venture
06-11-2014, 04:14 AM
The final numbers are available for 2013 (and have been for a month or two, but time has been tight) and I wanted to start diving into them. I normally would put this information in the commercial aviation thread we have already but I wanted to keep that focused on current year activity. This is more of a review of 2013. To start I'll bring in the Top 15 markets by O&D (Origin/Destination) passengers and compare the passenger number trends for the year on the route and air fares.
Abbreviation Key
pax = Passenger
ppd = Passengers per day in a market, divide by two to get estimate for each direction.
Atlanta, GA
The year started with only Delta flying nonstop to Atlanta and ended with AirTran Airways (owned by Southwest) adding a couple nonstops and Delta increasing mainline service in response. Delta had a market share high of 70.1% in the market during the second quarter and saw it fall to to under 50% by the 4th quarter. During the 2nd quarter, a traditional busy quarter for air service, had 241 ppd. Once AirTran started service the market surged to 374 ppd in the 4th quarter. The average air fare also saw some big changes. It started the year at an average one way fare of $309 and ended the year at $199. By the end of December, AirTran had captured a 38.4% market share. For a perspective on that, Southwest whom had the lowest air fare in the market in the 2nd quarter of 2013 only had a 13.5% market share with connecting service.
The future: AirTran exits the market in November 2014 as Southwest finally brings the operation to an end. Southwest will assume operation of the service with 2 daily 737-700s seating 143 passengers and increase over the AirTran Boeing 717-200s that seat 117.
Chicago, IL
Chicago has become a congested market for Oklahoma City with 3 carriers now offering nonstop service. American and United operate service via their contract carriers to O'Hare and Southwest (WN) operated service to Midway. In November, service was taken over by AirTran Airways on the two daily flights from Southwest but it has since reverted by to WN. Unlike ATL, Chicago didn't see big a bump in traffic. Around 340 ppd took the route in Q4 which equaled Q2. For much of the year Southwest controlled the largest market share with just 2 daily flights ending Q3 with 43.1% share. AirTran took over in Q4 and had 34.2% share. Market air fares fell from $236 to $203 each way on average.
The future: Nothing scheduled yet, but expectations are that American will move from the ERJ-145s to the Embraer E-Jets soon.
Dallas / Ft Worth, TX
American and Southwest provide the nonstop service in this market. It remained mostly flat to down slightly. Pax numbers went from 252 ppd in Q1 down to 235 in Q4. WN controlled the market in Q1 and Q2 and AA took over in Q3 & Q4. By Q4 AA had 50.4% of the market. Air fares in the market are actually higher when comparing Q4 to Q1. Fares climbed from $138 to $159 with AA being the lowest fare carrier in the market.
The future: Southwest will cut to just 3 flights per day to DAL going forward.
Denver, CO
Another battle ground with 3 airlines in the market - United, Frontier, and Southwest. Pax numbers increased through the year from 499 ppd in Q1 up to 620 in Q3 before settling back around 572 by the end of the year. Air fares increased slightly from $122 to $134 through the year with Southwest retaining the lowest fares in the market - on average. Southwest has the largest market share at 51%, but Frontier is the lowest fare airline in the market and has a 23% market share. Frontier's average fare is $119.
The future: No major changes right now. Frontier continues to transition to a ULCC and will likely help keep fares flat or pulled slightly lower.
Houston, TX
Two airlines service this market between United and Southwest. Pax numbers are down slightly through the year from a high of 725 in Q2 to a low in Q4 of 616 ppd. Southwest is both the largest market share holder and lowest fare provider. By Q4 WN controlled 61% of the market. Fares have been mostly flat starting around $197 and ending at $199.
The future: No changes planned.
Las Vegas, NV
Southwest provides the only nonstop service in this market. Pax numbers are up a bit from 365 to 407 by the end of the year. Southwest has the largest market share of around 70% by the end of the year. Average fares rose from $210 up to $222. Lowest fare provided is Frontier, for the entire year, with around an 11% market share and average fare around $167.
The future: No changes planned.
Los Angeles, CA
AA and UA offer nonstop service in this market with AA preparing to upgrade the aircraft to CRJ-900s that will be operated by Mesa as US Airways Express. Fares were flat from $262 to $268 through the year. AA has the largest market share of only 29.9%, so the pax are pretty split up between most carriers. AA started out offering the lowest air fare in the market at $266 in Q1, but Frontier had this position by Q4 with a fare around $167 and a near 15% market share.
The future: AA service will be replaced, for now, but US Airways Express CRJ-900s and upgrade in aircraft size. AA and US merged last year and this is just part of the cross fleeting.
