http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0238_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 238
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 705 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 10 MILES NORTH OF POTEAU
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 237 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0237.html)...

DISCUSSION...A BOWING LINE OF STORMS NOW CROSSING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME...AS IT PROGRESSES
THROUGH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. GIVEN FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED/ EWD-PROPAGATING STORMS...EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO/ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Low (10%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Low (<2%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


Mod (30%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Low (20%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


Mod (30%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Low (20%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (80%)

Reloading and doing it again tonight.

...CO/NM/KS/OK...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SEVERAL
HOURS OF DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF EASTERN CO INTO EASTERN NM.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED/BACKED
DUE TO THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PROMOTING SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS DURING THE EVENING
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE...BEFORE UPSCALE
GROWTH OCCURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REPEAT THE EVOLUTION OF LAST
NIGHT...WITH A SEVERE MCS POSSIBLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK OVERNIGHT.

Recipe for round 2 is already in place. Sun is out cooking up the steam bath from this morning. Going to be very unstable across much of OK later this eve.

Do you think we will get some good storms going here in central Oklahoma before the overnight stuff rolls through?

Early MD is out:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0858.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN KS...NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061829Z - 062100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY WARRANT WW
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SFC PATTERN IS ANALYZED OVER THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF MULTIPLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DURING PRECEDING DAYS.
RESIDUAL CONFLUENCE AXES ARE ANALYZED WITH WNW-ESE ORIENTATIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL AND SWRN KS...WITH THE SRN-MOST OF THESE
FEATURES SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR A BAND OF DEEPER CONVECTION FROM
GRANT COUNTY TO COMANCHE COUNTY KS. OTHER MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARIES
COVER THE AREA...WHERE ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE PROCESSING OF POTENTIAL
BUOYANCY IS LIKELY MITIGATING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE -- E.G. AROUND 8 C/KM IN THE
H7-H5 LAYER PER DDC 12Z RAOB -- AMIDST MODESTLY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

AS SUCH...THERE IS STILL CONCERN FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 12-HOUR REDUCTIONS OF H7
CAPPING PER DDC AND OUN RAOBS...AND ASCENT POSSIBLY RELATED TO
HIGH-LEVEL TRANSVERSE BANDING NOTED IN CLOUD STRUCTURES EMERGING
OVER THE SRN PLAINS/GEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT AT THE NOSE OF AN UPPER
JET. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN 55-65 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
HOWEVER...IF SFC CONDITIONS MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY OWING TO POCKETS OF
INSOLATION AND/OR LOCALIZED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH OCCURS...DMGG
WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. REGARDLESS...THERE STILL REMAINS
LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
OWING TO THE EARLIER OVERTURNING AND LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2014



Difficult forecast with all of the leftover boundaries from this morning's convection. There are pretty much stationary outflow boundaries stalled out over much of the SC Plains that may or may not have impacts on additional development late this afternoon.

Hrrr hints at a couple isolated super cells early this evening over northwest into central Oklahoma before the main mcs catches it. With so many boundaries around I wouldn't rule out something like last night of a few quick spin ups.

Tornado watch for TX PH coming.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0863.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 062023Z - 062130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES IS INCREASING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO
WATCH IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS S OF STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM
NRN NM TO NEAR/E OF AMARILLO IS MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE...AND
HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF NWD RETREAT. SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM WILL ADVANCE EWD ONTO THE PLAINS. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL FOSTER A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR/N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DMGG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2014

This is the boundary in question:


http://i57.tinypic.com/10qykvm.png

Is there any concern about conditions becoming more favorable for tornadoes in W and C OK?

And so the flash flood watch in effect for most of the northern 3/4 of Oklahoma until 7 pm Sunday. Judging from development on the radar, it looks like at least two waves of rain tonight coming from CO, KS and NE. Also tornado watch out for the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.

Flash Flood Watch

Updated: Fri Jun-06-14 02:44pm CDT
Effective: Fri Jun-06-14 02:44pm CDT
Expires: Sun Jun-08-14 07:00pm CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Possible

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Beckham; Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Cleveland; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harper; Hughes; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Major; McClain; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Wash ita; Woods; Woodward

Instructions: Monitor weather forecasts and information. Make plans to get to higher ground if flooding happens...and never drive your vehicle into water over roadways. Remember...turn around don`t drown!

