Slight Risk tomorrow over the NW 1/3rd of Oklahoma. NW OK is under a 15% hatched area.

...TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR THE DRYLINE...WITH FAVORABLE
CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. CAPPING WILL BE ERASED DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SOMEWHAT
HIGH-BASED...SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW. THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING EVEN AS CAPPING INCREASES...AIDED BY THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
JET.

Slight Risk today is roughly west of a line from Ponca City - Weatherford - Altus. Area includes 5% tornado area, 15% wind, and 15% hail area - far NW OK is also hatched for very large hail.

...WRN KS THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN TX...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE IN THIS
REGION AS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERSPREAD MOIST AXIS. WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE. WIND PROFILES WILL
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM
40-45 KT LIKELY. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN KS.

Threat remains today. Big hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes possibles.

...WRN PARTS OF OK/TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

STRENGTHENING DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS OWING TO STRONG HEATING WITHIN
THE DRY AIR WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM THROUGH THE PEAK
OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS
SUCH...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN STORM INITIATION WITH A RISK
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO.

Slight risk tomorrow expanded through W OK.


...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE THE EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODEST LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES...IT APPEARS THAT A LEAST
A CONDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED SEVERE RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONTAL SEGMENT THAT WILL
GENERALLY STALL IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION EARLY IN THE
DAY. ESPECIALLY GIVEN STRONG HEATING NEAR/WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW/DRYLINE...THE RELATIVELY GREATEST /ALBEIT STILL UNCERTAIN/
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE NEAR A SURFACE
TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK. AMPLE
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WITHIN THE NEARBY WARM SECTOR WITH
UPWARDS OF 3500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE POSSIBLE BY PEAK HEATING...WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT /MAXIMIZED NEAR THE FRONTAL
ZONE/ FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED THE DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST...OTHER STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF WEST/SOUTHWEST TX WITHIN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BUT MODESTLY FORCED/WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME.

Most of the development in the PH has collapsed so far.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0999.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND SWRN KS / ERN OK AND NERN TX PANHANDLES
/ NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 150055Z - 150230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
W-CNTRL AND SWRN KS. A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT...ALBEIT LOWER
PROBABILITY...EXISTS OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF OK AND THE NERN TX
PANHANDLE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MID-LEVEL
CONVECTION OVER SERN CO INTO FAR NERN NM WHICH IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE TO A BAND OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT VIA THE CO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE MID-LEVEL ASCENT/CONVECTION IS LOCATED
OVERTOP A VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE W OF A RETREATING
DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM HUTCHINSON COUNTY TX NWD AND EQUIDISTANT
BETWEEN GCK AND DDC. AS THE CO SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EWD INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...EXPECTING THE LOBE OF ASCENT/ONSET
OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE IN THE 02-03Z
PERIOD. ONCE THIS OCCURS...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ON
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED BASIS AND FAVORABLY TIME WITH A RAPID INCREASE
IN A SLY LLJ /50+ KT/ INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN KS BY MID-EVENING.
THOUGH STORM DEVELOPMENT IS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY...AN ATTENDANT
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE WIND GUST
RISK WOULD ENSUE IF STORMS MATURE AND ARE SUSTAINED.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 06/15/2014

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1004.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SW/S-CNTRL KS...N OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 296 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0296.html)...297 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0297.html)...

VALID 150537Z - 150700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
296...297...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WITH WW 296 SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z...SE CORNER OF WW
MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED OR LOCALLY EXTENDED. PROBABILITY OF WW
ISSUANCE INTO N OK REMAINS AT 60 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO WW 297...THE TAIL-END OF THE EXTENSIVE QLCS WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL. THE GUST FRONT HAS SURGED 10-20 NM AHEAD OF THE HIGH
REFLECTIVITY CORES PER DDC RADAR OVER SW KS. BUT ON THE PERIPHERY OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS HIGH PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE GUST FRONT GIVEN STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES IN ITS WAKE. ROBUST MLCIN MAY ULTIMATELY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT INTO OK.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/15/2014

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0299_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 130 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ENID
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 296 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0296.html)...WW 297 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0297.html)...WW 298 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0298.html)...

