The frontal boundaries responsible for the onslaught of MCSs in the northern plains the last few days will keep sagging south. Eventually parking over OK/KS. With this, pieces of energy will spark off complexes of showers and storms over the next week+.

Here is the projected rain amounts over the next 7 days:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif


Yes that is over 10 inches in SW MO and 5+ inches over much of OK.

This is pretty rare event this far south at this time, relatively speaking. With the slow crawler system 2 weeks ago, and now this stalled front swinging down - this has been a very strange Spring-Summer transition.

The frontal boundaries responsible for the onslaught of MCSs in the northern plains the last few days will keep sagging south. Eventually parking over OK/KS. With this, pieces of energy will spark off complexes of showers and storms over the next week+.

Here is the projected rain amounts over the next 7 days:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif


Yes that is over 10 inches in SW MO and 5+ inches over much of OK.

This is pretty rare event this far south at this time, relatively speaking. With the slow crawler system 2 weeks ago, and now this stalled front swinging down - this has been a very strange Spring-Summer transition.

Will the rain be here by this weekend?

Need to go from Dallas to Okc either Saturday or Sunday. Which day looks to be the best for travel.

Need to go from Dallas to Okc either Saturday or Sunday. Which day looks to be the best for travel.

Neither really look great...though Saturday precip may be a bit later in the day but Sunday might be all day.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0224_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 221 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0221.html)...WW 222 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0222.html)...WW 223 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0223.html)...

DISCUSSION...ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR THROUGH EARLY THU IN MOIST...WEAKLY
CONFLUENT SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW BENEATH DEEP/STRONG EML. LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL ...WLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A
SPLITTING STORM OR TWO IF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS TO INDEED DEVELOP.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28020.


...CORFIDI

Thanks Venture. We will plan on Saturday afternoon and hope for the best.

Sounding for next Wednesday... the temp and dewpoint spread is pretty high, but the rest of the parameters look interesting if this even materializes. I think our storm season is finally showing up.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_GFS_168_35.29,-97.43_skewt_ML.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/00_GFS_168_35.29,-97.43_hodo.gif

Upgrade to Moderate Risk has taken place for extreme NE OK today through AR and S MO. On going severe MCS is moving through NE OK this morning.

Slight Risk today is north of a line from Hobart - Chickasha - Purcell - McAlester - Talihina. Includes the OKC metro.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
FAR SERN KS...FAR NERN OK...SRN MO...NRN AR AND WRN TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
MID SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SOUTHERN PARTS OF MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A QUASI-ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
CONUS TO THE N OF AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NWRN MEXICO
INTO TX. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A MULTI-STREAM
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...AND MID SOUTH. FARTHER W...A NUMBER
OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE WRN STATES
TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...A MIGRATORY LOW JUST OFF THE NJ COAST WILL DEVELOP
NEWD WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES SWD THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE TN VALLEY TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN
OK...THOUGH SOME FLUCTUATION OF ITS POSITION WILL OCCUR DUE TO
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING TSTMS. ELSEWHERE...A
TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN BEFORE
STALLING. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

...OZARK PLATEAU TO MID SOUTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...

AN INTENSE MCS COMPRISED OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES IS IN
PROGRESS AS OF 12Z OVER ERN KS WITH AN OBSERVED SYSTEM MOTION OF
290/45 KT. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS MCS IS SITUATED ON
THE NERN FRINGE OF A STRONG CAP SITUATED AT THE BASE OF THE EML
WHICH WILL LIMIT A SWWD EXPANSION OF STORMS TODAY. LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT THIS BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS SRN MO/NRN
AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS ALONG THE STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN THE
WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL...40-50+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND
THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF A VERY MOIST AND MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE MCS TRACK. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 833.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF KS/OK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THE MAINTENANCE OF AN ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME AND THE
POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE-CRESTING VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED
TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CO
FRONT RANGE...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE RATON MESA. SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...STORMS WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPE WILL
APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
VEERING TO WLY AT 40-50 KT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE...THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

AMALGAMATING STORM-SCALE OUTFLOWS MAY PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH OF
STORMS INTO AN EWD/SEWD-MOVING MCS TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KS/OK ALONG THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW-SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS MCS. THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS APPEAR TO BE WEAK
WAA...CONVERGENCE INVOF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT...AND
STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING OVER WRN OK. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND
BECOME SUSTAINED...THE OVERLAP OF A MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS /MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J PER KG/ AND 50-60+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO
REMAINS HIGH...THEREFORE BASELINE-SLIGHT-RISK PROBABILITIES WILL BE
MAINTAINED.