Message summary: ...flash flood watch through sunday evening...
.scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day...along with overnight storm complexes that are expected to bring heavy rain to parts of northern...western...and central oklahoma. Some areas have already received heavy rainfall over the last few days...and additional heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding where the ground is already saturated.
...flash flood watch in effect through sunday evening...
The national weather service in norman has issued a
* flash flood watch for portions of central oklahoma...east central oklahoma...northern oklahoma...northwest oklahoma...
Southwest oklahoma and western oklahoma...including the following areas...in central oklahoma...canadian...cleveland...
Grady...kingfisher...lincoln...logan...mcclain...o klahoma...
Payne and pottawatomie. In east central oklahoma...hughes and seminole. In northern oklahoma...garfield...grant...kay and noble. In northwest oklahoma...alfalfa...blaine...dewey...
Ellis...harper...major...woods and woodward. In southwest oklahoma...caddo...greer and kiowa. In western oklahoma...
Beckham...custer...roger mills and wash ita.
* through sunday evening
* in addition to scattered afternoon storms...repetitive overnight storm complexes are expected tonight and tomorrow night...resulting in heavy rainfall across portions of northern...central...and western oklahoma. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches...with locally higher amounts...will be possible from tonight through sunday evening. Heavy rainfall and excessive runoff may lead to areas of flooding and flash flooding.

Looks like TX PH, near the OK PH, is about to go.

Is there any concern about conditions becoming more favorable for tornadoes in W and C OK?

Mesonet analysis shows the sig tor index increasing along the boundary highlighted above.

Mesonet analysis shows the sig tor index increasing along the boundary highlighted above.

Isnt this boundary more towards SW Oklahoma and mostly in the Texas panhandle? Are the storms going to form on this boundary and then move NE or E towards central Oklahoma with tornados possible with them as they move into the metro?

TOR watch up for SW KS now.

Towers trying to go up in TX PH right now. Will probably break through as sunset approaches.

W OK is very unstable, C OK is semi unstable, and E OK is stable.

SE winds are flying into this boundary lifting north over W OK and TX panhandle. Will probably see favorable tornado environment shortly after sunset.

Supercells exploding all over TX PH.

Going to have to start watching the outflow boundary in NW OK, echos trying to go up there, storms in this area will be susceptible to rotation especially after first coming up. And a window just after sunset will increase this likelihood.

Is there much of a tornado risk for the OKC metro with this or does it look like mostly a NW Oklahoma thing?

Tornado risk lower in C OK, but damaging wind threat is high.

Will have to watch for rotation on leading edge of storms of squall line, too.

Storms merging and getting bigger and bigger ...

https://scontent-a-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfa1/t1.0-9/1907690_10204077112987357_9111639423388078085_n.jp g

It's going to be a rough evening!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0249_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 805 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 241 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0241.html)...WW 242 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0242.html)...WW
243 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0243.html)...WW 244 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0244.html)...WW 245 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0245.html)...WW 247 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0247.html)...WW 248 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0248.html)...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...AND OTHERS EXPECTED
TO FORM SHORTLY IN NW OK...EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY
EWD...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND
TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL BE PROMOTED BY WAA ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT
REGION OF STRENGTHENING...MOIST...SLY LLJ. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO
A COMPLEX MCS CONTAINING LEWPS/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF HIGH
WIND/HAIL AND SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES LATER TNGT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Mod (40%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Mod (30%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


High (70%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Mod (40%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


Mod (60%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Mod (30%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (>95%)

TOR watch NW 1/3rd of OK.

Looks like flash flooding is main threat at the moment as these storm merge together and eventually become a squall line.

Upgrade to Moderate Risk

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...NW
OK...S-CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST STATES THIS EVENING.

...GREAT PLAINS...
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN KS
APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING INTO A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS. THIS MCS SHOULD EVOLVE EWD THIS EVENING AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL TX INTO WRN OK. DOWNSTREAM
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON A RESIDUAL E/W-ORIENTED FRONT
NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER...ALONG THE 700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT NOTED BY
12 DEG C IN 00Z OUN RAOB VERSUS 8 DEG C IN 00Z LMN RAOB. ONGOING
RISKS OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN
STRONG BUOYANCY AND AN ELONGATED HODOGRAPH SAMPLED BY 00Z AMA RAOB.
THESE RISKS WILL LARGELY TRANSITION TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE COLD
POOL STRENGTHENS. WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND
DOWNSTREAM PLUME OF 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AMIDST 35-40
KT 500 MB WLYS...BOWING STRUCTURES SHOULD DEVELOP CAPABLE OF INTENSE
WIND GUSTS.

SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WITH LINES OF STORMS
FROM S-CNTRL NEB TO NWRN KS THAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE E/SEWD TONIGHT.

Storm going up in Woodward county is rotating.

All 3 storms in NW OK are spinning. Strong rotation between Buffalo and Fort Supply.

Guys, I heard a forecast for tomorrow and I think what I heard for OKC was basically a carbon copy of today. Overnight storms maybe into the morning which will create conditions that would delay evening storms until later Sat night and overnight, wash and repeat for Sunday, maybe Monday. Is that basically how you guys see it? Why this cycle?

Stalled out front that just has these little lows traveling across it in pieces of energy.

This will be wave after wave of storms. The timing is impossible to guess due to each wave leaving stable air behind it, that becomes rapidly unstable if sunshine heating (likely) occurs.

Stalled out front that just has these little lows traveling across it in pieces of energy.

This will be wave after wave of storms. The timing is impossible to guess due to each wave leaving stable air behind it, that becomes rapidly unstable if sunshine heating (likely) occurs.

Unless, the state is getting well fixed for a good, overall soaking, you gotta be positioned just right under all those clouds to get something decent. That squall line at mid morning only brought .18" for me in Stillwater. Interesting, though, the map above on post #104 shows Stillwater about in the max bulleye for 8.5".

Also interesting how long time retired KFOR weatherman, Jim Williams, thinks Mike Morgan is the only TV weatherman, who has his act together.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/mcd0872.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 070355Z - 070600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF OK LATER TONIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS LIKELY BEFORE 5Z.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OUT OF THE TX
PANHANDLE AND INTO WRN OK. WIDESPREAD 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
MEASURED WITH THESE CELLS...WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS EARLIER ON.

THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING...AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE
RELATIVELY WARM/DRY PROFILES ALOFT AROUND 700 MB...WITH THE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS SRN OK INTO TX. HOWEVER...A
INSTABILITY/THETA-E AXIS EXTENDS FROM NWRN ACROSS CNTRL AND SERN OK
WHERE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LIE. WITH A STRONG COLD POOL BEHIND THE
NWRN OK ACTIVITY...THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE IN AN
E/SE DIRECTION WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 06/07/2014

New Watch

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 251 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC015-017-019-027-031-033-035-037-049-051-063-067-081-083-087-
091-097-099-101-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-125-131-133-137-
141-143-145-147-071000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0251.140607T0425Z-140607T1000Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CADDO CANADIAN CARTER
CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON
CRAIG CREEK GARVIN
GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON
LINCOLN LOGAN MAYES
MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MURRAY
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE
PAWNEE PAYNE PONTOTOC
POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE
STEPHENS TILLMAN TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON


ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0251_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1125 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF FORT SILL OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTH OF BARTLESVILLE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 247 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0247.html)...WW 248 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0248.html)...WW
249 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0249.html)...WW 250 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0250.html)...

DISCUSSION...WRN OK SQLN WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
BOWS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD THROUGH EARLY
SAT. STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY TEND TO BUILD SLIGHTLY S OF E WITH TIME
AS SQLN FURTHER ENCOUNTERS THETA-E GRADIENT/OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STALLED ROUGHLY WNW-ESE FROM W CNTRL TO S CNTRL OK. UPLIFT IN EXIT
REGION OF 30-35 KT SLY LLJ SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH FAIRLY HIGH PW /AOA 1.25 IN/ AUGMENTING RISK FOR
DMGG SFC GUSTS. ALSO...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.

Tornadoes


Probability of 2 or more tornadoes


Low (20%)



Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes


Low (<2%)



Wind


Probability of 10 or more severe wind events


High (80%)



Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots


Mod (30%)



Hail


Probability of 10 or more severe hail events


Mod (30%)



Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches


Low (10%)



Combined Severe Hail/Wind


Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events


High (>95%)

Should I go to sleep or go ahead and wait until these pass?

Should I go to sleep or go ahead and wait until these pass?

If you have things secured, you should be fine. They are still about an hour out.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1232 am cdt sat jun 7 2014


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Eastern kingfisher county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern grady county in central oklahoma...
Northern caddo county in southwest oklahoma...
Canadian county in central oklahoma...
Western logan county in central oklahoma...