DISCUSSION...SRN END OF CNTRL KS SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING
SLIGHTLY SWD WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD GIVEN CURRENT
AND EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC/WIND ENVIRONMENTS. DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND
STRENGTH OF MEAN LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DMGG
WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SVR HAIL DESPITE FACT THAT SYSTEM GUST FRONT
LIKELY WILL REMAIN 10-15 MILES AHEAD OF STRONGEST STORM CORES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29040.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Low (10%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Low (<2%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Mod (40%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Mod (30%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


Low (20%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Low (10%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (70%)

Slight Risk today NC and NE OK.

...SWRN MO INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THE SRN EXTENSION OF A NOCTURNAL MCS REMAINS IN PROGRESS AS OF MID
MORNING OVER NRN/WRN PARTS OF AR INTO ERN OK WHILE A TRAILING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS REINFORCED THE SYNOPTIC FRONT OVER NRN INTO WRN
OK. THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING SAMPLED A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E.
LOWEST-100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIO OF 15 G PER KG/ SURMOUNTED BY A
700-500-MB LAPSE RATE OF 9 C/KM WHICH WILL YIELD A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG.

GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND THE WEAKENING
SYNOPTIC FRONT...SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION AND SUSTENANCE
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER PARTS
OF WRN/SWRN TX. OTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT /LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 16/03Z OVER PARTS OF OK INTO SWRN MO
ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ. LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS ROOTED
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING OVER OK INTO SRN KS.

Was going to ask if you if you ever sleep, venture, but noticed you had almost a whole 12 hours between postings today, lol... Haven't said this, but thanks for what you do here, better info than intellicast and certainly weather.com...

NWS now showing Central Oklahoma in an area with a risk of Severe Storms this evening....

I saw that next week we might be seeing a tropical-like system, is this still the case?

Was going to ask if you if you ever sleep, venture, but noticed you had almost a whole 12 hours between postings today, lol... Haven't said this, but thanks for what you do here, better info than intellicast and certainly weather.com...

Putting in some overtime at work as well right now to help pay the bills. Lol. You are welcome of course.

Slight risk today for central to northeast Oklahoma. Main risks big hail and wind... If anything forms. 5% tornado area as well north of I 40 but nothing significant.

I saw that next week we might be seeing a tropical-like system, is this still the case?

Probably so, but not real heavy. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute has Oklahoma City forecast to get 1.31" of rain Thursday night and Friday morning.

A look at the total number of tornado warnings issued so far this year by each U.S. National Weather Service forecast office as of May 30.

https://scontent-b-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/t1.0-9/10398070_679409042131555_8171288397955658555_n.jpg

I saw that next week we might be seeing a tropical-like system, is this still the case?

It appears most models have backed away from any tropical systems developing this week. The NAVGEM is one of the hold outs of a weak low developing in the Eastern Gulf and then just meander around in the Central Gulf.

Rain chances on Thurs/Fri still are there but aren't tropical related.

Wed-Fri this week looks interesting. Mostly Thurs. and Fri. for main body of OK.

Looking long-range into the following week. Looks like we may slip into another pattern of MCS's and good rain chances.

A little off-topic but Pilger, Nebraska just got whacked by two tornadoes :(

Instagram (http://instagram.com/p/pUeOejlfl8/)

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/special/20140616/animation_tor_20140616.gif

Been watching that. Amazing! Thanks for the post.

A look at the total number of tornado warnings issued so far this year by each U.S. National Weather Service forecast office as of May 30.

https://scontent-b-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/t1.0-9/10398070_679409042131555_8171288397955658555_n.jpg
I'm perfectly fine with a down year for tornados here in Oklahoma. Crazy that north central California has seen more warnings than our whole state!

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S5

Looking at through the rest of the month on the GFS a nice sight...no death ridge setting up. Fairly active pattern will remain with isolated changes of storms every so often and the occasional storm complex marching through. Might have a ridge build in by the first week of July, but even then it doesn't look to be substantial yet.