First of many MCSs to blast through here is up in NE OK right now, trying to back build SW towards C OK, but looks like it is moving too fast for anything significant.

Bring on the rain!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0833.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO MUCH OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN
MO AND NORTHERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0227.html)...228 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0228.html)...

VALID 051240Z - 051445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
227...228...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...IN ADDITION TO SOME
SEVERE HAIL...WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK
INTO MUCH OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 227/228 CONTINUE UNTIL 15Z/18Z RESPECTIVELY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED
ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SOUTHERN /AND POSSIBLY WESTERN/ MO AND
NORTHERN AR.

A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WILL OCCUR WITH THE 13Z
UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...A VERY WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS/MUCH OF NORTHEAST OK
INTO SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR THIS MORNING. THIS MCS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A NOTABLE SURFACE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET WHILE THRIVING IN
A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR/NORTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MCS IS ALSO LIKELY BE AIDED BY AN MCV/REAR INFLOW
JET WITH 50+ KT WINDS AS LOW AS 4KM AGL AS PER THE WICHITA WSR-88D
VWP. WARM SECTOR MLCAPE IS AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST
OK/SOUTHWEST MO INTO AR...WHICH WILL BE INCREASINGLY REALIZED AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WITH A RELATIVELY MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT
ALREADY IN PLACE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F/...EARLY DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE MCS-PRECEDING AIR MASS WILL INDEED
STEADILY HEAT THROUGH THE MORNING FROM FAR EASTERN OK INTO
AR/SOUTHERN MO.

FARTHER NORTH...AS THE MCS CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AN ASYMMETRIC SQUALL
LINE-TYPE EVOLUTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTH-SIDE COMMA HEAD
VORTICES CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE MAY INCREASE POTENTIALLY AS FAR
NORTH AS ROUGHLY THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A 53 KT GUST WAS RECENTLY
MEASURED AT SALINA KS AS OF AROUND 1210Z. ADDITIONALLY...WAKE LOW
RELATED WINDS TO SEVERE-CALIBER LEVELS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN ACCORDANCE
WITH PRONOUNCED PRESSURE FALLS /8-9MB PER 2HR FALLS/ ACROSS CENTRAL
KS WITH MCS-TRAILING EASTERLY WINDS.

..GUYER.. 06/05/2014

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0228_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 630 AM UNTIL
100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF
PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONETT MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 226 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0226.html)...WW 227 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0227.html)...

DISCUSSION...A FAST-MOVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE RISK THIS MORNING AS IT
CONTINUES TO SPREAD GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THIS MCS VIA WARM/MOIST
ADVECTIONS FOCUSED TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
ANGLES ROUGHLY WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30045.

Day 2 Slight Risk covers much of the same area as today...all but mostly Southern OK. It includes the Metro - mostly.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY
WITH UPPER PATTERN REMAINING QUASI-ZONAL PROGRESSIVE. SEVERAL LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THIS FLOW REGIME
INCLUDING THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE A MEANDERING
BOUNDARY /AT TIMES REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/ WILL LINGER.

...KS...OK THROUGH LOWER MS AND TN VALLEY...

UNCERTAINTIES LINGER REGARDING WHERE MCS BOUNDARIES WILL BE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE IN WARM SECTOR AND IN VICINITY OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SUPPORTED BY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS BENEATH PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED AS
MODERATE WLY FLOW MAINTAINS WARM AIR ALOFT AT BASE OF EML PLUME.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARIES...AUGMENTED BY MIGRATORY IMPULSES ALOFT WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM KS INTO
OK EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. STORMS MAY
BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR IS ADVECTED
INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS. MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT IN PROXIMITY TO AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /40-50 KT/ FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LEWP/BOW
ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH MCS ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

Day 3 Slight Risk for nearly all of Oklahoma except a small part of NW/NC OK.


