That's stupid.

It's not stupid. Different people have different climate preferences. A lot of people here may disagree with me but I would love to live in a Mediterranean climate.

Hope we get more rain…..
Once again Norman missed out compared to OKC.
At 6.9 inches of rain Norman’s 90 day rain total is significantly behind most of the OKC which is 11.8 to 14.6…….
Norman did get .58 and that was enough rain to water in my fertilizer.




Mesonet | 90-day Rainfall Accumulation (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/90_day_rainfall_accumulation/rainfall)

Yeah, we've really been getting the short end of the stick here in this "Drought recovery"....

It's not stupid. Different people have different climate preferences. A lot of people here may disagree with me but I would love to live in a Mediterranean climate.
It is stupid. 80-ish degree weather has far fewer risks and negative impacts than 100+ degree weather. It's like saying that I prefer severe thunderstorms over run-of-the-mill thunder showers. I may personally prefer and enjoy more extreme weather, but my personal preference puts more at risk than the alternative.

I am assuming last nights rain was enough to change our drought status. NW sides of the metro got a pretty good soaking.

It is stupid. 80-ish degree weather has far fewer risks and negative impacts than 100+ degree weather. It's like saying that I prefer severe thunderstorms over run-of-the-mill thunder showers. I may personally prefer and enjoy more extreme weather, but my personal preference puts more at risk than the alternative.

I agree
Our local ecosystem and farm economy is not really designed for a Mediterranean climate….. they would both suffer severally if it stayed a “Mediterranean climate” for long.
The south plains of Texas (from Lubbock south) are pretty warm, dry with low humidity’s most of the time. If you can get away from the dust and that can be hard, but done, it has a fairly comfortable climate (almost Mediterranean like) that’s not all that far away.

How is that stupid? I'd take the 100+ temps over 80 degree weather any day. I do have to admit, I am enjoying the lush vegetation, but I also enjoy heat as well.

That's even easier to say if you don't have to pay for the electricity bill that skyrockets to cool your indoors, unless you like 90s and 100s indoors, too. You do look a bit stupid by not living in Phoenix.

Hope we get more rain…..
Once again Norman missed out compared to OKC.
At 6.9 inches of rain Norman’s 90 day rain total is significantly behind most of the OKC which is 11.8 to 14.6…….
Norman did get .58 and that was enough rain to water in my fertilizer.

Mesonet | 90-day Rainfall Accumulation (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/90_day_rainfall_accumulation/rainfall)

As usual, Stillwater missed out but got something better than nothing with .30" to .50". Tulsa did little better. But much of Oklahoma City got very handsome amounts last night as this map shows:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.24hour-rainrfc_front580.png

That's even easier to say if you don't have to pay for the electricity bill that skyrockets to cool your indoors, unless you like 90s and 100s indoors, too. You do look a bit stupid by not living in Phoenix.
...and at least in Phoenix, it's a dry heat. 107 feels like 107. 107 here feels like 115, when the humidity is noticeable.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S5

That's stupid.Your opinion

It is stupid. 80-ish degree weather has far fewer risks and negative impacts than 100+ degree weather. It's like saying that I prefer severe thunderstorms over run-of-the-mill thunder showers. I may personally prefer and enjoy more extreme weather, but my personal preference puts more at risk than the alternative.It is not stupid... it is your opinion

It is not stupid... it is your opinion
And it's your opinion that it's not stupid... even when it is.

That's even easier to say if you don't have to pay for the electricity bill that skyrockets to cool your indoors, unless you like 90s and 100s indoors, too. You do look a bit stupid by not living in Phoenix.Jesus Christ people... do you not realize we do get 100+ temps here in the plains? Quit telling people it is stupid or move to Phoenix because we're wanting that in the summer.

Someone wanting a certain variation of weather isn't stupid, it's personal preference. If that bothers you to the point where you are going to insult people call their opinions stupid, then perhaps you ought to step away from the keyboard and have a drink or something because there is no reason to debate this. I want a few weeks of 100+ degree temps. You don't. I could tell you to move the Pacific Northwest, but I'm not going to because that is not respectful. I am likely moving to L.A. this coming March, which won't have 100 degree weather at all, doesn't mean I still won't want it. Here in Oklahoma I am used to having it because it is generally something that happens here and I am, as well as others, are entitled to our opinion.