Hard to pin point exact storm chances per day since there will be a lot of people in one area staying sunny and dry while another area will be dodging golf balls from the sky. Instability really doesn't look like an issue at all either...it'll come down to have the proper triggers and place and breaking the cap. Next Tuesday could be interesting and then maybe some heavy rain next Thurs/Friday (not this week).

Day 1 has a slight risk today over Western OK for very large hail.

...WRN KS SWD THROUGH OK/TX PANHANDLES AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TX...
MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED INVOF THE DRY LINE
EXTENDING SWD FROM WRN KS THROUGH THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...WEST TX TO
THE TX BIG BEND REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO
1.25-1.5 INCHES AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30-40 KT...THOUGH VALUES UP TO 45 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WEST TX. ASCENT ALONG
THE DRY LINE AND A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION DURING
PEAK HEATING SUGGEST TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FORM WRN KS SWD THROUGH
WEST AND SOUTHWEST TX. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
OF THE STORMS IN ADDITION TO A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

Day 2 Slight Risk in NW OK

...KS SWD INTO WRN TX...
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT DURING THE DAY ACROSS KS WITH
A DRYLINE INTO WRN TX. HEATING AND SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE INSTABILITY LEVELS WITH LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL FAVOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND WEAKLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY OVER KS. SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT INTO
WRN TX...WITH LESS ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES EXPECTED.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0323_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INCLUDING MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
WESTERN TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0321.html)...WW 322 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0322.html)...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24020.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Low (10%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Low (<2%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Mod (30%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Low (10%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


Mod (30%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (30%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


Mod (60%)

Here is the associated MCD that I missed...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1063.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLE...TX S PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181919Z - 182015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ONE OR MORE WATCHES POSSIBLY NEEDED TO COVER THE
THREAT. PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SVR HAIL WITH A SECONDARY
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CU ACROSS SW
KS AND ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER E OF CVS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MAY BE OBSCURING SOME CU AROUND AMA AS WELL. DIURNAL HEATING
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SURFACE
ANALYSIS REVEALS A DUAL DRYLINE STRUCTURE WITH THE LEADING DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM SW KS SSWWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND TX S
PLAINS. THE SECONDARY DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM A LOW IN SE CO ACROSS
FAR WRN NM. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE LEADING
DRYLINE BUT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SECONDARY DRYLINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NE NM MOVING INTO SW KS.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J PER KG ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING DRYLINE. LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW IS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING
MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW AROUND 20 KT. THE RESULT IS A WEAKLY SHEARED
PROFILE. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. SOME DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ONE OR
MORE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/18/2014

*with scattered earthquakes possible.

Slight Risk today is north of a line from Erick to Cordell and then Northwest of a line from Cordell to Geary to Dover to Perry to Ponca City.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY WITH THE RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

...ROCKIES INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER TROUGHING...NOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AND ROCKIES...WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ROUNDING ITS BASE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA. TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILTED FEATURE...MODEST
CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE LOWER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THIS PROBABLY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...ALONG SURFACE
TROUGHING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THE SURFACE TROUGH LIKELY WILL BE PRECEDED BY CONSIDERABLE EARLY
PERIOD CONVECTION...AND REMNANT OUTFLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION AND FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER COMPLICATING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL...MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONGER SOUTHERLY 850 MB
FLOW /ON THE 30 KT/ AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AT THE OUTSET OF THE
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF BECOMING INCREASINGLY MODEST...WITH WARM ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR EXPECTED TO BECOME CONFINED TO A PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE /1500 TO 3000 J PER KG/ IS
EXPECTED IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD INCLUDE SEVERAL GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
BY LATE AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL.

Strong storm moving through southern Ellis and northern Roger Mills counties. Borderline severe right now if hail size is near to verifying (estimates at 1.2"). Movement is generally East to NE.

This pattern rocks.

All this rain and barely putting a dent in our drought situation ...

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OK

All this rain and barely putting a dent in our drought situation ...

United States Drought Monitor > Home > State Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OK)

I would call that significant improvement. Last month, the entire western third of the state was all in D4 drought.

Slight Risk gone for today thanks to the morning showers and storms.

Darn it...

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S5

Slight risk is probably coming back. MCD up for a watch for western OK.

No wonder. Storms have fired up in the northwest.

