info as usual, these threads never disappoint

Rain and embedded thunderstorm really filling in now. Looks like this will happen directly over C OK heading into tonight.

Stillwater is in one of the driest holes in the state getting .45", so far. But, on the other hand, it looks like Oklahoma City better get ready to NOT get bypassed by some downpours for the next hour, or so, including a possible flash flood warning, according to Mike Morgan.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

Canton Lake has picked up an inch so far today...only 12 feet more and it will be full!

Canton Lake has picked up an inch so far today...only 12 feet more and it will be full!

Actually the lake level went from 1603.00 yesterday to 1603.41 now. That's a pretty good jump for one day, especially during the time of the year when the level normally drops.

Almost 5 inches NE sides of metro and 2-4 inches across the rest.

Solid rain for July.

Almost 5 inches NE sides of metro and 2-4 inches across the rest.

Solid rain for July.

Absolutely, and it was mentioned on the news tonight that Arcadia lake has been going up about 2 inches per hour and could go up by a foot total.

so much for 5" in OKC, right?

Some parts of the metro did receive that much.

GFS nailed this system like it was building a house. Never count out wrap-around convection. If this was winter, that spurt in C OK would have dumped 6+ inches of snow.

Always my go to place for meaningful local weather events.

Looking ahead, now.

Looks like an amazing weekend, mid 80s.

Next week the heat builds back, but only to lower 90s across most of OK.

Next shot at rain/cooler temps comines in late next week heading into next weekend. The following week appears unsettled on long-term GFS.

Per the Oklahoma Mesonet ticker...

Wow, how did I miss this? Apparently Burneyville down near the Red River recorded a 106MPH gust last night and recorded 3" of rain in an hour (with 2" of that occurring in 30 minutes).

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20140731/burneyville-meteogram.gif

Downburst?

This might be overly optimistic, but I'm going to put it out there anyway:

Is there a long-range forecast that gives any indication of what the weather will be like on August 30th? We're seeing Chicago & REO Speedwagon that night, so I am curious about what to expect. Obviously, I'm not expecting to know that exact high, low, and rain total this far out. I'm just hoping for something that might indicate whether it will be "typical Oklahoma hot & humid" or something different. The unseasonably cool temperatures we've enjoyed for most of this summer would be wonderful that night.

Enjoy one more day of slightly below normal temps and less humid air. Humidity and warmer temps return tomorrow.

http://oklahomaweathertracker.com/okc7day.jpg

EDIT: wrong thread.

Guys this is the July thread. Please keep things over in August. :)

Reported to lock this one to reduce confusion.

Woops, saw this one bumped and thought it was August.