New York, NY
Only United offers nonstop service in this market with just one flight per day. They control market share which was around 41% in Q1 and fell to 36% in Q4. WN has the lowest fares in the market but only a 14% market share. Pax climbed from 235 ppd in Q1 and ended at 314 ppd by Q4. Fares remained flat from $285 down to $283. Lowest fares averaged around $244 by the end of the year.
The future: Possible equipment upgrades in the works from an ERJ-140 to an Embraer 170.
Orlando, FL
Nonstop serviced was added in towards the end of the year via Sanford, FL and Allegiant (G4). WN started off with the highest market share at 57.8 but lost it by the end of the year to AA which had 32%. Fares in the market bounced around but remained relatively flat from $226 down to $208. Lowest fare provided in the market has jumped from WN ($201) to DL ($157) to UA ($200).
The future: Appears G4 is yanking service to Sanford, FL and if it is realized would be year another failure of an airline to provide service in the market.
Phoenix, AZ
Southwest is the market share leader at 68%, but American offers the lowest fares in the market with a 15% market share. Average fares started at $208 and rose to $216. Lowest fares averaged around $170 for the year. Pax numbers remained mostly flat ending at 270 ppd.
The future: No changes expected.
San Diego, CA
No nonstop service in the market. Year ended with 141 ppd. WN has the largest market share around 50% by the end of the year. Average fares rose from $229 to $245. Frontier had the lowest fare by Q4 at $182 coupled with a 16% market share.
The future: No nonstop service expected.
San Francisco, CA
United provides a single daily nonstop flight. UA also ended the year controlling the market at 34% share. Average fares stayed around $280 for the year. Frontier had the lowest fare by Q4 around $192 and a 12% market share.
The future: No major changes expected.
Seattle, WA
No nonstop service in the market. Fares rose from $232 to $266 by the end of the year. Pax rose from 113 ppd to 146. Frontier moved in to the lead with the most market share of 36% by Q4. Frontier was also the lowest fare airline for the year starting at $180 and ending at $203.
The future: No service expected.
St. Louis, MO
Mostly flat for the market around 135 ppd up to 145 by year end. Southwest is the market leader ending around 77% share and also the lowest fares in the market. Fares rose from $170 to $178 through the year.
The future: Southwest will return to 2 daily flights.
Washington, DC (incl Baltimore)
Southwest provides a daily nonstop to Baltimore and United offers a nonstop to Dulles. Pax rose from 304 up to 367 by end of the year. WN had the largest market share around 40% and also was the lowest fare airline. Fares dropped from $275 to $254.
The future: No major changes.
Abbreviation Key
pax = Passenger
ppd = Passengers per day in a market, divide by two to get estimate for each direction.
Atlanta, GA
The year started with only Delta flying nonstop to Atlanta and ended with AirTran Airways (owned by Southwest) adding a couple nonstops and Delta increasing mainline service in response. Delta had a market share high of 70.1% in the market during the second quarter and saw it fall to to under 50% by the 4th quarter. During the 2nd quarter, a traditional busy quarter for air service, had 241 ppd. Once AirTran started service the market surged to 374 ppd in the 4th quarter. The average air fare also saw some big changes. It started the year at an average one way fare of $309 and ended the year at $199. By the end of December, AirTran had captured a 38.4% market share. For a perspective on that, Southwest whom had the lowest air fare in the market in the 2nd quarter of 2013 only had a 13.5% market share with connecting service.
The future: AirTran exits the market in November 2014 as Southwest finally brings the operation to an end. Southwest will assume operation of the service with 2 daily 737-700s seating 143 passengers and increase over the AirTran Boeing 717-200s that seat 117.
Chicago, IL
Chicago has become a congested market for Oklahoma City with 3 carriers now offering nonstop service. American and United operate service via their contract carriers to O'Hare and Southwest (WN) operated service to Midway. In November, service was taken over by AirTran Airways on the two daily flights from Southwest but it has since reverted by to WN. Unlike ATL, Chicago didn't see big a bump in traffic. Around 340 ppd took the route in Q4 which equaled Q2. For much of the year Southwest controlled the largest market share with just 2 daily flights ending Q3 with 43.1% share. AirTran took over in Q4 and had 34.2% share. Market air fares fell from $236 to $203 each way on average.
The future: Nothing scheduled yet, but expectations are that American will move from the ERJ-145s to the Embraer E-Jets soon.
Dallas / Ft Worth, TX
American and Southwest provide the nonstop service in this market. It remained mostly flat to down slightly. Pax numbers went from 252 ppd in Q1 down to 235 in Q4. WN controlled the market in Q1 and Q2 and AA took over in Q3 & Q4. By Q4 AA had 50.4% of the market. Air fares in the market are actually higher when comparing Q4 to Q1. Fares climbed from $138 to $159 with AA being the lowest fare carrier in the market.