* until 115 am cdt


* at 1231 am cdt...severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles west of marshall to 5 miles west of calumet
to near lookeba to 4 miles southwest of fort cobb...moving east at
40 mph.


Hazard...60 mph wind gusts.


Source...radar indicated.


Impact...expect wind damage to roofs...siding and trees.


* locations impacted include...
Western oklahoma city...el reno...chickasha...anadarko...
Kingfisher...yukon...mustang...tuttle...piedmont.. .union city...
Minco...crescent...okarche...cashion...binger...fo rt cobb...
Verden...calumet...dover and amber.

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
110 am cdt sat jun 7 2014


the national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northwestern lincoln county in central oklahoma...
Payne county in central oklahoma...
Mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
Grady county in central oklahoma...
Cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Southeastern logan county in central oklahoma...


* until 200 am cdt


* at 110 am cdt...severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southwest of lake carl blackwell to 7 miles
southeast of cedar valley to near oklahoma city to 3 miles north of
amber to 3 miles northeast of chickasha to 4 miles west of
agawam...moving east at 40 mph.


Hazard...60 mph wind gusts.


Source...radar indicated.


Impact...expect damage to roofs...siding and trees.


* locations impacted include...
Oklahoma city...norman...edmond...moore...midwest city...
Stillwater...del city...chickasha...guthrie...cushing...
Newcastle...blanchard...purcell...yukon...bethany. ..mustang...
Choctaw...warr acres...the village and noble.

You can see the gust front on the radar, I think.

Another half inch you think, venture?

is... is that it?

is... is that it?

Agreed...I almost brought my wife's car in.

Air just wasn't as unstable here in C OK. W OK was cooking all day, C OK only cooked for about 5-6 hours before sunset.

I would not be surprised if they let the watches expire without issuing new ones in E OK. It is even more stable over there.

Tomorrow things should become pretty unstable. Also the front continues to sag further south.

Agreed...I almost brought my wife's car in.I DID bring my car in, my dads car in, and my stepmothers car in..... after 5 minutes of moving stuff...

for a rain shower. :p

OKC Airport gusted to 87 (!) mph last night for two observations. Assuming that isn't in error, it just goes to show how localized these downbursts can really be. Or perhaps there was a weak embedded spin-up.

Never a bad thing when we get lots of rain. Hope to see more severe storms today.

For today slight risk remains, but threat will probably be more isolated.

14Z HRRR hints are new storm development over the next 2-3 hours roughly along/south of I-40. Moving that stuff out of state by 9PM. Then another rough of supercells in NM/TX moving east into SW OK around that time. With a possible complex moving through the Southern Half of OK after Midnight.

15Z RAP has similar line of showers/storms forming soon over southern half of the state. Then new development around midnight over the TX PH into Central OK.

The 12Z NAM was a slight variation of those two models as well, so all 3 are slightly different because we can't have a straight forward answer for today. LOL The more baking outside the higher the risk for severe weather. CU redevelopment already well underway over the SW quarter of the state, but some higher clouds from The Sayre area north into NW OK should keep risks low in that area for anything too crazy.

Storms popping over the SW quarter of the state. Strongest so far is in Caddo County moving ENE. Small hail possible with that. Others are popping up NW of that storm and additional development behind an outflow boundary around Lawton and the mountains.

Slight Risk tomorrow for all but NE OK.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...

CORRECTED GEOGRAPHIC HEADER FOR THE LAST PARAGRAPH.

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
SUNDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE LATTER STORMS.

...SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-ZONAL...LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY SUNDAY WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES THROUGH DAY 2. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW
ENTERING WA/ORE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TRACKS SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES AS THE WA/ORE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES SEWD...WHILE SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES TRACK EWD ACROSS THIS
REGION. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
AND CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MO...WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
REACHING NRN VA/MD AND ERN PA/NY BY 12Z MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WILL TEND TO BE IN
VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN NM
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY/NORTH TX TO NRN PARTS OF MS/AL. THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO ENHANCEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING DAY 1 TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND OVERNIGHT MCS
ACTIVITY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL/ERN PA TO CENTRAL VA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS BY 12Z
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS TROUGH
WILL SPREAD SEWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT REACHING CENTRAL KS TO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A LEE CYCLONE TRACKS
FROM NRN CO TO CENTRAL KS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH OK/TX TO NRN MS/AL...
ASCENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTENDANT TO 1/ A COUPLE OF
MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING EWD ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN A BAND OF
40 KT WLY WINDS...AND 2/ WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. THIS ASCENT WITHIN A
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS AND 1.5-1.75 INCHES EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS TO SERN
STATES/ WILL SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG AND INVOF THE W-E BOUNDARY AND THE SRN AND ERN
PERIPHERIES OF ANY ONGOING MCS/S FROM LATE DAY 1 INTO DAY 2.
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT
WILL SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS AND SEMI-DISCRETE TO DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS TX/OK SUNDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO
THE AMPLIFYING CENTRAL ROCKIES TROUGH...WITHIN RESIDUALLY MOIST AND
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OR TWO
MCS/S DEVELOPING OK AND N TX INTO AR AND PERHAPS SRN MO AND THE
MID-SOUTH. SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES.

I was up at 1:30 when the storms rumbled through, although I can't say the storm is what awakened me. I think the power might have glitched, and something electronic "beeped," and that got me up. Anyway, heard the wind blow, turned on Payne on Ch 9 and their spotters were all over the SW 104th/SW89th area from about Western east long I-240 to around Sooner about the time of that big 80+ wind gust at WRWA. Don't know if it was a downburst or just a really angry storm, but at least my flowers survived :) They were definitely watching an area of rotation right along the leading/bowing edge that tracked along I-240 that varied in speed from around 60-80mph, but it was never sustained/low enough to warrant a warning. I do recall one of Payne's spotters getting a little concerned about a lowering once the storm hit the I-240/I-40 junction in eastern OK county, but obviously nothing significant came of it.

Given the rain we've had in the last week or so, I've got to say the yard around my house is as saturated as it's been in a LONG time. I was going to mow today but the ground is so soft I really think the mower would start to sink in places and just chop up the yard...and it sounds like more is on the way...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/mcd0878.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...FAR
NORTHERN TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071806Z - 072030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE
OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE LEADING EDGE OF SHALLOW
COOLER AIR -- 0.5-KM DEEP NLYS PER TLX VWP -- FROM FAR SW MO TO WRN
N TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL AS STRONG DIABATIC SFC HEATING
TO ITS S ERODES THE SRN FRINGES OF THE COOL AIR WITH LITTLE
REINFORCEMENT FROM LARGER-SCALE ISALLOBARIC FORCING/CONVECTION. WITH
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVING BREACHED 90F INVOF THE RED RIVER...A BROAD
ZONE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS IS SWELLING FROM WRN N TX TO NEAR
ARDMORE. SFC-BASED CONVECTION MAY BLOSSOM FROM THIS CU DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE BEING MAINTAINED/INTENSIFYING OWING TO
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE SLOPED FRONTAL SFC. ALSO...BAROCLINICITY
AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE SRN FRINGES OF MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDS FARTHER E INTO E-CNTRL OK AND W-CNTRL AR MAY FOSTER A SIMILAR
UPTICK IN CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OUN RAOB FOR THE AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY
SUGGEST MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE
INHIBITION...SUPPORTING INTENSE CONVECTION WITH SVR HAIL/DMGG WINDS
POSSIBLE. MODERATE BUOYANCY EXTENDS A COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES N OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES AMIDST MIDDLE/UPPER 60S
SFC DEWPOINTS...AND ISOLATED SVR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR N
AS THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR ENCOURAGED BY
35-40-KT WSWLYS SAMPLED BY THE TLX/FDR VWPS MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/07/2014

A couple storms in the metro area on either side of Noble right now moving ENE. Stronger storm back to the west between Gracemont and Anadarko.

I was up at 1:30 when the storms rumbled through, although I can't say the storm is what awakened me. I think the power might have glitched, and something electronic "beeped," and that got me up. Anyway, heard the wind blow, turned on Payne on Ch 9 and their spotters were all over the SW 104th/SW89th area from about Western east long I-240 to around Sooner about the time of that big 80+ wind gust at WRWA. Don't know if it was a downburst or just a really angry storm, but at least my flowers survived :) They were definitely watching an area of rotation right along the leading/bowing edge that tracked along I-240 that varied in speed from around 60-80mph, but it was never sustained/low enough to warrant a warning. I do recall one of Payne's spotters getting a little concerned about a lowering once the storm hit the I-240/I-40 junction in eastern OK county, but obviously nothing significant came of it.