Bottom line is, I want 100+ temps and you and Of Sound Mind(as well as plenty of other posters) don't want it. There is nothing else to say, it will likely happen and that's that. It would be nice to post something on here about that without people like Of Sound Mind calling "that" stupid because he want's lower temps. Whatever. I honestly don't even care because the temps are going to go back up here soon.

And it's your opinion that it's not stupid... even when it is.what?

I'm saying someone opinion of wanting 100+ degree temps isn't stupid, it's an opinion.

what?

I'm saying someone opinion of wanting 100+ degree temps isn't stupid, it's an opinion.
An opinions can indeed be stupid, even if it's just an opinion.

I am assuming last nights rain was enough to change our drought status. NW sides of the metro got a pretty good soaking.

We got exactly 4 inches here in Surrey Hills.

An opinions can indeed be stupid, even if it's just an opinion.That's you opinion. I'm done with this pointless debate. It's just a matter of time before we get hotter temps. See ya.

… I'm done with this pointless debate. …
Heard that before...


It's just a matter of time before we get hotter temps.
No argument here.


See ya.
Surely.

Jesus Christ people... do you not realize we do get 100+ temps here in the plains? Quit telling people it is stupid or move to Phoenix because we're wanting that in the summer.

Someone wanting a certain variation of weather isn't stupid, it's personal preference. If that bothers you to the point where you are going to insult people call their opinions stupid, then perhaps you ought to step away from the keyboard and have a drink or something because there is no reason to debate this. I want a few weeks of 100+ degree temps. You don't. I could tell you to move the Pacific Northwest, but I'm not going to because that is not respectful. I am likely moving to L.A. this coming March, which won't have 100 degree weather at all, doesn't mean I still won't want it. Here in Oklahoma I am used to having it because it is generally something that happens here and I am, as well as others, are entitled to our opinion.

Bottom line is, I want 100+ temps and you and Of Sound Mind(as well as plenty of other posters) don't want it. There is nothing else to say, it will likely happen and that's that. It would be nice to post something on here about that without people like Of Sound Mind calling "that" stupid because he want's lower temps. Whatever. I honestly don't even care because the temps are going to go back up here soon.

After the unbelievably hot and dry summer of 2012, some of us aren't eager for a repeat.

You should have just saved your time by simply writing that I'm a bit stupid for not loving your opinion that Oklahoma summer weather needs lots more 100s every year.

From hearing Jay Leno joke about LA heat from the past, I bet they sometimes get up to a 100 or more in LA:

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/39387278/ns/weather/t/los-angeles-bakes-record-degrees/

After the unbelievably hot summer of 2012, a few of us aren't eager for a repeat.

You should have just saved your time by simply writing that I'm a bit stupid for not loving your opinion that Oklahoma summer weather needs lots more 100s every year. From hearing about Jay Leno joke about the heat from the past, I bet they sometimes get up to a 100 in LA.The highest recorded temperature in downtown Los Angeles is 113 °F (45 °C) on September 27, 2010 and the lowest recorded temperature is 24 °F (−4 °C) on December 22, 1944.

Los Angeles - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles)

Guess it does get that hot. Never really thought much about that.

I've been to LA i nthe summer. It gets pretty freaking hot. Not only do you have the high temps, but it's all concrete and you just don't have the shade trees that we do here to help out. Palms just don't do shade the same ;) But yeah, it can get pretty hot. Sure, it's a "dry" heat, but hot is hot.

I've been to LA i nthe summer. It gets pretty freaking hot. Not only do you have the high temps, but it's all concrete and you just don't have the shade trees that we do here to help out. Palms just don't do shade the same ;) But yeah, it can get pretty hot. Sure, it's a "dry" heat, but hot is hot.yeah.... I actually did some research the past couple of days and found that out lol.... Never realized that; ignorance on my part really.

One thing about LA is there is a vast difference in the temperature and feel close to the beach and just a little bit inland. The San Fernando valley is even hotter and drier and has somewhat of a Phoenix feel to it.

The GFS keeps hinting at a tropical system in the Gulf late next week. It's been a quiet tropical season so far but that could change as we get into July.

Jesus Christ people... do you not realize we do get 100+ temps here in the plains? Quit telling people it is stupid or move to Phoenix because we're wanting that in the summer.