The future: Southwest will cut to just 3 flights per day to DAL going forward.
Denver, CO
Another battle ground with 3 airlines in the market - United, Frontier, and Southwest. Pax numbers increased through the year from 499 ppd in Q1 up to 620 in Q3 before settling back around 572 by the end of the year. Air fares increased slightly from $122 to $134 through the year with Southwest retaining the lowest fares in the market - on average. Southwest has the largest market share at 51%, but Frontier is the lowest fare airline in the market and has a 23% market share. Frontier's average fare is $119.
The future: No major changes right now. Frontier continues to transition to a ULCC and will likely help keep fares flat or pulled slightly lower.
Houston, TX
Two airlines service this market between United and Southwest. Pax numbers are down slightly through the year from a high of 725 in Q2 to a low in Q4 of 616 ppd. Southwest is both the largest market share holder and lowest fare provider. By Q4 WN controlled 61% of the market. Fares have been mostly flat starting around $197 and ending at $199.
The future: No changes planned.
Las Vegas, NV
Southwest provides the only nonstop service in this market. Pax numbers are up a bit from 365 to 407 by the end of the year. Southwest has the largest market share of around 70% by the end of the year. Average fares rose from $210 up to $222. Lowest fare provided is Frontier, for the entire year, with around an 11% market share and average fare around $167.
The future: No changes planned.
Los Angeles, CA
AA and UA offer nonstop service in this market with AA preparing to upgrade the aircraft to CRJ-900s that will be operated by Mesa as US Airways Express. Fares were flat from $262 to $268 through the year. AA has the largest market share of only 29.9%, so the pax are pretty split up between most carriers. AA started out offering the lowest air fare in the market at $266 in Q1, but Frontier had this position by Q4 with a fare around $167 and a near 15% market share.
The future: AA service will be replaced, for now, but US Airways Express CRJ-900s and upgrade in aircraft size. AA and US merged last year and this is just part of the cross fleeting.
New York, NY
Only United offers nonstop service in this market with just one flight per day. They control market share which was around 41% in Q1 and fell to 36% in Q4. WN has the lowest fares in the market but only a 14% market share. Pax climbed from 235 ppd in Q1 and ended at 314 ppd by Q4. Fares remained flat from $285 down to $283. Lowest fares averaged around $244 by the end of the year.
The future: Possible equipment upgrades in the works from an ERJ-140 to an Embraer 170.
Orlando, FL
Nonstop serviced was added in towards the end of the year via Sanford, FL and Allegiant (G4). WN started off with the highest market share at 57.8 but lost it by the end of the year to AA which had 32%. Fares in the market bounced around but remained relatively flat from $226 down to $208. Lowest fare provided in the market has jumped from WN ($201) to DL ($157) to UA ($200).
The future: Appears G4 is yanking service to Sanford, FL and if it is realized would be year another failure of an airline to provide service in the market.
Phoenix, AZ
Southwest is the market share leader at 68%, but American offers the lowest fares in the market with a 15% market share. Average fares started at $208 and rose to $216. Lowest fares averaged around $170 for the year. Pax numbers remained mostly flat ending at 270 ppd.
The future: No changes expected.
San Diego, CA
No nonstop service in the market. Year ended with 141 ppd. WN has the largest market share around 50% by the end of the year. Average fares rose from $229 to $245. Frontier had the lowest fare by Q4 at $182 coupled with a 16% market share.
The future: No nonstop service expected.
San Francisco, CA
United provides a single daily nonstop flight. UA also ended the year controlling the market at 34% share. Average fares stayed around $280 for the year. Frontier had the lowest fare by Q4 around $192 and a 12% market share.
The future: No major changes expected.
Seattle, WA
No nonstop service in the market. Fares rose from $232 to $266 by the end of the year. Pax rose from 113 ppd to 146. Frontier moved in to the lead with the most market share of 36% by Q4. Frontier was also the lowest fare airline for the year starting at $180 and ending at $203.
The future: No service expected.
St. Louis, MO
Mostly flat for the market around 135 ppd up to 145 by year end. Southwest is the market leader ending around 77% share and also the lowest fares in the market. Fares rose from $170 to $178 through the year.
The future: Southwest will return to 2 daily flights.
Washington, DC (incl Baltimore)
Southwest provides a daily nonstop to Baltimore and United offers a nonstop to Dulles. Pax rose from 304 up to 367 by end of the year. WN had the largest market share around 40% and also was the lowest fare airline. Fares dropped from $275 to $254.
The future: No major changes.