Given the rain we've had in the last week or so, I've got to say the yard around my house is as saturated as it's been in a LONG time. I was going to mow today but the ground is so soft I really think the mower would start to sink in places and just chop up the yard...and it sounds like more is on the way...

A friend of mine captured this radar shot of the storm with a tiny little mesovortex just south of I-240 at that time, which could be responsible for the wind. I wish I'd been watching coverage, didn't think to do that.

Just southeast of Valley Brook in the upper righthand box.

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/t1.0-9/10406488_10152432875000851_9096060252295234251_n.j pg

How are the storm forecasts for SE Colorado, Texas panhandle, and western OK for Sunday and Monday?

How are the storm forecasts for SE Colorado, Texas panhandle, and western OK for Sunday and Monday?

Sunday - they are in the slight risk. Large hail and wind main threat, but like yesterday could get a tornado or two as well further west you are. Monday doesn't look bad...wave of storms still going like the past few days.

Few storms starting to get a bit grumpy in SW OK. Moving East.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/mcd0886.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 080006Z - 080230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT FORM THIS EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN OK INTO NWRN TX. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT AND A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AN AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND STRONG
INSTABILITY CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ERN NM EWD ACROSS SRN
OK...ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. DESPITE NLY SFC
WINDS...THE ROBUST MOISTURE CONTENT IS STILL ENOUGH TO WEAKEN CIN
GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL 700 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MODIFIED OUTFLOW
AIR.

LATER THIS EVENING...WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST N OF THE SFC
FRONT...IN ANTICIPATION OF AN MCS WHICH SHOULD CONGEAL ACROSS ERN NM
AND THE TX PANHANDLE/S PLAINS. THIS COULD CAUSE A BAND OF CELLS TO
FORM EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. THIS LIFT SHOULD BE MOST EVIDENT JUST PRIOR TO MCS
ARRIVAL...WITH NRN END POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS I-40 TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...IF THE WEAK STORMS OVER SRN OK/NRN TX CAN SHOW
EVIDENCE OF BECOMING SUPERCELLS...A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED EARLIER.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 06/08/2014

Severe thunderstorm watch 258 is in effect until 400 am cdt
for the following locations

okc009-013-015-019-031-033-049-051-055-057-065-067-069-075-085-
095-099-123-137-141-149-080900-
/o.new.kwns.sv.a.0258.140608t0115z-140608t0900z/

ok
. Oklahoma counties included are

beckham bryan caddo
carter comanche cotton
garvin grady greer
harmon jackson jefferson
johnston kiowa love
marshall murray pontotoc
stephens tillman wa****a

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0258_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
815 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DURANT
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 252 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0252.html)...WW 253 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0253.html)...WW
254 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0254.html)...WW 255 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0255.html)...WW 256 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0256.html)...WW 257 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0257.html)...

DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
POSSIBLY STRENGTH ALONG AND N OF SLOWLY-MOVING W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
NEAR THE RED RVR. COMBINATION OF APPRECIABLE CAPE...RICH
MOISTURE...AND 25-30 KT WNWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS/MODEST SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.

The national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Southeastern mcclain county in central oklahoma...
Northeastern garvin county in southern oklahoma...
Southeastern cleveland county in central oklahoma...
Northwestern pontotoc county in east central oklahoma...
Southwestern pottawatomie county in central oklahoma...

* until 1100 pm cdt

* at 1013 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
paoli...moving northeast at 25 mph.

Hazard...two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

Watch extended to include Pottawatomie County

Up to nickle hail moving through south Norman with the storm.

A couple stones up to ping pong balls in Norman. OUN sleeping at the wheel tonight on their warning. Sigh.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 200 AM CDT


* AT 136 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
NORMAN AND NOBLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.


HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.


SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS.

At 1:41 AM, 2 SE Norman [Cleveland Co, OK] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HAIL of egg size (E2.00 INCH)

Looking at the radar I just can't believe how big this storm system is!

Aaargh..."ridge of death" anytime now, ffs.

Aaargh..."ridge of death" anytime now, ffs.

No signs of it showing up in the GFS through the 24th of June. We will warm up though by the middle of the month into the mid 90s, but the ridge isn't developing yet that would lock us in to a prolonged hot/dry period.