Someone wanting a certain variation of weather isn't stupid, it's personal preference. If that bothers you to the point where you are going to insult people call their opinions stupid, then perhaps you ought to step away from the keyboard and have a drink or something because there is no reason to debate this. I want a few weeks of 100+ degree temps. You don't. I could tell you to move the Pacific Northwest, but I'm not going to because that is not respectful. I am likely moving to L.A. this coming March, which won't have 100 degree weather at all, doesn't mean I still won't want it. Here in Oklahoma I am used to having it because it is generally something that happens here and I am, as well as others, are entitled to our opinion.

Bottom line is, I want 100+ temps and you and Of Sound Mind(as well as plenty of other posters) don't want it. There is nothing else to say, it will likely happen and that's that. It would be nice to post something on here about that without people like Of Sound Mind calling "that" stupid because he want's lower temps. Whatever. I honestly don't even care because the temps are going to go back up here soon.

I also am looking forward to some 100 degree days. I love that time of the year. Hot, dry and usually calm winds. Awesome time to be on my boat at lake Eufaula.

The GFS keeps hinting at a tropical system in the Gulf late next week. It's been a quiet tropical season so far but that could change as we get into July.

I've noticed that, but so far it is 0-3 for tropical system development. We will have to see.

Long term for "ridge of death" watch, so far the classic ridge isn't showing up. A few days into July we do start to get a ridge forming out over the southwest but we look to stay in a northwest flow for a few days after that. We might finally have the ridge build in by mid July, but really nothing concrete yet.

I've noticed that, but so far it is 0-3 for tropical system development. We will have to see.

Long term for "ridge of death" watch, so far the classic ridge isn't showing up. A few days into July we do start to get a ridge forming out over the southwest but we look to stay in a northwest flow for a few days after that. We might finally have the ridge build in by mid July, but really nothing concrete yet.

This may have been posted before, but I am too lazy to search. What is this "ridge of death"?

MD out for SW KS.

This will be our next MCS that sweeps across the state tonight.

EDIT: SVR watch just issued for that area.

I've noticed that, but so far it is 0-3 for tropical system development. We will have to see.

Long term for "ridge of death" watch, so far the classic ridge isn't showing up. A few days into July we do start to get a ridge forming out over the southwest but we look to stay in a northwest flow for a few days after that. We might finally have the ridge build in by mid July, but really nothing concrete yet.

Thank God. The summers of 2011 and 2012 were flat out depressing. Unbearably hot and dry. I think we all have a bit of PTSD from those years.

The storm approaching Stillwater tonight has split in two and weakening. Both parts are now passing around Stillwater. I predict Stillwater will only have sprinkles tonight. Maybe OKC will get somewhat of a gust front out of it as did Stillwater.

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/WUNIDS_map.gif

Those storms died out right before majority of the OKC area. Western sides picked up some breif heavy rain, but that's about it.

Most of Oklahoma now in a slight risk for Saturday.

MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A LOT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF EARLY PERIOD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT DEVELOPMENT COULD BE SLOW ENOUGH THAT UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH COULD COINCIDE WITH PEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION. AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...TOWARD THE OZARKS.

OTHERWISE...ON THE EDGE OF THE REMNANT ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER
AIR...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HEATING
CONTRIBUTES TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF
SIZABLE CAPE AND SHEAR ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...BEFORE THE DRYLINE RETREATS
WESTWARD SATURDAY EVENING.

NAM and GFS both painting classic dryline supercell setup in W OK for Saturday eve.

How are things looking for next Thursday July 3rd for central Oklahoma in the evening time? Planning a get together and was hoping to be able to spend the evening outside and set off a few fireworks

GFS keeps us unsettled pretty much all week. Won't be a total washout, more of MCS waves sweeping across the state.

Wil have to wait until closer to that time to determine the timing of any storms/rain. But the chances are high most of next week.

This article helps explain why Oklahoma City frequently does not get bypassed by heavy storms.
Cities incite thunderstorms, researchers find (http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2007-08/pues-cit080907.php)

MCS forming up in TX PH. This will sweep across the state tonight.

If we get cleared out by late morning tomorrow, then tomorrow evening could be a potentially significant event.

MCS forming up in TX PH. This will sweep across the state tonight.

If we get cleared out by late morning tomorrow, then tomorrow evening could be a potentially significant event.