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...SYNOPSIS...

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME WITH PROGRESSIVE...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER MUCH OF U.S. ON
SATURDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS
EWD INTO THE MS LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW ON THE
FRONT WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT
ENEWD THROUGH THE MS AND WRN TN VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
WAVE.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS AREAS...

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SHIFTING FARTHER SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY IN WARM SECTOR AS WELL
AS IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN WAKE
OF MORNING STORMS ACROSS KS...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD EWD WITHIN EVOLVING ELY UPSLOPE
REGIME FROM NM INTO SERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER IMPULSE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD...AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS SUPPORTED BY AN INTENSIFYING LLJ. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. THESE STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SPC seems to be jumping the trigger on the risk upgrades. Couple days ago upgraded to HIGH over the incorrect area, and today upgraded to MODERATE in advance of a squall line that has lost its umph.

So the main chance for rain is Sunday? Is this going to be just rain or do we need to be on the watch for hail/etc?

So the main chance for rain is Sunday? Is this going to be just rain or do we need to be on the watch for hail/etc?

Severe weather risk each day.

Right now the main threats look like damaging winds and hail to golf balls, correct? Is there much of a tornado risk this weekend?

SPC seems to be jumping the trigger on the risk upgrades. Couple days ago upgraded to HIGH over the incorrect area, and today upgraded to MODERATE in advance of a squall line that has lost its umph.

Yeah I'm not sure what is going on with them and their risk upgrades this year.

Right now the main threats look like damaging winds and hail to golf balls, correct? Is there much of a tornado risk this weekend?

Just go about your business as normal bud...

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S5

Main area to watch for the state today is the region of congested cumulus over parts of northern Oklahoma. Could see development from that later in the day... As well as along the remnant outflow boundary over central Oklahoma from the morning mcs.

Man oh man...the clouds were sooooo AWESOME this morning over OKC and the temps were so pleasant. Then I think somebody sneezed and the clouds were gone.

HRRR showing MCS developing over southeast Colorado and the western panhandle around 6pm tonight and will move along the boundary. Complex will race east and impact the metro by 11pm to midnight. Expect main risk to be damaging winds.

Venture, can you please post the HRRR graphic of the MCS Thanks..

Looks like a couple echos trying to go up W of OKC right now.

Venture, can you please post the HRRR graphic of the MCS Thanks..

I'm not venture, but here ya go.

Simulated 1km reflectivity (radar) for midnight - 4am:

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014060517/t5/1ref_t5sfc_f12.png

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014060517/t5/1ref_t5sfc_f13.png

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014060517/t5/1ref_t5sfc_f14.png

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014060517/t5/1ref_t5sfc_f15.png

Looks like a pretty pewney MCS to me. Not like the big ones they have been having up north of us. Not much red in it mostly yellow and orange intensity :-(

Looks like a pretty pewney MCS to me. Not like the big ones they have been having up north of us.

Could be, but keep in mind that that is a simulated radar from a model toward the end of its reliable(ish) time frame. Very often the values of reflectivity are different (and often much higher) in reality than shown in the model... the general evolution is a much better take-away.

Case in point: forecast 10 m wind gusts. Looks like a band of 40-60+ kts along the leading edge of the MCS (50-70mph). So not the 80-100mph gusts up in Nebraska and Kansas, but nothing to scoff at either.

Edited to add: That little blob of pink west of the metro is actually 80-90mph. We'll see if this comes to fruition, but it seems to be hinting at at least something moderately damaging.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014060517/t5/gust_t510m_f13.png

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014060517/t5/gust_t510m_f14.png

I'm at work so thank loco for covering. Lol

SPC is so far off their game this week that it is difficult to comprehend.

They are still issuing watches and MODERATE risks for that ho-hum squall line. While there is multiple tornado warned supercells chugging along in ND, SD, NE, and IA - which this area is not even under a watch or even a SLIGHT risk today.

My mind is blown.