The rain monster to the west is slowly moving through the western metro now. 2-3 inches of rain has fell for a few areas.

trending southward though, looking at the radar i'm not hopeful for Lake Hefner :(

Unfortunately it looks like this is going to miss the main body of the metro area. Lake Hefner has improved a lot but there is still more to go. Hopefully we can get it before the ridge of death sets in.

Is this thing going to make Norman?
I noticed on the radar that it looks like a rotating MCS….. Is that accurate?

Unfortunately it looks like this is going to miss the main body of the metro area. Lake Hefner has improved a lot but there is still more to go. Hopefully we can get it before the ridge of death sets in.
Ah, what a pity that Oklahoma City can really sometimes get bypassed by heavy storms.

Looks like all next week will be rainy. YAY! :D

I'll let the other parts of the state have the flash flooding, thanks.

So next week will be a soaker?

Hangin in there, hoping for the ridge of death. C'mon, triple digits. It's *summer*, fgs!

Hangin in there, hoping for the ridge of death. C'mon, triple digits. It's *summer*, fgs!

Not in the cards for now. Try Arizona. :-)

Blessed Solstice, sun watchers. :)

Looks like storms forming in the west. Any news?

Hangin in there, hoping for the ridge of death. C'mon, triple digits. It's *summer*, fgs!

Were you not around here in summer of 2012 when everyone got their ridge of death? The most I want is a standard Oklahoma summer. So far, so good, since the 100s haven't returned already too soon and it's not bone dry. But wait for the 4th of July.

Slight Risk through tonight for the NW 1/4th of Oklahoma.

...PLAINS AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NW MN TO NE CO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SWD/SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SUBTLE SPEED
MAXIMA PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING MCS OVER THE MID MO VALLEY...MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NEB SWWD ACROSS KS TO THE TX
PANHANDLE. WLY MID-UPPER FLOW AND WEAK BUT VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7-8 C/KM WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS...WHILE CELL MERGERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS BY THIS EVENING. THE MOST CONCENTRATED RISK
AREA FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING INVOF SW KS...WHILE
SOME RISK WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS/NW OK.

Hangin in there, hoping for the ridge of death. C'mon, triple digits. It's *summer*, fgs!

Don't say that in a bar in the country that is frequently visited by farmers. They probably don't take to kindly to drought lovers. lol

Don't say that in a bar in the country that is frequently visited by farmers. They probably don't take to kindly to drought lovers. lol

I suspect he's just trying to get our dander up, but what a seriously stupid thing to say.

I hope this summer is like last year where there is ample rainfall to keep things green all summer long without a real "ridge of death."

Watch up for nw OK.

Not in the cards for now. Try Arizona. :-)

Too dry...south central/southeast TX was great last week. Around Lagrange and points south. 90 degrees by around 10 am, then on the coast, about 88-ish, with 60+ humidity.

We were working for an afternoon to restore an old family cemetery that dates from the 1870s in SE TX and it was almost "fainting hot".

Gulf waters were around 87 degrees. Nothing at all bad about any of that except I wasn't retired and living near the beach. :) I've been down there before when the waters were around 91 and that was almost too hot to swim in. Almost. ;)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1124.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0819 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL KANSAS...NWRN OK...THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...NERN NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0346.html)...347 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0347.html)...

VALID 230119Z - 230245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
346...347...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE CONTINUED EVOLUTION OF AN
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY
THE RISK FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 03-06Z. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE
CURRENTLY SCHEDULED 03Z EXPIRATION OF WWS 346 AND 347.

DISCUSSION...MERGING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO NEW
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR GARDEN CITY...SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE ELKHART AREA. STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FOCUSED ALONG THE GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE PROMINENT COLD
POOL SURGING OUT OF THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...AS
IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD/SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH APPEARS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE PRE-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR. THIS PROCESS MAY BE AIDED BY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFICATION ABOVE THE DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH MAY
FOCUS THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

..KERR.. 06/23/2014

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0349_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF
OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF BORGER TEXAS TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF ENID
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 346 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0346.html)...WW 347 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0347.html)...WW 348 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0348.html)...