I think it might be a chat room day tomorrow... Finally.

MCS forming up in TX PH. This will sweep across the state tonight.
If we get cleared out by late morning tomorrow, then tomorrow evening could be a potentially significant event.


This surely assuming they don't encounter more stable air in central Oklahoma and so become unable to regenerate. But they're holding up well, so far, including that skinny broken up line that extends from central Oklahoma on north and out of the state.

Mike Morgan has that significant event mainly in far northern Oklahoma.

The sound of distant thunder in Stillwater has ceased as the skinny storm line quickly fades away before further approach. We'll see next if the much larger storm mass in the west and southwestern part of the state manages to break through.

Outlook for today from SPC...

...ERN NEB...ERN KS THROUGH OK AND THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AREA...

REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST OVER
CNTRL OR ERN KS 12Z SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN
MOIST WARM SECTOR...LIMITING OR DELAYING BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMING. A
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
ONGOING STORMS FROM OK THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN MO WHERE RESIDUAL EML
PLUME RESIDES ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...WARM SECTOR
SHOULD BE CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. AREAS OF DIABATIC HEATING
WILL COMMENCE AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT...AND A SECONDARY VORTICITY
MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ERN/SRN KS INTO NRN
OK AS WELL AS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB. WIND PROFILES WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...BUT THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR ACTIVITY TO EVOLVE INTO
CLUSTER AND LINES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

MCS continues to move across N OK. The severe part is going to be the northern section as it stands right now, reports of 65-70 mph winds with it over the last couple hours. Southern extent is approaching Kingfisher, Watonga and back to the west. We'll have to see how far SE it makes it into the Metro area. For this afternoon/evening we need to watch where the outflow boundary from the MCS ends up. HRRR is showing it being a focal point for storm development later today.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/13/CGPsf/hrrrCGPsf_sfc_radar_014.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/mcd1186.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...ERN KS...WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281626Z - 281800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
ERN KS/WRN MO INTO NE OK. STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 18Z

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY WARMING THIS MORNING UNDER
BROKEN CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN EWD ADVANCING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
N/NE ACROSS NRN OK/ERN KS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID MO VALLEY.
WHILE CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING STRONGER SFC HEATING...MID 60S TO NEAR
70 DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS RESULTED IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J PER KG/ WITH LITTLE
TO NO INHIBITION REMAINING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KT
OVER KS/OK WEAKENS WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MO BUT WILL INCREASE OVER
WRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIFTS NE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS SE KS ALONG THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAKER ECHOS ALSO DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
INTO NE OK AND WRN MO. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. ONE OR
MORE BANDS/CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEFORE EVENTUALLY CONGEALING INTO A QLCS LATER
TODAY ACROSS WRN/CNTRL MO...WHERE STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ONGOING BOWING FEATURE ACROSS NW OK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO TRACK EWD AND MAY PRODUCE PERIODIC SEVERE WIND GUSTS INTO PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NE OK.

..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/28/2014


ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...I CT...OUN...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT:

Details:

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LOGAN...
KINGFISHER...CENTRAL BLAINE...GARFIELD AND WESTERN NOBLE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1200 PM CDT...
AT 1129 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM NEAR BILLINGS TO 4 MILES NORTH OF KINGFISHER TO 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THOMAS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ENID...KINGFISHER...WATONGA...HENNESSEY...CRESCENT ...WAUKOMIS...
GARBER...COVINGTON...DOVER...MARSHALL...BRECKENRID GE...FAIRMONT...
HITCHCOCK...GREENFIELD...LOYAL...DOUGLAS...LOVELL. ..VANCE AIR FORCE
BASE...BISON AND LUCIEN.

Information:

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

Updated Day 1

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NRN OK IS PROGRESSING EWD/SEWD AND HAS
MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK DURING THE MORNING. THE MCS IS
LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PART OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM WRN SD INTO FAR WRN OK...AND AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CENTRAL
OK INTO CENTRAL MO. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THIS REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE
BROADER REGION...BUT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER MAY PERMIT LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.