Anyway, thrilling that channel 4's Mike Morgan estimates that Stillwater will get one of the heaviest soakings from this rainy spell with 4.5". Tulsa, so far, comes in heaviest with 4.61". Not a good time, though, to strive to be no. 1 for downpours with super regional baseball games in Stillwater.

Hey all,

Just an aside here. I absolutely love what you all are doing here giving us detailed weather info. Do you know if a similar blog exists for DFW or North Texas weather?

Could be an interesting setup tonight. I think HRRR is about an hour early on things, but some of the items are coming together.

First feature will be the MCS. The initial stages are slow to come together with some isolated severe storms in SE CO. These should increase and form up into a cluster. These will be joined by new development in the TX PH that models keep hinting at. These storms would be the main body of the MCS as it hauls east tonight.

Another interesting development could be storms from NE to W OK just north of Tulsa-OKC-Watonga line. These could make for an interesting interaction with an eastward racing MCS.

Of course right now it is pretty quiet...so this is really dependent on things popping.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRRsubh/for_web/hrrr_subh_jet/2014060522/t5/1ref15min_t5sfc_f0915.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0847.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0847
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0914 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 060214Z - 060445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CELLS ARE FORMING NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NERN
OK AND JUST N OF THE FRONT INTO SWRN MO AND NWRN AR. VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS IN THIS CORRIDOR...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
INCREASED TO OVER 1.50 INCHES. THE 00Z LMN SOUNDING SHOWED 4000 J/KG
MLCAPE ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WLY FLOW ALOFT FOR LONG LIVED HAIL
STORMS. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENING HAS NEARLY ERODED THE
CAP.

ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...THE ROBUST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS FAVORABLE SHEAR SHOULD ACT ON THE DEVELOPING
STORMS AND OVER TIME COULD RESULT IN SEVERE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN SUCH INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME...THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 06/06/2014

The national weather service in tulsa has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Nowata county in northeast oklahoma...
North central rogers county in northeast oklahoma...
Washington county in northeast oklahoma...

* until 1000 pm cdt

First watch of the night is out.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 236 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC007-015-087-143-061000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0236.140606T0240Z-140606T1000Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON CARROLL MADISON
WASHINGTON


MOC009-119-145-209-061000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0236.140606T0240Z-140606T1000Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARRY MCDONALD NEWTON
STONE


OKC001-003-021-035-037-041-047-053-071-093-097-103-105-113-115-
117-119-131-143-145-147-061000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0236.140606T0240Z-140606T1000Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR ALFALFA CHEROKEE
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARFIELD GRANT KAY
MAJOR MAYES NOBLE
NOWATA OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS
TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON

Thanks guys, I have concrete scheduled for 11 AM tomorrow. Weather is very important to me. Keep up the good work.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0236_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 940 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONETT
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 233 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0233.html)...WW 235 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0235.html)...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING ALONG AND JUST N OF STALLED W-E FRONT
MAY INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE AS MOIST...SLY 0-1 KM FLOW
NOCTURNALLY VEERS AND SOMEWHAT STRENGTHENS. GIVEN DEGREE OF
POTENTIAL BUOYANCY ON AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS...AND PRESENCE OF MODERATE
WLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP COULD YIELD OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS AND
OTHER SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...SVR WIND
GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. STORMS SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO
MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD AND MERGE INTO A BROKEN BAND WITH
TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME BACK-BUILDING/WWD DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS WELL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.

Or for relief from seeing the watch shouted in all caps:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Updated: Thu Jun-05-14 09:40pm CDT
Effective: Thu Jun-05-14 09:40pm CDT
Expires: Fri Jun-06-14 05:00am CDT
Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely
Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Adair; Alfalfa; Cherokee; Craig; Creek; Delaware; Garfield; Grant; Kay; Major; Mayes; Noble; Nowata; Osage; Ottawa; Pawnee; Payne; Rogers; Tulsa; Wagoner; Washington

Message summary: Severe thunderstorm watch 236 is in effect until 500 am cdt for the following locations ok. Oklahoma counties included are adair, alfalfa, cherokee, craig, creek, delaware, garfield, grant, kay, major, mayes, noble, nowata, osage, ottawa, pawnee, payne, rogers, tulsa, wagoner, washington.

http://stillwaterweather.com/SWSPdata/MapPlot1402022558.png

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BpaoWjzCUAAKMfv.png

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/june14/5-1.png

Pawnee County storm needs to be watched for a quick spin up.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/june14/5-2.png

Anon and myself are in the chat room now, FYI. Feel free to jump in. :)

Storm is now Tornado warned.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT


* AT 1036 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF SOONER LAKE...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

Look out N of Tulsa area. Those new cells are already rotating. Heading south.