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF STG-SVR TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE POSING THREAT MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WIND...AS
THEY MOVE OUT OF EXPIRING WW 347...MERGE...AND CROSS MORE OF TX
PANHANDLE AND NRN/WRN OK OVERNIGHT. BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY MCS
ACTIVITY...ISOLATED/PERSISTENT/HP SUPERCELL MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN
TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER LARGE HAIL AND SVR GUSTS...WITH
A TORNADO STILL POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32030.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Low (20%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Low (5%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Mod (60%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Low (10%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


Mod (30%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (30%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (90%)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0350_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1150 PM
UNTIL 700 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST OF
LUBBOCK TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 348 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0348.html)...WW 349 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0349.html)...

DISCUSSION...SVR MCS WITH HISTORY OF SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO PROCEED SSEWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS SOUTH
PLAINS AND NW TX...WITH SOME LATERAL EXPANSION/PROPAGATION PSBL INTO
AREAS NEAR I-44 AND W OF I-27. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS PSBL
INVOF GUST FRONT INTERSECTIONS BETWEEN THIS ACTIVITY AND INITIALLY
NON-SVR LINE MOVING EWD FROM NM. MAIN MCS...CAUSING ISALLOBARIC
PERTURBATIONS TO NEAR 9 MB PER 2 HRS IN ITS WAKE...WILL CONTINUE TO
FORWARD-PROPAGATE WITH STG FORCED ASCENT OF FAVORABLY MOIST/30-35 KT
SLY LLJ PARCELS. EXPECT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW EXCEEDING 60 KT JUST
ABOVE SFC.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33035.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Low (10%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Low (<2%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


High (70%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Mod (50%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


Mod (30%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (30%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (90%)

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
128 am cdt mon jun 23 2014


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Central blaine county in northwest oklahoma...
Southwestern kingfisher county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern canadian county in central oklahoma...


* until 215 am cdt


* at 128 am cdt...a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles east of
fay...moving east at 30 mph.


Hazard...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.


Source...radar indicated.


Impact...hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile
homes...roofs and outbuildings.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1127.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO TX SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST
TX...AND WRN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0349.html)...350 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0350.html)...

VALID 230723Z - 230900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
349...350...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS /THROUGH 08-10Z/. A NEW WW SOUTH OF WW
350 DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...AS RELATIVE OVERNIGHT
COOLING OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER INCREASE INHIBITION PER
MODIFIED 00Z MAF SOUNDING.

DISCUSSION...EVOLUTION OF EARLY OVERNIGHT IR SATELLITE AND MOSAIC
RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SHOWED A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
SSEWD...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...NORTHWEST
TX...AND SWRN/PORTION OF CENTRAL OK. TRENDS IN 7 KM AND 9 KM CAPPI
AND GOES-R OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCT INDICATED THE MORE PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS SINCE AT LEAST 0530Z HAVE BEEN FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
INTO WRN OK...WITH FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY AT 35-40 KT
TOWARD THE SSE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 08-09Z TO
PERHAPS 10Z...GIVEN AN INFLUX OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG A 30-35
KT SSWLY LLJ IMPINGING ON THE LEADING EDGE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO WW 350.

FARTHER ENE...THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
WAS TRACKING SEWD AT 30 KT...THOUGH RADAR IMAGERY HAD INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY IN DEWEY/BLAINE COUNTIES OK BETWEEN
0540-06Z AT THE INTERSECTION OF TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SWRN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OK.

..PETERS.. 06/23/2014

I suspect he's just trying to get our dander up, but what a seriously stupid thing to say.How is that stupid? I'd take the 100+ temps over 80 degree weather any day. I do have to admit, I am enjoying the lush vegetation, but I also enjoy heat as well.

What do our rain chances look like for the rest of this week? any more good soaking rains like we had last night?

How is that stupid? I'd take the 100+ temps over 80 degree weather any day.
That's stupid.

Hope we get more rain…..
Once again Norman missed out compared to OKC.
At 6.9 inches of rain Norman’s 90 day rain total is significantly behind most of the OKC which is 11.8 to 14.6…….
Norman did get .58 and that was enough rain to water in my fertilizer.




http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/90_day_rainfall_accumulation/rainfall