VISIBLE IMAGERY/RADAR SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE NRN OK MCS AND EXTENDING NEWD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM SERN KS INTO WEST CENTRAL MO WHERE OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS
FIELDS INDICATE CIN IS DIMINISHING. WINDS ALOFT BACK IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SHORT LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS TO
DEVELOP. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NRN OK MCS
AS THE OUTFLOW MOVES SEWD/SWD OVER WRN/CENTRAL OK AND THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DIMINISHING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
HEIGHTS RISE...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW AND ZONES OF
ENHANCED HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR CURRENT STORMS TO INTENSIFY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement

Updated: Sat Jun-28-14 01:13pm CDT
Effective: Sat Jun-28-14 01:13pm CDT
Expires: Sat Jun-28-14 01:45pm CDT

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Observed

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Lincoln; Logan; Oklahoma; Payne

Instructions: Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening weather conditions.

Message summary: ...significant weather advisory for southeastern logan...oklahoma...
Northwestern lincoln and western payne counties until 145 pm cdt...
At 111 pm cdt...strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from 4 miles north of coyle to near warr acres...moving northeast at 30 mph. Hazards include...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 40 mph...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Locations impacted include...
Oklahoma city...edmond...midwest city...stillwater...del city...
Guthrie...the village...warr acres...choctaw...nichols hills...
Spencer...jones...nicoma park...perkins...langston...luther...
Coyle...arcadia...meridian and forest park.

Good to see storms maintaining themselves or better, rather than start to fade away when approaching or having just passed I-35. Edmond, Guthrie and Stillwater can be seen benefiting from it.

http://stillwaterweather.com/images/radar2.gif

HRRR showing supercells in SW OK this evening moving east.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/17/CGPsf/hrrrCGPsf_sfc_radar_008.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1188.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 282021Z - 282145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE CU FIELD OVER SW OK/WRN N TX WAS BECOMING MORE
AGITATED THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES HAS RESULTED IN STRONG INSTABILITY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE W-E ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID OUT BY MORNING
CONVECTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN ACCORDANCE WITH STRONG INSTABILITY
WOULD LEAD TO ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO STRONG WINDS. SLIGHTLY RISING MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. BUT A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BACKED SFC WINDS...A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
MAY EXIST AS WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS RIGHT ON
THE BOUNDARY. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 06/28/2014


ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

Per the MCD, highest tornado threat (overall low) will be with storms along the Outflow Boundary roughly in the I-40 area from the Metro to the west.

Uncle Slayton and PluPan, you can stop your whining now...

8421

With the heat turning up the next 2 days, doesn't look like it will last though. At least not in a constant fashion. Looking at the forecast there will still be plenty of storm chances to help break it all up.

Not seeing triple digits any time soon. 95 would be the hottest, if lucky. Things will cool down in the middle of next week before July 4th.

No "Ridge of Death" yet.

Not seeing triple digits any time soon. 95 would be the hottest, if lucky. Things will cool down in the middle of next week before July 4th.

No "Ridge of Death" yet.

Might see triple digits in parts of the state after the first week of July. However, moisture content in the air is still pretty high so that helps to keep it under control. Of course the draw back is the excessive heat index we'll have to deal with.

Uncle Slayton and PluPan, you can stop your whining now...

8421I'll take two days ;)

That's all.

Showers and storms should develop from SW to NE late this afternoon into the evening across NW OK. Eventually the development will move south and east overnight and into tomorrow.

PDS severe thunderstorm watch issued for Chicago area and surrounding.

Showers really dying out over W OK. Looks like they may refire along cool front later today into tonight. The front has already passed C OK - so rain chances are low again. Models handled this front terribly with exception over NE and IA.

Showers really dying out over W OK. Looks like they may refire along cool front later today into tonight. The front has already passed C OK - so rain chances are low again. Models handled this front terribly with exception over NE and IA.

Does that have anything to do with the fact that we're really more typically dealing with heat ridges of doom and a more summerlike pattern now that we're in July, as opposed to the more springlike scenario this front introduced?

Yea it is beginning to lean that way. Looks like we have a small ridge of death shaping up for next week - no 100+, but mid to upper 90s creeping in.

GFS keeping hope for rain tonight over southern half of OK - then tries to bring a wave from W OK to S OK tomorrow eve. And one final blow on Independence day over main body of state.

Awesome rains for the TX panhandle right now.

Looks like rain should stay well south of I-40 most of the day. Some may try to sneak north of it in the western half of OK. Will just have to watch radar for outflow waves sparking new showers and such.