Latest projected totals over the next 7 days: (most of this will fall in the next 3-4 days)

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0848.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM...OK AND TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 060449Z - 060645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM SERN CO INTO TX. A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IF STORM
COVERAGE BEGINS TO INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE HAIL AND WIND HAS BEEN SCATTERED ACROSS MUCH OF
ERN CO THIS EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE STORMS DYING ACROSS THE FAR
ERN COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER. RECENTLY...A SEVERE
STORM WAS ENTERING WRN KIOWA COUNTY CO BUT THE SAME DEMISE IS
EXPECTED AS ITS PREDECESSORS.

TO THE S...STORM ACTIVITY HAS QUIETED FOR THE MOMENT...BUT STRONG
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN AN AXIS FROM ERN NM EWD ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE AND INTO WRN OK. THIS IS ALSO WHERE A BOUNDARY LIES...WITH
NELY 850 MB WINDS AT AMA AND SSELY 850 MB WINDS AT LBB PER VWPS.

WITH SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...ANY DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
RAPIDLY...AND A WATCH WOULD BE LIKELY IF THIS OCCURS. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE EXPECTED.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 06/06/2014

TX Panhandle is going up fast now. I need to get some sleep before work though. Will update if possible.

Yup. This will be our main MCS. Erupting out there!

NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES OKLAHOMA CITY:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Payne (Oklahoma)
Updated: Fri Jun-06-14 01:45am CDT
Effective: Fri Jun-06-14 01:45am CDT
Expires: Fri Jun-06-14 08:00am CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Beckham; Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Cleveland; Comanche; Custer; Dewey; Garfield; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Jackson; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Logan; Major; McClain; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Roger Mills; Wa****a

Message summary: Severe thunderstorm watch 237 is in effect until 800 am cdt for the following locations ok . Oklahoma counties included are alfalfa beckham blaine caddo canadian cleveland comanche custer dewey garfield grady grant greer harmon jackson kay kingfisher kiowa logan major mcclain noble oklahoma payne roger mills wash ita

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0237_radar.gif

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

Two warnings right now in the Metro...

AT 559 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EL RENO...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.


HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 645 AM CDT


* AT 605 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
FORT COBB...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.


HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

How much rain are we looking at?

Radar estimates have it around a half inch to an inch typically with these storms. Some areas more...some less.

Thank you :)

It would be a neat feature on radar if they could put estimated totals in, instead of just "red is scary" and "green is a sprinkle."

Local watch extension...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 237 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS
MORNING

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

LINCOLN POTTAWATOMIE

IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

GARVIN STEPHENS

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHANDLER...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY AND SHAWNEE.

New warning for the southern half of the MCS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN GARVIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
STEPHENS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 730 AM CDT


* AT 639 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF TABLER TO 4 MILES WEST OF MARLOW TO
NEAR COOKIETOWN...MOVING EAST AT 45 TO 55 MPH.


HAZARD...60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

Warning for the Northern half of the MCS, including nearly the entire Metro area...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 730 AM CDT


* AT 643 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF EDMOND TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY TO
NEAR TABLER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.


HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

Area of most significant wind is going to be north of Mustang along I-40 to the west of I-44.

Winds starting to pick up along the line now from NW Cleveland County to Newcastle - Blanchard - Dibble.

Very photogenic shelf cloud being reported with this.

Warning for the part of the MCS north of Guthrie...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN PAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 730 AM CDT


* AT 650 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR VANCE AIR FORCE BASE TO 5 MILES EAST OF BISON
TO 5 MILES EAST OF DOVER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.


HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.